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Joe Douglas' Masterplan: NY Jets Strategy for the 2023 NFL Draft


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On 3/31/2023 at 3:34 PM, CanadaSteve said:

I do not think Mitchell is in the mix AT all for starting, especially at LT.  Now, AVT might be considered for either.  I absolutely think they will draft an OT, and could at 13 who would plug and play.  

That said, there is an opportunity to move down the draft board and potentially take a second-tier (if you will) OT prospect like Darnell Wright or Anton Harrison, and get ANOTHER 2nd rounder to boot.  That will give you two in the second round (because lets face it, we are giving up a 2nd rounder for Rodgers).  We can then address C and perhaps DT both.  We could theoretically (by trading down about 7-10 spots) come away with the following:

1st round: OT Darnell Wright

2nd round: C Steve Avila or Joe Tippman

2nd round: DT Calijah Kancey or Siaka Ika

Then, basically trading a 3rd round pick and Elijah Moore for Aaron Rodgers.  plus 2024 draft capital.  

That might be another good off-season.  Time will tell.  ALL conjecture right now to keep us occupied until the reality of the draft actually happens!

 

I don't like this, unless it comes with the hindsight results that I require.

Also Mitchell should absolutely be in the mix to start. Let's recap another recent tackle: Fant was terrible and should be cut; then Fant was an elite pass blocker that Douglas has to 'pay da man' so we can keep teh continuity (which was before he then sucked again, of course).

There are legit concerns about his having F5L, but until there's someone who's demonstrated he's earned no competition, anyone who's shown anything should be in the mix. What should never be in the mix is giving up on a 2nd year player based on production that followed being thrown out there far earlier than they'd planned.

It might work out in the end, but force-feeding two rookies onto the line shouldn't be the must-do strategy for a team that might have as little as a one-year window with its current older QB.

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't like this, unless it comes with the hindsight results that I require.

Also Mitchell should absolutely be in the mix to start. Let's recap another recent tackle: Fant was terrible and should be cut; then Fant was an elite pass blocker that Douglas has to 'pay da man' so we can keep teh continuity (which was before he then sucked again, of course).

There are legit concerns about his having F5L, but until there's someone who's demonstrated he's earned no competition, anyone who's shown anything should be in the mix. What should never be in the mix is giving up on a 2nd year player based on production that followed being thrown out there far earlier than they'd planned.

It might work out in the end, but force-feeding two rookies onto the line shouldn't be the must-do strategy for a team that might have as little as a one-year window with its current older QB.

*future older QB

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Bowling ball.  Knives.

alot of people said that about Quinnen Williams too 

that he wasn't going to be good because once i liked Drob 

meanwhile he's the best player on the team by any measure 

add another high end DT next to QW it turns a strength (inside pass rush) into an overwhelming advantage 

it also helps with the QW negotiation, giving the Jets leverage 

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On 3/31/2023 at 2:34 PM, CanadaSteve said:

I do not think Mitchell is in the mix AT all for starting, especially at LT.  Now, AVT might be considered for either.  I absolutely think they will draft an OT, and could at 13 who would plug and play.  

That said, there is an opportunity to move down the draft board and potentially take a second-tier (if you will) OT prospect like Darnell Wright or Anton Harrison, and get ANOTHER 2nd rounder to boot.  That will give you two in the second round (because lets face it, we are giving up a 2nd rounder for Rodgers).  We can then address C and perhaps DT both.  We could theoretically (by trading down about 7-10 spots) come away with the following:

1st round: OT Darnell Wright

2nd round: C Steve Avila or Joe Tippman

2nd round: DT Calijah Kancey or Siaka Ika

Then, basically trading a 3rd round pick and Elijah Moore for Aaron Rodgers.  plus 2024 draft capital.  

That might be another good off-season.  Time will tell.  ALL conjecture right now to keep us occupied until the reality of the draft actually happens!

 

This is what I think and hope for, a modest trade back.

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

alot of people said that about Quinnen Williams too 

that he wasn't going to be good because once i liked Drob 

Actually I said he'd suck because he was drafted by Mike Maccagnan.

1 out of Macc's 34 picks worked out.  And somehow he was even worse at the FA's/contracts/extensions side of things.

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47 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

I'm on the Dalton Kincaid train.

Tired of never ever having a difference-making TE.  Jets TE drought has been as long as the QB one.

And 2nd round is sweet spot for the position:  Kelce, Hunter Henry, Gronk.

No more DTs.  Find some cheap space eaters in FA.  Make a trade.  Don't care.

That is a good hedge.  You say you wanted Kincaid, but you wanted him in the 2nd.  That way when the Jets don't draft him and he is gone by our 2nd you can go either way.

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On 4/2/2023 at 1:03 PM, Jack Straw said:

Warren Sapp and Aaron Donald were similar athletes coming out but had much more dominant college careers (10+ sacks/season). Kancey's college production + size make me concerned he's more Ed Oliver than Aaron Donald, which is not worth the 13th pick in the draft IMO.

Kancey had 47 QB pressures. That's definitely productivity. There was a couple of pressures in the Tennessee tape in which he failed to complete the sacks. Ed Oliver IMO is a better prospect then both Donald and Kancey. Ed Oliver competition and matchups weren't that impressive however while at Houston. Unless you mean in the pros Kancey will be more like Oliver which is understandable as Donald is one of the best DT in his era. 

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1 hour ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

I'm on the Dalton Kincaid train.

Tired of never ever having a difference-making TE.  Jets TE drought has been as long as the QB one.

And 2nd round is sweet spot for the position:  Kelce, Hunter Henry, Gronk.

No more DTs.  Find some cheap space eaters in FA.  Make a trade.  Don't care.

I think he goes 1st round. Gronk was a 2nd rounder due to INJ and missing his entire Jr season. 

I wanted him in green until hearing the restructuring of both of our TEs. I think he and Ruckert would make a good duel as the catching and blocking TEs. 

I definitely disagree with the no more DT lol.

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't like this, unless it comes with the hindsight results that I require.

Also Mitchell should absolutely be in the mix to start. Let's recap another recent tackle: Fant was terrible and should be cut; then Fant was an elite pass blocker that Douglas has to 'pay da man' so we can keep teh continuity (which was before he then sucked again, of course).

There are legit concerns about his having F5L, but until there's someone who's demonstrated he's earned no competition, anyone who's shown anything should be in the mix. What should never be in the mix is giving up on a 2nd year player based on production that followed being thrown out there far earlier than they'd planned.

It might work out in the end, but force-feeding two rookies onto the line shouldn't be the must-do strategy for a team that might have as little as a one-year window with its current older QB.

I hear you.  I am just not that convinced Mitchell is ready.  I still think it is Becton's job to lose.

It might also be the case why a trade down would be better:  you secure more picks to fill more holes and depth, and only go after one potential starter.  Which, if we moved down, I think would be for a center.

I would like to see Cedric Ogbuehi signed.  I thought he played pretty good for an off the street signing.  At the very least, he is good depth.  No word on him yet, at least not what I have seen. 

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1 minute ago, CanadaSteve said:

I hear you.  I am just not that convinced Mitchell is ready.  I still think it is Becton's job to lose.

It might also be the case why a trade down would be better:  you secure more picks to fill more holes and depth, and only go after one potential starter.  Which, if we moved down, I think would be for a center.

I would like to see Cedric Ogbuehi signed.  I thought he played pretty good for an off the street signing.  At the very least, he is good depth.  No word on him yet, at least not what I have seen. 

I don't know why a rookie would be more ready than a 2nd year player. Depends what the team thought of him behind the scenes.

I'm fine with Ogbuehi without any team commitment. Also they should absolutely draft another tackle this year; I'm just not convinced it's imperative that this has to happen in round 1. 

I already posted earlier I'm totally ok with moving way down in the round for a center. No loss in prospect quality (may still get first dibs at the position), plus they could/should pick up an extra 2nd - or possibly a '24 1st - in the process. Take an OT with that free pick, and we still have a high 2nd to use on another position like LB, maybe DT, possibly FS, maybe WR or even TE; whatever looks good when we're on the clock. But at least then with the tackle being a day 2 pick there's zero pressure to force-feed him onto the field week 1 along with a rookie center.

jmo

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

alot of people said that about Quinnen Williams too 

that he wasn't going to be good because once i liked Drob 

meanwhile he's the best player on the team by any measure 

add another high end DT next to QW it turns a strength (inside pass rush) into an overwhelming advantage 

it also helps with the QW negotiation, giving the Jets leverage 

I'm with you - I'd love to add another elite DT to pair with QW. I think the practical problem though is that those guys are pretty hard to find and a lot of DTs who were supposed to be special end up being meh. 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I already posted earlier I'm totally ok with moving way down in the round for a center. No loss in prospect quality (may still get first dibs at the position), plus they could/should pick up an extra 2nd - or possibly a '24 1st - in the process. Take an OT with that free pick, and we still have a high 2nd to use on another position like LB, maybe DT, possibly FS, maybe WR or even TE; whatever looks good when we're on the clock. But at least then with the tackle being a day 2 pick there's zero pressure to force-feed him onto the field week 1 along with a rookie center.

jmo

That's what I tried doing in Mock Draft. Once Paris and Skoronski were taken, the difference between Alton Harrison (my #42 pick) & Broderick Jones and Dawand Jones were negligible. I used #43 on BJ Ojulare (Edge/LB)

I expect JD to trade down, grab extra picks this year and next and consummate the trade with GB on Day 2 of the Draft. 

 

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12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'm with you - I'd love to add another elite DT to pair with QW. I think the practical problem though is that those guys are pretty hard to find and a lot of DTs who were supposed to be special end up being meh. 

I remember going back and forth on Ed Oliver and QW and it turns out both are really good players. QW is just better. An undersized player like Kancey scares me less than a guy who gains 10 pounds in between combine and pro day (Jalen Carter). Kancey's flaws are right there for everyone to see. 

Kancey started out in January as like a late first/early second on most mocks now he's risen to the top 15 area

granted no one knows anything but his stock is rising. I started a thread in the draft forum to discuss him further 

 

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I don't think the Jets view Mitchell as a starting OT in 2023.  If he starts at RT in 2023, it will mean one of two things. Either he greatly exceeded his expectations this season or the Jets are thin at O line and, as a result, are willing to accept average to below average play at the RT position. I think the point is that JD wants a great O line, not an average O line and a great O line does not have the 2023 version of Mitchell at starting OT.

It is still very possible that JD trades back, but I see him goin OT with the first pick even if he trades back. He needs a great O line Becton is a wildcard - he could get injured or he could play great and want a sh*t ton of money - either way the Jets will need short and long term insurance at OT and that means that they draft one here.  

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Let’s keep drafting fat boy defensive tackles every 1st rd, like it’s the 1980s. Rex and mcCag did that too. Howd that work out? 3 out of 4 were probowlers (Sheldon, Leonard, Wilkerson) but the defense still sucked. Score points, people. Playmakers and Oline. 

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Let's face it, if P. Johnson Jr is there at 13 I believe that is going to be the pick. If he is not, then JD needs to do everything in his power to trade back into the late 1st. and get as many picks as he can acquire.

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9 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

Let's face it, if P. Johnson Jr is there at 13 I believe that is going to be the pick. If he is not, then JD needs to do everything in his power to trade back into the late 1st. and get as many picks as he can acquire.

I also believe you will actively see JD trade down this Draft, gaining more 2nd & 3rd round picks. This Draft is deep, if not unspectacular.

I think that JD’s hesitancy at signing big FA deals, apart from the ambiguities of the Rodgers contract moving forward, is that JD is loading up for next years’ better Draft. Currently we stand to gain a couple of Compensatory Picks for ‘24.

Current 2024 Selections:

Rd 1

Rd2

Rd 3

Rd 4- 2 picks (Trade Jake Martin and ‘24 5th for Broncos 4th)

No 5th Rd. Pick to Broncos

Rd 6

Rd 7- Traded to Ravens for Chuck Clark

 

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All I know is whatever happens, and however JD needs to make it happen, we finally need to have a really good OL. We have to be able to protect an almost 40 yr old Aaron Rodgers, but we also need a good OL for whoever our future QB will be after Aaron Rodgers.

I’m way too old now to keep watching our QB’s every season have to run for their lives on every play or our running game get shut down because our RB’s have no holes to run through. 

Before anyone reminds me that Rodgers has a quick release (thank god he does because he will he need it playing for us), so we don’t have to worry about our fragile OL anymore, just remember when you are entering your 40’s everything is a little slower than when you are in your 20’s. Does anyone think if Tom Brady took all the punishment that our QB’s routinely face every season, that Brady could have played into his 40’s if he got his head handed to him every other play like our QB’s always do?

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Has anyone asked ChatGPT about what the Jets should do in the draft?  Or how much they should give up to get Aaron Rodgers?  etc
Here is your answer... After asking ChatGPT ... It thinks trading for Deshaun is possible .. after he evidently is traded back to the Texans

QUESTION:

What should the NY Jets do if the trade for Aaron Rodgers fails?

ANSWER:

If the New York Jets are unable to successfully trade for Aaron Rodgers, there are several other options they can consider to improve their team. Here are some possibilities:

Stick with their current quarterback: The Jets could decide to stick with their current starting quarterback, whether it's Zach Wilson, who they drafted in the first round in 2021, or someone else. The team could use the draft or free agency to build up the rest of the roster and support their young quarterback's development.

Look for other trade options: If the Jets are still interested in trading for a quarterback, they could explore other options beyond Aaron Rodgers. For example, they could try to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans or Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, if either of those players become available.

Sign a free agent quarterback: The Jets could also look to sign a free agent quarterback to improve their team. Some notable quarterbacks who may be available in free agency include Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Marcus Mariota.

Build up other areas of the team: Instead of focusing solely on the quarterback position, the Jets could also use their resources to build up other areas of the team, such as the offensive line or defense. By improving the overall talent level of the team, they may be able to compete without a top-tier quarterback.

Ultimately, the best course of action for the Jets will depend on their assessment of their current roster, the available options in the trade and free agency markets, and their long-term goals as a franchise



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21 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I think he goes 1st round. Gronk was a 2nd rounder due to INJ and missing his entire Jr season. 

I wanted him in green until hearing the restructuring of both of our TEs. I think he and Ruckert would make a good duel as the catching and blocking TEs. 

I definitely disagree with the no more DT lol.

Good organizations plan ahead.

The embarrassing CJU and Conk deals can be "moved on from" next offseason.  They shouldn't let a potential 1-year logjam at the position prevent them from obtaining a legit difference maker.

Round 2 would be much more palatable though, even though the player sounds like exactly what the Jets need.

Nobody is Kelce.  So even though you might be able to use him stylistically in similar ways, pick #13 feels too rich.

It's not that I don't want good DTs.  But that is a position that can often be filled adequately with stopgaps and rentals in FA.

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16 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Here is your answer... After asking ChatGPT ... It thinks trading for Deshaun is possible .. after he evidently is traded back to the Texans emoji1787.pngemoji1787.pngemoji1787.pngemoji1787.png

QUESTION:

What should the NY Jets do if the trade for Aaron Rodgers fails?

ANSWER:

If the New York Jets are unable to successfully trade for Aaron Rodgers, there are several other options they can consider to improve their team. Here are some possibilities:

Stick with their current quarterback: The Jets could decide to stick with their current starting quarterback, whether it's Zach Wilson, who they drafted in the first round in 2021, or someone else. The team could use the draft or free agency to build up the rest of the roster and support their young quarterback's development.

Look for other trade options: If the Jets are still interested in trading for a quarterback, they could explore other options beyond Aaron Rodgers. For example, they could try to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans or Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, if either of those players become available.

Sign a free agent quarterback: The Jets could also look to sign a free agent quarterback to improve their team. Some notable quarterbacks who may be available in free agency include Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Marcus Mariota.

Build up other areas of the team: Instead of focusing solely on the quarterback position, the Jets could also use their resources to build up other areas of the team, such as the offensive line or defense. By improving the overall talent level of the team, they may be able to compete without a top-tier quarterback.

Ultimately, the best course of action for the Jets will depend on their assessment of their current roster, the available options in the trade and free agency markets, and their long-term goals as a franchise



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it is trained on older data so you won't get good answers on questions that require more current event context.

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On 3/31/2023 at 2:17 PM, Jack Straw said:

Joe Douglas is clearly going all-in for 2023, so how will he use the #13 pick in the draft? There will be plenty of fantastic talent still left on the board when pick 13 comes around, and Douglas will need to weigh overall talent against need to narrow in on his preferred choice. The biggest team needs for the Jets are DT, OT, C, OLB, S, and Edge. If history is any guide, Joe Douglas isn't using a premium pick on non-premium position, so it's highly unlikely that he selects a center, safety, or outside linebacker at 13.

That leaves OT, DT, and Edge as the remaining options. Let's examine each position:

Offensive Tackle: The Jets have Duane Brown coming back healthy and penciled in at LT, but he'll be 38 when camp opens. The Jets love Mitchell at RT and for good reason -- he was excellent there before his injury. Mitchell also offer unique versatility, having played some LT in college. He's got the length and athleticism to hold up at LT, and I wonder if Douglas and the coaching staff are debating giving him reps there when camp opens. Either way, if he's healthy, he'll be on the field, and can be penciled in at RT. Mekhi Becton is coming back from injury and looks to be in fantastic shape. In a perfect world, Becton wins the LT job, Mitchell wins the RT job, and Duane Brown gets to enjoy $9 million for being a high-end insurance policy at LT.

However, with Becton's long injury history and Brown's age, the Jets need to add talent at this position for future years. The hope is that any OT drafted this year won't have to see much of the field in 2023. But if Becton and Mitchell can stay healthy, is it worth drafting an OT at 13 who is unlikely to see the field? If so, Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson and/or Broderick Jones are the only three obvious, high-end LT talents worthy of the 13th selection. My gut tells me that JD would prefer Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones given their size, length, and upside, but all three are fantastic options. There is plenty of additional talent at OT, but no clear-cut, high-end LT candidates worthy of pick 13, IMO. At RT, you have fantastic talent in Darnell Wright, Dawand Jones, Anton Harrison and others that would be fantastic values between picks 20 - 50.

But when you're trying to win a Super Bowl in 2023, do you draft a player who might not contribute until 2024? My gut tell me no. Between Brown, Becton, and Mitchell, there are three options who can play LT in 2023. 

Defensive Tackle: Unless Jalen Carter slips to 13th, there is no game-changing DT at 13 worth taking. This would be best addressed in rounds 2-3.

Edge: Between Carl Lawson, JFM, Michael Clemons, Jermaine Johnson, and Bryce Huff, the Jets have plenty of talent on the edge to survive 2023. But with Lawson and Huff unlikely to be back in 2024, adding youth here is likely on JD's to-do list going into the draft. Will Anderson will be long gone by pick 13, which leaves Tyree Wilson and Nolan Smith as two candidates. Tyree Wilson is strong in run-support but isn't a game-wrecker off the edge, and likely wouldn't see the field much ahead of JFM, Michael Clemons and Jermaine Johnson on run downs. That makes him an unlikely choice, assuming he's even still on the board when the Jets pick. 

Nolan Smith, however, is an interesting option. He's a tremendous athlete and was great on the nation's best defense, and could come in and fill the void left by Kwon Alexander's departure. Smith would be an instant starter on day one, and offers tremendous versatility on a stacked Jets defense. Smith doesn't have the size of length of traditional pass rushers, but he's all over the field and can rush the passer, drop into coverage, and fly around the field in run support. I think he'd be best used as a "rover" chess piece that you move around the field. When I watch him play, I think, "he's Jamal Adams at 6'2, 240lbs." While I love Watson, there are plenty of great athletes at edge that can do 85-90% of what Smith does at a fraction of the cost, which makes me think that JD will go in another direction on draft day.

Final Thoughts: If the Jets decide to stick around at 13, they are guaranteed to land a good player at OT and/or Edge. However, with Douglas being forced to part with picks in exchange for Rodgers, I expect him to be active on draft day to recoup what was lost and more. Look for the Jets to move down multiple times on draft day, with the goal of converting pick 13 into four picks in the top 50. Ultimately, I think Douglas wants to leave the 2023 draft with four picks in the top 50, five picks in the top 75, and 6 picks in the top 100. And with those picks, he'll be able to address OT, C, OLB, WR, and more.

Don't rule out using a premium pick on a so called "non premium" position. Keep in mind while we do have some holes on the OL we also have a lot of players coming back and at one point last year when we were relatively healthy the line was playing at a pretty high level . That being said I still think the #13 pick will be spent on a LT and possibly another pick as well being spent on a C but considering the defense I can also see one of those picks being spent at LB or Safety . Sure we have good depth on defense over all and we are very good across the DL. Less depth at LB can be a problem but we are elite at CB can be Elite across the DL and are solid at LB (starters) the real weakness is at safety and if you can nab an elite type safety that can really put the defense into an all time type category. You look at some of the great defenses in history and every single one of them had a big time player at safety ... we do not. Now while building a team Safety is certainly not a good choice but when a team is built and performing at a high level like our defense is you have the luxury to do things a building team does not. 

I have not followed the draft like I usually do but if there is an elite type safety that can play BOTH aspects of the position don't rule out that second round pick being used if he's still available. Question becomes do you spend the early picks on Best player available at a position of need or just spend it on best player available in general ? I think on a well built team like we currently seem to be you have many more options than just the status quo

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6 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Here is your answer... After asking ChatGPT ... It thinks trading for Deshaun is possible .. after he evidently is traded back to the Texans emoji1787.pngemoji1787.pngemoji1787.pngemoji1787.png

QUESTION:

What should the NY Jets do if the trade for Aaron Rodgers fails?

ANSWER:

If the New York Jets are unable to successfully trade for Aaron Rodgers, there are several other options they can consider to improve their team. Here are some possibilities:

Stick with their current quarterback: The Jets could decide to stick with their current starting quarterback, whether it's Zach Wilson, who they drafted in the first round in 2021, or someone else. The team could use the draft or free agency to build up the rest of the roster and support their young quarterback's development.

Look for other trade options: If the Jets are still interested in trading for a quarterback, they could explore other options beyond Aaron Rodgers. For example, they could try to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans or Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, if either of those players become available.

Sign a free agent quarterback: The Jets could also look to sign a free agent quarterback to improve their team. Some notable quarterbacks who may be available in free agency include Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Marcus Mariota.

Build up other areas of the team: Instead of focusing solely on the quarterback position, the Jets could also use their resources to build up other areas of the team, such as the offensive line or defense. By improving the overall talent level of the team, they may be able to compete without a top-tier quarterback.

Ultimately, the best course of action for the Jets will depend on their assessment of their current roster, the available options in the trade and free agency markets, and their long-term goals as a franchise

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Those are some bad answers.  Are you sure you didn't ask this question to "MaccagnanGPT"?  

 

Quote

The Jets could decide to stick with their current starting quarterback, whether it's Zach Wilson, who they drafted in the first round in 2021, or someone else

Someone else?!  Streveler?  (Who can't throw the ball)

 

Quote

Look for other trade options: If the Jets are still interested in trading for a quarterback, they could explore other options beyond Aaron Rodgers. For example, they could try to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans or Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, if either of those players become available.

I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson is available.

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On 4/4/2023 at 12:30 PM, bitonti said:

alot of people said that about Quinnen Williams too 

that he wasn't going to be good because once i liked Drob 

meanwhile he's the best player on the team by any measure 

add another high end DT next to QW it turns a strength (inside pass rush) into an overwhelming advantage 

it also helps with the QW negotiation, giving the Jets leverage 

I sort of agree.

Adding another inside pass rusher helps immensely, although D Tackles don't usually light it up their rookie year.  I do agree, it makes a huge strength of the team, to have 2 potentially excellent players next to each other, both under 26.

Quinnen is getting paid either way, whatever they draft won't impact his salary much.  I honestly think his gets done right after the draft, I think it's hard to figure how the payments have to be made (how back loaded, whatever) until they know who is playing QB next year, and for how much.

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