Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[Gastineau Lives]

45 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

We have zero idea what Bowers runs until he runs. 

Can’t we just get the 40 times of the guys he’s dusting and figure it out?

[BigRy56]

Brock Bowers is an A+ prospect with years of high level production and national championships as the focal point of that offense. Perhaps he has peaked and the positional value idea is a real thing, but this would be a great pick.

I’d still prefer Alt/Fautanu or Odunze (best case scenario) but Bowers is a blue chip prospect with potential to be a top TE immediately. This may be the best TE prospect ever… Can’t be mad about selecting that at 10 when the Jets have done nothing but not score points for a decade.

It’s nice to be in a position where it feels they can’t get the pick wrong unless they go defense

[Gastineau Lives]

55 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Daniel Jones hit 21.23 MPH. 

And his license plate # was tmshnzadck

[derp]

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

blocked.

Reported.

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Can’t we just get the 40 times of the guys he’s dusting and figure it out?

Unfortunately, those fellas only submitted backflips and mile times from high school for us to judge.

[Gastineau Lives]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Unfortunately, those fellas only submitted backflips and mile times from high school for us to judge.

And what were the numbers?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

54 minutes ago, derp said:

I’m aware of the stats so just spamming them isn’t really insightful in any way. It’s important to contextualize them.

I guess I’ll follow by asking if it’s fair to say a few things: 

-his career numbers are outstanding for a tight end 

-his efficiency numbers are excellent

-his year over year numbers are pretty flat, don’t show a significant uptrend - touchdowns decrease, yardage increases slightly. no year jumps off the page.

So if I look at those three things I think that his career numbers are driven by the excellent off the bat production but I don’t see a trend of improvement like say Nabers. And his career stats are far more impressive than Bowers’. I’d want that gap to be a bit closer ideally if we’re talking a tight end being dominant.

And with the efficiency numbers, the question is whether you can extend those to more touches because that to me is what makes a dominant player. Efficiency is great, efficiency plus volume gets you dominance.

Now, I think you can make a decent argument against that which is if you take his six games pre injury and prorate them over a health thirteen game season maybe he made that big leap. It’s a pretty small sample and we don’t know. But that’s potentially a reasonable leap to make. I just think a lot of leaps need to be made to make up for an eye test and sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t.

TLDR I think there’s a disconnect between his strong for a tight end career stats and his strong efficiency numbers that is largely explained by his strong start to his college career and his relatively low year over year volume. I just don’t think I’d call him dominant. To make a Jets comparison on the career stats I’d say Curtis Martin had a tremendous career but wasn’t dominant. I don’t have a good one for the efficiency versus raw numbers.

My context to your original question was noting how SEC coaches viewed him, adding color to his Yards after Catch by turning them instead into Yards after CONTACT, and noting how his 3 year career stats in key areas compared to others including NFL guys like Pitts and LaPorta.

These collective stats plus top percentile TD & first down percentages, yards over expected per target, and elite production as an inline and slot target show a level of dominance over his entire college career.

I see nothing but support in the stats mentioned by myself and others that he is an elite or dominant TE.  

The context I would ask you is why were some of his stats better in his freshman year?  Did teams start to bracket him more, thereby freeing up other Georgia playmakers? Individual stas aren’t the only definition of a dominant player.  

I’m not arguing he is more impactful than a dominant QB or WR.  I’m arguing he was a dominant college TE that was a nightmare mismatch for opposing coaches.  He changed the way they played him.

Im also not debating he should be our pick over Odunze or Alt.
 

[derp]

16 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I agree that athleticism is important. I do wish we had the testing numbers. But pretty much every data point we do actually have says he is a special athlete. In game player tracking data from PFF (which I’m assuming is more than just top speed in MPH which I agree is flawed) has him as a 99th percentile athlete. Another player tracking site has him at a 99 athletic score. The way Georgia utilized him says special athlete. Anecdotes from the Georgia coaching staff about his exceptional tracking numbers from their practices say special athlete. The puff pieces and unconfirmed accounts of him running 40s at 4.5 in HS say special athlete.

None of this is perfect, all the above have flaws, and I can’t speak specifically on the methodology of the PFF and other player tracking site. But I haven’t seen anything not based on pretty out there conjecture that contradicts the idea that he’s in that tier, which is where I’d pretty firmly place him based on the dreaded “eye test” as well.

There’s nothing concrete that says yes or no. The question becomes if he's not testing, why? Is he not doing it just because he doesn’t feel like it, because it’s taking him months to get over a hamstring injury, or because he knows what numbers he’s going to put up and that they'd dispel everything you posted? Everyone will speculate, none of us knows, and everyone will decide how they feel about the not testing based on the conclusion they come to.

[RedBeardedSavage]

4 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

And what were the numbers?

"Yes, and..."

[Gastineau Lives]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

Reported.

Jealous.

[derp]

6 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

My context to your original question was noting how SEC coaches viewed him, adding color to his Yards after Catch by turning them instead into Yards after CONTACT, and noting how his 3 year career stats in key areas compared to others including NFL guys like Pitts and LaPorta.

These collective stats plus top percentile TD & first down percentages, yards over expected per target, and elite production as an inline and slot target show a level of dominance over his entire college career.

I see nothing but support in the stats mentioned by myself and others that he is an elite or dominant TE.  

The context I would ask you is why were some of his stats better in his freshman year?  Did teams start to bracket him more, thereby freeing up other Georgia playmakers? Individual stas aren’t the only definition of a dominant player.  
 

The SEC coaches are the definition of subjective.

Why does yards after contact versus yards after catch mean he translates better to the professional level?

Again, I believe three year stats don’t show dominance. One year stats would. He was very good over three years and compiled a tremendous career for a tight end. No individual year was impressive.

The individual stats that were better as a freshman were touchdowns which are fluky by nature.

I don’t know how you can look at him and look at Nabers or Odunze and call the stats dominant. But perhaps we will need to agree to disagree.

[jvill 51]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

There’s nothing concrete that says yes or no. The question becomes if he's not testing, why? Is he not doing it just because he doesn’t feel like it, because it’s taking him months to get over a hamstring injury, or because he knows what numbers he’s going to put up and that they'd dispel everything you posted? Everyone will speculate, none of us knows, and everyone will decide how they feel about the not testing based on the conclusion they come to.

Fair. I would just be more worried about it if a) there was anything at all besides speculation that “he’s hiding” that points to him not being a great athlete, because everything else that I’ve seen says that he is; and b) we didn’t have the tech we do now to track players athleticism in games and in practice.

[Tranquilo]

28 minutes ago, derp said:

Reported.

Saved.

[Bronx]

5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Good thing we have an innovative offensive coordinator who will think outside the box and carve out a role for this kid.

Especially after Rodgers roundtrip to the PUP list. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

33 minutes ago, derp said:

The SEC coaches are the definition of subjective.

Why does yards after contact versus yards after catch mean he translates better to the professional level?

Again, I believe three year stats don’t show dominance. One year stats would. He was very good over three years and compiled a tremendous career for a tight end. No individual year was impressive.

The individual stats that were better as a freshman were touchdowns which are fluky by nature.

I don’t know how you can look at him and look at Nabers or Odunze and call the stats dominant. But perhaps we will need to agree to disagree.

I noted your first point in my original response.

The definition of dominance is having a large impact or influence over something.  It’s not tied to individual statistics alone.

Brock Bowers was a dominant force at Georgia and in the SEC because you couldn’t cover him with a CB, LB or Safety.  This translated to a record setting career across multiple key statistics AND elite productivity rates.

It also translated to teams forcing coverage in his direction which opened the game for others.  That is as much the definition of dominance as stats alone.  

As a comparison, were Quinnen Williams stats down last year?  Yes, but that had a lot to do with how teams ‘accounted for him’.  They double teamed him because teams thought he had the largest impact on the game.  One can argue he had just as much of an impact last year because he influenced the opposing coach to play pick your poison.

Nabers and Odunze play a different position.  I’m not arguing that TE is more valuable than WR.  I’m simply saying Bowers was dominant at the position he played and as an overall offensive playmaker.  The latter part because he created mismatches for himself and others.  Pick your poison.  

The reason yards after contact is more important in this case than yards after catch is because he caught a lot of quick hitters at the line of scrimmage that would inflate yards after catch compared to other TEs.  So I’m trying to normalize for a key difference in his catch profile.  I never said this would translate to the NFL.  But I do believe it would because his burst, speed, body control, contact balance and toughness.
 

Now leave me alone!!

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Fantasy analyst Scott Barrett is all over Bowers.

Thinks he’s basically a slam dunk prospect.

Have a lot of respect for Barrett’s work, but still not excited about Bowers at #10.

[WhartonJet]

4 hours ago, Matt39 said:

If we want to be technical Laporta is heavier than Bowers. Maybe they didn’t teach that in business school.

This is where you are going?  6'3" 243 is different than 6'3" 245?  That's the difference of a morning sh*t for these guys.

You are a clown

[Adoni Beast]

17 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Fantasy analyst Scott Barrett is all over Bowers.

Thinks he’s basically a slam dunk prospect.

Have a lot of respect for Barrett’s work, but still not excited about Bowers at #10.

I really think our slam dunk move would be trading up for Nabers or MJH. Everything after that is going to have some risk. Although the talent level in this year's draft (versus say last years) is so much better that the risk is more meh than bust.

Bowers is a huge gamble but his floor I think is average TE, but with a very high ceiling. So if the gamble works we have a mismatch nightmare on offense and we can run 12 personnel at will which will help disguise the running back substantially. 

[derp]

37 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I noted your first point in my original response.

The definition of dominance is having a large impact or influence over something.  It’s not tied to individual statistics alone.

Brock Bowers was a dominant force at Georgia and in the SEC because you couldn’t cover him with a CB, LB or Safety.  This translated to a record setting career across multiple key statistics AND elite productivity rates.

It also translated to teams forcing coverage in his direction which opened the game for others.  That is as much the definition of dominance as stats alone.  

As a comparison, were Quinnen Williams stats down last year?  Yes, but that had a lot to do with how teams ‘accounted for him’.  They double teamed him because teams thought he had the largest impact on the game.  One can argue he had just as much of an impact last year because he influenced the opposing coach to play pick your poison.

Nabers and Odunze play a different position.  I’m not arguing that TE is more valuable than WR.  I’m simply saying Bowers was dominant at the position he played and as an overall offensive playmaker.  The latter part because he created mismatches for himself and others.  Pick your poison.  

The reason yards after contact is more important in this case than yards after catch is because he caught a lot of quick hitters at the line of scrimmage that would inflate yards after catch compared to other TEs.  So I’m trying to normalize for a key difference in his catch profile.  I never said this would translate to the NFL.  But I do believe it would because his burst, speed, body control, contact balance and toughness.
 

Now leave me alone!!

Is there any data that shows he was double teamed a lot? I know there is for Harrison, for example. I genuinely don’t know whether that’s something that actually happened or you’re speculating. And he’s just left alone on several of his big plays which makes me wonder.

To me, this idea he was uncoverable is not supported by his production, I guess. If teams couldn’t cover him why is he catching like 2-3 balls past the line of scrimmage per game?

It ultimately matters if the YAC - whatever you want the C to be - translates, right? In the NFL guys are going to be stronger, faster, and better tacklers and if his game is built on that you want him to be able to do it in the pros.

I like Bowers and I understand the rationale for drafting him if they do but I think there’s just so much hyperbole around him from those who are locked in on the Jets taking him. 

[derp]

1 hour ago, jvill 51 said:

Fair. I would just be more worried about it if a) there was anything at all besides speculation that “he’s hiding” that points to him not being a great athlete, because everything else that I’ve seen says that he is; and b) we didn’t have the tech we do now to track players athleticism in games and in practice.

And if he was a really technical route runner who’s produced on high volume and caught the ball in traffic a lot I wouldn’t care so much but I think the athleticism plays so much into how he wins that it’d be nice when anticipating how he translates.

[Guilhermezmc]

Why are we nitpicking Bowers and not talking anything about how Fauaga had 8 flags against him, how hes much more of a guard than a tackle, same thing about Fautanu and that he can't run block for sh*t.

They are guards, are we really going after another guard after just a couple years removed from trading up to get a guard who even when on the field was a worst option than the LT the Vikings drafted with the pick we gave them?

How can you trust JD to take another OL if everyone that he got was either mediocre or absolute garbage.

 

If none of the receivers are there you go Bowers without even thinking that much.

[Adoni Beast]

2 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Why are we nitpicking Bowers and not talking anything about how Fauaga had 8 flags against him, how hes much more of a guard than a tackle, same thing about Fautanu and that he can't run block for sh*t.

They are guards, are we really going after another guard after just a couple years removed from trading up to get a guard who even when on the field was a worst option than the LT the Vikings drafted with the pick we gave them?

 

I definitely think Fuaga will be best suited for guard...but I don't agree that Fautanu will be. I think he will be better suited at LT. Pretty much every prospect in this draft (and every) draft has flaws. The only two players that I think are pure locks to be great are MJH and Nabers.

 

[rex-n-effect]

Love to recall the excitement over the last player the Jets drafted with a high pick due to athletic skills. 

[Rich Thornburgh]

12 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I definitely think Fuaga will be best suited for guard...but I don't agree that Fautanu will be. I think he will be better suited at LT. Pretty much every prospect in this draft (and every) draft has flaws. The only two players that I think are pure locks to be great are MJH and Nabers.

 

You don’t draft a guard with a top 10 pick unless it’s a lock generational superstar like Nelson

[Guilhermezmc]

16 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I definitely think Fuaga will be best suited for guard...but I don't agree that Fautanu will be. I think he will be better suited at LT. Pretty much every prospect in this draft (and every) draft has flaws. The only two players that I think are pure locks to be great are MJH and Nabers.

Fautanu has the measurements really against him, I don't really see him as technician, don't know how he will be able to handle being a LT in the nfl being that short with those tiny hands...

Maybe I just don't trust JD to make a OL pick again, both of those guys just look like AVT on a Samoan videogame skin.

I would much rather bet on the best TE by every stat college football has seen in probably 15 years...

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Maybe I just don't trust JD to make a OL pick again, both of those guys just look like AVT on a Samoan videogame skin.

AVT without the injury history and tackle-arm-length would be a great pick.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Fautanu has the measurements really against him, I don't really see him as technician, don't know how he will be able to handle being a LT in the nfl being that short with those tiny hands...

Maybe I just don't trust JD to make a OL pick again, both of those guys just look like AVT on a Samoan videogame skin.

I would much rather bet on the best TE by every stat college football has seen in probably 15 years...

Fashanu has the tiny hands.  I like fautanu.  

[Claymation]

The Athletic's Bruce Feldman predicts that the New York Jets will give quarterback Aaron Rodgers another receiving weapon in the upcoming NFL draft by taking Georgia tight end Brock Bowers with the 10th overall pick. Bowers is the best skill player that Georgia has produced since head coach Kirby Smart took over in 2016. He was the SEC Freshman of the Year in 2021 and a first-team All-American. The 21-year-old had 21 touchdowns over three seasons for the Bulldogs, and the 6-foot-3, 243-pounder is a terrific athlete. "What separates him is on the 50-50 balls, he's just such a competitor. He seems to have that 'clutch gene,'" one coach said. The Jets haven't had a fantasy relevant tight end in what feels like ages, but Bowers could change that quickly in 2024 if he goes to the Jets and Rodgers can stay healthy.

Hmm... better than Michel, Chubb, Swift and Pickens. I could see that.

Fox Sports football analyst Joel Klatt:

“I have told you from the start of this process that I’m a huge believer in tight ends and a huge believer in Brock Bowers. The dude gets it done. He’s the perfect style of player to build an offense around from a skill position perspective. He’s going to be in the playoffs, probably going to be the focal point of an offense that’s going to win a Super Bowl at some point.

“Every Super Bowl winner for the last eight years has had a player that can own the center of the field. Whether it was Edelman or Gronk or Kelce, that’s what you have to have. Or else you can’t run the football.”

“Brock Bowers can do that,” Klatt continued. “His value should not be questioned just because there are the letters TE next to his name. Don’t overthink this. You don’t hunt ghosts in this profession and you don’t do that here.”

Bowers considered a first-round lock

Klatt ranked Bowers only behind Rome Odunze, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Caleb Williams. 

Granted Klatt isn't a scout, but he is someone who watches quite a bit of college ball.

 

 

[Guilhermezmc]

26 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Fashanu has the tiny hands.  I like fautanu.  

Fautanu also has tiny hands

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

I really think our slam dunk move would be trading up for Nabers or MJH. Everything after that is going to have some risk. Although the talent level in this year's draft (versus say last years) is so much better that the risk is more meh than bust.

Bowers is a huge gamble but his floor I think is average TE, but with a very high ceiling. So if the gamble works we have a mismatch nightmare on offense and we can run 12 personnel at will which will help disguise the running back substantially. 

Yeah.

If floors are a concern, I would say MHJ is a slightly "safer" prospect than Nabers, but both profile as dominant WR talents.

Depends on what you want.

MHJ is your classic big X WR.  Better hands, more of a natural "hands catcher, and more seasoned as a route runner.  High football IQ.  Well-trained surely by his dad.

Nabers is a bit more explosive athletically, and like Justin Jefferson or Odell Beckham, you can move him around.  Did lethal work out of the slot at LSU.

Unfortunately, I think they have virtually zero shot at MHJ.

Everything Arizona has done this offseason has set things up for them to take him at #4.  I suppose they could go Nabers over MHJ, but no GM is going to take that risk when it's completely unnecessary to do so.

AZ would have to get an offer they can't refuse by a QB-hungry team.  Jets would then need to trade up to #5 or #6, which wouldn't come cheap.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Is there any data that shows he was double teamed a lot? I know there is for Harrison, for example. I genuinely don’t know whether that’s something that actually happened or you’re speculating. And he’s just left alone on several of his big plays which makes me wonder.

To me, this idea he was uncoverable is not supported by his production, I guess. If teams couldn’t cover him why is he catching like 2-3 balls past the line of scrimmage per game?

It ultimately matters if the YAC - whatever you want the C to be - translates, right? In the NFL guys are going to be stronger, faster, and better tacklers and if his game is built on that you want him to be able to do it in the pros.

I like Bowers and I understand the rationale for drafting him if they do but I think there’s just so much hyperbole around him from those who are locked in on the Jets taking him. 

Do you have the data that shows how often Harrison was double teamed?  Maybe I can plug Bowers into the same database.  Otherwise the argument goes both ways.  Logically, it would make sense for both of these players to be doubled or bracketed a lot. 

There are multiple articles out there referencing Bowers was the focal point of the offense and double teamed or bracketed.  Cant find any advance stats that show this.

Maybe there are some posters who watched Georgia a lot over the last couple of years who can comment.  It’s kind of a silly argument though that Bowers wasn’t a dominant college player at his position.  Just read all the scouting reports or look at the accolades he received.  

I’m not even arguing with you that this translates to the Pros.  I’m just saying he was a dominant college player who other teams had to game plan against.

[derp]

19 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Do you have the data that shows how often Harrison was double teamed?  Maybe I can plug Bowers into the same database.  Otherwise the argument goes both ways.  Logically, it would make sense for both of these players to be doubled or bracketed a lot. 

There are multiple articles out there referencing Bowers was the focal point of the offense and double teamed or bracketed.  Cant find any advance stats that show this.

Maybe there are some posters who watched Georgia a lot over the last couple of years who can comment.  It’s kind of a silly argument though that Bowers wasn’t a dominant college player at his position.  Just read all the scouting reports or look at the accolades he received.  

I’m not even arguing with you that this translates to the Pros.  I’m just saying he was a dominant college player who other teams had to game plan against.

I don’t have a database, it came from an article this was in:

 

Scouting reports don’t really do much for me. It turns into an echo chamber. They talk about how he runs routes like a receiver, but he did so much behind the line of scrimmage and on such low volume that if he *was* a receiver they’d claim that his usage was gadget-y and they’d question how it would translate.

Maybe I’m quibbling on your use of the word dominant, I don’t know. To me needing to game plan against someone doesn’t make them dominant. Bowers never had a season with 1,000 receiving yards in college.

Really efficient and productive from the start of his career? Absolutely. Dominant? To me Nabers and Odunze were dominant this year. Teams changed how they defended Washington because they couldn’t stop Odunze and he still produced. Daniels was probably dominant this year. Harrison given the above I think you can make that argument. Bowers probably had a little stretch mid season but we just don’t have the benefit of seeing it flushed out. I would be curious to see more data and I wonder if Harmon did Bowers.

I have seen @Lith that he thinks the Georgia offense was more impacted by McConkey’s absences than Bowers’, for whatever that’s worth.

[Larz]

4 hours ago, bitonti said:

I didn't see it in the thread yet so here's another "Scout's Take" this time from Dane Brugler and the Beast over at Athletic

 

 

That’s some write up wow. I’d be all over this guy if I had more confidence in Hackett and Rodgers finding a role for him in the offense. 

[Gastineau Lives]

4 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Unfortunately, those fellas only submitted backflips and mile times from high school for us to judge.

I got a backflip for you

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

You can suck your own dick in this thread too

 

 

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=27288