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Jets Have to Cut 35 Players - Here's my analysis


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40 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Gonna agree with several of the comments so far:

Definitely think the FB Bawden makes the team.  

Kuntz almost assuredly goes to the P.S., too many bodies ahead of him and he isn't ready for primetime yet.  He's on the roster next year when Uzomah or Conklin or both are dumped.

I see the logic of Solomon Thomas sticking, but as Max says, there is no lossless cut here, it's an over-invested group, and you can only have so many, we're going to cut someone decent.

I could see them only go with 5 WR's (Wilson/Lazard/Hardman/Cook/Someone) and putting a Brownlee or Gipson or the like on the P.S.

Universally, I think Jets Fans think "we can't put X on the P.S., he'll get taken right away" far too much.  It doesn't happen that much, and fans over-estimate how good they think our fringe guys are.  Even if a Brownleee is snagged, such is life, you have to prioritize the roster as a whole, not one position group, and fringe WR's are findable via street FA's if the need arises midseason, or via another WR you sign to your own P.S. from someone elses castoffs.

If both Cook and Hall were 100%, and Izzy hadn't gotten hurt, I could absolutely see BOTH Carter and Knight cut/on the P.S.  They're clearly the worst two RB's on this team today.  But with all three of the better backs hurt/recovering, Carter may make the team for a little while, and get P.S.'ed once Izzy returns and/or Cook/Hall show they're 100%.  Again, he's not good enough a RB to hold him active over better players at other positions.

I could see the Jets carry 4 backs for a bit (Cook/Hall/Izzy/Carter) and cut Carter to the P.S. when Izzy is healthy, and bring Kuntz or Brownlee/Gipson to the active  roster then.  Something to think about.

 

The prime thing about our guys getting picked is that the 'new york hype machine' will get these guys so much press that they get noticed by every other team moreso than other places/players.  Maybe Woodhead was going to get snagged off the waiver wire anyway, but they certainly got him noticed!

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51 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Gonna agree with several of the comments so far:

Definitely think the FB Bawden makes the team.  

Kuntz almost assuredly goes to the P.S., too many bodies ahead of him and he isn't ready for primetime yet.  He's on the roster next year when Uzomah or Conklin or both are dumped.

I see the logic of Solomon Thomas sticking, but as Max says, there is no lossless cut here, it's an over-invested group, and you can only have so many, we're going to cut someone decent.

I could see them only go with 5 WR's (Wilson/Lazard/Hardman/Cook/Someone) and putting a Brownlee or Gipson or the like on the P.S.

Universally, I think Jets Fans think "we can't put X on the P.S., he'll get taken right away" far too much.  It doesn't happen that much, and fans over-estimate how good they think our fringe guys are.  Even if a Brownleee is snagged, such is life, you have to prioritize the roster as a whole, not one position group, and fringe WR's are findable via street FA's if the need arises midseason, or via another WR you sign to your own P.S. from someone elses castoffs.

If both Cook and Hall were 100%, and Izzy hadn't gotten hurt, I could absolutely see BOTH Carter and Knight cut/on the P.S.  They're clearly the worst two RB's on this team today.  But with all three of the better backs hurt/recovering, Carter may make the team for a little while, and get P.S.'ed once Izzy returns and/or Cook/Hall show they're 100%.  Again, he's not good enough a RB to hold him active over better players at other positions.

I could see the Jets carry 4 backs for a bit (Cook/Hall/Izzy/Carter) and cut Carter to the P.S. when Izzy is healthy, and bring Kuntz or Brownlee/Gipson to the active  roster then.  Something to think about.

 

I assume you meant Cobb instead of Cook as WR4

 

i think Gipson is very likely WR5 given that he is a plus returner. 

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I believe this list is mostly spot on.  Great job!

Solomon Thomas would be a very tough cut.  The Jets DL is absolutely stacked!

Is there a world where Abanikanda starts the season on PUP or the Jets only keep 4 CB on the roster (with so many safeties being kept)?  This would allow them to not have to cut Thomas.

There is a chance they try to get Kuntz on the practice squad.

A couple of weeks ago I thought Knight was a virtual lock to make the roster.  That all changed when they signed Cook.

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Before guys get IRed they have to clear waivers.  i think that means some unexpected cuts that are then brought back.  I think older guys that were on the street are the best choice for this, so Cobb, Amos, Turner, Schweiyzer are likely 

They might go with 4 corners but not week 1 while Echols serves his suspension.  

I like Bawden and Thomas to make it.  Not too high on Carter or Knight right now.

@Warfish eye on the spellchecker. You keep getting Cook when you mean Cobb and we have both.

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15 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Before guys get IRed they have to clear waivers.  i think that means some unexpected cuts that are then brought back.  I think older guys that were on the street are the best choice for this, so Cobb, Amos, Turner, Schweiyzer are likely 

They might go with 4 corners but not week 1 while Echols serves his suspension.  

I like Bawden and Thomas to make it.  Not too high on Carter or Knight right now.

@Warfish eye on the spellchecker. You keep getting Cook when you mean Cobb and we have both.

Did you mean to type PSed? You don't have to pass guys through waivers to put them onto IR - you can move them straight to IR. If it happens in before final cuts, they are out for the year. If it happens after the 53 is set, they are eligible for return.

You do see some guys getting waived/injured, and then reverting to IR, but that's usually guys who were on the bubble anyway.

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12 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

Did you mean to type PSed? You don't have to pass guys through waivers to put them onto IR - you can move them straight to IR. If it happens in before final cuts, they are out for the year. If it happens after the 53 is set, they are eligible for return.

You do see some guys getting waived/injured, and then reverting to IR, but that's usually guys who were on the bubble anyway.

Good point.  I got a little ahead of myself.   That would work for guys like Warren , JBC or maybe Kuntz that you want to stash.  It makes no sense for guys like Izzy and Lawson. 

 

I see that you mentioned short term IR after the roster clears so it sounds like I was responding to your well thought our and probably very accurate analysis.  it wasn't it was a general comment to some people acting like say putting  Izzy to IR would keep us from waiving someone.

If Lawson is done for the season can't they save a ton cutting him?

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1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Good point.  I got a little ahead of myself.   That would work for guys like Warren , JBC or maybe Kuntz that you want to stash.  It makes no sense for guys like Izzy and Lawson. 

 

I see that you mentioned short term IR after the roster clears so it sounds like I was responding to your well thought our and probably very accurate analysis.  it wasn't it was a general comment to some people acting like say putting  Izzy to IR would keep us from waiving someone.

If Lawson is done for the season can't they save a ton cutting him?

I believe we reworked Lawson's contract, which makes him harder to cut this year. Also, if we cut him while he's injured, he can file for the veteran termination guarantee and still receive his pay for the year. So, I think he's with us this year.

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9 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I would be incredibly surprised if Carter Warren was cut.

Same with Nick Bawden.

I’d replace both of those guys with Kuntz and Brownlee, who I think they will try and stash on the practice squad.

Via The Athletic

"The Jets can cut Bawden as a vested veteran and he won’t hit waivers, which would allow them to turn around and sign him back on the roster once (or if) rookie offensive tackle Carter Warren is placed on injured reserve following the initial cuts down to 53. The Jets like Bawden, a fullback, both as an extra blocker on offense and in special teams."

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7 hours ago, Warfish said:

I could see them only go with 5 WR's (Wilson/Lazard/Hardman/Cook/Someone) and putting a Brownlee or Gipson or the like on the P.S.

Agree with almost all of your post except here.  I think Gipson is a lock because of specials as a return man.  

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8 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Via The Athletic

"The Jets can cut Bawden as a vested veteran and he won’t hit waivers, which would allow them to turn around and sign him back on the roster once (or if) rookie offensive tackle Carter Warren is placed on injured reserve following the initial cuts down to 53. The Jets like Bawden, a fullback, both as an extra blocker on offense and in special teams."

Ok but this would mean Warren has to miss significant time and if pressed into action would not be available, correct? Even with this loophole caveat, I don’t see it happening. 

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14 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Zero chance they are cutting Warren. Zilch. Nada. Not happening.

I agree.  Though I do recall a week or so ago Saleh was asked about Warren's status and he said paraphrasing "he's dealing with another injury"...

I found it interesting how he said "another injury".....Coaches need players to be available. 

He won't be cut but it was an interesting comment for a drafted rookie.

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1 hour ago, jetswin said:

nice work guys, especially to the original poster...

 

I'd venture that Hardee could be or should ba a potential cut.  He is a special teams ace, however new rules might downplay that need. He brings nothing as a position player.

The hardee stuff again???  Hes one of the biggest leaders on this team.  Hes not a camp cut.

When hardees time is done here, he will be let go in the offseason.  You dont bring captains through camp then cut them.

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2 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Ok but this would mean Warren has to miss significant time and if pressed into action would not be available, correct? Even with this loophole caveat, I don’t see it happening. 

What's IR now - miss minimum three or four weeks?  I believe it's now minimum fours weeks...COVID it was three

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15 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The hardee stuff again???  Hes one of the biggest leaders on this team.  Hes not a camp cut.

When hardees time is done here, he will be let go in the offseason.  You dont bring captains through camp then cut them.

Unless your name is Belichick.

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Interesting 

 

Good - DE Jermaine Johnson: Positive grades overall (78), in run defense (74.1), pass rush (75.8) and tackling (75.6). -

CB Brandin Echols: 91.9 overall grade, best on the team. 6 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards, 2.8 passer rating allowed in 56 coverage snaps. -

OL Joe Tippmann: 1 pressure allowed in 91 pass-blocking snaps. 66.4 pass-blocking grade.

- G Laken Tomlinson: 77.6 overall grade, 1 pressure allowed, 30 pass-blocking snaps -

OT Billy Turner: 86.1 pass blocking grade, 0 pressures allowed in 30 pass blocking snaps. -

RB Izzy Abanikanda: 6 missed tackles forced (10th among all RBs) -

DT Quinton Jefferson: 87.4 overall grade, 4th among all DTs -

DT Solomon Thomas: 81.7 run defense grade -

LB Jamien Sherwood: 84.2 tackling grade (7th among LBs) -

S Trey Dean: 80.9 tackling grade, 78.4 special teams grade -

S Ashtyn Davis: In coverage, 6 targets, 3 catches, 2 yards allowed on 73 coverage snaps.

Not as good -

OL Wes Schweitzer: 17.0 pass-blocking grade

- OT Max Mitchell: 36.7 run blocking grade -

RB Michael Carter: 2.13 yards after contact per rush -

RB Bam Knight: 40.4 overall grade (160th of 163 RBs graded) -

LB Zaire Barnes: 7 missed tackles. In coverage: 15 targets, 15 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD allowed. -

CB Bryce Hall: 59.7 overall grade -

Sherwood: In coverage, 7 targets, 6 catches, 69 yards allowed -

TE Zack Kuntz: 58.3 overall grade, 55.8 run blocking grade, 52.7 special teams grade -

S Marquis Waters: 3 missed tackles, 118.8 passer rating allowed

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2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Before guys get IRed they have to clear waivers.  i think that means some unexpected cuts that are then brought back.  I think older guys that were on the street are the best choice for this, so Cobb, Amos, Turner, Schweiyzer are likely 

They might go with 4 corners but not week 1 while Echols serves his suspension.  

I like Bawden and Thomas to make it.  Not too high on Carter or Knight right now.

@Warfish eye on the spellchecker. You keep getting Cook when you mean Cobb and we have both.

Aye just going too fast.  My bad yall.

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Surprised nobody is talking about how Rodgers is a lock to be cut after how explosive ZW was this off season. Like thanks for a few weeks of mentorship but this team has moved past relying on an aging QB past his prime. Some day players like Rodgers won't be on this team. That day is Tuesday. 

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It just seems nice that they have enough quality players that it is likely that a number of cuts get claimed by other teams. There were a number of years when it was difficult to figure out who to keep because there weren’t enough good players.

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5 hours ago, mrcoops said:

I believe we reworked Lawson's contract, which makes him harder to cut this year. Also, if we cut him while he's injured, he can file for the veteran termination guarantee and still receive his pay for the year. So, I think he's with us this year.

what exactly is wrong with him?  they have just said "back" but no details on severity.

he's been a massive terrible free agent signing.

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6 hours ago, mrcoops said:

I believe we reworked Lawson's contract, which makes him harder to cut this year. Also, if we cut him while he's injured, he can file for the veteran termination guarantee and still receive his pay for the year. So, I think he's with us this year.

He basically costs the same this year and next whether they cut him or not. He’s has a cap number of $3M for this season. Next year, his contract voids and there’s a $6.3M dead cap hit. He’s only 28 years old. He’s another guy in a prove it year, to the Jets or someone else. 

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7 hours ago, mrcoops said:

Great work, as ever, Sarge - thanks.

Here's my final guess at our initial 53 man - which would change, after IR moves and waiver claims.

I can see both Lawson and Warren going onto IR after the initial roster is set, allowing them to return once healthy.  Izzy could also be a candidate for short-term IR.

Guy I am most surprised that I am not including is Bryce Hall.  He hasn't looked good, and is likely traded or waived and claimed at the cutdown.

I've also listed some alternative PS guys at positions where we are cutting players with a decent chance of being claimed from waivers before we can sign them to the PS.

Active Roster

1.    Aaron Rodgers, QB
2.    Zach Wilson, QB
3.    Breece Hall, RB
4.    Dalvin Cook, RB
5.    Michael Carter, RB
6.    Israel Abanikanda, RB*
7.    Nick Bawden, FB
8.    CJ Uzomah, TE
9.    Tyler Conklin, TE
10.    Jeremy Ruckert, TE
11.    Zach Kuntz, TE
12.    Garrett Wilson, WR
13.    Allen Lazard, WR
14.    Randall Cobb, WR
15.    Mecole Hardman, WR
16.    Xavier Gipson, WR
17.    Duane Brown, T
18.    Dalvin Tomlinson, G
19.    Connor McGovern, C/G
20.    Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T
21.    Mekhi Becton, T
22.    Joe Tippman, C/G
23.    Wes Schweitzer, C/G
24.    Billy Turner, T/G
25.    Max Mitchell, T
26.    Carter Warren, T*
27.    Carl Lawson, DE*
28.    Quinnen Williams, DT
29.    Al Woods, DT
30.    John Franklin-Myers, DE/DT
31.    Jermaine Johnson, DE
32.    Will McDonald, DE
33.    Bryce Huff, DE
34.    Michael Clemons, DE/DT
35.    Quinton Jefferson, DT/DE
36.    Solomon Thomas, DT/DE
37.    CJ Mosley, LB
38.    Quincy Williams, LB
39.    Jamien Sherwood, LB
40.    Zaire Barnes, LB
41.    Ahmad Gardner, CB
42.    DJ Reed, CB
43.    Tony Adams, S
44.    Jordan Whitehead, S
45.    Michael Carter, CB
46.    Jimmy Moreland, CB
47.    Justin Hardee, CB/ST
48.    Adrian Amos, S
49.    Ashtyn Davis, S
50.    Trey Dean, S
51.    Greg Zuerlein, K
52.    Thomas Morstead, P
53.    Thomas Hennessy, LSN

Suspended (Week 1) – Brandin Echols, CB
PUP (4 weeks) – Jarrick Bernard-Converse, CB/S
*Player with an injury, short-term IR candidate after final cuts
**Player with a good chance of being re-signed to 53 after IR moves

Practice Squad

1.    Tim Boyle, QB**
2.    Bam Knight, RB** (alternative: Travis Dye, RB)
3.    Tony Yeboah, TE
4.    E.J Jenkins, TE
5.    Jason Brownlee, WR (alternative: Jerome Kapp, WR)
6.    Irvin Charles**, WR
7.    Alex Erickson, WR
8.    Grant Hermanns, T
9.    Greg Senat, T
10.    Trystan Colon, C/G (alternative: Adam Pankey G/T)
11.    Tanzel Smart**, DT (alternative: Bruce Hector, DT)
12.    Pita Taumoepenu, DE
13.    Deslin Alexandre, DE
14.    Chazz Surratt**, LB
15.    Claudin Cherelus, LB
16.    Derrick Langford, CB
 

#18 will certainly be confused if we have HIM starting at guard lol

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QB (2) : Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson

FB (1): Nick Bawden

RB (4): Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, Michael Carter, Bam Knight

WR (6): Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Mecole Hardman, Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee

TE (4): Jeremy Ruckert, Tyler Conklin, CJ Uzomah, Zach Kuntz 

OL (9) : AVT, Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Meckhi Becton, Billy Turner, Joe Tippman, Max Mitchell, Wes Schweitzer

DL (9): Quinnen Williams, JFM, Al Woods, Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Bryce Huff, Micheal Clemons, Quinton Jefferson, Solomon Thomas

LB (5): CJ Mosley, Quincy Wiliams, Jamien Sherwood, Zaire Barnes, Chazz Surratt

S (5): Tony Adams, Jordan Whitehead, Adrian Amos, Ashtyn Davis, Trey Dean

CB(5): Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, Michael Carter II, Justin Hardee, Jimmy Moreland

ST(3): Greg Zeurlein (K), Thomas Morstead (P), Thomas Hennessey (LS)

IR: Carter Warren (OL), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB), Carl Lawson (DL), Izzy Abanikanda (RB)

SUS: Brandin Echols (CB)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:

There are some IR moves that many people are not taking into account that will also allow us to keep most of the promising players we want. For starters both OL Carter Warren and CB Bernard-Converse look like they will start on IR. The Carl Lawson situation has been very quiet and Saleh didn't exactly give a ringing endorsement that he will be able to start Week 1. With the amount of depth at DL, I do think Joe and Saleh start off Carl Lawson on IR and bring him back when fully healthy.

Like many I can see the Jets cutting Bam Knight but I think the wildcard is if Joe Douglas puts Izzy on IR to start. With Breece and Dalvin both coming off major injuries, IMO the Jets will want a health back for depth to start the season. Bam will certainly be claimed by another team if cut (my money is BUF). There is value to keeping Bam around until Izzy is fully healed. 

I could see a swap with Brownlee & Malik but I am going with Brownlee because he's healthier and actually did show way more than Malik. I don't think Malik's Rodger connection saves him.

 

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