Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[Bobby816]

8 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I always find it interesting, but not sure how valuable it is. Like you said, sometimes they vary so widely even on the same topic that it’s tough to find a takeaway. Also think some of these guys might get too much joy out of seeing their quotes in print - case in point the guy saying Bowers would run a 4.8 which is ridiculous. The eye test can certainly be deceiving and I’m getting older, but I’m not blind yet I don’t think.
 

 

4.7

[UntouchableCrew]

9 minutes ago, Claymation said:

What?

Why did you quote tweet me twice with two separate comments? See my last response to you.

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

Love the Bob McGinn draft articles and hate that they are behind a paywall now.  Would be grateful if his other draft articles would be shred on this board.

[THE BARON]

2 hours ago, Guilhermezmc said:

If the Jets take him he's a bust but if he falls to the Bengals he's a first ballot hall of famer, the overanalyzing of Bowers as a prospect is really dumb and the positional value BS is too.

No one is talking about how Detroit really went full "bad" positional value in last years draft, when they reached a conference championship.

You got it.  Bowers is a producer.  Will be a producer.  A big one.  He is not just a TE.  He is a football player.  A complete player.  Driven, competitive to the max, durable.  The only thing that will hold him up from being a star and top tier producer is an OC that cant figure out how to wipe his own ass.

Also BIG bonus for a 40 year old QB and questionable offensive line.

Rodgers will have a safety outlet with brains to see and know when his QB needs a hand in a hell hot hurry.  AND... Get the ball to him at the LOS or only three yards downfield, and he will take the ball another ten yards + with his legs and ability to cut and shed blockers.

I half expect Bowers to be gone by the time the Jets are up, but if he is there at 10 and the Jets don't drat him, I am going to have a meltdown

I see only two players that should be taken before Bowers.  Alt and MHJ.

 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, THE BARON said:

You got it.  Bowers is a producer.  Will be a producer.  A big one.  He is not just a TE.  He is a football player.  A complete player.  Driven, competitive to the max, durable.  The only thing that will hold him up from being a star and top tier producer is an OC that cant figure out how to wipe his own ass.

Also BIG bonus for a 40 year old QB and questionable offensive line.

Rodgers will have a safety outlet with brains to see and know when his QB needs a hand in a hell hot hurry.  AND... Get the ball to him at the LOS or only three yards downfield, and he will take the ball another ten yards + with his legs and ability to cut and shed blockers.

I half expect Bowers to be gone by the time the Jets are up, but if he is there at 10 and the Jets don't drat him, I am going to have a meltdown

I see only two players that should be taken before Bowers.  Alt and MHJ.

 

I could see a team like Indy trading to 8 or 9 to get him

[DoubleDown]

Drafting a tweener TE at #10 would be a huge mistake.  The Jets have big needs at OL and WR, which lines up perfectly with the projected talent available in that area of the draft.

Why is no one discussing that TE is not actually a need on the Jets?  Conklin is solid, durable, well rounded, and coming off a couple of moderately productive years.  The Jets also have young, talented, developing players behind him in Ruckert, Kuntz, and Yeboah.

I don't think Bowers is the generational, can't miss prospect others are painting him to be.  Worthy of a first round grade?  Sure, but he's the type of player you draft at the back half of the first round when other blue chips at OL, WR, DPR, and CB are off the board.

[Larz]

He’s fast. Let’s put that to bed at least. He’s not my preference at 10 but he’s fast lol 
 

 

[Jack Straw]

Brock Bowers has broken JetNation. 

[Jet Nut]

48 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I always find it interesting, but not sure how valuable it is. Like you said, sometimes they vary so widely even on the same topic that it’s tough to find a takeaway. Also think some of these guys might get too much joy out of seeing their quotes in print - case in point the guy saying Bowers would run a 4.8 which is ridiculous. The eye test can certainly be deceiving and I’m getting older, but I’m not blind yet I don’t think.
 

 

Is that Bob Wischusen with the call?   
 

[FTL Jet Fan]

It would be interesting to see the reactions if the Jets don’t take Bowers and it was all just a smoke screen. 
 

JD maybe a little young to remember this one.

 

 

[Matt39]

9 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Brock Bowers has broken JetNation. 

At least he plays offense. If he can get open and catch, good. The value at 10 seems too rich, but we’ll deal. 

[Gastineau Lives]

14 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Brock Bowers has broken JetNation. 

New here?

[GangGreeninBetween]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Does he even qualify as a TE? He's undersized, can't block, doesn't outjump DBs for the ball. The scouting report in this thread says he's not a three down player. He seems like he projects as some combination of an H-back and big slot receiver that is a power runner in space. The claims that he's a difference maker as an athlete are based around whispers of what people heard he's done.

I have no doubt he's a good football player and if he goes to a team with a creative offensive mind I think he has the chance to be a very good pro. But he was largely schemed open and ran away from college LBs in the open field. I don't think he'll be able to do what he did in college in the NFL.

I'd be totally onboard with drafting someone with his profile in the second and third round -- where all the top TEs get drafted anyway. But at 10 overall? No shot.

More succinctly -- I'd be shocked if he ended up being a good pick at 10th overall by the New York Jets.

Bowers sounds like he'd make a great rugby player

[nyjets1969]

Thats type a guy you put in schemes that his athletic ability would thrive in. Problem you don't have that kind of OC. If they did taking Bowers at 10 is a no brainer.

[Jack Straw]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

At least he plays offense. If he can get open and catch, good. The value at 10 seems too rich, but we’ll deal. 

Kyle Brady he is not.

It's also worth noting that nobody in the league averages more passes behind the LOS than Aaron Rodgers. For most of his career, it's been something like 33%. That's what Bowers excels at. It's a match made in heaven. 

[Jetpain]

44 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I could see a team like Indy trading to 8 or 9 to get him

Hope they trade up to 10 to take him

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

—————————————————————-

 

 

[Matt39]

7 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Kyle Brady he is not.

It's also worth noting that nobody in the league averages more passes behind the LOS than Aaron Rodgers. For most of his career, it's been something like 33%. That's what Bowers excels at. It's a match made in heaven. 

Sure. He’s not Brady. I also don’t think he’s best tight end in the league potential. Goddert is a solid tight end and a decent comp. At 10, you could do worse.

[T0mShane]

36 minutes ago, Larz said:

He’s fast. Let’s put that to bed at least. He’s not my preference at 10 but he’s fast lol 
 

 

Daniel Jones hit 21.23 MPH. 

[Matt39]

[Jack Straw]

6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Sure. He’s not Brady. I also don’t think he’s best tight end in the league potential. Goddert is a solid tight end and a decent comp. At 10, you could do worse.

Speed and YAC are core differentiators for Bowers. Goedert was a 4.7 guy whereas Bowers is closer to 4.5.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

Corum did run at the combine, and he was clocked at a 4.53, if that means anything.

Blake corum in Rd 6 or something late would be a very Jets pick 

Like hall they both had tons 650-700 career carries in the ncaa and the knock is too much wear on the tires 

JD doesn't care about wear he sees a short term bargain 

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Speed and YAC are core differentiators for Bowers. Goedert was a 4.7 guy whereas Bowers is closer to 4.5.

We have zero idea what Bowers runs until he runs. 

[derp]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

13 TDs as a true freshman as a starting point.  Goal is to score and he did that early and often, forcing teams to switch how they defended him.  

1st Team All SEC 3 years in a row, voted on by the coaches whose job it is to stop him.

Yards after contact, recognizing his yards after the catch are helped by some of the quick passes designed for him.

Here are some (mostly) objective stats:

————————————

 

Bowers was once again the most valuable tight end in the country as a sophomore and won his first John Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in college football. That year, he led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards (942), yards after the catch (479) and receiving yards after contact (274). 

As a junior, Bowers became the first two-time winner of the Mackey Award in its 24-year history. Despite missing four games due to injury/opt out, he still led all FBS tight ends with 486 yards after the catch and 249 receiving yards after contact while his 717 receiving yards led all Power Five ones. 

When looking at Bowers’ advanced receiving numbers since PFF began charting college football in 2014, he laps the field. 

Brock Bowers among Power Five tight ends since 2014 (PFF College’s inception)

Stat	Amount	Next-closest
Receiving grade	94.1	92.9  (Kyle Pitts)
Receiving yards	2,541	2,189 (Charlie Kolar)
Receiving touchdowns	26	23 (Charlie Kolar& Albert Okwuegbunam)
Receiving yards after contact	689	466 (Sam LaPorta)
Missed tackles forced on receptions	44	36 (Jaheim Bell, Sam LaPorta & Brant Kuithe)

 

I’m aware of the stats so just spamming them isn’t really insightful in any way. It’s important to contextualize them.

I guess I’ll follow by asking if it’s fair to say a few things: 

-his career numbers are outstanding for a tight end 

-his efficiency numbers are excellent

-his year over year numbers are pretty flat, don’t show a significant uptrend - touchdowns decrease, yardage increases slightly. no year jumps off the page.

So if I look at those three things I think that his career numbers are driven by the excellent off the bat production but I don’t see a trend of improvement like say Nabers. And his career stats are far more impressive than Bowers’. I’d want that gap to be a bit closer ideally if we’re talking a tight end being dominant.

And with the efficiency numbers, the question is whether you can extend those to more touches because that to me is what makes a dominant player. Efficiency is great, efficiency plus volume gets you dominance.

Now, I think you can make a decent argument against that which is if you take his six games pre injury and prorate them over a health thirteen game season maybe he made that big leap. It’s a pretty small sample and we don’t know. But that’s potentially a reasonable leap to make. I just think a lot of leaps need to be made to make up for an eye test and sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t.

TLDR I think there’s a disconnect between his strong for a tight end career stats and his strong efficiency numbers that is largely explained by his strong start to his college career and his relatively low year over year volume. I just don’t think I’d call him dominant. To make a Jets comparison on the career stats I’d say Curtis Martin had a tremendous career but wasn’t dominant. I don’t have a good one for the efficiency versus raw numbers.

[derp]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Daniel Jones hit 21.23 MPH. 

Hater.

[Jack Straw]

3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

We have zero idea what Bowers runs until he runs. 

Eh, you don't need to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing. 40 games of college film show elite speed for his size. He's not a track star but he's in the top 10% at his position.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Claymation said:

He has a 40" vertical

That’s from some puff piece about him in high school. The more recent puff piece (Feldman’s freaks list) had him at 36” and that article overestimates athleticism more often than not.

 

1 hour ago, Tranquilo said:

I don't think the speed stuff and 40 time is important. A mistake past GMs and scouts have made with TEs who are picked in the first round, is putting a lot of stock into athleticism. We keep hearing about all these TEs who got pick and busted. We also keep hearing that in order to be considered a 1st round TE, they need to have elite athleticism. Maybe it's been looked at the wrong way? The best TEs don't have generational athleticism. So I'm not too worried about that when it comes to Bowers. My main thing is the scheming.

The interpretation of this was effectively that not all special athletes are elite tight ends but most elite tight ends are special athletes.

I also think the athleticism is less important if you’re excellent at body positioning, catching in traffic, etc. Bowers’ game is heavily based on yards after the catch.

[bitonti]

I didn't see it in the thread yet so here's another "Scout's Take" this time from Dane Brugler and the Beast over at Athletic

 

Quote

1. BROCK BOWERS | Georgia 6031 | 243 lbs. | 3JR Napa, Calif. (Napa) 12/13/2002 (age 21.37) #19

BACKGROUND: Brock Bowers, the youngest of two children, grew up in Napa and played multiple sports throughout childhood, including baseball, basketball, golf, soccer and tennis (also an avid duck and deer hunter.) He was a standout baseball player in Little League, but his focus shifted to basketball and football in middle school. Bowers played just two years of football before high school and joined the 7-on-7 team KT Prep in eighth grade. He enrolled at Napa High School and was a 5-foot-11 option quarterback for the junior varsity team as a freshman. Bowers moved up to varsity as a sophomore and emerged as a do-everything weapon, playing wide receiver, tight end, running back, defensive end, linebacker and returning kicks. Napa went winless (0-10) his sophomore year (2018), but Bowers posted 42 catches for 620 yards and seven touchdowns. As a junior, he earned first team All-Metro, was named County Player of the Year and took home league MVP honors.

Bowers finished the 2019 season with 39 catches for 1,098 yards (28.2 average) and 14 touchdowns, adding 316 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 29 tackles and an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. His 2020 season was cancelled because of the pandemic. Bowers also lettered as a power forward in basketball.
A four-star recruit, Bowers was the No. 3 tight end in the 2021 recruiting class and the No. 10 recruit in California. After his first season on varsity, he received his first scholarship offer (Nevada), but his recruitment exploded after he attended the 2019 Nike Sparq camp and created a buzz with his 4.5-second 40-yard dash. Bowers’ list of offers grew from one to 20-plus, including major West Coast programs like Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington. He also considered offers from Michigan, Notre Dame (which offered him as a linebacker) and Penn State. It was Georgia and tight ends coach Todd Hartley who recruited him the hardest, though. Bowers wanted the same small-town feel he had experienced growing up plus a big stage on which to compete, making Athens a natural spot for him. He enrolled early in January
2021 and was the No. 8 recruit in the Bulldogs’ 2021 recruiting class. His parents met at Utah State, where they were both student-athletes. 

His father (Warren), who is now a partner of a Napa construction company, was an All-Conference center on the offensive line. Brock’s mother (DeAnna), a part-time math teacher and softball coach, was an All-American pitcher and first baseman on the softball team (1990-93) and was inducted into the Utah State Hall of Fame in 2016. Brock’s older sister (Brianna) played softball at Sacramento State (2019-21). Bowers, who also earned Academic All-America honors, opted out of the 2023 bowl game and elected to skip his senior season to enter the 2024 NFL Draft.

YEAR (GP/GS) REC YDS AVG TD DROP
2021: (15/13) 56 882 15.8 13 2

First Team All-American; Freshman All-American; SEC Freshman POY; First Team All-SEC; Led team in receiving
2022: (15/14) 63 942 15.0 7 3

First Team All-American; First Team All-SEC; Mackey Award; Led team in receiving; 3 rushing TDs
2023: (10/10) 56 714 12.8 6 3

Unanimous All-American; First Team All-SEC; Mackey Award; Led team in receiving; Missed three games (ankle)

Total: (40/37) 175 2,538 14.5 26 8

HT WT HAND ARM WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
COMBINE 6031 243 9 3/4 32 3/4 78 1/4 - - - - - - - - (no workout – right hamstring)
PRO DAY 6031 243 9 5/8 32 5/8 78 3/4 - - - - - - - - (no workout – right hamstring)

STRENGTHS: Special athlete for his size … opens his stride and reaches top speed in a blink … sets up routes with stems, head nods and sharp footwork, which allows him to accelerate in and out of his breaks … above-average ball skills, catching the ball well outside his frame (4.4 percent career drop rate) … coordinated body control helps him cleanly adjust or highpoint to the ball mid-air … dangerous after the catch, because of his speed and competitive chops to keep his feet through contact (averaged 8.5 YAC per reception in college) … diverse route runner and can be flexed across the formation … defenses gravitate towards him, creating decoy situations to open windows for other targets … has the speed to execute jet sweeps (183 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in his career) … physical positional blocker to reach, seal and keep his man occupied … can be a lead blocker and clear the way … rare maturity and smarts for a 21 year old (sniffs out and communicates blitzes pre-snap) … NFL scouts rave about his competitive mentality and the way he despises losing and rises in big moments … warrior toughness, and his teammates called him “Superman” after he missed only two games following a tightrope ankle procedure — normally a four-to-six-week injury (Kirby Smart: “Agents called him and told him to sit out the season after the injury. Those people will not be representing him, I promise you that, because all it did was piss him off.”)… made his mark in the Georgia record books, finishing No. 2 in career touchdown grabs (26), No. 3 in catches (175) and No. 4 in receiving yards (2,538).

WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have desired tight-end size for inline work … offers some growth potential but will likely be under 245 pounds for his NFL career … doesn’t have ideal length or overwhelming power to easily uncoil versus NFL defensive ends as an attached blocker … rangy move blocker but can do a better job breaking down in space … fumbled twice in 2023… missed three games as a junior because of a left ankle injury (October 2023), which required tightrope surgery (still traveled with the team and was involved in the gameplan).

SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Georgia, Bowers was the featured weapon in offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s scheme, lining up across the formation, with his career snaps spread between the slot (52.2 percent), inline (36.6 percent) and wide (9.5 percent). He led the team in receiving each of his three seasons in Athens and joined Herschel Walker and David Pollack as the only three-time first team All-Americans in school history. He also became the first two-time winner of the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. With both short-area burst and long speed, Bowers makes quick, dynamic cuts to create spacing as a route runner and hits another gear with the ball in his hands to be a home-run threat. He is a natural hands-catcher outside his frame and snatches without breaking stride. His physicality (before the catch, after the catch and as a blocker) is almost as impressive as his athletic traits, although his lack of ideal size and length will show in some inline blocking situations. Overall, Bowersis an explosive pass catcher who creates mismatches all over the field with speed, ball skills and competitive edge. He has NFL star potential in the mold of George Kittle, if he lands with a play caller prepared to feature his unique and versatile talent.

GRADE: 1st Round (No. 7 overall)

 

[Barry McCockinner]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

That’s from some puff piece about him in high school. The more recent puff piece (Feldman’s freaks list) had him at 36” and that article overestimates athleticism more often than not.

 

The interpretation of this was effectively that not all special athletes are elite tight ends but most elite tight ends are special athletes.

I also think the athleticism is less important if you’re excellent at body positioning, catching in traffic, etc. Bowers’ game is heavily based on yards after the catch.

[derp]

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

“Not all special athletes are elite tight ends.”

[Greenseed4]

23 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Blake corum in Rd 6 or something late would be a very Jets pick 

Like hall they both had tons 650-700 career carries in the ncaa and the knock is too much wear on the tires 

JD doesn't care about wear he sees a short term bargain 

Context for my comment was having a reference point of in-game clocked speed (22.1 mph) to 40 time since we don’t have a recent 40 for Bowers, but we do have him clocked at 21.9 mph
 

I wasn’t advocating Corum as a prospect.  I actually hope we draft a big bodied back (Estime, Allen)

 

[jvill 51]

9 minutes ago, derp said:

That’s from some puff piece about him in high school. The more recent puff piece (Feldman’s freaks list) had him at 36” and that article overestimates athleticism more often than not.

 

The interpretation of this was effectively that not all special athletes are elite tight ends but most elite tight ends are special athletes.

I also think the athleticism is less important if you’re excellent at body positioning, catching in traffic, etc. Bowers’ game is heavily based on yards after the catch.

I agree that athleticism is important. I do wish we had the testing numbers. But pretty much every data point we do actually have says he is a special athlete. In game player tracking data from PFF (which I’m assuming is more than just top speed in MPH which I agree is flawed) has him as a 99th percentile athlete. Another player tracking site has him at a 99 athletic score. The way Georgia utilized him says special athlete. Anecdotes from the Georgia coaching staff about his exceptional tracking numbers from their practices say special athlete. The puff pieces and unconfirmed accounts of him running 40s at 4.5 in HS say special athlete.

None of this is perfect, all the above have flaws, and I can’t speak specifically on the methodology of the PFF and other player tracking site. But I haven’t seen anything not based on pretty out there conjecture that contradicts the idea that he’s in that tier, which is where I’d pretty firmly place him based on the dreaded “eye test” as well.

[T0mShane]

5 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I think people would be a little underwhelmed even though that’s still really good for what he is. I think he’s just trying to avoid the letdown and just keep his perfect resume he’s put on tape.”

[Larz]

47 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Daniel Jones hit 21.23 MPH. 

That’s fast too. 

[Barry McCockinner]

16 minutes ago, derp said:

“Not all special athletes are elite tight ends.”

blocked.