The Crusher Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said: Gonna unvote and try that re-read now and focus on Crusher and CTM Sounds good . Good luck spooty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoot-Face Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Crusher said: Sounds good . Good luck spooty. I forgot how much I hate these high-roster games lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: 90 minutes to the deadline. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Day 1 Vote Count CTM (6)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, jvill 51, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR Verbal (3) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC Smash (2) - JiF, Verbal Spoot (1) - Crusher JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape Ape (1) - CTM JiF (1) - Smash Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch. DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH: Friday, 3 PM EST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios: 1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road. 2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable. 3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate. I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds. Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoot-Face Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, The Crusher said: Take it easy dude. Just hang out in the game as it go’s on you will get the jest. Still in early joke Time. And now that Ape joined the entire game is a joke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, jvill 51 said: Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios: 1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road. 2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable. 3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate. I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds. Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal. Incorrect - allow me to explain why: 1. Scum would be much more likely fake claim Doc or Cop to try and gauge reactions and draw out the real Doc or Cop via counterclaim or just seeing who reacted strongest. Highly unlikely option. 2. That never happens. Town will not allow a SK to live past a few phases. In other words, if I didn't start shooting scum, I'd be lynched with a quickness. A D1 revealed SK, even if fake revealed as vig, would never be able to win the game. Highly unlikely option. 3. This is the scenario. A benefit, but not a big one is absolutely correct. That said, it has the POTENTIAL to hurt scum and therefore scum will want to take me out if they can't get me lynched; therefore, it makes sense to keep the vig around longer and allow it to shoot at a consensus target. Regardless of that result, I'm fully expecting to eventually be killed by the scum team as the longer a vig stays alive, the more likely the chance they start hitting scum with their shots. If you're playing the odds, you need to go with the most likely scenario, which is #3. #1 is a no-no for scum to do, and #2 is the only other potentially viable situation, but unlikely because if scum haven't killed me after a handful of nights, the town can just lynch me and I'd lose either way. As I'm a townie, I don't mind dying to help the town win. BUT.....the smart move is to let the mafia team deal with me. Don't do their work for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Day 1 Vote Count CTM (5)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver Verbal (4) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC, jvill 51 Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR Smash (2) - JiF, Verbal Spoot (1) - Crusher JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape Ape (1) - CTM JiF (1) - Smash Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch. DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH: Friday, 3 PM EST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, GATA said: ^ sry dirty hippies are not trusted esp when they're being lazy and trying to lynch our only confirmed townie. ^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CTM said: ^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm? ^no one is jumping on the Ape train sugar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CTM said: ^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm? Are you seriously going to stick with a vote on Ape when we need to consolidate for a DL in 40 minutes? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, GATA said: ^no one is jumping on the Ape train sugar I was originally angered by your refusal to support my endeavor, but then you called me sugar and i got all swoony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 9:25 AM, Jetsfan80 said: 8. Lob lots of insults. Especially at @JiF, @CTM, and @Verbal I enjoy how we've kept true to this rule, lol. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Verbal said: Are you seriously going to stick with a vote on Ape when we need to consolidate for a DL in 40 minutes? I'm here mr indeterminate genitals. I'm not giving up my ape case yet, i think it's solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 20 people playing, only 6 of us here 30 min before dead line and the ******* ken doll is giving one of them grief ffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoot-Face Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Wall of text incoming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, CTM said: I'm here mr indeterminate genitals. I'm not giving up my ape case yet, i think it's solid I have an inclination to bathe in hippie blood tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustEndTheSuffering Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CTM said: 20 people playing, only 6 of us here 30 min before dead line and the ******* ken doll is giving one of them grief ffs Nervous? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Verbal said: I have an inclination to bathe in hippie blood tonight. no worries. I'm looking forward to sniping from the sideline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 31 minutes ago, jvill 51 said: Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios: 1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road. 2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable. 3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate. I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds. Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal. Good post. However, there is merit in letting this play out. Information is power in this game and right now, the only information we have even it's allegedly, is Verb is a Vig. That might not seem like a lot of information but when you have nothing, it's something and it will become very clear later on. That and while I too dont believe him, we're not going to get a huge swing in his favor in the next 30 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, JustEndTheSuffering said: Nervous? Only for the towns fortunes should they not heed my advice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 about 20 mins left @32EBoozer, @Spoot-Face @The Crusher @JustEndTheSuffering @Smashmouth @kdels62 @Jets Voice of Reason @BUM-KNEE @Drums @pdxgreen @Beaver @jvill 51 @JiF @Integrity28 @Jetscode1 @Stark @BrickTamland @CTM @Verbal @ID.@Beaver 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I was just doing a reread, Smash was disgusting yesterday. Disgusting. The crap he was pushing, the outright neglect of reading the game, he was heavily participating on D1 which he never does, his in ability to accept simple mafia concepts, the obvious inaccurate defense around the doc directing and he's the most risked adversed player in the game who never gave a single nod to the fact Verb could end up killing town, lying or SK. Probably because he wants him too help his team out. Let's lynch Smash and thank me after 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 top 3 are smash, crusher and the gatablot Science proves ape lynch is best move for town. I tried. I guess can't bring a cow to water but I can lynch one. unvote vote crusher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, JiF said: Let's lynch Smash and thank me after My #1, but he's too far away from lynch. If movement goes there I'm hoping in 2 seconds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, GATA said: about 20 mins left @32EBoozer, @Spoot-Face @The Crusher @JustEndTheSuffering @Smashmouth @kdels62 @Jets Voice of Reason @BUM-KNEE @Drums @pdxgreen @Beaver @jvill 51 @JiF @Integrity28 @Jetscode1 @Stark @BrickTamland @CTM @Verbal @ID.@Beaver don't @ me....lol im here, have been in and out the last hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, GATA said: about 20 mins left @32EBoozer, @Spoot-Face @The Crusher @JustEndTheSuffering @Smashmouth @kdels62 @Jets Voice of Reason @BUM-KNEE @Drums @pdxgreen @Beaver @jvill 51 @JiF @Integrity28 @Jetscode1 @Stark @BrickTamland @CTM @Verbal @ID.@Beaver Why are you tagging me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I tagged everyone cry me a river 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustEndTheSuffering Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, GATA said: I tagged everyone cry me a river 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 unvote vote smash lets try Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, CTM said: My #1, but he's too far away from lynch. If movement goes there I'm hoping in 2 seconds We could. There are bunch of people not on yours or Crushers train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Stark said: crush pinged hard yesterday., today he is buddying up and mentoring. Where did he Ping for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, CTM said: unvote vote smash lets try Here we go lynch Smash, here we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Verbal said: Incorrect - allow me to explain why: 1. Scum would be much more likely fake claim Doc or Cop to try and gauge reactions and draw out the real Doc or Cop via counterclaim or just seeing who reacted strongest. Highly unlikely option. 2. That never happens. Town will not allow a SK to live past a few phases. In other words, if I didn't start shooting scum, I'd be lynched with a quickness. A D1 revealed SK, even if fake revealed as vig, would never be able to win the game. Highly unlikely option. 3. This is the scenario. A benefit, but not a big one is absolutely correct. That said, it has the POTENTIAL to hurt scum and therefore scum will want to take me out if they can't get me lynched; therefore, it makes sense to keep the vig around longer and allow it to shoot at a consensus target. Regardless of that result, I'm fully expecting to eventually be killed by the scum team as the longer a vig stays alive, the more likely the chance they start hitting scum with their shots. If you're playing the odds, you need to go with the most likely scenario, which is #3. #1 is a no-no for scum to do, and #2 is the only other potentially viable situation, but unlikely because if scum haven't killed me after a handful of nights, the town can just lynch me and I'd lose either way. As I'm a townie, I don't mind dying to help the town win. BUT.....the smart move is to let the mafia team deal with me. Don't do their work for them. Yeah I probably should have put the probabilities in there but I agree with your assessment it goes in order from least likely to most likely. At the same time, whoever we lynch is most likely town. And while there is benefit for keeping you around if you are telling the truth, it's also largely offset by the cost it will take for you to prove your claim: potentially giving scum an extra night kill if we pick the wrong consensus target (plus, scum will have the ability to influence this target, increasing the chances we pick wrong). Plus, if there is a serial killer out there, there's the additional cost of him getting an extra free kill without having to reveal his existence at night. I still might change my vote, but I'm comfortable with it right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Day 1 Vote Count CTM (5)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR Verbal (4) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC, jvill 51 Smash (3) - JiF, Verbal, CTM Spoot (1) - Crusher JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape JiF (1) - Smash Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch. DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH: Friday, 3 PM EST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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