Two Things that Will Not Happen this Offseason

[HighPitch]

6 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Completely agree they aren't taking a QB. Probably aren't taking a QB in 2025 either.

Trade down feels unlikely but not impossible. If we're picking 5th, for instance, and the Raiders and Falcons are both interested in Jayden Daniels I could see us dropping 3-5 spots and taking whatever OT is still there.

that is the point i slit my wrists

[FTL Jet Fan]

I have to agree with the OP no time to be cute if a top OT prospect is available. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of are highly rated players is traded for another pick. Unfortunately we will find a way to win a game or two to screw our draft position.

[Skeet Ulrich]

6 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Man, this team is a mess.

 

 

No present, no future. Aside from the Panthers, I can't imagine a team with a worse long term outlook.

 

[Jetsplayer21]

If you had told me the jets absolutely will take a Offensive player in the first round last year, I would have said “ no duh the offense was a disaster last yr, D is strong, we need to add some pieces around AR immediately. I would have assumed you were completely joking if you had said it was a possibility JD would take a DL for extra extra depth lol. 
 

Point is, JD and organization does NOTHING that is normal, predictable, logical, etc. You say no way AR would be on board for them drafting a qb. He couldn’t have been on board with them drafting McDonald either. 

Lastly, 1 OL pick in first round is not going to suddenly change the horror show OL conditions of past 2 years. If they are really serious about trying to bring the offense to a respectable level, they are going to have to trade value on defense. Only way. Otherwise once again they would be foolish to think Aaron rodgers is going to be magic man at 40 and take 1 or the worst offenses in NFL history and make it into gold.

[THE BARON]

If JD trades down with his number one pick AND Joe Alt is still available, I insist he be fired on the spot. 

They need to get one of the FA tackles that will be available and they need to draft Joe Alt as well.

AND, between FA and the draft, they also need to come away with at least one new QUALITY starter for the inside of the line.

If they do not start the 2024 season with three new quality starters on the offensive line, it will be the harbinger of death for the 2024 season.

Book it. 

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

first off jj and penix are going round 1. Thats 100% Youve been playing too much early pfn mock draft simulator

The "top 3" qbs are debatable. qb #4 might be the best who knows

Fuaga might be the best OT in this draft. again, you never know. opinions differ and the draft is a regulated crap shoot in that who knows how qbs 1234 will turn out but its a safe bet they will all be better than qb12

Yes, the draft is a crapshoot, and yes, it's very early (as I said). 

Yes, results wise, Mr. Irrelevant could be the best QB.  That's not really what's being discussed here tho.

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

Things the Jets will get this offseason:

1. New uniforms (probably the 80s throwbacks from week 1)
2. Grass at MetLife

[NYDreamer]

I've convinced myself to no longer predict what our Jets team should do for long term future success.

I think about how this offensive line would have been if we selected Sewell the year after Becton instead of draft Z Wilson and kept Darnold.  That line at that time could have been Becton, Sewell and AVT.

[Saul Goodman]

Unfortunate because I like all 3 of the top quarterbacks. I’d guess that 2 of the 3 will become FQB’s.

Maybe we finally get lucky with a mid/late round quarterback 😂

[Saul Goodman]

21 minutes ago, NYDreamer said:

I've convinced myself to no longer predict what our Jets team should do for long term future success.

I think about how this offensive line would have been if we selected Sewell the year after Becton instead of draft Z Wilson and kept Darnold.  That line at that time could have been Becton, Sewell and AVT.

Wirfs, Sewell and AVT would’ve been even better. 

[NYDreamer]

On 12/20/2023 at 12:53 PM, Saul Goodman said:

Wirfs, Sewell and AVT would’ve been even better. 

100% and a guy like Bill Callihan coaching them.  

This team needs to find players in the mid rounds like Randy Thomas, Jason Fabini, free agent Kevin Mawae who can become players.  The proper coaching and development is essential.  To be fair our coaches are doing a great job developing our defensive players.  We need to have that on offense.

[Maynard13]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

Very flawed argument. First, there is no conclusive spot yet to be determined as when we pick. We could still pick at 5. Secondly, we could STILL trade back and be able to land QB Daniels. And there are tons of very good tackles in this draft, even if we grab one in round 2 with a trade back. Or they could even take a guard and sign a FA to play tackle. Regardless, JD will need to get a FA tackle which he WILL do.  And they need a guard to replace Tomlinson who sucks azz.  They more than likely will resign Becton to play RT. There are a lot of different scenarios JD can use. It's not an absolute diagram to take the best T at 5 or 6 or 7. Possible OL picks in round 2 or 3 WHICH are very good prospects:  Donovan Jackson G, Jordan Morgan T, Patrick Paul T, Tyler Guyton T, Kiran Amedgadejie, Sedrick Van pan C, Jackson Powers G. These guys are ALL graded highly not far behind the 1st round OL players.  There is no absolute determination that a 1st round T would even hit the floor running. Most need time to readjust to the speed and quality of the NFL.  A 2nd round T makes a world of more sense since we could get our QB of the future.  Baktahri at LT, Becton on RT and draft a T with round 2 pick to groom.  Picking Daniels would be SMART. He could sit behind Rodgers for a couple years and not be rushed.  JD has a two fold job - fix the OL BUT also plan for the future regardless of fixing the OL.  Probably beyond his IQ.  Both can be accomplished with a little ingenuity and some cajones.  JD really screwed up the Rodgers trade and picking McDuck last year.  It was just dumb and dumber on his part.  he needs to hit a grand slam this next draft/FA signings.

[Origen]

What OT's are going to be FA's this year?  Can we just hire someone who is already good?

[peekskill68]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

The other place I'll disagree is Zach's trade value.  For one, I seriously think JD will consider (strongly consider) bringing him back for year 4 as the #3.  If he doesn't, Zach's value is minimal, no one is giving premium picks for what Zach has shown this league, a 5th or 6th perhaps, but nothing of real value.

Fans watching weeks/years of constant suck always misgauge what others will pay for their trash.  Team Wilson will help JD with the marketing and you'll be surprised what the Jets get in return when they trade him.  If Lance was worth a 4th to the Cowboys, some team will pay MORE for the right to fix Wilson...

[Plen T]

Could’ve had JSN or Addison year 2

and now an OL to take

now you’re screwed at one position 

just idiotic move from Bobby Boy

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Very flawed argument.

Always a possibility, that why I posted it, to spark conversation and debate

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

First, there is no conclusive spot yet to be determined as when we pick. We could still pick at 5.

There is a conclusive range of where we can pick, and where we are likely to pick, but yes, the final spot remains TBD.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Secondly, we could STILL trade back and be able to land QB Daniels.

I doubt it.  And I very strongly doubt JD would make that selection regardless.

You'd have to make a VERY compelling argument for why JD, of all people, is going to pick a QB in a "win or get fired" season, and how that QB supports that situation.  Short-timers rarely think long-term best interests.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

And there are tons of very good tackles in this draft, even if we grab one in round 2 with a trade back.

I'm sure, but there are not "tons" of top-end blue chip Tackle prospects.  Right now, there are about 3.

Now, as noted, the draft IS a crapshoot, and some lesser talents/prospects will be HOF'ers and 1, 2 or all 3 blue chippers might bust.

But if you think you're locking down the Tackle spot with any level of certainty with a 2nd rounder?  That's optimism I guess.

Also, we don't have a 2nd rounder at current, so that would need addressed too.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Or they could even take a guard and sign a FA to play tackle.

Addressed in the OP, more cost-off Green Bay Rodgers-friends isn't a viable solution, albeit it has a much higher odds of happening than some other things do. 

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Regardless, JD will need to get a FA tackle which he WILL do.  And they need a guard to replace Tomlinson who sucks azz.

Agreed on both counts.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

 They more than likely will resign Becton to play RT.

That would be appalling given his time here so far.  Absolutely pathetic IMO.  

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

It's not an absolute diagram to take the best T at 5 or 6 or 7.

I'm arguing it should be.  

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Possible OL picks in round 2 or 3 WHICH are very good prospects:  Donovan Jackson G, Jordan Morgan T, Patrick Paul T, Tyler Guyton T, Kiran Amedgadejie, Sedrick Van pan C, Jackson Powers G. These guys are ALL graded highly not far behind the 1st round OL players.

We don't have a 2nd.  And they're not equivalents to the top prospects, albeit (as said above) some might turn out better, but at higher odds of picking the right one the deeper we go.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

  There is no absolute determination that a 1st round T would even hit the floor running.

That's Rodgers argument, the one he'll assuredly use to try and lure in some old friends from Green Bay.  Like he did with Cobb.

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Most need time to readjust to the speed and quality of the NFL.  A 2nd round T makes a world of more sense since we could get our QB of the future.  Baktahri at LT, Becton on RT and draft a T with round 2 pick to groom.

So just to be clear then:  We're sitting on the clock, with one or more of the top 3 tackles on the board, and you're decision as GM is to trade down to get a 2nd (presuming someone is willing to do it) and take your OT in the 2nd or 3rd, is that right?

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Picking Daniels would be SMART. He could sit behind Rodgers for a couple years and not be rushed.  JD has a two fold job - fix the OL BUT also plan for the future regardless of fixing the OL.  Probably beyond his IQ.

Pre-Rodgers I think he might have been smart enough to do it.  He wasn't great at making picks, but they did seem like longer-term thinking type picks.

Now, on a "win now or else" final year of his contract?  No chance in hell.  He already did that last year with MacDonald, who contributed near on nothing meaningful this year.  

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

JD really screwed up the Rodgers trade and picking McDuck last year.  It was just dumb and dumber on his part.  he needs to hit a grand slam this next draft/FA signings.

Agreed!

[Plen T]

12 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Fans watching weeks/years of constant suck always misgauge what others will pay for their trash.  Team Wilson will help JD with the marketing and you'll be surprised what the Jets get in return when they trade him.  If Lance was worth a 4th to the Cowboys, some team will pay MORE for the right to fix Wilson...

Zach will go for a 3 minimum 

the ineptitude of the team being worse when he doesn’t play only boosts his trade value and adds credence that the Jets are indeed not run an like NFL team

[peekskill68]

15 minutes ago, Origen said:

What OT's are going to be FA's this year?  Can we just hire someone who is already good?

Fant is a UFA and, sad to say, would be an upgrade to anything we've trotted out there this year...

[freestater]

If Marvin Harrison Jr falls to you in the draft, you take him

[JiFtheOracle]

I dont disagree w/ the premise but, lots can change between now and then and you dont know who the late first round QB's will be.  Lamar Jackson was picked 32nd, so it's possible if they found a suiter to trade back they could still take a QB.  I doubt it for the reason you mentioned, but they could hypothetically. 

Also, the T position is actually quite easy to fill, the Jets have just sucked at it since DBrick.  The position isnt really a top 5 pick type of priority  anymore either.  The last top 5 T was Andrew Thomas who is meh and before him Greg Robinson in 2014 and he was a mega bust.  You can find them all over the draft and is consistently the position that is drafted the most each year.  So there is always an abundance out there, for some reason JD just sucks a finding one.  Truthfully, the T position has very much come more scheme/need dependent vs. talent...like this year, Paris Johnson, Darnell Wright, Peter Skornoski, Broderick Jones...you're pull hairs and drafting on scheme fit strengths vs. this dude is definitively better than this dude and they were all drafted right around where the Jets are projected.  I think you're also pulling hairs to tell me who is better right now.  Hell, I'd argue Dwand Jones was the best rookie OT before his injury and he was a 5th rounder.

 

 

[shawn306]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

I could see a trade down if someone is desperate for a guy that the Jets don’t covet and that team is willing to throw in a few extra picks. Maybe drop down a slot or two if they feel they can still get their guy and pick up an extra pick.

My thoughts are Oline, WR and more Oline

[Beerfish]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

Agree, have been saying it for ages, same thing.   The Jets will draft a QB in the later rounds to be #3 guy.  No chance they draft one high, ZERO chance.  If they blunder into a top end QB someone wants bad they might trade down a few spots.

They will win another game or two to screw the draft position as they always do.

[jamesr]

Most of what you say makes logical sense.
JD still can't and won't to it.  He'll have to 'reach' a little on the best OT at whatever spot we're in (and to be clear, where we look like we'll end up there will be an OT who isn't much of a reach at that spot IMO).
He cannot be seen passing on a top OT.  He simply can't, not the way his hand-crafted O-line has played the last few years.  If he does, and his "look how smart I am, I got a extra 5th!" move doesn't work out perfectly, he's done as a GM in this league (and so is Rodgers if he's getting pounded game in and game out).
One place I will disagree is Becton.  There will be no contract offered to Becton, he's gone.  A huge bust of a player, there is no argument to bring him back just to hope he stays healthy, or hope he doesn't suck like he did Sunday.  He likely doesn't want to be back either, despite his liking Rodgers.  You cannot put ANY faith in Becton at this point except as maybe a deep backup, and even then, again, watch his play Sunday.  It was atrocious.
Yes, FA is huge, if JD is his lack of wisdom thinks he can backfill the line with a few more Green Bay castoffs and Rodgers friends and family plan, that might change things, but by god how stupid would that be?  He'd be sealing his own fate as a bust GM if he does that.  It's Cook/Cobb all over again, but worse.  
The other place I'll disagree is Zach's trade value.  For one, I seriously think JD will consider (strongly consider) bringing him back for year 4 as the #3.  If he doesn't, Zach's value is minimal, no one is giving premium picks for what Zach has shown this league, a 5th or 6th perhaps, but nothing of real value.

The situation with Becton scares me to a degree.

We know we need one new tackle in the off-season at a minimum. If we opt out of Becton we then need two. You won't get to sign two new starter level tackles in FA. One will be hard enough. So letting Becton walk means you are pretty much locking in on OT in round one - wherever we draft and whoever is available. GMs don't like being in that situation, and JD definitely does not.

This is why I think they will re-sign Becton in some capacity. Not sure it'll be a long term deal, and of course he's under no obligation to sign. I fear we end up overpaying as a result.

I don't want us to re-sign him, based on how bad he's looked this year plus the injury risk. I just don't see the team heading into the off-season with zero starters at the position.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, Origen said:

What OT's are going to be FA's this year?  Can we just hire someone who is already good?

Most years are bad for ots and any  good ones never get to the jets, this coming crop is lousy.  We are not solving anything by ot fa tackle imo.

 

[FootballLove]

Draft is too much of a crap shoot NOT to trade down for extra darts.

[Claymation]

4 hours ago, JetPotato said:

It's true. Why would anyone want to take a QB in the top 10 in an extremely good QB draft when you can wait until next year to get one in the 14-18 range of a draft that isn't? QBs grow on trees. You can find one anywhere, as we know from the Jets history of success with that position.

Jets.

Finding ways to make historically bad mistakes every offseason.

That's one way to look at it, another is to wait until the 3rd day before taking a QB. The results will probably the same anyway.

[JetPotato]

21 minutes ago, Claymation said:

That's one way to look at it, another is to wait until the 3rd day before taking a QB. The results will probably the same anyway.

Not for a competent football organization. So yeah, you may be right. 

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, Claymation said:

That's one way to look at it, another is to wait until the 3rd day before taking a QB. The results will probably the same anyway.

I'm willing to bet that (late round QB or UDFA QB) is what JD does.

[Maynard13]

55 minutes ago, jamesr said:

The situation with Becton scares me to a degree.

We know we need one new tackle in the off-season at a minimum. If we opt out of Becton we then need two. You won't get to sign two new starter level tackles in FA. One will be hard enough. So letting Becton walk means you are pretty much locking in on OT in round one - wherever we draft and whoever is available. GMs don't like being in that situation, and JD definitely does not.

This is why I think they will re-sign Becton in some capacity. Not sure it'll be a long term deal, and of course he's under no obligation to sign. I fear we end up overpaying as a result.

I don't want us to re-sign him, based on how bad he's looked this year plus the injury risk. I just don't see the team heading into the off-season with zero starters at the position.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Yes I think JD resigns Becton for the reasons you stated, even Becton knows as much - but - to how many years. He'd want a new phat contract with at least 2-3 years which someone else may give him. If you let him walk, as you stated, JD would have to take a tackle and sign a FA tackle.  But a rookie tackle has its scary drawbacks as well. As bad as Becton has been this year, could he be better than a rook whose wet behind the ears. If Becton walks then its a no brainer they take a tackle with the 1st round pick. But if he's resigned,  JD  could sign Bakthari ? and stick Becton at RT. He could then TRADE back, grab Daniels, draft a guard or tackle in round 2.  If Bakthari clears his physical, he's a Jet. 

[Ron Rico]

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

 JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (it often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer-term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad. 

The Jets very well could go 2-1 to finish the season, and if that happens, they won't be in position to get a blue-chip Tackle. At that point a trade down to get a 2nd round pick makes sense. Of course, it only makes sense if JD uses the both picks to take Tackle's. But knowing that meathead, he'll use the picks on other positions because of "best available player" BS. 

I don't think JD is tracking on how beyond desperate this situation has become. Until he shows signs of "getting it", I have no reason not to believe he's already penciled Becton in as the starting LT, and if any player besides a Tackle drops into his proverbial lap, he's going to draft that player, because he's confident Becton can improve. It's the same myopic view he has with Sad Sack, and to a lesser degree, all of his draft picks. Double Down Douglas is the guy who insists on forcing a square peg into a round hole. He's that guy. 

 

[Maynard13]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Always a possibility, that why I posted it, to spark conversation and debate

There is a conclusive range of where we can pick, and where we are likely to pick, but yes, the final spot remains TBD.

I doubt it.  And I very strongly doubt JD would make that selection regardless.

You'd have to make a VERY compelling argument for why JD, of all people, is going to pick a QB in a "win or get fired" season, and how that QB supports that situation.  Short-timers rarely think long-term best interests.

I'm sure, but there are not "tons" of top-end blue chip Tackle prospects.  Right now, there are about 3.

Now, as noted, the draft IS a crapshoot, and some lesser talents/prospects will be HOF'ers and 1, 2 or all 3 blue chippers might bust.

But if you think you're locking down the Tackle spot with any level of certainty with a 2nd rounder?  That's optimism I guess.

Also, we don't have a 2nd rounder at current, so that would need addressed too.

Addressed in the OP, more cost-off Green Bay Rodgers-friends isn't a viable solution, albeit it has a much higher odds of happening than some other things do. 

Agreed on both counts.

That would be appalling given his time here so far.  Absolutely pathetic IMO.  

I'm arguing it should be.  

We don't have a 2nd.  And they're not equivalents to the top prospects, albeit (as said above) some might turn out better, but at higher odds of picking the right one the deeper we go.

That's Rodgers argument, the one he'll assuredly use to try and lure in some old friends from Green Bay.  Like he did with Cobb.

So just to be clear then:  We're sitting on the clock, with one or more of the top 3 tackles on the board, and you're decision as GM is to trade down to get a 2nd (presuming someone is willing to do it) and take your OT in the 2nd or 3rd, is that right?

Pre-Rodgers I think he might have been smart enough to do it.  He wasn't great at making picks, but they did seem like longer-term thinking type picks.

Now, on a "win now or else" final year of his contract?  No chance in hell.  He already did that last year with MacDonald, who contributed near on nothing meaningful this year.  

Agreed!

FLAWED

I agree with your last statement

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

There's trading down and there's trading down. 

Depends on how far down, and which teams are not only in between those two picks, but also within reasonable striking distance for a trade-up.

Say we're picking #7, move down to #10, and the next OT-needy team is down at #16. Or play with those slots however you want, including merely trading down 2 slot to a team who wants to leapfrog #8 for the last blue-chip QB prospect, for argument's sake, and he far exceeds chart value (e.g. getting a 2nd instead of a 3rd in return) for that mild drop. Hey, if he was naturally picking 9th, would he trade his 2nd rounder to move up two slots to #7 for an OT? I seriously doubt it. 

If you were pretty much talking about trading down from roughly 7 to 15 to recover a mid-2nd rounder? TBH I still think that's too early to tell. Depends on how many and which tackle(s) are added in free agency. If he signs Bakhtiari after GB releases him - and man he'd have to have some set of balls (and lots of missing brain cells) to do that after this team's OL injuries these past 2-3 seasons plus all the failed Rodgers recommendations this season - then I could see him rationalizing that he only needs a RT and need not take one all the way up at #7 if a juicy trade-down offer came in. You might argue Bakhtiari would at best be a likely max 2-3 year patch (and I'd agree, if he makes it through even 1 season first), after which that RT could move to LT, not unlike Wirfs in Tampa. But Wirfs is not the typical pick outcome, so wisdom or stupidity aside, I could see him doing it.

Consider if we do pick up at #7 and next-best OL prospect on the board is deemed a value closer to the late teens to #20. It's one thing to reach 3-5 slots at #15, letting positional need dictate that; it's another to reach 10-13 slots way up at #7. Too many variables today to say he won't trade down no matter what.

Agree he's not taking a QB in round 1 no matter what. He's hoping for 2 more seasons (which is to say, 2 seasons) of Rodgers and is already without a 2nd round pick. He's not waiting until round 3 to draft the first rookie contributor -- he's going to view this season as a push for a SB in Rodgers's upcoming two seasons, and therefore his charge this season is to find a minimum of 4 new instant starters on offense (not future starters) on offense around Rodgers: a WR2, 2 OTs, and a G/C, not counting new depth at QB, WR, and OL, and a new SS (accepting he's going to retain the villainous Mosley). If he upgrades the starting TE also, that's gravy, but I think if the OL is fixed and Rodgers stays upright, he'll feel they can get by with Conklin/Ruckert plus the winner of a Kuntz/Yeboah camp battle.

[varjet]

• Greg Van Roten, George Fant and other ex-Jet OL are out in the NFL functioning.   I really believe that if they can upgrade scheme and coaching they can better play out of the same players.
• I really wonder what they are going to do with Tomlinson.  What a bad contract.  Woody saves $12mm cash by cutting him, and $8mm of cap space.  But if we can replace him, or restructure him, I would do that.  
• Becton should be offered an extension for a very reasonable sum of money.  We can find a use for him.  If he turns it down, he turns it down.
• Ever since the great Jet OL from 10+ years ago, we have discussed replacing OL with FAs.  We have never signed the top FA OL for a variety of reasons-Jetsy, $, coaching, NJ, taxes, no QB, etc.  No Thuney, No Conklin, etc.  there will be no Jonah Williams.  We have to find ways to get OL and coach them better.  The first way is through the draft.
• The optimal QB room next year is Rodgers, a Vet QB2 and a developmental QB that can hang out on the practice squad.  I don't think that happens and we will need 3 on the 53.  That assumes that Zach will be unloaded in the offseason for some compensation.  If not Zach is QB3.  JD really blew it by playing Zach against the Dolphins,.  He should have gotten a practice injury and stood pat on his Texans' performance for trade value.  
• This team would be in much, much better shape if we had an additional WR or OT (like Anton Harrison) from the 2023 draft than MCDIV.   JD basically bungled his first 2 drafts, recovered in 2022, but then largely blew 2023.  That is why the team feels so bad.  It will be hard to recover from that.  

[bitonti]

3 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

Wirfs, Sewell and AVT would’ve been even better. 

Wirfs Sewell and Quenton Nelson plus 3 second rd picks would be even better 

But At a certain point in this exercise wouldn't the excellent offensive line stop the Jets from picking so highly in the round? 

Things that make you go hmmm

[jamesr]

Yes I think JD resigns Becton for the reasons you stated, even Becton knows as much - but - to how many years. He'd want a new phat contract with at least 2-3 years which someone else may give him. If you let him walk, as you stated, JD would have to take a tackle and sign a FA tackle.  But a rookie tackle has its scary drawbacks as well. As bad as Becton has been this year, could he be better than a rook whose wet behind the ears. If Becton walks then its a no brainer they take a tackle with the 1st round pick. But if he's resigned,  JD  could sign Bakthari ? and stick Becton at RT. He could then TRADE back, grab Daniels, draft a guard or tackle in round 2.  If Bakthari clears his physical, he's a Jet. 

My thinking is that they could have Becton + rookie compete for LT / RT, and the longer term view is the rookie will play LT down the line if not straight away.

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