The Douglas Decision: Wilson vs this—

[undertow]

4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

As @maury77 pointed out - we can still hope for a GOAT Fields pro day next week. He could run in the mid 4.3s... at 225... he's still the apple of my eye amongst these names 

It's amazing how one bad game while injured has killed the Fields hype.  Before the game everyone wanted Fields at 2...after the game everyone wanted Devonta Smith at 2.  Haven't heard either name on this board for months.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, undertow said:

It's amazing how one bad game while injured has killed the Fields hype.  Before the game everyone wanted Fields at 2...after the game everyone wanted Devonta Smith at 2.  Haven't heard either name on this board for months.

This.

I wrote at the time that Fields should have bowed out of the title game. He was legitimately hurt and was always going to be the sacrificial lamb for another Nick Saban title. 

[rayzor]

It would've been interesting if Miami had the #2 pick.  Would they have traded down or do they like Wilson enough to scrap Tua for him.  Now that Wilson is most likely out of reach in their eyes, they'd rather roll with Tua to see if he can be developed while stockpiling picks to help him.  Afterall, he was such a high pick last year.  They probably also figure that Watson most likely won't have any trading partners this season or at least until his legal woes and suspensions are long gone.  They will be in a great position next year to trade for him if Tua doesn't pan out.  

[Jet Life]

30 minutes ago, undertow said:

It's amazing how one bad game while injured has killed the Fields hype.  Before the game everyone wanted Fields at 2...after the game everyone wanted Devonta Smith at 2.  Haven't heard either name on this board for months.

Thank god the Smith hyped slowed down. Would have been awful at 2. Agree with you on Fields. I still think he’s right there with Trevor as QB1, but for some reason teams aren’t seeing it that way. Wilson will be the pick which il still support. 

[undertow]

Just now, Jet Life said:

Thank god the Smith hyped slowed down. Would have been awful at 2. Agree on you with Fields. I still think he’s right there with Trevor as QB1, but for some reason teams aren’t seeing it that way. Wilson will be the pick which il still support. 

Same the Smith hype was off the charts for a few weeks....taking a 170 pound WR at 2 was always a brain dead idea....especially on a rebuilding team. 

[Barkus]

2 hours ago, dcJet said:

Just like Sam draft when we never spoke to Giants.  Strange then, strange now.

Connor Hughes spoke about this a little while ago. He had dinner with Mac after Sam was drafted. Mac told him he had inside knowledge prior to the draft that Giants were taking Barkley no matter what and were not trading out. I’m thinking niners have a pretty good idea of what Jets are doing, especially since Salah has SF connections.

[Greensleeves]

3 hours ago, Paradis said:

I’d say Fields too, but that will just derail the question. 

What you’re seeing below could be the Jets if they trade back (more or less). Are you all that set on Wilson. Put your GM cap on for a moment and ruminate. 

 

We haven't had a real franchise QB since Namath. I could care less how many extra picks we have. We already have a ton ( two 1s this and next and probably two 2s, two 3s). You can only sign so many players on a team. Should we have to renew 50% of the teams contact one year and 50% the next year. That's not smart business. You go with the best possible QB talent you can find this year in a strong QB class. Wilson looks like he can be elite. How many years can we kick the can down the road, we've been doing it since the early 70s. Did I say we already have a ton of picks?

[Greensleeves]

1 hour ago, undertow said:

It's amazing how one bad game while injured has killed the Fields hype.  Before the game everyone wanted Fields at 2...after the game everyone wanted Devonta Smith at 2.  Haven't heard either name on this board for months.

the scheme fit seems to be better for Wilson - you don't see SF connected to Fields much either.

[Integrity28]

I’m trading #2 in a heartbeat.

Throw more darts, hit more bullseyes.

[NYJ1]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Or don't read every thread while at work.

What did I miss, you now a Wilson hype-head too like everyone else?

You work?

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

None right now, but Stafford was traded, Watson will most likely move in the future Russel Wilson musing about being moved, Brady just won the superbowl.  Green Bay won't keep Love and Rogers forever.

In the past you never would see names like this come out until they were all but finished.

 

Trading a boatload of picks for Watson and all his criminal possibilities?  Not even sure if JD would have been all in without the accusations and possible suspension down the road.  Wilsons not going anywhere, never thought he was still dont.  Again, we have to talk who's available not who may become available.  1 of the 3 is a possible trade, the other two who knows.  I'll believe GB trades Rodgers when it happens

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

If Watson sits out this year of his own choosing, do Texans lose a year of control or does DW play ‘22 under the terms of’21?

Good question, not sure

He plays under '21 and he loses nothing over the course of his contract and it stick it to Houston

[32EBoozer]

Just now, Jet Nut said:

Good question, not sure

He plays under '21 and he loses nothing over the course of his contract and it stick it to Houston

That would be awesome!

[derp]

1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

We haven't had a real franchise QB since Namath. I could care less how many extra picks we have. We already have a ton ( two 1s this and next and probably two 2s, two 3s). You can only sign so many players on a team. Should we have to renew 50% of the teams contact one year and 50% the next year. That's not smart business. You go with the best possible QB talent you can find this year in a strong QB class. Wilson looks like he can be elite. How many years can we kick the can down the road, we've been doing it since the early 70s. Did I say we already have a ton of picks?

Jets have taken two quarterbacks in the top five in the last twelve drafts - not sure that really counts as kicking the can down the road. Those two have contributed to what has been a horrific track record of quarterbacks drafted towards the very top of the draft (top three to five). Not really sure why we're so confident that'll change this year.

[undertow]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

Jets have taken two quarterbacks in the top five in the last twelve drafts - not sure that really counts as kicking the can down the road. Those two have contributed to what has been a horrific track record of quarterbacks drafted towards the very top of the draft (top three to five). Not really sure why we're so confident that'll change this year.

Every year everyone in the top 10 that gets alot of pub is a can't miss....people never learn.

[Tranquilo]

5 minutes ago, derp said:

Jets have taken two quarterbacks in the top five in the last twelve drafts - not sure that really counts as kicking the can down the road. Those two have contributed to what has been a horrific track record of quarterbacks drafted towards the very top of the draft (top three to five). Not really sure why we're so confident that'll change this year.

What does this even mean? So because the last few QBs sucked we shouldn’t draft the best possible QB (at our spot) in a draft anymore? 

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, Jet Life said:

Thank god the Smith hyped slowed down. Would have been awful at 2. Agree with you on Fields. I still think he’s right there with Trevor as QB1, but for some reason teams aren’t seeing it that way. Wilson will be the pick which il still support. 

I just don't see it with Fields.  I just don't see him being for lack of a better word sort of spatially and situationally aware at an NFL level.  Watching tape of him I see a lot of plays where he just does not seem to understand what is going on. Like there are a bunch of plays where he just seems completely unaware of the fact that defenders are bearing in on him and he is almost surprised he got tackled. He is a great runner but I don't see the elusiveness and awareness you see in this area from someone Wilson in Seattle or Lamar Jackson.

He has a trait (that Sam shares) when he plays where when he is about to throw there's like this minute pause where he mentally double checks where to throw the ball. And that hurts you in the NFL as CBs can catch up in that extra fraction of a second you give him.

He's just way more mechanical and not as fluid as a top QB should. He does not often throw with anticipation.

Now he is a fantastic athlete so he is able to overcome a lot of this. He has a big arm and very good accuracy deep. He is an explosive runner and teams will have to account for that when they play him.

I think he can be successful in the NFL with the right team. They need to be a team open to creating an offense specific to him like they did with other QBs like him.

I don't think people are hating on Fields, he still goes Top 10, probably Top 5 or 6 but I do not think the overall package is as strong as Wilson or Lawrence.

Now in defense of your argument he seems to have fallen in many minds behind Lance which is surprising to me.

[Tranquilo]

2 minutes ago, undertow said:

Every year everyone in the top 10 that gets alot of pub is a can't miss....people never learn.

So let’s not draft players in the top 10 anymore? Huh?!

These guys are too hyped. Let’s take our chances with players who have lower grades in the mid-rounds. 

[undertow]

2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

So let’s not draft players in the top 10 anymore? Huh?!

These guys are too hyped. Let’s take our chances with players who have lower grades in the mid-rounds. 

That's not the point....the point is exactly what I stated that people act like these guys are sure things.  Somebody earlier was telling me how good our line is gonna be this year because we are drafting 2 linemen...you get my point now?

[derp]

32 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

What does this even mean? So because the last few QBs sucked we shouldn’t draft the best possible QB (at our spot) in a draft anymore? 

Go ahead and look at the track record. It's bad. 

My guess would be the cause is that a) the way that the NFL evaluates quarterbacks is deeply flawed in a way that lets the better prospects slide to the teams that draft later and/or b) that teams with better teams in place have an improved chance of helping a quality prospect reach his potential. 

Regardless, the let's take our favorite quarterback prospect because we're drafting high strategy really, really has not worked out well for teams over the last decade plus.

And yes, I'd argue that track record should give the Jets pause when it comes to taking a quarterback at #2 overall, particularly if they have a good trade offer on the table.

[Tranquilo]

29 minutes ago, undertow said:

That's not the point....the point is exactly what I stated that people act like these guys are sure things.  Somebody earlier was telling me how good our line is gonna be this year because we are drafting 2 linemen...you get my point now?

So the issue is that you feel hurt that people promised sure things and they weren’t? That’s a you problem. Ignore the noise and draft the best player. Who cares about about everything else. 

[Tranquilo]

1 minute ago, derp said:

Go ahead and look at the track record. It's bad. 

My guess would be the cause is that a) the way that the NFL evaluates quarterbacks is deeply flawed in a way that lets the better prospects slide to the teams that draft later and/or b) that teams with better teams in place have an improved chance of helping a quality prospect reach his potential. 

Regardless, the let's take our favorite quarterback prospect because we're drafting high strategy really, really has not worked out well for teams over the last decade plus.

And yes, I'd argue that track record should give the Jets pause when it comes to taking a quarterback at #2 overall, particularly if they have a good trade offer on the table.

You can’t guarantee a good QB no matter where you draft but you gotta try until you eventually hit. 

[varjet]

• The 49ers just gave sent Miami a boatload of players to take either Wilson, Fields or maybe Lance, when they could have had Darnold for maybe a 3rd, no higher than a second.  They mortgaged their future for a CHEAP QB.  That is important.  This QB is $15mm+ cheaper than Jimmy G.
• The Jets taking a flyer one of the QBs is not the same thing as trading the farm to pick Darnold or for Watson.  The Jets still have a lot of draft capital to pick players and fill holes.   There will be 8+ new players on the roster just from the draft.   The 49ers now need to fill their team with picks 3rd round and below, which is basically where the Jets would have been if they traded for Watson.  The 49ers are starting with a much better team-the Jets lost to their second string.
• The Jets made some good 1 year signings.  I don’t think they are tanking.  Fill the OL and CB with some high picks, and they could be in business.   But I don’t think you trade Darnold now.  Try and coach him up and get a better pick for him.  He is good insurance.  Let Wilson continue to develop.  Let Darnold take the initial beating.  Rotate them.  
• But, although Wilson is not.a shrimp, he is bottom 25% for NFL QBs in physical stature.  It matters.   He will train up.  He does not really compare to Sanchez either.  I have met Mark Sanchez-he is actually pretty stocky.   If the AFC, he is smaller than Cam/Jimmy G, Allen, Tannenhill, Wentz, Lawrence (in height), Watson (maybe not Tyrod), Mahomes, Lock, Herbert, Big Ben, Burrow.  In the NFC, he is smaller than Jones, Prescott, Foles, maybe not Rodgers, maybe not Cousins, Goff,  Winston, Brady (now), Fields (SF), Wilson (not built like him), Stamford.   He is effectively the same size as Mayfield, Tua, Rodgers maybe, Fitz, Lamar (but not built like him), Carr maybe, Murray (not built like him).  Wilson would be one of the smaller QBs in the NFL.  But if the Jets don’t like Fields for the offense, it could be worth taking him.

[undertow]

6 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

So the issue is that you feel hurt that people promised sure things and they weren’t? That’s a you problem. Ignore the noise and draft the best player. Who cares about about everything else. 

No the problem is people think you are filling 5 holes every draft and that because everyone in the media is hyping Zach Wilson up he's a sure thing....this isn't that complicated. 

[SayNoToDMC]

6 hours ago, slats said:

What if Wilson doesn’t live up to the hype, though? 
 
Gonna be a tough call for JD if Carolina offers the #8, their second this year, and firsts in 2022 & 2023. Or maybe not. But that’s where the price is about now. 

Than we still suck and don't win a SB. We didnt get a participation medal for back to back AFC championships under Rex. There's only one trophy. Till we get that and it requires a QB,  all the picks we've made that have come and gone over the years are entirely worthless 

[derp]

18 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

You can’t guarantee a good QB no matter where you draft but you gotta try until you eventually hit. 

Doesn’t mean you have to try at 2.

[Tranquilo]

39 minutes ago, derp said:

Doesn’t mean you have to try at 2.

But if he has the highest grade of the guys they scouted why not draft him? QB is the most important position 

[Tranquilo]

52 minutes ago, undertow said:

No the problem is people think you are filling 5 holes every draft and that because everyone in the media is hyping Zach Wilson up he's a sure thing....this isn't that complicated. 

What does it matter that he gets hyped? 

[Vader]

6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The real question in my mind is how much better is Wilson than Darnold?

If Wilson will be a significant improvement then you take him at #2 regardless of the opportunity cost associated with not trading down.

If Wilson turns out to be only 10% better than Sam then sticking and picking will be a bad move.

 

And for those asking, "Well, what do you mean by 10% better?  How do you quantify that?"  A data driven answer would be QB Rating.  According to the link below Sam Darnold had a Rating of 68.  A 10% improvement would put him at approximately 75 and on par with guys like Teddy Bridgewater and Tua Tagovailoa.

Click the link then click the RTG column heading to sort by QB Rating  --> https://www.lineups.com/nfl/quarterback-qb-stats

As prospects projected into the NFL they are similar. Wilson maybe slight edge due to arm talent/release. The problem is when you factor in Darnold’s NFL career. It’s hard to be anything other than significantly better.

[peebag]

I cannot believe people are falling for this ZW hype.

Oh well. 3 years and back to the drawing board.

[Dcat]

11 hours ago, Paradis said:

Thank you for the 8899989th time FOR F.S. 

I didn’t draw up the fcking pick and at  one time that was accurate. 

 

Send me your address so I can send your shiny new Zach Wilson poster.

As I said before, I have my concerns about Wilson as most sane Jets fans do.  But at this point, it is, what it is.  

I have a Darnold rookie jersey if anyone wants it.  Bargain price!  Unworn. Free shipping.

[derp]

10 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

But if he has the highest grade of the guys they scouted why not draft him? QB is the most important position 

I just explained it to you earlier.

[peekskill68]

16 hours ago, Beerfish said:

None right now, but Stafford was traded, Watson will most likely move in the future Russel Wilson musing about being moved, Brady just won the superbowl.  Green Bay won't keep Love and Rogers forever.

In the past you never would see names like this come out until they were all but finished.

 

We were set for a deep run in the playoffs before Favre's arm fell off...

[Greensleeves]

18 hours ago, slats said:

What if Wilson doesn’t live up to the hype, though? 
 
Gonna be a tough call for JD if Carolina offers the #8, their second this year, and firsts in 2022 & 2023. Or maybe not. But that’s where the price is about now. 

Don't you think SF approached us first (minus a few spots) given their relationship? The SF trade just underscores how set we are to pick a QB and also if SF is willing to give up all that to take the third best QB this year instead of just a #2 for Sam, we know what they think about Sam unfortunately. 

[Tranquilo]

59 minutes ago, derp said:

I just explained it to you earlier.

Yeah and it’s because you’re too hurt that he might not be a sure thing?