What Effect Will (not being involved with) the 2019 Draft Have On The GM

[Vader]

Notoriously hired after the 2019 draft — like right after, JD was reduced to stewarding the roster and draft picks (not his picks) for the past year. He’s already faced some scrutiny (ex: Khalil) and the last year has already been controversial — half like his frugal FA/roster approach and half don’t. 

We’ve seen him in action for a year but not on draft day. 

We have no idea how he will operate. It’s his first draft as a GM. 
 

Question is: will JD tend conservative bc basically, he can’t **** up his first pick after a year already in the job? Would he then not likely take a flier on a more upsidey prospect or position of need, either being more risky?

When it comes to position, there are OL available that may project as RT, even LT, but could easily kick inside to G. Redundancy built in. Wills. Wills plays RT, but also projects to LT. Ideally, you want to draft the LT in the top 11. Wills can come into camp and get plugged into LT and if he fails there, gets kicked to RT. Then to G. Trap door. The OL category has a built in position group failsafe. It’s the more conservative position group to draft vs WR, which has a much higher bust rate.
 

Draft Jerry Jeudy and you might have an all-pro year 1 or year 2. You may have drafted Jerry Rice. Huge upside. HOF. No one is putting any of these OLs in the pro bowl even after a year or two. Jeudy OTH — people think he is SPECIAL. But there are major questions as to whether he can even flex to X. What if his slot game doesn’t translate to the NFL, or not right away? There’s no fallback. He’d struggle to find the field with Crowder and an NFL offense out there. 
 

Lamb — people think he’s SPECIAL too — he may be a more conservative, safer WR than Jeudy: his size and ability to play X, but the same issue remains — a top 11 pick, WR, with a huge bust rate.  Even though the upside on these top tier WRs is sick, and possibility soon.

 

JD’s composure - not affected right now. But the draft and his picks will be an inflection point — on his capability, and retroactively define his last year and this year almost simultaneously.

 

Macacgnan was lucky — his consensus picks always fell to him. What will JD see as HIS best strategy?
 

 

 

[Dunnie]

JD just needs to tune out the noise and execute his plan. Kiper etc can go **** themselves.

 

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[Joejet]

29 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

JD just needs to tune out the noise and execute his plan. Kiper etc can go **** themselves.

 

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I agree, and I think he will.  He’s got a six year contract and is going to build a team as he believes it should be built.  I think he’ll use a lot of what he learned from the Ravens organization (Ozzie). He likes players that love football and have good character.  He is in it for the long haul.

[JustInFudge]

If he executes on what he said is the most important aspect to building this team; protecting Sam and getting him weapons, I think he'll be just fine because I think the OT and Jeudy/Lamb are safe picks. Maybe none of them are future All Pro's like Jamal Adams but they're all going to be steady forces at the next level IMO.

Stay the course.

[Lith]

I am reallyl curious to see how aggressivey he works the draft.  Will he stay put and let the draft come to him, or will he move around based upon how the board breaks.  Our last two GMs have been patient to a fault.  Pretty sure Macc's only trade ups in 5 years were Darnold (done a month prior to the draft) and Brandon Shell.  So, in 5 years, he only traded up once, and I can't remember Idzik ever trading at all during draft. 

Will Douglas be more aggressive to go after players he wants?  Conversely, if they guys he is looking for come off the board prior to his pick, how willing will he be to trade back?  When he was with the Eagles, they moved around (both up and back) on draft day an awful lot, which is something we have not seen since Tanny.

If we go OT at 11, I would not mind seeing him trade up from 48 to grab an impact WR.  Also, if there is an early run on OTs in top 10, I would not mind seeing a trade back to mid teens.

Really curious to see how he navigates draft day as the draft unfolds.

[LSJF]

5 hours ago, Vader said:

Question is: will JD tend conservative bc basically, he can’t **** up his first pick after a year already in the job? Would he then not likely take a flier on a more upsidey prospect or position of need, either being more risky?

This has been our history, boom or bust, we all know the ratio for us has been BOOM....I’m ok with conservative, get a team of football players... best player available in position of need(unless it’s a ridiculous reach, Hackenburg)...

[Beerfish]

The top receivers are being grossly overrated all of a sudden in comparison to the olineman imo.

Jeudy and Lamb are good prospects, worthy of top 15 picks, they are not calvin johnson, they are certainly not jerry rice.

I've said often for this draft, the best Wr in the draft will not be one of the top two picked.

[JetFreak89]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

I am reallyl curious to see how aggressivey he works the draft.  Will he stay put and let the draft come to him, or will he move around based upon how the board breaks.  Our last two GMs have been patient to a fault.  Pretty sure Macc's only trade ups in 5 years were Darnold (done a month prior to the draft) and Brandon Shell.  So, in 5 years, he only traded up once, and I can't remember Idzik ever trading at all during draft. 

Will Douglas be more aggressive to go after players he wants?  Conversely, if they guys he is looking for come off the board prior to his pick, how willing will he be to trade back?  When he was with the Eagles, they moved around (both up and back) on draft day an awful lot, which is something we have not seen since Tanny.

If we go OT at 11, I would not mind seeing him trade up from 48 to grab an impact WR.  Also, if there is an early run on OTs in top 10, I would not mind seeing a trade back to mid teens.

Really curious to see how he navigates draft day as the draft unfolds.

I would think that he will handle draft day trades the same way he handled FA this year...he'll have a set calculation on how they value each player and each draft pick and will stick to his guns regardless of how the board falls. Seems to me like he has dealt with this FA showing very little emotion or impulse buying so I would hope he continues that into the draft as well. Like you though, I can't wait to find out how this plays out in a couple weeks. 

[slats]

Last year's draft has zero impact on this year's. This is Joe Douglas' first draft. The timing of his hiring was unusual, but should also be beneficial as far as this year's draft goes. He's spent the whole year with the team, coaches, and scouts, and should now have a great feel for what the team needs. He's also not married to anyone outside of maybe Darnold, and if that's the case, he should be doing all he can to get Sam to the next step. Which is my expectation. 

I want him to take his BAP at #11, assuming that will be an OT or WR. Huge need, meet best available player. I still expect an OT up top, but if he has a WR rated higher than the remaining OTs, and he can't execute a trade down, he needs to take the WR. 

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The top receivers are being grossly overrated all of a sudden in comparison to the olineman imo.

Jeudy and Lamb are good prospects, worthy of top 15 picks, they are not calvin johnson, they are certainly not jerry rice.

I've said often for this draft, the best Wr in the draft will not be one of the top two picked.

The phrase "generational talent" gets thrown around a lot but Calvin Johnson was just that and those dudes dont come around often.   Jeudy or Lamb dont need to be HOF'ers or all time greats, to be a great pick.  They just need to be solid year over year producers.  I personally think Jeudy will be the best of the bunch when it's all said and done.  If he was 2 inches taller with a little bigger frame, he'd be a lock in the top 5 IMO.  We havent seen as refined of a WR like him come out in a long time and I think people are overlooking that aspect because he's not wowing anyone with his size/physicality.  

 

[Carnival Barker]

It will be interesting to evaluate this draft 3-5 years down the road, and see what (if any) effect the current situation has on how the draft plays out. 

More first round busts?  More late round gems?  Or will we see the opposite, and people begin to question the yearly over-evaluation during the draft process?

[Beerfish]

In the end Douglas needs a very good draft, he has to select good player in positions of value throughout the draft.

Is he going to hit on everything?  No but he has to hit on mot of the picks.

[Matt39]

Will be interesting to see how the Browns fair moving forward compared to the Jets in terms of roster construction. The Jets hired the more traditional old school personnel guy from Philly and the Browns hired the their new-aged analytics guy. 

Berry seems pretty impressive:

 

[T0mShane]

33 minutes ago, slats said:

Last year's draft has zero impact on this year's. This is Joe Douglas' first draft. The timing of his hiring was unusual, but should also be beneficial as far as this year's draft goes. He's spent the whole year with the team, coaches, and scouts, and should now have a great feel for what the team needs. He's also not married to anyone outside of maybe Darnold, and if that's the case, he should be doing all he can to get Sam to the next step. Which is my expectation. 

I want him to take his BAP at #11, assuming that will be an OT or WR. Huge need, meet best available player. I still expect an OT up top, but if he has a WR rated higher than the remaining OTs, and he can't execute a trade down, he needs to take the WR. 

I think the timing of his hire will play a huge role in how he proceeds. Usually, a GM gets brought in to clean up the mess after the fact. Douglas was brought in while the house was still on fire. He had just scouted guys like Polite and Q and Edoga, etc, so he’s going to have some intimate knowledge of the disaster that was Maccagnan’s process.  
 

The good news is that Maccagnan generally drafted high character guys, which seems to be a prerequisite for Douglas. The bad news is that too many of them suck. Judging by the lack of urgency in free agency, it would appear that they’re shamelessly resigned to a multi-year fumigation, and have settled on fortifying the middle class talent on the roster right away. Given that, I’d expect a fairly conservative approach to the draft with an eye toward setting up more aggressive moves in the future. Nothing for the short term, no project players, and nothing overly exciting. It’ll be the OT in round one, possibly an OLB in round two, and the rest will be guys they hope will contribute in 2021. Stuff like that. It’ll annoy everyone, but I think Douglas and Gase are pretty pragmatic (maybe to a fault), so I don’t think we’ll see the splashy sh*t. 

[TNJet]

JD proved to me in FA he has a plan. His plan will be more clear in the draft. I'm excited because I think this guy knows how to build a football team.

[JohnnyLV]

I think Douglas showed in free agency to a degree that he just DGAF about perception of how he is doing his job. When he was hired, he said he would approach it a certain way and he has done just that. He will do whatever he feels is necessary at each spot. If he stays put it does not mean he will always be conservative, if he trades a lot doesnt mean he will be aggressive. Trades will be a little harder this year because of the technology so maybe there is less there too.

A big hint on how he approaches things is if somehow he faced a situation with 2OT left Jeudy and Lamb there and say Okudah dropping. Unlikely but it would be super insightful.

[T0mShane]

9 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Trades will be a little harder this year because of the technology so maybe there is less there too.

I wonder if the opposite will be true, that because coaches, in particular, didn’t get to spend one on one time with these players, if there are fewer picks made based on a coach falling in love with a prospect because of a sob story interview or similar nonsense, and now they have to rely on game tape? We always hear about players getting overdrafted because a coach “has a good feelin’” about one of them and they end up getting burned. If teams have less anecdotal information, maybe they’re more inclined to move around to get players they’re confident in based on what they know

[rangerous]

i do know that anyone should be that concerned with this being douglas' first draft.  he must have learned something while working for newsome.  maybe the only issue is working with gase instead of for him.  i don't have an opinion of gase but it seems like head coaches tend to be in conflict with their gm's all the time when it comes to the draft.  we'll see if douglas can have a good balance between team needs and the right player at the right draft position.

[derp]

This roster has almost no long-term commitments. I think there are like 15 guys who have contracts that go out more than next season or the following. A decent chunk of that is last year’s draft class. Most of the rest are OL FA’s. And the long snapper.

That indicates to me that Douglas wants to build the core of this roster through the draft and this draft is his time to start that. I think he’s got his eyes on a few guys he’d take at eleven but there’s a really good chance he moves down. Although I think maybe just into the mid teens where he can get one of those guys we’re all talking about at eleven. Preferably Thomas.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I wonder if the opposite will be true, that because coaches, in particular, didn’t get to spend one on one time with these players, if there are fewer picks made based on a coach falling in love with a prospect because of a sob story interview or similar nonsense, and now they have to rely on game tape? We always hear about players getting overdrafted because a coach “has a good feelin’” about one of them and they end up getting burned. If teams have less anecdotal information, maybe they’re more inclined to move around to get players they’re confident in based on what they know

Yes that's a possibility too. Will be an interesting draft no doubt

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I think the timing of his hire will play a huge role in how he proceeds. Usually, a GM gets brought in to clean up the mess after the fact. Douglas was brought in while the house was still on fire. He had just scouted guys like Polite and Q and Edoga, etc, so he’s going to have some intimate knowledge of the disaster that was Maccagnan’s process.  
 

The good news is that Maccagnan generally drafted high character guys, which seems to be a prerequisite for Douglas. The bad news is that too many of them suck. Judging by the lack of urgency in free agency, it would appear that they’re shamelessly resigned to a multi-year fumigation, and have settled on fortifying the middle class talent on the roster right away. Given that, I’d expect a fairly conservative approach to the draft with an eye toward setting up more aggressive moves in the future. Nothing for the short term, no project players, and nothing overly exciting. It’ll be the OT in round one, possibly an OLB in round two, and the rest will be guys they hope will contribute in 2021. Stuff like that. It’ll annoy everyone, but I think Douglas and Gase are pretty pragmatic (maybe to a fault), so I don’t think we’ll see the splashy sh*t. 

He doesnt need to be splashy.  He could let this draft come to him and as long as he executes, I think he can find starters going into the 4th RD. 

I also dont think he's done this offseason.  I feel like a Clowney, trade for a OT or trade for a WR are still potentials.  I really cant imagine going into the year with just Crowder/Perriman/Doctson/Smith/Rookie or 2.   He said he's committed to building around Sam, he's shown that with prioritizing OL/signing Perriman but I just think that's a very risk WR group if you're truly committed to building around Sam.

[T0mShane]

16 minutes ago, JiF said:

He doesnt need to be splashy.  He could let this draft come to him and as long as he executes, I think he can find starters going into the 4th RD. 

I also dont think he's done this offseason.  I feel like a Clowney, trade for a OT or trade for a WR are still potentials.  I really cant imagine going into the year with just Crowder/Perriman/Doctson/Smith/Rookie or 2.   He said he's committed to building around Sam, he's shown that with prioritizing OL/signing Perriman but I just think that's a very risk WR group if you're truly committed to building around Sam.

I can’t see him springing for Clowney because he has a hard on for high-character guys, and it would appear that Clowney has some douche to him. As for receiver, I guess he could go get Alshon on the cheap, but if Alshon had issues with Wentz, I don’t know if he’d have better luck with Darnold. Who else is there?

[Larz]

He’s proven that he can hold his water and stick to his plan 

 

[Beerfish]

What douglas as a gm has done to this point is irrelevant.  May 1st and we will have an idea if he is any good.

 

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, JiF said:

I also dont think he's done this offseason.  I feel like a Clowney, trade for a OT or trade for a WR are still potentials.  I really cant imagine going into the year with just Crowder/Perriman/Doctson/Smith/Rookie or 2.   He said he's committed to building around Sam, he's shown that with prioritizing OL/signing Perriman but I just think that's a very risk WR group if you're truly committed to building around Sam.

  

14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I can’t see him springing for Clowney because he has a hard on for high-character guys, and it would appear that Clowney has some douche to him. As for receiver, I guess he could go get Alshon on the cheap, but if Alshon had issues with Wentz, I don’t know if he’d have better luck with Darnold. Who else is there?

 

I'd like to see a surprise trade for one of these types, either before or after the draft:

• Keenan Allen
• Robert Woods
• Will Fuller
• Sammy Watkins
• Mike Williams
• Marquise Goodwin
• Marqise Lee

Allen is a FA after this season and would save the Chargers nearly $11M.  

Fuller is a FA after this season, and trading him would save Houston $10M+ on the cap.  They now have Cooks, Stills and Cobb as 3 of their top 4 WRs so maybe he's expendable?

Williams is in year 4 of his rookie deal, and the Chargers need to determine if he's worth the 5th year option next month.  I believe the 5th year option for a WR picked in the top 10 from that year is something like $13.5M.

[Beerfish]

Please please please try and trade with Bill O'Brien

[pdxgreen]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Will be interesting to see how the Browns fair moving forward compared to the Jets in terms of roster construction. The Jets hired the more traditional old school personnel guy from Philly and the Browns hired the their new-aged analytics guy. 

Berry seems pretty impressive:

 

Has any non-fan in their entire life said, "I am interested in what the Cleveland Browns are doing?"

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

  

 

I'd like to see a surprise trade for one of these types, either before or after the draft:

• Keenan Allen
• Robert Woods
• Will Fuller
• Sammy Watkins
• Mike Williams
• Marquise Goodwin
• Marqise Lee

Allen is a FA after this season and would save the Chargers nearly $11M.  

Fuller is a FA after this season, and trading him would save Houston $10M+ on the cap.  They now have Cooks, Stills and Cobb as their top 3 WRs so maybe he's expendable?

Williams is in year 4 of his rookie deal, and the Chargers need to determine if he's worth the 5th year option next month.  I believe the 5th year option for a WR picked in the top 10 from that year is something like $13.5M.

I’d love Allen, kinda meh on the rest. I’m not sure that the Chargers would want to dump Mike Williams for cheap.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I’d love Allen, kinda meh on the rest. I’m not sure that the Chargers would want to dump Mike Williams for cheap.

Woods is sure-handed and Fuller would be a lot of fun.  What would be your issues with those 2?  The potential price to acquire?

[Defense Wins Championships]

5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Please please please try and trade with Bill O'Brien

Maybe we could convince him to trade his starting DE in Whitney Mercilus (former 1st round pick) and line him up alongside of Quinnen Williams on our D-Line for a bag of chips?

[JustInFudge]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I can’t see him springing for Clowney because he has a hard on for high-character guys, and it would appear that Clowney has some douche to him. As for receiver, I guess he could go get Alshon on the cheap, but if Alshon had issues with Wentz, I don’t know if he’d have better luck with Darnold. Who else is there?

I dont think Clowney is someone you worry about off the field, he seems like a high effort guy too though maybe not the leader type.  Supposedly he liked Robby, I think Robby has had a little more spice in his life than Clowney.  idk.  Jeffrey doesnt like Wentz because he's entitled dbag.  Apparently nobody on the team liked Wentz and the guys heavily favored Foles.  Besides, we're talking about a guy who saw his best years with Jay Cutler. 

Not sure where he can go but I cant imagine he feels good about going into the season with this WR core.   Maybe they resign Thomas or there is some sleeper trade out there we're not in the know of.  no clue, just doesnt feel complete. 

[legends of the fall]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Will be interesting to see how the Browns fair moving forward compared to the Jets in terms of roster construction. The Jets hired the more traditional old school personnel guy from Philly and the Browns hired the their new-aged analytics guy. 

Berry seems pretty impressive:

 

The Berry/Stefanski duo seems pretty solid. 

[NYJ1]

Not much. The bottom line is Mike Macagnan was one of the worst GM's the Jets have ever hired. He left the cupboards virtually empty... Terrible drafting coupled with poor FA moves has left Joe Douglas with no choice but to start over pretty much from scratch. The only pieces there are to build around are additions through FA and a few (two to be exact) draft choices.

[Bungaman]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Please please please try and trade with Bill O'Brien

This.

 

Scour their roster and see if there's a way to pry any of the talent loose on the cheap, as O'Brien clearly has no clue as to what he is doing, and the panic button in Houston has an elephant sitting on it.

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

This.

 

Scour their roster and see if there's a way to pry any of the talent loose on the cheap, as O'Brien clearly has no clue as to what he is doing, and the panic button in Houston has an elephant sitting on it.

 

Will Fuller!  Texans have Cooks, Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb at WR.  Fuller is a FA after the season.  Houston saves $10.5M by trading him now.