Boy, Josh Allen is slinging it

[redlichtie]

1 hour ago, gEYno said:

Yeah, my bad for not specifying I meant within the modern era.  Big score for you.

Thanks

in all seriousness the point is well made that the vast majority of NFL starters will have at least averaged 60% in one of their full seasons as a starter but there are outliers across all the eras.

Matt Stafford is a pretty decent QB in the league. He’s won the square root of f*ck all in the grand scheme of things but i’d Imagine most of us would consider him a top 15 if not top 10 QB in the league, and would take him on the Jets in a heartbeat ....57.2% career completions in college....not a whole lot better than Josh Allen(a whopping 1%)but considering the talent he had around him at Georgia?

I’m almost at the stage where the constant comparisons to Hack have me convinced he’ll be the exact opposite as a pro and very likely be the guy everyone ends up wondering why they passed on. We do this all the time, we shy away from a certain type of player or coach because of the last guy. 

Not saying he’s the guy I want but there are always outliers, bottom line is do you think he can be better than any QB currently on our roster? I’m guessing most people in this site are going to say no because they are convinced the guy is Hack 2.0 but as nycdan points out in another post another small school guy with less than impressive numbers in college ended up being Brett Favre, at the time the shocker was that Ron Wolf claimed to he was their No1 ranked  prospect in the entire draft...again it’s a slightly different era but it’s not like we are going back to the days of Jim Thorpe or Sonny Jurgensen...Good scouting will see where a player is potentially better as a pro than the numbers suggest. It does happen.

The modern era is getting harder and harder to evaluate QB’s because almost all of them are running high-octane ‘air raid’ attacks that leave a huge question mark over their ability to translate to a pro-style offense, If it’s just video game numbers you want, especially that 60% rule,  then we just draft Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk and don’t Look back.

 

[PS17]

58 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

70% completion, 339 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

68% completion, 371 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Last game of the season (twice), with one of them a bowl game, for which QB?

The suspense is killing me.....

[Mackman55]

3 hours ago, BigO said:

No way he lasts till the 9th pick NO WAY. This draft will simulate the ‘83 draft when 6 QB’s were taken in 1st round. Teams ALWAYS reach when they need a QB. Browns, Giants, Jets, Broncos, Skins and Cards, could all be easily go QB in rd 1.  In this order it looks like we could have a good shot at 1 of the top 4 of Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Allen or Jackson who are the top 5 that are prime candidates to go in rd 1. But teams often reach and trade up. Can we afford to sit back and watch Mac sip his coffee while others leap frog our spot. It would surely be his demise. 

I said "in range" of Mayfield which means we still might have to move up a few spots. So much still needs to unfold before the exact scenario is clear regarding his availability. Will Darnold come out or stay? How will Mayfield perform in the playoffs? What is the exact final draft order? Will Washington and Cincinnati sign their current QB's? How will the the QB prospects perform at the combine? Who will the Jets sign in free agency? Will the Colts entertain trading luck?  All these questions need to be answered before a true draft strategy can be articulated. One thing is clear, the pressure will really be on Mac...if he's still here.....   

[NoBowles]

I have an idea, let’s all come up with a highly predictive statistic to rule out franchise QBs.

who is in?

lets look at all the franchise QBs of th past 20 years, and look at the month and day of their birthday.

then we can put out a list of undraftable college QBs if they don’t have a birthday month and day that is on that list.

#mathisnotgayusingitincorrectlyis

oh, and come up for air more, having your head in between men’s legs while they stretch out your arm is not good for the brain.

[redlichtie]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

70% completion, 339 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

68% completion, 371 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Last game of the season (twice), with one of them a bowl game, for which QB?

Pretty sure Hack threw for 370 and 4 td’s iin one bowl game

[RutgersJetFan]

23 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

I’m almost at the stage where the constant comparisons to Hack have me convinced he’ll be the exact opposite as a pro and very likely be the guy everyone ends up wondering why they passed on.

If the Jets don't draft him, then yeah probably. If the Jets do draft him, he'll be a big ol' bag of penises.

[redlichtie]

35 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

If the Jets don't draft him, then yeah probably. If the Jets do draft him, he'll be a big ol' bag of penises.

So true ??

[kelly]

1 hour ago, peebag said:

Rosen>Darnold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mayfield>>>>>>>>Allen

pretty much.. 

[BigO]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

70% completion, 339 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

68% completion, 371 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Last game of the season (twice), with one of them a bowl game, for which QB?

Geno Smith vs. Miami Game 16, 2014 perfect QB rating. So much for 1 game wonders ?

[56mehl56]

28 minutes ago, kelly said:

pretty much.. 

I disagree I don't feel there's much of a difference between Rosen , Darnold or Mayfield. Allen is a wildcard and will probably shoot up draft boards late like Wentz did. The QB i have my eye on is Kurt Benkert of Virginia ,if he has a good game against Army and shows well in the Senior Bowl I  believe he'll jump up into the top 5 for Qb's 

[ZachEY]

2 hours ago, NoBowles said:

This is a classic example of statistics being by people who don’t fully understand them, and touting them as something more than they are.

does college completion percentage matter? Of course. Is it the be all end all, hell no.

Also, why are we picking 20 years other than that being the time period that statistically suits your argument?

 

20 years is a solid timeframe of modern passing rules.  And frankly, that the examples I’m getting are 30 and 40 years old kind of proves the point pretty damn strongly.

[redlichtie]

59 minutes ago, gEYno said:

20 years is a solid timeframe of modern passing rules.  And frankly, that the examples I’m getting are 30 and 40 years old kind of proves the point pretty damn strongly.

Matt Stafford is still playing

[Philc1]

22 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Josh Allen ok by me. 

Get rid of all the sh*t bag QB's on our current roster. 

 

I’m not high an Allen but if drafting him means no more Petty/Hack stink on our roster fine

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, NoBowles said:

I have an idea, let’s all come up with a highly predictive statistic to rule out franchise QBs.

who is in?

lets look at all the franchise QBs of th past 20 years, and look at the month and day of their birthday.

then we can put out a list of undraftable college QBs if they don’t have a birthday month and day that is on that list.

#mathisnotgayusingitincorrectlyis

oh, and come up for air more, having your head in between men’s legs while they stretch out your arm is not good for the brain.

Below 60% completion rate in college 

 

Something Hack and Allen have in common

 

 

[ZachEY]

4 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Thanks

in all seriousness the point is well made that the vast majority of NFL starters will have at least averaged 60% in one of their full seasons as a starter but there are outliers across all the eras.

Matt Stafford is a pretty decent QB in the league. He’s won the square root of f*ck all in the grand scheme of things but i’d Imagine most of us would consider him a top 15 if not top 10 QB in the league, and would take him on the Jets in a heartbeat ....57.2% career completions in college....not a whole lot better than Josh Allen(a whopping 1%)but considering the talent he had around him at Georgia?

I’m almost at the stage where the constant comparisons to Hack have me convinced he’ll be the exact opposite as a pro and very likely be the guy everyone ends up wondering why they passed on. We do this all the time, we shy away from a certain type of player or coach because of the last guy. 

Not saying he’s the guy I want but there are always outliers, bottom line is do you think he can be better than any QB currently on our roster? I’m guessing most people in this site are going to say no because they are convinced the guy is Hack 2.0 but as nycdan points out in another post another small school guy with less than impressive numbers in college ended up being Brett Favre, at the time the shocker was that Ron Wolf claimed to he was their No1 ranked  prospect in the entire draft...again it’s a slightly different era but it’s not like we are going back to the days of Jim Thorpe or Sonny Jurgensen...Good scouting will see where a player is potentially better as a pro than the numbers suggest. It does happen.

The modern era is getting harder and harder to evaluate QB’s because almost all of them are running high-octane ‘air raid’ attacks that leave a huge question mark over their ability to translate to a pro-style offense, If it’s just video game numbers you want, especially that 60% rule,  then we just draft Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk and don’t Look back.

 

Stafford is the best recent example... but his numbers get better each year, so you’d have to take that into consideration vs. Allen who stays steady at his #.

Also, whether he’s better than anyone on our roster isn’t the reason to draft him and invest years in him.  You have to believe he can be a top tier QB.  It’s the one position where adequate isn’t enough imo.

[T0mShane]

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

70% completion, 339 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

68% completion, 371 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Last game of the season (twice), with one of them a bowl game, for which QB?

ONE IS HACK PINSTRIPE BOWL

[redlichtie]

2 hours ago, gEYno said:

Stafford is the best recent example... but his numbers get better each year, so you’d have to take that into consideration vs. Allen who stays steady at his #.

Also, whether he’s better than anyone on our roster isn’t the reason to draft him and invest years in him.  You have to believe he can be a top tier QB.  It’s the one position where adequate isn’t enough imo.

All fair enough points although i’d say Stafford is an example of an elite NFL QB who has improved his college numbers as a pro and really that is what this boils down to. Does the 56% for Allen preclude him from ever being great?.Is it possible he will be a better pro passer than he has been in college? Stafford does at least give a precedent. 57% career passer in college is doing alright.

‘Obviously the prevailing wind in the league is that you need to be a minimum 60% passer in college to be successful in the NFL but you can’t discount that is also in part due to the sheer amount playing in QB friendly spread systems. They are making one-read high percentage throws , rarely taking a snap under centre, never looking off a safety and hardly ever commanding a huddle, calling their own plays or making adjustments at the LOS.

Back in the Joe Montana days I doubt there were many guys hitting 66 or 70%. They were running entirely different systems,  Probably most barely hit 60. Conversely go back and look at Bryce Petty in college and you’ll see everything you want in terms of numbers, physical attributes, win-loss record  and leadership, but there was a reason the scouts all had him down pretty much unanimously as a mid-round pick. 

If Allen has far more of the tools to be successful running an NFL offense, tools that don’t show up on the stat sheet, and by nature that offense he was running involved making a lot less high percentage ‘easy’ throws then it’s to be expected his average isn’t that great. I’d be a lot happier if he was at least up around the 59-60 mark but the consensus apppears to be he wasn’t getting much help. Stafford by contrast had a young AJ Green and Knowshon Moreno to throw to plus a dominant OL.

as to your last point I agree.....mostly

although i’m not entirely convinced by any means that Allen is the guy I do get the sense he will be all or nothing, I can’t see him being mediocre. He’s definitely a risk but the rewards would be high.

Bear in mind that none of the other guys at this stage is a can’t miss prospect, every one of them has major questions marks, particularly guys like Mayfield(who I do like btw) and the others running those high-octane passer friendly schemes. Rosen is no sure thing and Darnold sure isn’t either. It’s also worth noting that Josh Allen is a pretty underrated athlete, he’s a dangerous runner with more than 500 yards rushing in 2016. 

I’m not looking to settle for adequate but we need to be better at QB and preferably not with some 34-38 year old band aid. If the scouts all seem to agree Allen is a top ten pick then we’d be mad not to believe that's a massive upgrade for us.

 

 

[redlichtie]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

ONE IS HACK PINSTRIPE BOWL

You could say he was on fire that day....or even, ablaize!

i thank you

[Sperm Edwards]

9 hours ago, BigO said:

Geno Smith vs. Miami Game 16, 2014 perfect QB rating. So much for 1 game wonders ?

Pretty much my point. It's generally poor judgment to choose to erase all the other games to focus on the one great one. 

Good for Allen that he had a great game. The reason he's got a 1st round grade (2nd at worst, from what I read) is because the physical ability is there if he was able to put it all together consistently. Thing is you could say that about not just him, or Hackenberg, but for almost every QB drafted ever (rare exceptions like Tebow notwithstanding). Putting it together consistently is kind of the whole trick; there aren't 20 guys walking around the country who do it.

If we draft him there had better be some rock-solid reason why his numbers were so unimpressive before this.

[Sperm Edwards]

10 hours ago, PS17 said:

The suspense is killing me.....

 

10 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Pretty sure Hack threw for 370 and 4 td’s iin one bowl game

 

9 hours ago, BigO said:

Geno Smith vs. Miami Game 16, 2014 perfect QB rating. So much for 1 game wonders ?

 

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

ONE IS HACK PINSTRIPE BOWL

 

Both were season-ending games from Hackenberg.

[Obrien2Toon]

11 hours ago, peebag said:

Rosen>Darnold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mayfield>>>>>>>>Allen

Yeah this is pretty much my board also

[sourceworx]

44 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Yeah this is pretty much my board also

My board's a little different.

[Stark]

I think Allen is Jake Locker, this article says Logan Thomas. I think the locker or Thomas comps are far more likely than Big Ben,or Cam. The fact that Allen has great physical tools is awesome, unfortunately he plays like garbage the minute he steps on a field against a decent team. Completion % is not good when you consider over half his games are against low level competition  he has low completion %, throws a lot of interceptions, and you can tell he isn’t comfortable playing from the pocket (which is funny when people use the “he plays in a pro style offense”)  Allen just has too many issues for me to be comfortable with the JETS drafting him.

http://thebiglead.com/2017/12/22/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-ben-roethlisberger-wyoming/

 

The NFL regular season has less than 10 days left, and once it ends, we enter the silly season of the NFL Draft. It’s the silly season because nobody knows anything, but everyone pretends to be in the know.

Because so many NFL teams are in dire need of a QB, and because there are plenty of quarterbacks who will be entering the draft, you’re going to hear some silly things.

Basically, anything about Wyoming QB Josh Allen will be silly. Like this!

Why does it have to be Ben Roethlisberger? Why not Logan Thomas, the former Virginia Tech QB?

Ben Roethliseberger (6-foot-5, 240 pounds) at Miami (OH)
Freshman: 63.3% comp, 8.1 ypa, 25 TD, 13 INT
Sophomore: 63.3% comp, 7.6 ypa, 22 TD, 11 INT
Junior: 69.1% comp, 9.1 ypa, 37 TD, 10 INT

Logan Thomas (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) at Virginia Tech
Sophomore: 59.8% comp, 7.7 ypa, 19 TD, 10 INT
Junior: 51.3% comp, 6.9 ypa, 18 TD, 16 INT
Senior: 56.5% comp, 7.2 ypa, 15 TD, 13 INT

Josh Allen (6-foot-5, 233 pounds) at Wyoming
Sophomore: 56% comp, 8.6 ypa, 28 TD, 15 INT
Junior: 56.2% comp, 6.6 ypa, 13 TD, 6 INT

Yes, Josh Allen played in a meaningless Bowl Game and looked sharp in 17 throws against the mighty Central Michigan defense. Get excited, Josh Allen fans.

Mentioning Josh Allen in the same breath of Ben Roethlisberger for any reason is disrespectful to the Steelers future Hall of Fame QB. A much more accurate comp is former Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas, who tantalized scouts with his measureables, was drafted by Arizona, and now plays tight end for the Buffalo Bills

[Apache 51]

On 12/22/2017 at 5:46 PM, joewilly12 said:

Josh Allen ok by me. 

Get rid of all the sh*t bag QB's on our current roster. 

 

And you played where in college, then pro?

[Gastineau Lives]

On 12/22/2017 at 6:38 PM, HessStation said:

2 grand the QB rankings will look a lot different draft day than now 

I just want to know how you came up with that number.

[Gastineau Lives]

1 hour ago, Apache 51 said:

And you played where in college, then pro?

This post is puzzling.

[Apache 51]

45 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This post is puzzling.

If you can't figure it out I can't help you.

[Gastineau Lives]

2 minutes ago, Apache 51 said:

If you can't figure it out I can't help you.

How about you express yourself instead of writing lazy half thought posts. That would help ALOT.

[HessStation]

2 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I just want to know how you came up with that number.

Spontaneously 

[Apache 51]

3 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

How about you express yourself instead of writing lazy half thought posts. That would help ALOT.

I'm sorry, you are correct, like an idiot I assume I'm talking to educated people.

I guess I should of originally responded,  Who the **** are you to refer to anyone in the NFL, or any other profession or situation for that matter as such you ****in  ''sh*t bag''. 

Can you understand that?

[Guilhermezmc]

He's horrible, do you guys even watch tape? He should have a undrafated grade after this season.

[Gastineau Lives]

4 hours ago, Apache 51 said:

I'm sorry, you are correct, like an idiot I assume I'm talking to educated people.

I guess I should of originally responded,  Who the **** are you to refer to anyone in the NFL, or any other profession or situation for that matter as such you ****in  ''sh*t bag''. 

Can you understand that?

Yes, i just referred to Baker Mayfield as a midget. Hes four inches taller than me. I totally understand.

[Jack Straw]

Mike Maccagnan drafted Christian Hackenberg after watching a five minute highlight video on YouTube. Of course he'll draft Allen based on 90 minutes of football.

[Philc1]

12 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

Mike Maccagnan drafted Christian Hackenberg after watching a five minute highlight video on YouTube. Of course he'll draft Allen based on 90 minutes of football.

Hahahahahagahaha 

[Philc1]

The Jake Locker comparison is about as keen as it gets