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Darnold is NOT a bust


DarnoldHomer
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13 hours ago, varjet said:

To really get a sense for how bad Darnold is doing now, Winston and Mariotta played under their 5th year option, and Tannehill under Tannenbaum (surprise) was extended prior to year 5 and effectively paid $20mm for year 5.  Bortles was extended prior to year 5 for about $18mm, slightly less than the 5th year option. 

So if we are thinking that Darnold is not worth slightly less than the $25mm current fifth year option for a QB (hint:  as of now he is not), that makes Darnold an epic fail when compared to the recent first round QBs that did not work out for their original teams.  

At this point we keep to the tank and reboot.

Maybe but at the same time did any of those teams have the chance to draft a generational talent? The jets apparently do and that should factor into what they do with darnold. As you say he’s not worth 25 million at the moment.  How much of his success or lack thereof is on him or the talent around him is debatable.

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Again. Perriman is NOT an upgrade over Robbie. And Griffen hasn’t played. I know this is hard for you but your wrong or how about this....what you wrote was inaccurate. 
And no signature game???? What was beating Deshawn Watson in Texas?  When he was the BEST looking player on the field? How about the Raider game just last year right? At MetLife where he clearly played better than Carr. Or game against Dallas last year and he was better than Dak?? Did these games NOT happen??  Am I dreaming?

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2 minutes ago, DarnoldHomer said:

Again. Perriman is NOT an upgrade over Robbie. And Griffen hasn’t played. I know this is hard for you but your wrong or how about this....what you wrote was inaccurate. 
And no signature game???? What was beating Deshawn Watson in Texas?  When he was the BEST looking player on the field? How about the Raider game just last year right? At MetLife where he clearly played better than Carr. Or game against Dallas last year and he was better than Dak?? Did these games NOT happen??  Am I dreaming?

 

It was in New Jersey and the Jets lost.

So that particular game you're talking about did not happen

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Just now, TeddEY said:

At least when we’ve reached the “etymology of the word bust” stage of the conversation, we can all agree it’s time for a new QB.

I think we can all agree that if Trevor Lawrence is available then it's time for a new QB. 

I think most will agree that if Fields is available then it's time for a new QB.

I think no agreement whatsoever beyond those two options

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For the record your Honor. That mad scramble against Bills as a rookie and DT Williams was a highlight play of highlight plays. How many QBs make that play???  
Rodgers. Steve Young. Fran Tarkington. Maybe Murray or Lamar. Maybe. 
His 46 yard gash on TNF this year was epic. 
How many QBs make that play? From a collapsing pocket spin Move to the House. 
Again. A small handful.
That rollout throw against Baltimore last year to crowder (?).  A window doesn’t get smaller actually. Ever. Didn’t crowder drop TD the play before too??
How about Sams play to Berrios for a TD this year. Sam running to left. Berrios running to right. Like I said. ELITE ability. 
Now the complaint on a lack of consistency. The triple coverage decisions. Those are fair too. Have to be addressed/answered by Darnold. I agree. To be great you have to be consistently good. A lot of factors in that. There has been no consistency with Jets management and personnel either

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7 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

I think we can all agree that if Trevor Lawrence is available then it's time for a new QB. 

I think most will agree that if Fields is available then it's time for a new QB.

I think no agreement whatsoever beyond those two options

Darnold's presence on the 2021 roster does not need to be contingent on which QB's are available to us in the draft.  If we're out of range for Lawrence or Fields, take a serious look at the next set of QB's on your board.  Trade down if needed.  If we don't like those, bring in a veteran bridge option to compete with James Morgan, Mike White, etc for the 2021 starting job, and try again in the draft in 2022.

Under no circumstance does it make any sense to run it back with Sam Darnold next season.  He's not the guy, and he hits free agency after the 2021 season.  Trade him rather than letting him walk for nothing.

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5 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Darnold may or may not be a bust (that's a strong word) but however, he is (as a 3rd year QB) ranked and rated as the 32nd and dead last QB amongst all starting NFL QB's. 

And the history of QB's who have finished their respected seasons as the dead last rated QB is not something to build around ala... See for yourselves. 

Sam Darnold: 65.9 (2020).
Andy Dalton: 78.3 (2019).
Josh Rosen: 66.7 (2018).
DeShone Kizer: 60.5 (2017).
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 69.6 (2016).
Ryan Mallett: 67.9 (2015).
Blake Bortles: 69.5 (2014).
Geno Smith: 66.5 (2013).
Matt Cassel: 66.7 (2012).
Blaine Gabbert: 65.4 (2011).
Jimmy Clausen: 58.4 (2010).
Jamarcus Russell: 50.0 (2009).
Derek Anderson: 66.5 (2008).
Kellen Clemens: 60.9 (2007).
Andrew Walter: 55.8 (2006).
Kyle Orton: 59.7 (2005).
AJ Feeley: 61.7 (2004).
Kordell Stewart: 56.8 (2003).
Joey Harrington: 59.9 (2002).
Jon Kitna: 61.1 (2001).
Ryan Leaf: 56.2 (2000).

(Sam is mediocre, and a career NFL backup, at best). 

Trevor Lawrence can not come soon enough. 

except the season is not over

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Darnold's presence on the 2021 roster does not need to be contingent on which QB's are available to us in the draft.  If we're out of range for Lawrence or Fields, take a serious look at the next set of QB's on your board.  Trade down if needed.  If we don't like those, bring in a veteran bridge option to compete with James Morgan, Mike White, etc for the 2021 starting job, and try again in the draft in 2022.

Under no circumstance does it make any sense to run it back with Sam Darnold next season.  He's not the guy, and he hits free agency after the 2021 season.  Trade him rather than letting him walk for nothing.

If Darnold is as bad as you think he is, this scenario will never happen.

But if he manages to lead this team to 4 wins and out of the running for Lawrence or Fields, we can extend Sam. The money is not that outrageous.

Frankly, my concern about winning is not losing out on Lawrence or Fields, is having Gase save his job. If he is the coach, none of this matters.

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4 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

If Darnold is as bad as you think he is, this scenario will never happen.

But if he manages to lead this team to 4 wins and out of the running for Lawrence or Fields, we can extend Sam. The money is not that outrageous.

Frankly, my concern about winning is not losing out on Lawrence or Fields, is having Gase save his job. If he is the coach, none of this matters.

Joe Flacco had the same amount of TDs against the Pats as Sam Darnold had all season. 

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11 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

But if he manages to lead this team to 4 wins and out of the running for Lawrence or Fields, we can extend Sam. The money is not that outrageous.

What possible point would there be to extending Darnold this offseason, regardless of his performance down the stretch? 

And how do we have any clue what a contract like that would even look like, to be able to say "the money is not that outrageous"?  If you're negotiating with a QB after year 3 (the earliest point at which you can extend a QB on a rookie deal), you clearly consider him your long-term starter.  Thus he'd be in position to demand upper tier QB1 money.

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First thing I'll say is I do believe Darnold will improve. The team is starting to play better on offense - largely do to improved chemistry, and if the OL keeps improving and Crowder/Perriman/Mims can stay healthy (a big if), I think we'll see a better Darnold in the final 7 games. I also know for sure that Joe Flacco was not asked to make any difficult decisions on Monday, as they seemed to dumb down Gase's offense to simplify the playbook. The question really is how much better will he play. I'm one of the biggest Darnold defenders out there, but Darnold must put-up if he's to establish himself as a franchise QB for the NYJ. 

I don't have the data handy, but I charted out 3 projections for Darnold by calculating (1) his career statistics over his final 7 games in each of his 2 seasons; (2) his best 4 game stretches in each of his past 2 seasons; and (3) percentage of expected growth derived from data jumps across the league including his own from year 1 to year 2. For instance, Sam had a 92.7 QB Rating in his final 7 games last year; his best 4 game stretch he had a 107.5 QB Rating. In 2018, he had a 73.0 QB Rating in his final 7 games; his best 4 game stretch he had a 99.1 QB Rating (I have a lot more important stats than QB rating but trying to avoid getting too bogged into the details). 

 

Based on calculating a number of factors, here are the 3 scenarios from status quo, to improvement, to stellar (within reason... there's always the extreme scenario where Darnold implodes/explodes, but they would counter statistical norms): 

7 games Cmp Att Cmp% Yds YPA TD TD% INT INT% Rate
Scenario 1: 147 246 59.8% 1658 6.7 9 3.7% 7 2.8% 80.3
Scenario 2: 153 244 62.7% 1834 7.5 12 4.9% 5 2.0% 93.5
Scenario 3: 163 243 67.1% 2040 8.4 16 6.6% 3 1.2% 109.8

Now applied to Darnold's career overall... 

Career Cmp Att Cmp% Yds YPA TD TD% INT INT% Rate
Scenario 1: 771 1292 59.7% 8592 6.7 48 3.7% 41 3.2% 78.7
Scenario 2: 777 1290 60.2% 8768 6.8 51 4.0% 39 3.0% 81.2
Scenario 3: 787 1289 61.1% 8974 7.0 55 4.3% 37 2.9% 84.2

 

In scenario 1, which pretty much mirrors Darnold's career statistics, would leave Darnold in a not so favorable position statistically speaking. Over the past 20 years, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb are the only QBs who had similarly percentages over their first 3 seasons yet went on to be a long-term QB for the team that drafted him. Alex Smith had the worst numbers across the board and still found success with the 49ers, but it wasn't until his trade to KC when his career really took off. 

Scenario 2 would find Darnold in a more favorable position among his peers, and would put him in the range of Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton territory, which does not necessarily scream "too good to move on" from.  

Scenario 3 would project a lot better. While there are some players in the group that had similar percentages and didn't work out (see Winston, Mariota), he's among good company with Brett Favre. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr as well.

 

 

There's that saying that "stats don't lie", but often times they do. None of the stats account for Darnold's youth (youngest day 1 starting QB in the history of the game); they don't account for coaching; they don't account for team talent. You can also skew stats to persuade one way or another; you want to compare the sacks per game Darnold has endured among QBs who made 30+ starts in their first 3 seasons (he's had 82 in 32 games), he's second only to David Carr. The difference: 56.8% completion, 2.8 TD%, 3.5 INT%.

All being said, the Jets are in a position where they will likely have a top 3 pick with a few really good QB prospects to choose from. Joe Douglas needs Darnold to give him a reason not to draft those QBs. It's not like he's not capable: Darnold has had 3-4 game stretches of elite QB play in his career with worse talent on the field. He has an offensive line that's finally gelling together, and is entering a stretch where he will have solid receiving depth (and speed!) available to him for the first time in his career, and he has extra time to get further acclimated with Loggains to master the simplified offense.

Bottom line is this: Darnold has it in him to even outperform Scenario 3 above. He has the ability to go on a late season tear the way he did in 2018 or the way Brett Favre did in 1994 (First Half: 59.5 CMP%, 6.2 YPA, 3.5 TD%, 2.5 INT% / Second Half: 65.1 CMP%, 7.1 YPA, 7.7 TD%, 2.3 INT%). Down the stretch, the lack of talent and coaching can't be a persistent excuse. Darnold has to overcome it, and if he does, the Jets will likely not draft #1 and he will continue to be the Jets QB. If he doesn't, he won't be. It's that simple. 

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2 hours ago, SAR I said:

Yes, but their thought was that the youngsters on the team could gain good experience, the OL would be improved and, surely, would be better than last season because we wouldn't get hit with injuries like that again.  Unfortunately, we did.

What we did see last year was Darnold go 6-2 and look like a Top 10 quarterback with a team with worse WR's, no TE's, and a worse OL.  So for him to struggle this year is a huge disappointment.  And what's holding him back are dumb things he should have corrected back in college like footwork, ball security, progressing through reads, breaking a huddle on time, throwing the ball away properly.  We can blame the Jets for a lot of things, but these are personal issues that he's had since forever and he isn't taking what he's taught and doing anything about it. 

SAR I

Darnold didn’t look like a top 10 QB.  Jets looked like a team that won a couple of gift games. 
Breaking huddle on time?  

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29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What possible point would there be to extending Darnold this offseason, regardless of his performance down the stretch? 

And how do we have any clue what a contract like that would even look like, to be able to say "the money is not that outrageous"?  If you're negotiating with a QB after year 3 (the earliest point at which you can extend a QB on a rookie deal), you clearly consider him your long-term starter.  Thus he'd be in position to demand upper tier QB1 money.

Extending via 5th year option, not a new contract. That money is short term and not outrageous given cap room.

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36 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Joe Flacco had the same amount of TDs against the Pats as Sam Darnold had all season. 

Are you not curious to see what Darnold can do with the 3 healthy WRs and Bechton?

Listen, if it is more of the same with the offense Flacco had, you're absolutely right. But Sam has been throwing to guys off the street all year. It will be interesting to see if he can respond after the BYE. 

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4 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

Extending via 5th year option, not a new contract. That money is short term and not outrageous given cap room.

$25M+ for Sam Darnold, even for 1 year, is indeed outrageous, and I would want Joe Douglas fired on the spot if he saw fit to do this.  We'd be paying the worst starting QB in the NFL (by far) like he's QB14.  That would be a nonsensical waste of resources.

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22 minutes ago, jgb said:

Darnold's trade value takes a hit by the draft but then decreases exponentially as the 2021 season gets closer. He's gone within days of draft IMHO.

Yep.  He needs to be gone before (or during) the draft, for sure, so we're not settling for 2022 pick(s).  

If we lock up a top 2 pick at season's end, trade negotiations should begin as soon as the league year begins.  No sense in waiting when you know you're taking a QB (and everyone else does, too).  If we do not lock up a top 2 pick, still trade him for 2021 pick(s), but Douglas could afford to wait a little bit longer to make that happen in that scenario.

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9 hours ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

I'm going to try to be objective here and support the OP.

 Sam has not had a smooth ride. He's had to work through two different offenses. He's had personal injuries and the Jets have led the league in injuries for the last 2 years am I wrong?

Throw in Mono and the pandemic, and trying to center the offense around a washed-up Le'Veon Bell, whilst also dealing with the loudmouth box safety LOL.

 Hey how about that offensive line? How about those injured starting wide receivers that he's yet to play with going into week 10?

 Sam has played sloppy. I think he's frustrated and he's pressing. I'd say he's 23 years old and doesn't have the wisdom to know any other way than to put it all on his own shoulders and try even harder.

 I will say this to some of you posters careful what you wish for. I can see Sam in a different Jersey doing just fine. Frisco, Pittsburgh, Indy... just a gut feeling.

Can you honestly say this kid's been given a fair chance? A decent even shot to show what he can do? I can't say yes.

2 yrs worth of starts...

good players lookk good even when they are on bad teams...  see Herbert

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2 hours ago, y2k8 said:

If Darnold is as bad as you think he is, this scenario will never happen.

But if he manages to lead this team to 4 wins and out of the running for Lawrence or Fields, we can extend Sam. The money is not that outrageous.

Frankly, my concern about winning is not losing out on Lawrence or Fields, is having Gase save his job. If he is the coach, none of this matters.

Darnold would have to play unbelievably well for this to be a thing - I would argue better than he is capable of playing. Even then, I would be skeptical. Sam has an established habit of playing better in garbage time - both within individual games and within NFL seasons as a whole. Not a great trait for a franchise QB. 

And yes, suddenly winning 4 games out of nowhere would be a disaster because it could conceivably save Gase's job. IMO, Gase and Darnold are tied at the hip. If Gase survives, Darnold is going to. And when Gase is canned, Darnold's time is up. 

But again, this discussion all seems highly irrelevant to me because I just don't think Sam is capable of being good to great for 7 consecutive games and I don't think the Jets are capable of winning 4 of their last 7. 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  He needs to be gone before (or during) the draft, for sure, so we're not settling for 2022 pick(s).  

If we lock up a top 2 pick at season's end, trade negotiations should begin as soon as the league year begins.  No sense in waiting when you know you're taking a QB (and everyone else does, too).  If we do not lock up a top 2 pick, still trade him for 2021 pick(s), but Douglas could afford to wait a little bit longer to make that happen in that scenario.

If we get a top 2 pick, I assume Sam will be gone before the draft. 

If we don't (which seems incredibly unlikely right now), things get interesting because it depends on what Douglas thinks of the remaining QBs in the draft and what he thinks of Morgan. I could see us taking Lance and trading Sam, I could see us bringing back Sam and having him compete against a lower draft pick/Morgan/a veteran (i.e. what the Bears did with Trubisky this year). 

To me, not getting a top 2 pick at this point is a nightmare. 

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5 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Horrible comparison with Flaçco. Has Sam ever had Mims, Crowder and Perriman on the field at the same time? That is huge. The team we saw on Monday is not winless at this point. 

"Weapons" falls flat; it's an excuse. Flacco also dealt with not having Becton most of the game. That was a huge downgrade, but so what. Darnold did have each of the 3 at various times if not together. He holds on too long, he doesn't read things, he misses open receivers. He isn't IT. 3 years in is enough of a sample and it isn't any good. 

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5 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Horrible comparison with Flaçco. Has Sam ever had Mims, Crowder and Perriman on the field at the same time? That is huge. The team we saw on Monday is not winless at this point. 

I'm not sure that we can really say this.

The team we saw on Monday lost to a bad New England team at home. Maybe the team we watched on Monday beats Denver? (although Denver beat the Pats a week after beating us)

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25 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

2 yrs worth of starts...

good players lookk good even when they are on bad teams...  see Herbert

 No surprise that as usual you have nothing positive to add to the conversation.

For what it's worth I thought Herbert would be the best quarterback in his draft class. However he has not dealt with the same adversity Sam Darnold has. Not even close.

It's the typical cynical same old Jets fan.. Gase sucks, Darnold's a bust, JD sucks, fire everybody!

Next year the new head coach will suck, Trevor Lawrence is a bust, the Johnsons should sell the team, and we never should have traded Sam to the 49ers cuz they're 10-6! Lol

How about the fans suck and the media sucks? How good would you be at your job if all you ever heard from everyone around you is how much you suck?

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Just now, Greenbloodblitz said:

 No surprise that as usual you have nothing positive to add to the conversation.

For what it's worth I thought Herbert would be the best quarterback in his draft class. However he has not dealt with the same adversity Sam Darnold has. Not even close.

It's the typical cynical same old Jets fan.. Gase sucks, Darnold's a bust, JD sucks, fire everybody!

Next year the new head coach will suck, Trevor Lawrence is a bust, the Johnsons should sell the team, and we never should have traded Sam to the 49ers cuz they're 10-6! Lol

How about the fans suck and the media sucks? How good would you be at your job if all you ever heard from everyone around you is how much you suck?

You're lost. 

People say that Sam and Gase have sucked . . . because they have sucked. 

Also, it's not only "same old Jets fans" saying that Gase sucks and Darnold is a bust. It's the vast majority of people who have watched Jets games this year - including fans of opposing teams. 

Herbert is in his first year and has already played much better than Darnold ever has. 

And Losmeister's point is entirely correct - good players tend to shine, even in bad situations. If Darnold was good - we would constantly be talking about how he was "one of the only good players on the field today" after every loss. Unfortunately, this season, he has been bad to mediocre in basically every game. 

 

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38 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

To me, not getting a top 2 pick at this point is a nightmare. 

Winning our way out of a top two pick is without a doubt the worst case scenario. It's a nightmarish "lose every game" season without the light at the end of the tunnel.

I'm with you though -- I find it highly unbelievable the Jets could pull that off. I don't think the Jets/Pats game was the result of the Jets "finally getting healthy" on offense as much as it was simply a team motivated in prime time against a division rival who also sucks. I think the Jets players didn't want to be embarrassed, thought this was a chance for a win, and wanted to put the 0-16 talk to bed going into the BYE.

I do think we really want the Jaguars to win one more game, because think the Jets will be motivated to not go 0-16. It's easier to "quit" and phone it in when you're 3-9. These guys are professionals, they won't want to actually go 0-16 so I don't think they're going to be as lifeless as they've been most of the season.

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21 minutes ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

 No surprise that as usual you have nothing positive to add to the conversation.

For what it's worth I thought Herbert would be the best quarterback in his draft class. However he has not dealt with the same adversity Sam Darnold has. Not even close.

It's the typical cynical same old Jets fan.. Gase sucks, Darnold's a bust, JD sucks, fire everybody!

Next year the new head coach will suck, Trevor Lawrence is a bust, the Johnsons should sell the team, and we never should have traded Sam to the 49ers cuz they're 10-6! Lol

How about the fans suck and the media sucks? How good would you be at your job if all you ever heard from everyone around you is how much you suck?

The fans and the media may suck, but they are not the ones that are 0-9. 

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6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

You're lost. 

People say that Sam and Gase have sucked . . . because they have sucked. 

Also, it's not only "same old Jets fans" saying that Gase sucks and Darnold is a bust. It's the vast majority of people who have watched Jets games this year - including fans of opposing teams. 

Herbert is in his first year and has already played much better than Darnold ever has. 

And Losmeister's point is entirely correct - good players tend to shine, even in bad situations. If Darnold was good - we would constantly be talking about how he was "one of the only good players on the field today" after every loss. Unfortunately, this season, he has been bad to mediocre in basically every game. 

 

Sorry brother I am not lost. The negativity on this board is ridiculous that's my first point.

My second point is the fans and media seem to want instant gratification. If we fire Adam Gase, trade Sam darnold, and fire Joe Douglas, do you really think we're getting to the Superbowl next year?

Drafting Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick, hiring a new head coach and a new general manager, is going to put us another five years out from heading to the playoffs.

 A good sauce needs time to simmer right? Rome wasn't built in a day. Mike Tyson won the title at 21 years old but he was actually boxing since he was 12 oh, and the Beatles were together for eight years before they landed in New York. LOL!

How come we can't be patient and let these guys have their plan come to fruition before we call for everybody's heads and say their busts and need to be fired?

 It's just ridiculous man it's literally been a season and a half! WTF!? I agree that what we've seen on the field sucks and is painful to watch, but there's so many other circumstances involved. That's just reality. Injuries, mono, the pandemic, come on man.

Darnold hasn't even played with his three starting wide receivers yet and it's week 10 for Christ sakes LOL!

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