Do the Jets even need a franchise QB?

[SickJetFan]

All these really good QB drafted these last few years like Burrows, Mahomes, Allen, etc are all just going to get better and better and they are all soooo young so they will be dominating for years to come.  Jets will always be on the outside looking in until they can get one themselves.  The prospects for that seem pretty lame right now.

[Alka]

31 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Many of us said it.  But the book is not closed on Zach ... yet ... so well see.

I know that some of us said it, but as I remember, not too many. I love your optimism though!

[Larz]

You could go the nick foles way or

 

Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Stafford 

[THE BARON]

4 hours ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

what is your goal? to try to sneak into the playoffs every couple of years with good rosters and JAG QB's? Than no, you don't need one.

If its to try to have a legit chance year in and year out to win a SB, then yes, you very much need one.

same thing i have been saying for years.  jets need a star qb or they will be an also-ran team until they get one. 

no star qb means not beating good divisional teams and not winning in the playoffs

 

[derp]

I think there are two paths to a Super Bowl. Legitimate elite franchise QB, or a cheap QB room with a loaded roster. Barring something weird happening where an elite veteran comes available (which does occur, just not too often) the way to get the franchise QB and the cheap QB room is by drafting a guy. 

Think the move is to build a decent team (which the Jets have), identify a guy you love in the draft from a developmental standpoint, and then get him. That way there’s an infrastructure in place where he doesn’t have to do everything. Then you just prioritize his development and see what happens.

Rams got to a SB with Goff and Eagles won one with Wentz on his rookie deal, Jets almost made some runs with Sanchez, Ravens won with Flacco and have had very good teams around Jackson. You can build some good teams with rookie QB’s even if they don’t turn out to be elite. And then of course the Chiefs got Mahomes and Bills landed Allen by trading up with established teams.

[Barkus]

I would focus on building the team, bringing in young developmental QB every 1-2yrs. If the team is ready to win and older vet can put you over the top (ie: QB like Stafford) then go for it. 

[Sonny Werblin]

I’m not sure what a franchise QB is. It probably means something different to everyone. But I do know what the Jets need at QB, and it’s this guy . . .

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

13 hours ago, BurntDice said:

Goff has played pretty good this year as well as Geno. Based on passing TDS it’s in order 

Mahomes 

Burrow

Allen 

Geno

Goff

Hurts

Tua

Rogers

Herbert 

Cousins

Lawrence 

Carr 

Brady

Jackson

Jimmy G

Dak missed 5 games, but he’d be in the mix too. 
 

I haven’t watched any cardinals games, but Murray is #18. 

Below is sorted by QBR. Notable additions this way are Danny Dimes, Brissett, Fields, and Mariota. (White has a 49.1 QBR, Zach is 43.2) 

 

 

That list is kind of the point.  Are Geno, Goff and now Tua really franchise QBs as defined in the original post?

Or are they good QBs that are part of good offenses?  The one thing in common is that they all have great WRs and the Dolphins and Lions in particular have invested heavily here via the draft (and the Hill trade).

That would exactly be my strategy, let’s draft another WR in the first since the FA and trade markets are so expensive.  

[Copernicus]

Mike White was just about fully developed under this coaching staff. I would gamble that they do the same for Zach (in time). That would leave us with 2 maybe even 3 capable QBs on our roster. I would gamble on Mike White moving foward. He will be affordable and we are getting a front row seat to observe if he can do it under the bright lights of New York. So far I'd say he is capable of it. We would have to offer a boatload of money to Garapolo or Carr not knowing if they would crumble under the criticism of the NY media. Mike White is totally capable from what i've seen thus far. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

14 hours ago, peebag said:

this.

53 years and counting.

Don’t get me wrong.  I would LOVE a franchise QB.  The question is do we need one to win, especially when you consider the current team?

The answer to this will lead to different directions this offseason, especially if Zach continues to struggle.

1. Do we make a big trade?

2. Do we take another shot in round 1?

It’s just a muddied picture right now because there is a big drop off after the top 3 or so and yet another big drop off after 10 or so.

I do believe teams are paying 4-10 too much and that is why we are seeing Goff, Tua and Geno outplay some of the bigger names.  Their offenses have the WRs to elevate them above better pure QBs.

Thats the crux of the question..

[Ecuadorian Jet]

We need a franchise offensive line

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

23 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I’m not sure what a franchise QB is. It probably means something different to everyone. But I do know what the Jets needs at QB, and it’s this guy . . .

 

We could do much worse and he would have a pretty talented offense to run.  
 

Most people wouldn’t consider him a franchise QB in their definition but with this offense could he be a top 10 guy in scoring points / other key metrics?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

13 hours ago, Larz said:

You could go the nick foles way or

 

Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Stafford 

Great list and definitely proves teams with one have dominated..

Is the cost of the QB becoming too high?  Outside of one on a rookie deal or the Hall of Famer, which your list is littered with?

Anyways, maybe some boring research I’ll do on a rainy day ;).  

 

[Sonny Werblin]

30 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

We could do much worse and he would have a pretty talented offense to run.  
 

Most people wouldn’t consider him a franchise QB in their definition but with this offense could he be a top 10 guy in scoring points / other key metrics?

I don't know why people do not see what I see in Minshew. He has played QB in about 25 complete games. He's had 23 starts and 2 games where he came in for the starter and played most of the game. In 5 games of mop up duty with the Eagles he was 4/6 for 45 yards. IMO these are awfully good stats he's put up. Especially the 14 Ints considering he was on the Jags for 2 years and playing from behind most of the time.  His per game average is something like 22/35 for 240 yds  1.6 TDs and .5 Ints. And that is over 25 games where he played all or most of the game. That is a big enough sample size to know what you are getting. 

 

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Great list and definitely proves teams with one have dominated..

Is the cost of the QB becoming too high?  Outside of one on a rookie deal or the Hall of Famer, which your list is littered with?

Anyways, maybe some boring research I’ll do on a rainy day ;).  

 

There was an interesting article/study about how FQBs are actually underpaid for their impact. Tried to find it again a few months ago, will try again.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I don't know Gardner Minshew has played QB in about 25 complete games. He's had 23 starts and 2 games where he came in for the starter an played most of the game. In 5 games of mop up duty with the Eagles he was 4/6 for 45 yards. IMO these are awfully good stats he's put up. Especially the 14 Ints considering he was on the Jags for 2 years and playing from behind most of the time.  His per game average is something like 22/35 for 240 yds  1.6 TDs and .5 Ints. And that is over 25 games where he played all or most of the game. That is a big enough sample size to know what you are getting. 

 

I’m higher on Gardner than most but I believe most agree he is a plus hold the fort guy at a minimum.

Just watch him play. He knows how to move around in and leverage the pocket, when flushed out he keeps his eyes downfield, shoulders squared, and the ball cocked, locked and ready to rock and he can hurt you as a runner when nothing else is there.

[The Crusher]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

I’m higher on Gardner than most but I believe most agree he is a plus hold the fort guy at a minimum.

Just watch him play. He knows how to move around in and leverage the pocket, when flushed out he keeps his eyes downfield, shoulders squared, and the ball cocked, locked and ready to rock and he can hurt you as a runner when nothing else is there.

A franchise QB reduces the amount of luck when injuries occur, free agents leaving and can make up for the poor play of  others. It can even make a raw OC like LaFleur look way more competent  sooner. But, no, NO we don’t need one. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I don't know why people do not see what I see in Minshew. He has played QB in about 25 complete games. He's had 23 starts and 2 games where he came in for the starter and played most of the game. In 5 games of mop up duty with the Eagles he was 4/6 for 45 yards. IMO these are awfully good stats he's put up. Especially the 14 Ints considering he was on the Jags for 2 years and playing from behind most of the time.  His per game average is something like 22/35 for 240 yds  1.6 TDs and .5 Ints. And that is over 25 games where he played all or most of the game. That is a big enough sample size to know what you are getting. 

 

The stats are fantastic!!  No argument here.  I can’t comment much further because I haven’t seen him play enough but if he could replicate those stats here, who wouldn’t sign up?

[genot]

16 hours ago, K_O_Brien said:

A franchise QB gets us road wins in New England, Minnesota, and maybe Buffalo. 

In Foxboro, our D played as well as it's humanly possible to, and we still lost because the QB had a meltdown.  

In Minnesota, we made excuses for the QB because one receiver dropped one pass.  

In Buffalo, it's because we turned the ball over twice. 

But if you have a franchise QB, turning the ball over twice doesn't need to be fatal in terms of winning the football game. You can overcome a dropped pass, like the one in Minnesota, if you later get another set of downs inside the red zone. 

Without the franchise QB, everything else needs to be perfect, which is neither realistic nor sustainable. 

 

According to your thinking, a Franchise QB should be able to overcome all adversity, meaning teams with one should never lose a football game. 

[jgb]

1 minute ago, The Crusher said:

A franchise QB reduces the amount of luck when injuries occur, free agents leaving and can make up for the poor play of  others. It can even make a raw OC like LaFleur look way more competent  sooner. But, no, NO we don’t need one. 

Him: “Want to go with me to the prom?”

Her: “Sorry, I already accepted an invite from someone else….”

Him: “As if I’d take you, you filthy slag!”

[xJayce]

14 hours ago, Larz said:

You could go the nick foles way or

 

Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Stafford 

So really, we need Tom Brady is what you're saying...

[Copernicus]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I’m not sure what a franchise QB is. It probably means something different to everyone. But I do know what the Jets need at QB, and it’s this guy . . .

 

Gardner Minshew "seems like" he would have the mental capasity to survive and thrive in New York. Mike White is currently doing it. Still a lot of season to go so we will have a better evaluation at the end of the season wioth White. If Minshew doesnt break the bank and we resign Mike White I would be comfortable letting a true QB competition determine the starting QB position for next season. I am not against letting Zach sit and learn next season. Just think there is too much ability to get rid of Zach.  JFM, Huff, Herbig, Fant, Zonavan, and Berrios are all productive players that were on the scrap heap or undrafted and totally developed by this coaching staff so to think it cant be done with Zach seems short sighted. 

[The Crusher]

13 minutes ago, jgb said:

Him: “Want to go with me to the prom?”

Her: “Sorry, I already accepted an invite from someone else….”

Him: “As if I’d take you, you filthy slag!”

In the lunchroom 1983 ND High School. 
 

Me: “Wanna go to the prom?”

Her: “No, you’re fat!”

Me: “ You gonna finish that?”

Her: “No”

Me: “Score!!”

[jgb]

Just now, The Crusher said:

In the lunchroom 1983 ND High School. 
 

Me: “Wanna go to the prom?”

Her: “No, you’re fat!”

Me: “ You gonna finish that?”

Her: “No”

Me: “Score!!”

Ah, the Great American Love Story 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

In the lunchroom 1983 ND High School. 
 

Me: “Wanna go to the prom?”

Her: “No, you’re fat!”

Me: “ You gonna finish that?”

Her: “No”

Me: “Score!!”

 

@Verbal he got it right!

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I’m not sure what a franchise QB is. It probably means something different to everyone. But I do know what the Jets need at QB, and it’s this guy . . .

 

Kenny Powers in pads.

Did Prestige Worldwide produce this video?

 

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Ah, the Great American Love Story 

Jealousy is a wasted emotion! 

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

@Verbal he got it right!

Actual LOL! 

[jgb]

Just now, The Crusher said:

Jealousy is a wasted emotion! 

Anything you can’t eat is a waste!

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

For those interested, I found and attached a table breakdown of Super Bowl QBs..

Some key observations:

1. The QB cost is increasing with MOST double digit salary cap allocations (% of cap) in the past 10 years.

2. The midpoint over the last 10 years for both winners and losers is closing in at 10%.

3. The maximum QB cap allocation is around 12% and that is for Hall of Famers.

4. If you can find a Mahomes or Russell Wilson on a rookie deal, that’s a direct way to ultimate success.  Before them- Big Ben and Brady.

5. Sustained SB success is limited to the Hall of Famers or Future Hall of Famers like Mahomes.

6. That said, Mahomes makes up 17.5% of KC’s 2022 cap, which would be a significant outlier if the Chiefs make the Super Bowl this year.

7. My assumption is that guys like Brees and Rodgers missed out as they became bigger slices of the cap pie (Brees had a playoff revival  after the team hit big on the draft).

8. Peyton Manning is the only real example of the hired gun approach, making 2 w/ Denver.

9. Eli is the example of a debatable ELITE QB who won it 2x.  Maybe an example of the clutch factor those 2 runs.

 

 

[DireJet]

Do the Jets already have one? 

If you block out all the noise about age, draft slot, etc, MW’s first 6 career games have been impressive.

I don’t understand why more people aren’t thinking this way. 

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

I think jets should sign white for a 2-3 year deal. White is an average starter and we can go to the playoffs with him.  But that shouldn’t stop us from trying to upgrade. Draft a developmental qb in rounds 2-4. Or if there’s a qb who falls that you like trade up to get him. 

this would be the chiefs model. Alex smith was a good competent qb. They still traded up from 27 to 10 to draft mahomes. 
 

[jason423]

Its very hard to have sustained success in the NFL without a franchise QB. Even when our team was at its most recent peak (2009-2010) the peak lasted all of two years because Sanchez wasnt good enough to cover for the fact that the GM didnt bat over 700 anymore in the draft and free agency.  If you dont have the QB you basically have to do everything perfect from coaching to drafting to pinpointing the right free agents. It can work in the short term with a passable QB like Foles the one year in Philly but you have to have a lot of faith in the group to go that path.

I dont think the history of Saleh and Douglas would lead me to think that they have the ability to put together that two year run with a mid grade QB. In three years of drafting Douglas hit a home run on the two guys this year, got a good lineman in AVT in 2020, and has some potential with Hall and Johnson. Most everything else has been pretty bland. Williams was pre Douglas. JFM was a good claim. DJ Reed a good signing that will likely regress next year. I certainly don't think Saleh has done anything in these two years that would make you think he is like a Shanahan where the coaching is clearly making a difference. The Jets have been prepared to play this year and there is merit in that but on Sunday I would not say that the staff is an advantage over the opponent. You need him to be that if you are going to go all in with random guys at QB. 

[Copernicus]

8 minutes ago, DireJet said:

Do the Jets already have one? 

If you block out all the noise about age, draft slot, etc, MW’s first 6 career games have been impressive.

I don’t understand why more people aren’t thinking this way. 

100%

Is it because we are shell shocked that Zach hadn't taken the leap?

Is it exhausting emotionally going from the starting QB that we so desperatly want to succeed and then pivoting to the back up while still in a playoff race? 

A bit in shock that Mike White is playing well considering his pre season was so poor?

All of it?

 

 

 

[DireJet]

9 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I think jets should sign white for a 2-3 year deal. White is an average starter and we can go to the playoffs with him.  But that shouldn’t stop us from trying to upgrade. Draft a developmental qb in rounds 2-4. Or if there’s a qb who falls that you like trade up to get him. 

this would be the chiefs model. Alex smith was a good competent qb. They still traded up from 27 to 10 to draft mahomes. 
 

I think this makes sense.

If White ends up being the real deal, he’ll guard his spot like a pitbull and never relinquish it against his own terms. He’s already showing signs of that right now, which is just tremendous. Brady has/had the same mindset. 

MW has certain leadership qualities that you seriously can’t learn/teach. I think people are discounting that factor a lot here. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by DireJet
I’m a dummy who posts from a phone.