The last 2 Super Bowl winners: This is the way?

[Sperm Edwards]

Emulating the recent winners is always done by sucky teams (and their fans) and always has. The last 2 SB champs built “the right way” supposedly.

Beyond just the right QB falling to their laps at just the right time, how many copycat advocates have looked at the SB teams and where the hearts of these rosters came from? Never mind how many other teams were SB-ready except for the QB, and didn’t get there. Those failed attempts are all ignored as though they never happened, even though our own 2008-2010 Jets were among those failed attempts. You’d think the only 2 attempts at building this way resulted in the last 2 SB winners ffs.

What made these teams winners was not the ridiculous chicken & egg debate about which came first, as though that’s the most important aspect, rather what went into building the rest of the teams around these QBs.

Like arguing “This is the way” but without actually acknowledging all that went into the way. Then simplistically saying the QB came later, ignoring just how much luck that perfect timing takes; and why the team shouldn’t take a QB at #2, nor trade that #2 and more for a sure-thing FQB like Watson.

2019 season champion KC Chiefs:

• ZERO = the number of 1st round picks selecting starters on the SB champion Chiefs team, outside of the LT and QB positions (themselves drafted several years apart). 
• KC’s two most dangerous weapons that made things supposedly so ready-made for Mahomes? Rounds 3 and 5. We have an extra 3rd and an extra 5th rounder this year. If those are too insignificant to rely upon, then only a fool of a GM wouldn’t keep trading each for a pick a round-higher one next year, until they eventually become the only picks that presumably matter: picks in rounds 1-2. The truth is a good GM does hit on some of these really big, and they’re major parts of any championship roster.
• KC used two 1st round picks to acquire its QB. (Jets fans are all too aware the team’s GM tried first using a pick to build the team’s core and change the culture by drafting a can’t miss prospect in Jamal Adams instead of Mahomes or Watson).
• KC had one 1st round offensive linemen they drafted (back in 2013) at LT. Check — the Jets have done this.
• KC’s RT was acquired via FA. Sounds like the Jets again.
• KC’s interior line these past 2 super bowl seasons? FAs, UDFAs, and a late 6th round pick. 
• KC did draft a center in round 2 like 6 years ago — and with all the other wepponz they wanted to keep, lost him in FA to Buffalo because you just can’t keep everyone. Their offense still didn’t fall apart, and won the SB without him. Nor did it fall apart after they also lost their starting RT either. It wasn’t until they lost both their starting tackles to injury before the super bowl that the offense fell apart, because it’s a myth that this dreamy dominant OL needs to be nothing but greatness 5 players across.
• A year later at #32 KC drafted a RB (more like the Jets’ 2nd round pick this year than any Jets 1st rounder in memory). His talent aside, no one thinks he’s the straw that stirs the drink, and was used more as a complementary piece than a feature.

Yeah, but what about 2020 Tampa Bay?

Tampa honestly wasn’t much different, in terms of some fictitious notion of building on the backs of 1st round picks until they were finally ready for a veteran, HOF, FA QB to fall from heaven & choose them at just the right time. 

• Evans was drafted in round 1 like 6 years prior, and was already on a high-end veteran contract before the SB year. (If that is an acceptable timeline, then stop the complaints; even the wackiest Watson trade proposals don’t involve giving up all their 1st round picks for the 5+ upcoming seasons.)
• Devin White drafted with the #5 pick in 2019
• Then after acquiring Brady - after several years of building the rest of their team just-so - they then drafted a RT with a mid-1st round pick as a final puzzle piece. Excellent season that Wirfs had, something tells me they could’ve gotten by with someone else if needed be.
• 7 of their starters were FAs or via trades from other teams, including their QB, both edge rushers, and more: Brady (which alone is a hell of a piece to plan on adding, years in advance); Gronk un-retired to reunite with him; Suh (also said he re-signed because of Brady, despite other offers); Jensen; Nunez-Roches; JPP; and Barrett. Not one of them drafted by the Bucs.
• In addition to those starters they also got obvious, significant contributions from Antonio Brown, Fournette, and McLendon.
• But what about building a SB team while forgoing as many as 4 1st round picks? The 2015-2018 Bucs’ 1st round picks: Jameis Winston (#1 overall has the value of 3 1st round picks, right?) + Hargreaves III + OJ Howard + Vita Vea. What is that, 4 picks with the value of at least 6 1st round picks? How did they ever build a team without these picks?

Tampa built a SB team with a big chunk of the team’s most important starters coming from other teams, and without the use of 4 first round picks from a 5-year stretch, including the #1 overall pick they could have flipped for a lot more, while instead hitting enough on some picks after round 1.

This is the way, right?

[Sperm Edwards]

OK, fine. The Cliff Notes version:

There is no magic formula of “build it first then add a QB” that’s proven as a better/smarter way; just the way these 2 teams happened to have it happen. Many other teams have tried this way and failed as well, but they’re glossed over as though the only 2 attempts resulted in these last 2 SB winners.

KC + Tampa had maybe 2-3 of their 1st round picks in their starting lineup. Jets already have two.

Jets: 10-12 years ago had a SB-ready roster, and just needed a QB good enough to hide whatever remaining shortcomings the team had. They went with Favre and then Sanchez. No rings.

Draft and add good players, including a QB good enough to win it all. Doesn’t matter which comes first; get the right QB when you can. If Winston was great it wouldn’t matter that Tampa got him earlier in the process.

[rangerous]

Good points.  The thing too is the good teams make it seem easy. Tampa, KC, the patsies all seemed to be able to pick up the right free agents or guys in trades.  They didn’t shower money on slugs like trumaine or revis part 2 or their own free agents.  We’ll see if either of these teams can keep it up for a few more seasons.

[kdels62]

I’ve said and repeated that there isn’t just a single way to build a team. Every one tries to figure out the Eagles formula back when they won and they claimed “they did it through the draft.” That wasn’t true for them and it isn’t true for Tampa. Use all of your assets well and success comes quickly. Free agency matters just as much the draft and a single victory in later rounds is much more valuable than having a multitude of first rounders. In the end, getting good players is all that matters.

[GreekJet]

You should get paid for this content @Sperm Edwards

[GreekJet]

Having an elite QB puts your team in position to compete for a championship every year. Look at the franchises that are in the playoffs every year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Wilson, Mahomes. A top QB hides a lot roster flaws. 

You could also be at that level without elite QB, but your championship window is typically shorter. 

[bitonti]

It feels like "the way" is not possible without Mike Evans and Eric fisher ie the bad draft picks of the past take years to overcome 

The Jets will require several years of rebuild before they are even average 

And comparing George Fant to Mitchell Schwartz is an absolute joke 

[Jetscode1]

As they say, many roads leads to Rome.  The bottom line for us to win is JD has to be smarter than the average bear and draft better players.  If he can do that, we have a shot, if he cannot we look a lot like the past decade.

[Rhg1084]

What do they have in common? They have two of the best QBs of all time. We need to find a QB

[TokyoJetsFan]

Both head coaches of the last 2 Super Bowl winning teams were over 60 years old.  Saleh should win one for us in about 18 years. 

[nycdan]

11 minutes ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Both head coaches of the last 2 Super Bowl winning teams were over 60 years old.  Saleh should win one for us in about 18 years. 

They both have two-word city names.  

Checked that box!

[playtowinthegame]

Get a great quarterback either on the front end or the back end of building a quality roster. Know when to bet heavy once you're inside a window to win a championship, i.e.,  like the Rams going all in with Stafford recently. You need to get a little lucky too when it comes to injuries.

[Beerfish]

Both teams built their team FIRST and then got their QB who slotted into a team built for success.

Tampa did not add Brady to a 2 win team and then tried to build the team.

KC did not add mahommes to a 2 win team and then let him get his ass kicked for 3 years trying to build.

 

[fullblast]

Build a team with some depth who can play defense and run the ball. Add in a QB who can consistently deliver in the clutch. Enjoy your Lombardi.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

OK, fine. The Cliff Notes version:

There is no magic formula of “build it first then add a QB” that’s proven as a better/smarter way; just the way these 2 teams happened to have it happen. Many other teams have tried this way and failed as well, but they’re glossed over as though the only 2 attempts resulted in these last 2 SB winners.

KC + Tampa had maybe 2-3 of their 1st round picks in their starting lineup. Jets already have two.

Jets: 10-12 years ago had a SB-ready roster, and just needed a QB good enough to hide whatever remaining shortcomings the team had. They went with Favre and then Sanchez. No rings.

Draft and add good players, including a QB good enough to win it all. Doesn’t matter which comes first; get the right QB when you can. If Winston was great it wouldn’t matter that Tampa got him earlier in the process.

 

The magic formula is pretty simple - Get very good players and don’t stay married to a philosophy about where they need to come from.  Be it the Draft, a trade, a FA signing....it just doesn’t matter.  Get good players.

Jets 1999 AFC Championship caliber team - Vinny T (free agent), Curtis Martin (free agent), Keyshawn (1st pick), Chrebet (undrafted), etc.

[JohnnyLV]

8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Both teams built their team FIRST and then got their QB who slotted into a team built for success.

Tampa did not add Brady to a 2 win team and then tried to build the team.

KC did not add mahommes to a 2 win team and then let him get his ass kicked for 3 years trying to build.

 

That's just a dumb argument.  A better argument is they won the SB because they got a a franchise QB. And KC traded UP to get theirs. The majority of recent SB participants have had a QB under rookie contract or Brady. The data above and what I just pointed out suggests that picking QB at #2 and doing everything to make him become a franchise guy is the way to go not waiting like you want to

[Beerfish]

Just now, johnnysd said:

That's just a dumb argument.  A better argument is they won the SB because they got a a franchise QB. And KC traded UP to get theirs. The majority of recent SB participants have had a QB under rookie contract or Brady. The data above and what I just pointed out suggests that picking QB at #2 and doing everything to make him become a franchise guy is the way to go not waiting like you want to

Your first two sentences, you provide zero real arguments as to why they are correct.

You say my argument is dumb, provide no real valid reason why then provide your own theory and provide no better data or reasons at all.

You need a good team AND a good QB to win in this league.   It is often easier on a QB if he comes to a team that already has a good amount of team talent.  You limit your risk.

Let's look at Darnold vs Sanchez.  Both not great QBS in the long run or short run.

One had some success because he went to a built team.  the other is being likely dumped after 3 years.

I won;t have a big issue if they draft Wilson, I would be more in favour of a trade down if possible.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

It feels like "the way" is not possible without Mike Evans and Eric fisher ie the bad draft picks of the past take years to overcome 

The Jets will require several years of rebuild before they are even average 

And comparing George Fant to Mitchell Schwartz is an absolute joke 

It took them several years because they relied upon poor 1st round picks - most notably Winston - for so long. 

The Jets do not require several years of rebuild before they're even average. That's just ridiculous, never mind that it's baseless. 

Comparing Fant to Schwartz is fair in that they are comparably-priced FAs. The Jets can swap out Fant for a different comparably-priced RT FA whenever. The larger point is they certainly didn't burn the #2 pick in the whole country on a RT like your dream. Talk about a joke comparison lol. 

Using the #2 pick to shore up one 2nd/3rd-tier position is what'd lead to several years of rebuild. Like taking a safety at #6.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Both teams built their team FIRST and then got their QB who slotted into a team built for success.

Tampa did not add Brady to a 2 win team and then tried to build the team.

KC did not add mahommes to a 2 win team and then let him get his ass kicked for 3 years trying to build.

 

But you're using that as the secret sauce, when there's no basis for it, other than that's how it happened to occur.

Tampa was not destined for failure if they'd gotten Brady 3 years earlier.

KC was not destined for failure if they'd drafted Mahomes 3 years earlier.

The reason they're champs is because their teams are championship rosters good enough to win with those QBs, not singularly because of the sequence in which the teams' pieces arrived. 

[Philc1]

It’s a Receiver League just as much as it’s a QB league now:

 

2019 Chiefs: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce

2020 Bucs: Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk

 

Meanwhile the Jets have by far the worst WR/TE group in the NFL and it’s not even close.

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Your first two sentences, you provide zero real arguments as to why they are correct.

You say my argument is dumb, provide no real valid reason why then provide your own theory and provide no better data or reasons at all.

You need a good team AND a good QB to win in this league.   It is often easier on a QB if he comes to a team that already has a good amount of team talent.  You limit your risk.

Let's look at Darnold vs Sanchez.  Both not great QBS in the long run or short run.

One had some success because he went to a built team.  the other is being likely dumped after 3 years.

I won;t have a big issue if they draft Wilson, I would be more in favour of a trade down if possible.

 

Maybe a better way to se it is that there is no real definitive conclusion you can make from the data.

Your theory might have merit, but it pre-supposes that you can actually get a good QB later.

An equally valid argument could be that the two best QBs in the NFL made the SB so ALL that really matters is having an elite QB. That would make a solid argument for taking the QB now.

Seems to me the main argument against taking the QB is fear of failure and that reasoning is weak to me

[chad2coles]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

But you're using that as the secret sauce, when there's no basis for it, other than that's how it happened to occur.

Tampa was not destined for failure if they'd gotten Brady 3 years earlier.

KC was not destined for failure if they'd drafted Mahomes 3 years earlier.

The reason they're champs is because their teams are championship rosters good enough to win with those QBs, not singularly because of the sequence in which the teams' pieces arrived. 

Exactly.  If the Bucs had the opportunity to upgrade the QB position sooner, it would have only helped their chances earlier.  You don't ignore the chance to lock down the QB position with a top 5 25 year old QB because you don't think the rest of the roster is super bowl caliber.  You get the QB, fix the line immediately, and surround him with weapons. That can happen THIS OFFSEASON.

Saleh's defense on the 49ers last year was decimated by injuries and was still 4th in the NFL in yards allowed.  With Bosa and Dee Ford only appearing in 3 total games last year, Quentin Williams probably would have been the best player on their defense, and Maye would have been in the top 5.  Obviously the Jets don't have anyone like Warner at linebacker or Sherman at cb, but the point is that Saleh patched a top 4 defense together on the fly after losing his best pass rusher who was expected to get consideration for defensive player of the year and his 2nd best pass rusher.

Things can turn around really quickly in the NFL if you dramatically improve your coaching staff and QB position.

[Defense Wins Championships]

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. 

Even I (DWC) could've kept this one short and to the point. 

Great QB is what you need. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Doesn't matter what comes first.  You need a good QB and you need to be able to hit on your draft picks. 

We can trade 3 first round picks for a QB and be fine as long as we're finding long term starters in rounds 2-4. If you're not, you're not gonna be good no matter what. 

[doitny]

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Your first two sentences, you provide zero real arguments as to why they are correct.

You say my argument is dumb, provide no real valid reason why then provide your own theory and provide no better data or reasons at all.

You need a good team AND a good QB to win in this league.   It is often easier on a QB if he comes to a team that already has a good amount of team talent.  You limit your risk.

Let's look at Darnold vs Sanchez.  Both not great QBS in the long run or short run.

One had some success because he went to a built team.  the other is being likely dumped after 3 years.

I won;t have a big issue if they draft Wilson, I would be more in favour of a trade down if possible.

 

you make good points, but you have to get the QB when you can.

do you think KC doesnt draft Mahomes if there not good enough. no of course not.

should Jax trade the pick cause they cant add Trevor to such a bad roster. they would be dumb to do that. 

lets do look at Sanchez. we only got him cause we trade with Cleveland to move to 5 from 17. if we stayed at 17 it could have been Josh Freeman. 

2010: for those guys who say dont draft Sanchez, we will kick the can down the road and get one next year, Bradford, Tebow, McCoy, Kafka.... no winners there. 

2011: we picked 30th thanks to our back to back AFCCGs. too low to pick Cam. we could have got Dalton or Kap but we just missed the SB twice, we were going to look for that missing piece before our roster turned.

2012: we are still a decent team. finish 8-8. we picked 16th, too low to get the top guys like Luck, Griffen or Tannehill.

2013: even though we picked 9th and need a QB it was one of the worst QB classes ever. the top 3.....EJ Manuel went at 16, Geno ( 39) Glennon (73)

point is the QB isnt waiting for you to build your team. he there when hes there and you have to go get him.

[Matt39]

Bucs have done very well in the mid rounds while the Jets have consistently failed there. I agree with the post, just find good players regardless of some order of operations.

[chad2coles]

Didn't the Chiefs have a terrible defense Mahomes' first year?  I think they gave up more yards than any other team.  

 

[FidelioJet]

7 hours ago, GreekJet said:

Having an elite QB puts your team in position to compete for a championship every year. Look at the franchises that are in the playoffs every year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Wilson, Mahomes. A top QB hides a lot roster flaws. 

You could also be at that level without elite QB, but your championship window is typically shorter. 

This is the reality of the situation.

The Bucs didn't even go to the playoffs n 2019.

Having an elite QB puts you in the tournament every year.  Essentially giving you more shots on goal.  

Get the QB and all of a sudden things will look better....

 

[Larz]