College Wilson vs. College Darnold

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Based on what, exactly?

[Viermoo]

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

If you think QBASE has any value, consider that they have Wilson pretty close to Lawrence with their score.  Meanwhile, they had Darnold as the 4th best QB in 2018, miles behind Baker Mayfield, significantly behind Jackson and Rosen, and only a little better than Mason Rudolph.  

This was the % chance they had of potential outcomes for each, with Lawrence thrown in as well:

Darnold

Bust	51.9%
Adequate Starter	29.0%
Upper Tier	15.1%
Elite	4.1%

 

Wilson

Bust	29.0%
Adequate Starter	26.6%
Upper Tier	24.3%
Elite	20.2%

 

Lawrence

Bust	25.4%
Adequate Starter	25.5%
Upper Tier	24.9%
Elite	24.2%

 

So essentially they give Wilson a 44 % chance of being a worthwhile pick at # 2, since upper tier/elite is what you're looking for there.  You don't draft an "adequate starter" in the 1-3 overall range.

Darnold they gave a 19 % chance.  Lawrence, 49 %.

[kdels62]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If you think QBASE has any value, consider that they have Wilson pretty close to Lawrence with their score.  Meanwhile, they had Darnold as the 4th best QB in 2018, miles behind Baker Mayfield, significantly behind Jackson and Rosen, and only a little better than Mason Rudolph.  

This was the % chance they had of potential outcomes for each:

Darnold

Bust	51.9%
Adequate Starter	29.0%
Upper Tier	15.1%
Elite	4.1%

 

Wilson

Bust	29.0%
Adequate Starter	26.6%
Upper Tier	24.3%
Elite	20.2%

 

 

So essentially they give Wilson a 44+ % chance of being a worthwhile pick at # 2, if upper tier/elite is what you're looking for there.

Darnold they gave a 19 % chance.

Sorry but this is math and math isn’t football. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Sorry but this is math and math isn’t football. 

I know you're joking but just to be clear for the people who will take this comment seriously, QBASE's math has been better at projecting QB outcomes than any front office, scout, or analyst in NFL history, and its not close.  

[JoJoTownsell1]

4 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Darnold was the consensus best QB going into that draft. Wilson seemingly is #2 in this years. If they were both in this draft who would be the higher rated QB?

Darnold was drafted after baker so not sure where you get the idea that he was consensus #1. He wasn't even the#2 pick in the draft 

Regardless, Darnold had more big game, clutch performances but Wilson has a better arm and better college numbers.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

I don’t know if Wilson will succeed, but if Sam was even halfway decent we wouldn’t be in the position to draft him.

 

Who cares if Sam was better because Sam ******* sucks.

[Dunnie]

3 hours ago, jetsons said:

 "An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence."

“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”

Put a name on it .. or gtfo

[southtown24th]

4 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Darnold was the consensus best QB going into that draft. Wilson seemingly is #2 in this years. If they were both in this draft who would be the higher rated QB?

Darnold was NOT the consensus if you remember.

there was debate from beginning to end about: mayfield vs. allen vs. darnold vs. lamar vs. rosen

so that's false

[BornJetsFan1983]

5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Based on what, wiping out his 3 year NFL career vs the prospect that Wilson is at this point?  

Just that it is unknown and most first round qbs bust...darnold can play of decent talent around him the betting odds would probably be good that he be ok

[TokyoJetsFan]

Carolina Panthers: Pick No. 8

Chance To Be Better Than Sam Darnold

PLAYER	2021	2022
Teddy Bridgewater	72%	65%
Zach Wilson	66%	60%
Justin Fields	65%	60%
Mac Jones	52%	50%
Trey Lance	52%	49%

[Mike135]

6 hours ago, Grandy said:

Can't think of 1 thing Darnold did better than Wilson coming out. 

Sam definitely made better headwear decisions.

[Jackie Treehorn]

Wilson looks far better in the videos posted, but it was (as mentioned a thousand times, but at this point what hasn't) against inferior opposition. 

What I can tell you is that Zach, with superior looks, will be able to stay clear of the mono-infested low end hoes Darnold had to turn to. That's a plus in my book. 

[Bruce Harper]

Darnold had much better size and a high profile Bowl game win. He also had better receivers and a lot more turnovers. Zach had better accuracy, particularly on long passes.

I would think Zach would go first but that may be the benefit of hindsight.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[More Cowbell]

12 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Darnold was the consensus best QB going into that draft. Wilson seemingly is #2 in this years. If they were both in this draft who would be the higher rated QB?

[Biggs]

12 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Darnold was the consensus best QB going into that draft. Wilson seemingly is #2 in this years. If they were both in this draft who would be the higher rated QB?

Except he was drafted 3rd and was the No. 2 on our board.   There was plenty of "consensus" that Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield were better than Darnold.  

[More Cowbell]

10 hours ago, Grandy said:

To put it simply, Wilson is above Darnold as a prospect due to him having a better arm coming out, and without large turnover and mechanical issues to boot. Coming out, he's just a significantly better and more consistent thrower of the football. I've seen some people say that him and Wilson are very similar, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Darnold's biggest issues were turnovers, and bad mechanics (motion included) while Wilson had 3 picks last year and has a beautiful flick of the wrist. Wilson also showed great development (which is in fact a good thing) while Darnold receded his final year of college. 

See a lot of people say that Darnold would be 3, or 4 in this class.

There was no knock ever on Darnolds arm and how are you judging this great development while playing teams like Troy and Western Kentucky? 

[Biggs]

8 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

Apparently he's rated higher by the Jets GM and coaching staff.  

[More Cowbell]

2 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Except he was drafted 3rd and was the No. 2 on our board.   There was plenty of "consensus" that Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield were better than Darnold.  

Mac told Darnold after he was drafted we didn't  think we would have a shot at you. Obviously  he was the Jets top QB. 

[More Cowbell]

8 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

This is absolutely click bait for every Sam hater on the board. We have a huge contingent  with blind hatred for the guy

 Had Mac drafted Wilson instead, and Darnold was coming out this season, Wilson would going to Carolina  and we would be talking about drafting Darmold or Fields. No QB could do well with the dog ? roster we had, an OL that looked like a keystone cop movie at times, and the absolutely  worst coaching staff the Jets have ever assembled. 

[Biggs]

10 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Mac told Darnold after he was drafted we didn't  think we would have a shot at you. Obviously  he was the Jets top QB. 

Well there's a rose in a fisted glove
And the eagle flies with the dove
And if you can't be with the one you love, honey
Love the one you're with

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Just that it is unknown and most first round qbs bust...darnold can play of decent talent around him the betting odds would probably be good that he be ok

Well yes, most bust.  But we still needed a different QB because no one knows that "darnold can play of decent talent around him the betting odds would probably be good that he be ok". Nothing up to now really says that.  And I was a huge Darnold fan but realistically hes never going to be what he was supposed to be.  

[Biggs]

8 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

This is absolutely click bait for every Sam hater on the board. We have a huge contingent  with blind hatred for the guy

 Had Mac drafted Wilson instead, and Darnold was coming out this season, Wilson would going to Carolina  and we would be talking about drafting Darmold or Fields. No QB could do well with the dog ? roster we had, an OL that looked like a keystone cop movie at times, and the absolutely  worst coaching staff the Jets have ever assembled. 

Not loving his performance, durability, decision making and understanding he's been in a bad situation isn't hate.  

A 4 and a 6 this year and a 2 next year doesn't sound like love either.   Sam was universally loved by the fan base pretty much until this year.  

Talk about hate.  Gase isn't a good HC.  He's not close to the worst HC the Jets have ever had.  Gase hate is a real thing.  Sam hate is mostly made up.  

[Jet Nut]

9 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

The Jets think Wilson is better choice going forward today.

Youre talking Darnold of 4 years ago vs Wilson of today.  Who cares how Darnold was ranked 4 years ago.  He shot that down with 3 seasons of bad NFL play

[Jet Nut]

19 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Had Mac drafted Wilson instead, and Darnold was coming out this season, Wilson would going to Carolina  and we would be talking about drafting Darmold or Fields.

So why didnt the 49rs or the Rams trade for Darnold?  They would have gotten the equivalent of a top rated QB in this years draft, a QB worthy of the 2nd pick for a couple of garbage picks and a 2nd round pick in 2022.  How come no one thought he was worth what it take to trade for or to draft a top QB?

This has nothing to do with hating Sam, its reality 

[Jethead]

Who would have been the greatest New York Mets pitcher of all time? Hint, for 3 years he didn't know what a strike looked like.

Then they traded him for Jim Fregosi. 

Just sayin'.

[bealeb319]

I find this argument silly people are ignoring wilson's red flags like the fact that be has never played against an nfl caliber defense and comparing him to the abomination gase turned darnold into. If we are going off of what we saw in college then darnold would have been viewed as the safer pick who is more likely to develop into a decent qb and wilson would have been the wildcard with lots of upside and the lower floor. Basically darnold vs allen.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[More Cowbell]

12 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Not loving his performance, durability, decision making and understanding he's been in a bad situation isn't hate.  

A 4 and a 6 this year and a 2 next year doesn't sound like love either.   Sam was universally loved by the fan base pretty much until this year.  

Talk about hate.  Gase isn't a good HC.  He's not close to the worst HC the Jets have ever had.  Gase hate is a real thing.  Sam hate is mostly made up.  

Are you new here? I mean seriously,  you don't  think people genuinely  hate Sam? You want to know why Sam regressed so much this season? Gase and JD. Gase gave Sam a RB that should have retired but was probably chasing that record nobody is ever going to remember (I personally  forgot what it was already) and he did Sam no favors. Did not use motion, did not use a moving pocket to get Sam away from the rush, changed the OL scheme in his first year without having the OL needed to run it and got Sam killed, never featured Mims who was drafted to be a #1 WR (running a guy who is 6'2" I believe who has sub 4.4 speed on crosses is not featuring him). And JD getting the guy nothing except for Becton and as the season went on dismantled the team is not a situation any QB is going to progress in. 

[More Cowbell]

17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So why didnt the 49rs or the Rams trade for Darnold?  They would have gotten the equivalent of a top rated QB in this years draft, a QB worthy of the 2nd pick for a couple of garbage picks and a 2nd round pick in 2022.  How come no one thought he was worth what it take to trade for or to draft a top QB?

This has nothing to do with hating Sam, its reality 

Because the clock on Sam had run out. Any team that traded for him had to be willing to pickup his option. The 9ers could either pay Sam a lot of money or pay Jimmy G a lot of money. They are looking to reset at that position. Sam wasn't  a fit. Same for the Rams.

[Biggs]

8 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Are you new here? I mean seriously,  you don't  think people genuinely  hate Sam? You want to know why Sam regressed so much this season? Gase and JD. Gase gave Sam a RB that should have retired but was probably chasing that record nobody is ever going to remember (I personally  forgot what it was already) and he did Sam no favors. Did not use motion, did not use a moving pocket to get Sam away from the rush, changed the OL scheme in his first year without having the OL needed to run it and got Sam killed, never featured Mims who was drafted to be a #1 WR (running a guy who is 6'2" I believe who has sub 4.4 speed on crosses is not featuring him). And JD getting the guy nothing except for Becton and as the season went on dismantled the team is not a situation any QB is going to progress in. 

No I think most Jets fans are genuinly dissapointed it didn't work out.  I think most Jets fans genuinely hated Gase even though in his first year here he did a very good job.  They were funding pages to fire him after holding the team together.  Gase is a bad head coach, he is not historically bad.  Sam is a bad QB, not historically bad but it was time to move on from both of them. 

If you believe in Sam even a little bit taking the option on him makes him very cheap on a 2 year deal which can be renegiotated at any time. 

[rangerous]

i don't think anyone can argue against darnold be a top rated qb when he was drafted.  and it's probably true in this draft as well but that's only if you look at his college career and pay no attention to what he did as a pro.  lots of qb's don't make it.  of late trubitsky is out in chicago.  mariota hasn't done well and winston is warming the bench.  how would these guys compare to this year's draft? no telling.

the jets have obviously made the decision that they can have better qb play from wilson (or someone else) than darnold.  isn't that the job of the gm?  and it's not like douglas is making this decision in a vacuum.

[More Cowbell]

9 hours ago, southtown24th said:

Darnold was NOT the consensus if you remember.

there was debate from beginning to end about: mayfield vs. allen vs. darnold vs. lamar vs. rosen

so that's false

And there is a debate over Trevor and Zack as there is over Zack, and Field.

The consensus is who the media picks as the best overall selection and the media was clearly in the Darnold camp. 

[More Cowbell]

55 minutes ago, Biggs said:

No I think most Jets fans are genuinly dissapointed it didn't work out.  I think most Jets fans genuinely hated Gase even though in his first year here he did a very good job.  They were funding pages to fire him after holding the team together.  Gase is a bad head coach, he is not historically bad.  Sam is a bad QB, not historically bad but it was time to move on from both of them. 

If you believe in Sam even a little bit taking the option on him makes him very cheap on a 2 year deal which can be renegiotated at any time. 

Your making no sense. Just read what people post. That isn't  disappointment. Disappointment is not going winless to get Trevor around here. People have wanted Sam gone since last season. Gase held the team together? Here is what I think would hold the team together.  Winning football games. Gase was horrible at that. He also scape goated Williams for that loss against the Raiders. He had to know what that call was. If he thought that was a fireable offense, why didn't  he stop it or call a TO to talk it over. That right there makes Gase just about the worst coach in football. 

And now you bring up Salary. If you are looking at this on a salary level, That is the biggest reason of all to move on from Sam and I say this as a guy that supported Sam and I still do but the clock had run out on him. There was not enough upside in keeping him and the floor was through the basement if he did not improve. Resetting the salary  clock with a new QB who has similar or even more upside is by far a no brainer when looking at it like that.

 

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, bealeb319 said:

I find this argument silly people are ignoring wilson's red flags like the fact that be has never played against an nfl caliber defense and comparing him to the abomination gase turned darnold into. If we are going off of what we saw in college then darnold would have been viewed as the safer pick who is more likely to develop into a decent qb and wilson would have been the wildcard with lots of upside and the lower floor. Basically darnold vs allen.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

No college player plays NFL caliber defenses. Sam Darnold turned the ball over 36 times in 2 seasons. Zach Wilson turned it over maybe 18 times in 3 seasons, including only 3 times as a true junior. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

Because the clock on Sam had run out. Any team that traded for him had to be willing to pickup his option. The 9ers could either pay Sam a lot of money or pay Jimmy G a lot of money. They are looking to reset at that position. Sam wasn't  a fit. Same for the Rams.

If he’s as good as you say he’s worth paying.  Especially given how little it would have cost to acquire him via trade.  
No one traded for him because they didn’t think he was worth it and there were better options.  Carolina traded because they had no viable option and haven’t picked up his option because if the 4th or 5th QB is there at 8 they’re taking him.  
Again, I’m with you, wanted Darnold to work out but unfortunately he didn’t here and there’s no indication he’ll work out somewhere else.  I get he’ll be better with better talent but upper level?  Not seeing how