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Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Mafia - Game Thread


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I’m so glad I dropped out. LOL Puppy came home today. No cancer. She should be alright. Thanks all for your kind thoughts/words. 

I’m back at the pet hospital now. Not out of the woods yet, but they’ve lowered the chance that it’s bladder cancer. Hoping to avoid surgery. She’s eating again, they managed to get a catheter in, and

Rat bastards. Go town.

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Day 1 Vote Count

  • CTM (6)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, jvill 51, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver
  • Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR
  • Verbal (3) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC
  • Smash (2) -  JiF, Verbal
  • Spoot (1) - Crusher
  • JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape
  • Ape (1) - CTM
  • JiF (1) - Smash

Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot


With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch.  

DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH:  Friday, 3 PM EST

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Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios:

1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road.

2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable.

3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate.

I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds.

Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal.

 

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3 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Take it easy dude. Just hang out in the game  as it go’s on you will get the jest. Still in early joke Time. 

And now that Ape joined the entire game is a joke.

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12 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios:

1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road.

2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable.

3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate.

I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds.

Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal.

 

Incorrect - allow me to explain why:

1.  Scum would be much more likely fake claim Doc or Cop to try and gauge reactions and draw out the real Doc or Cop via counterclaim or just seeing who reacted strongest.  Highly unlikely option.

2.  That never happens.  Town will not allow a SK to live past a few phases.  In other words, if I didn't start shooting scum, I'd be lynched with a quickness.  A D1 revealed SK, even if fake revealed as vig, would never be able to win the game.  Highly unlikely option.

3.  This is the scenario.  A benefit, but not a big one is absolutely correct.  That said, it has the POTENTIAL to hurt scum and therefore scum will want to take me out if they can't get me lynched; therefore, it makes sense to keep the vig around longer and allow it to shoot at a consensus target.  Regardless of that result, I'm fully expecting to eventually be killed by the scum team as the longer a vig stays alive, the more likely the chance they start hitting scum with their shots.

 

If you're playing the odds, you need to go with the most likely scenario, which is #3.  #1 is a no-no for scum to do, and #2 is the only other potentially viable situation, but unlikely because if scum haven't killed me after a handful of nights, the town can just lynch me and I'd lose either way.

 

As I'm a townie, I don't mind dying to help the town win.  BUT.....the smart move is to let the mafia team deal with me.  Don't do their work for them.

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Day 1 Vote Count

  • CTM (5)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver
  • Verbal (4) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC, jvill 51
  • Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR
  • Smash (2) -  JiF, Verbal
  • Spoot (1) - Crusher
  • JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape
  • Ape (1) - CTM
  • JiF (1) - Smash

Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot


With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch.  

DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH:  Friday, 3 PM EST

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3 hours ago, GATA said:

^ sry dirty hippies are not trusted esp when they're being lazy and trying to lynch our only confirmed townie.

^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm?

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1 minute ago, CTM said:

^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm?

^no one is jumping on the Ape train sugar

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2 minutes ago, CTM said:

^ i've provided the science, can't you interface with deepmind through the interwebs or something and confirm?

Are you seriously going to stick with a vote on Ape when we need to consolidate for a DL in 40 minutes?

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2 minutes ago, GATA said:

^no one is jumping on the Ape train sugar

I was originally angered by your refusal to support my endeavor, but then you called me sugar and i got all swoony :wub: :wub: :wub: 

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8 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Are you seriously going to stick with a vote on Ape when we need to consolidate for a DL in 40 minutes?

I'm here mr indeterminate genitals.

I'm not giving up my ape case yet, i think it's solid

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31 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

Ok so here's how I see the various scenarios:

1. Verbal is lying, is scum: We should be able to find this out soon enough, but the longer we wait the more chance it gives the other scum to manipulate the situation and set themselves up for down the road.

2. Verbal is lying, is serial killer: Again, he's not much of a risk to us in the short term. As soon as he goes off script, he's dead. BUT, that also gives him the option to stay on script, earning trust and keeping himself around for longer when he can do more damage. Scum will know he's not one of them and try to take him out, but the chances he draws doctor protection go up, making everyone else more vulnerable.

3. Verbal is telling the truth, is vigilante: Obviously a benefit but really not a big one. We'd need to find out soon, meaning directing him to shoot into the crowd where odds are we're giving the scum a free extra night kill, and scum won't let him stick around long enough to be that much of a threat whether he can shoot more than once or not. It'd be nice to have a confirmed non-scum to reduce our lynch options, but we'd always have to be worried that he's the serial killer. PLUS, if there is a serial killer out there as well, he can use Verbal to stay in the shadows for longer and manipulate.

I'm not really worried about letting him stick around, but I'm also not seeing much benefit. Is it better to lynch someone else Day 1 when there's not much to go on and we're most likely lynching town anyway? Or take a shot at lynching Verbal, where the potential benefit is high if he's lying and the downside is low even if he's telling the truth? I'm gonna play the odds.

Unvote CTM. Vote Verbal.

 

Good post.  However, there is merit in letting this play out.  Information is power in this game and right now, the only information we have even it's allegedly, is Verb is a Vig.  That might not seem like a lot of information but when you have nothing, it's something and it will become very clear later on.  

That and while I too dont believe him, we're not going to get a huge swing in his favor in the next 30 minutes.

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I was just doing a reread, Smash was disgusting yesterday.  Disgusting.  The crap he was pushing, the outright neglect of reading the game, he was heavily participating on D1 which he never does, his in ability to accept simple mafia concepts, the obvious inaccurate defense around the doc directing and he's the most risked adversed player in the game who never gave a single nod to the fact Verb could end up killing town, lying or SK.  Probably because he wants him too help his team out.

Let's lynch Smash and thank me after

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top 3 are smash, crusher and the gatablot

Science proves ape lynch is best move for town. I tried.

I guess can't bring a cow to water but I can lynch one.

unvote

vote crusher

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4 minutes ago, GATA said:

don't @ me....lol

im here, have been in and out the last hour

 

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4 minutes ago, CTM said:

My #1, but he's too far away from lynch. If movement goes there I'm hoping in 2 seconds

We could.  There are bunch of people not on yours or Crushers train.

 

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5 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Incorrect - allow me to explain why:

1.  Scum would be much more likely fake claim Doc or Cop to try and gauge reactions and draw out the real Doc or Cop via counterclaim or just seeing who reacted strongest.  Highly unlikely option.

2.  That never happens.  Town will not allow a SK to live past a few phases.  In other words, if I didn't start shooting scum, I'd be lynched with a quickness.  A D1 revealed SK, even if fake revealed as vig, would never be able to win the game.  Highly unlikely option.

3.  This is the scenario.  A benefit, but not a big one is absolutely correct.  That said, it has the POTENTIAL to hurt scum and therefore scum will want to take me out if they can't get me lynched; therefore, it makes sense to keep the vig around longer and allow it to shoot at a consensus target.  Regardless of that result, I'm fully expecting to eventually be killed by the scum team as the longer a vig stays alive, the more likely the chance they start hitting scum with their shots.

 

If you're playing the odds, you need to go with the most likely scenario, which is #3.  #1 is a no-no for scum to do, and #2 is the only other potentially viable situation, but unlikely because if scum haven't killed me after a handful of nights, the town can just lynch me and I'd lose either way.

 

As I'm a townie, I don't mind dying to help the town win.  BUT.....the smart move is to let the mafia team deal with me.  Don't do their work for them.

Yeah I probably should have put the probabilities in there but I agree with your assessment it goes in order from least likely to most likely. At the same time, whoever we lynch is most likely town. And while there is benefit for keeping you around if you are telling the truth, it's also largely offset by the cost it will take for you to prove your claim: potentially giving scum an extra night kill if we pick the wrong consensus target (plus, scum will have the ability to influence this target, increasing the chances we pick wrong). Plus, if there is a serial killer out there, there's the additional cost of him getting an extra free kill without having to reveal his existence at night.

I still might change my vote, but I'm comfortable with it right now.

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Day 1 Vote Count

  • CTM (5)- JustEndTheSuffering, Drums, GATA, pdxgreen, Beaver
  • Crusher (4) - Stark, kdels62, Brick, JVOR
  • Verbal (4) - ID., BUM-KNEE, JC, jvill 51
  • Smash (3) -  JiF, Verbal, CTM
  • Spoot (1) - Crusher
  • JustEndTheSuffering (1) - Ape
  • JiF (1) - Smash

Not Voting (2) - 32EBoozer, Spoot


With 21 players alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch.  

DAY 1 DEADLINE TO ACHIEVE A LYNCH:  Friday, 3 PM EST

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