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It makes the most sense to draft a QB in round one


Alka

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2 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Basically you pay $$$ to increase your odds of success and based on the last 3 years, we are ~90-95% sure that Cousins will be a top 10-15 QB in the league (barring injury) over the next four years...

On average about 50% of 1st round QB's will bust so you have to pick the right one and/or have multiple chances

Rosen or Darnold, Mayfield or Allen, Jackson or Rudolph, Falk or Stidham - crystal ball anyone?

The top QB's in the draft will sign for over $30M for 4 years, and they will endure "rookie mistakes" and a "sophomore slump" in that time so the extra cost for Cousins is basically Wilkerson 

Considering Mac is 0-2 drafting QB's, Bowles seems to prefer more experienced QB's and the Jets have cap to spend - it might make more sense for the Jets to pay the $$$ to increase their odds on a successful QB

The Jets over the last 4 years +Cousins -Wilkerson is a playoff team 2-3x... (no Fitz, no McCown)

it's really tough to spend $100mm in cap space well.  You're going to end up overpaying for a Buster Skrine type.  $30mm for Cousins and still having $70mm would be fine - you're still going to be able to buy everything you want.

I honestly don't think it's a cap thing as much as it is - are you willing to pass on young potential like Mayfield for a 30 year old that hasn't proven the ability to win very much.

I, for one, would prefer the draft route - but wouldn't be upset if they went with Cousins 

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1 minute ago, Fantasy Island said:

get rid of Petty, Hack and do not resign McCown.

 

Draft a qb in the 1st rd, and one in the 2nd rd, then pick up a UDFA after the draft.

Start from scratch the FA old vet bandage does not work

 

The only true QB competition is a forced one with Bowles in the mix.

Alternate plan:

1. Trade a 2019 #2 pick for Alex Smith.

2. Draft Baker Mayfield at #6, and two O-linemen with our 2018 2nd Rounders

3. Cut Petty (he had his chance), retain Hack as the #3 (cause he's cheap and there is no loss to it).

Smith starts 2018/2019, Mayfield takes over in 2020 after two years of pro learning/practice, and Hack gets one last chance to show something before being replaced with another prospect in the 2019 draft (mid-round).

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Alternate plan:

1. Trade a 2019 #2 pick for Alex Smith.

2. Draft Baker Mayfield at #6, and two O-linemen with our 2018 2nd Rounders

3. Cut Petty (he had his chance), retain Hack as the #3 (cause he's cheap and there is no loss to it).

Smith starts 2018/2019, Mayfield takes over in 2020 after two years of pro learning/practice, and Hack gets one last chance to show something before being replaced with another prospect in the 2019 draft (mid-round).

I like Baker Mayfield, maybe Smith just starts one year.  We do need OL bad.  Hack will never get a shot, might as well cut him and replace with UDFA.

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9 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

I like Baker Mayfield, maybe Smith just starts one year.  We do need OL bad.  Hack will never get a shot, might as well cut him and replace with UDFA.

He's still exceptionally young, and no UDFA QB will come within 10% of the potential Hack has, despite how bad he's been (far as we know) to-date.

Cutting Hack is a decision based on emotion, not logic.  With QB #1 and #2 addressed, QB #3 can be Hack at no loss.  Cutting him is a pointless waste, especially for some UDFA QB given the exceptional long-odds there.

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

He's still exceptionally young, and no UDFA QB will come within 10% of the potential Hack has, despite how bad he's been (far as we know) to-date.

Cutting Hack is a decision based on emotion, not logic.  With QB #1 and #2 addressed, QB #3 can be Hack at no loss.  Cutting him is a pointless waste, especially for some UDFA QB given the exceptional long-odds there.

Mac only keeps him because of pride.  Hack has no potential.  He was horrible in college after his freshman year, and we thought we could help him get that back.  Just because he looks like a QB doesn't mean he is one.

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the Jets shouldn't sign Kirk Cousins. He barely could be bothered to give 100% effort right now, before the contract. Don't believe me? Watch the "film" of the week 17 LOSS to the world's worst team the NY Giants.  Or if he's giving effort it's like too cold for his vagina. YEs everyone's injured, Yes it's 2 degrees out but that's his last performance BEFORE A 100 MIL CONTRACT?? No thanks.  

Even if i'm wrong and Cousins is a FQB, the real problem with the PRO Cousins argument is that it assumes he wants to play here. Which is like a Madden video game assumption. 

HE's a guy from Barrington, Illinois who went to Michigan State. HE didn't seem super happy in DC. Given a choice, he'd probably go to Denver. Or literally anywhere but the Acela corridor.  

 

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28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Alternate plan:

1. Trade a 2019 #2 pick for Alex Smith.

 

Trading a #2 round pick for Alex Smith who plays a year or two and maybe makes the playoffs (with a team some considered having the NFL's best roster, they were upset/eliminated in round 1) is to me looney.  I would rather substitute McCown.

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18 minutes ago, Warfish said:

He's still exceptionally young, and no UDFA QB will come within 10% of the potential Hack has, despite how bad he's been (far as we know) to-date.

Cutting Hack is a decision based on emotion, not logic.  With QB #1 and #2 addressed, QB #3 can be Hack at no loss.  Cutting him is a pointless waste, especially for some UDFA QB given the exceptional long-odds there.

I don't know if Hack's contract is guaranteed.  If it is, might as well keep him on the team as at least a number 3.  Somebody has to be #3-I am not buying the argument that you only need 2 QBs.  Hack should be on the Practice Squad though.

But if his contract is not guaranteed, Hack is only worth being on the team if we think he can be a back up next year, or if he has trade value, or if he could even start.  But it would appear to me that Morton's system requires a QB that runs around and can be somewhat accurate while running around.  I am not seeing Hack do that.  Maybe Hack can drop back like Brady.   So if he does not have some tangible benefit, just keeping him around may not be worth it.  Tangible benefit does not need to be much, and the fact that he may not have one is very disappointing.

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38 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Alternate plan:

1. Trade a 2019 #2 pick for Alex Smith.

2. Draft Baker Mayfield at #6, and two O-linemen with our 2018 2nd Rounders

3. Cut Petty (he had his chance), retain Hack as the #3 (cause he's cheap and there is no loss to it).

Smith starts 2018/2019, Mayfield takes over in 2020 after two years of pro learning/practice, and Hack gets one last chance to show something before being replaced with another prospect in the 2019 draft (mid-round).

A second round pick is way too much for a soon-to-be 34-year-old QB who's only under contract for the 2018 season, even if it's a year away. And given that he's only under contract for one year, I'd want the QB drafted at #6 overall starting no later than opening day 2019 - as a QB selected #6 overall (or perhaps higher) should. 

If the Jets could land Smith cheaply, I could get on board. Probably be looking closely at the RBs in the second round, though, too. 

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4 minutes ago, varjet said:

Trading a #2 round pick for Alex Smith who plays a year or two and maybe makes the playoffs (with a team some considered having the NFL's best roster, they were upset/eliminated in round 1) is to me looney.  I would rather substitute McCown.

Tossing McCown in again is pure insanity.  The guy has never been good, this past year included.

Alex Smith is the kind of "good enough" QB we can roll with for however many years it takes to find a better QB. 

McCown was never that guy, ever, and last year didn't change that.

Finding your own Tom Brady ddoesn't mean we have to suck till it happens.  McCown ensures we suck.  Smith makes this roster, today, a postseason contender.  And we can still look for a better QB and give that QB time to sit and learn, while we're not sucking under Smith.

Again, too much emphasis on all or nothing.  McCown + Draft is all (if draft pick works out) or nothing (McCown and draft bust).

Smith + Draft pick is all and all.  We win materially more under Smith, and we develop a QB behind him for the future.

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49 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Alternate plan:

1. Trade a 2019 #2 pick for Alex Smith.

2. Draft Baker Mayfield at #6, and two O-linemen with our 2018 2nd Rounders

3. Cut Petty (he had his chance), retain Hack as the #3 (cause he's cheap and there is no loss to it).

Smith starts 2018/2019, Mayfield takes over in 2020 after two years of pro learning/practice, and Hack gets one last chance to show something before being replaced with another prospect in the 2019 draft (mid-round).

I feel like Chiefs would let Alex Smith choose his destination assuming they get multiple offers, which I think they will. And I can't see him choosing the Jets to do the same thing over again like it was with Mahommes. 

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24 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

I feel like Chiefs would let Alex Smith choose his destination assuming they get multiple offers, which I think they will. And I can't see him choosing the Jets to do the same thing over again like it was with Mahommes. 

I think him in Jacksonville makes that a very dangerous team.

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17 hours ago, Alka said:

The Jets have 100M in cap space, and the best way to blow a lot of it would be to get Kurt Cousins for 30 million dollars per year.  We can get a  QB at #6 or (if we trade up, earlier) and use all that cap money to get free agent pieces that we so desperately need.  At #6, we will have our future QB cheap for at least the next 4 years, instead of using up 100 million on a QB over the same 4 years.  

I hope we use the cap room to grab a cornerback, pass rusher, resign Claiborne and other Jet free agents we want to keep, and use our (2) second round picks to get possibly a running back and a offensive lineman.

Cousins is a nice QB, but in no way will he be worth the money that it would take to sign him to the Jets.  If he demands 25 or 30 million, we would be overpaying him tremendously to get him.

Someone did a nice analysis on the draft forum where he puts a $ against the cap for all the moves.  In that analysis he valued Cousins at $40M against the cap in year one (less in subsequent years) and there was still plenty of money to go around to accomplish everything you mention above and more. Plus we end up with an extra pick since we don't have to use it on a QB. So when you say $30M is too much money, understand that you can sign Cousins and accomplish everything else you mentioned (cornerback, pass rusher, center, OT, etc.) and still have money left over.

So it really comes down to you liking or not liking Cousins and it sounds like you prefer to roll the dice on an unproven rookie who could develop right away, somewhere down the line, or never.  With your approach, since we won't be spending the money on a QB we'll have $30M to spend on who knows what.  Please check out that analysis I thought it was well done.

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17 hours ago, Alka said:

The Jets have 100M in cap space, and the best way to blow a lot of it would be to get Kurt Cousins for 30 million dollars per year.  We can get a  QB at #6 or (if we trade up, earlier) and use all that cap money to get free agent pieces that we so desperately need.  At #6, we will have our future QB cheap for at least the next 4 years, instead of using up 100 million on a QB over the same 4 years.  

I hope we use the cap room to grab a cornerback, pass rusher, resign Claiborne and other Jet free agents we want to keep, and use our (2) second round picks to get possibly a running back and a offensive lineman.

Cousins is a nice QB, but in no way will he be worth the money that it would take to sign him to the Jets.  If he demands 25 or 30 million, we would be overpaying him tremendously to get him.

Above is the topic I was referring to.

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4 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

get rid of Petty, Hack and do not resign McCown.

 

Draft a qb in the 1st rd, and one in the 2nd rd, then pick up a UDFA after the draft.

Start from scratch the FA old vet bandage does not work

 

The only true QB competition is a forced one with Bowles in the mix.

We really need to draft multiple qbs.  Not doing so gives Macc an excuse to keep his busts Petty and Hack and or waste time with a free agent veteran like Keenum or Bridgewater 

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16 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Been preaching this exact plan the entire time. Haven’t seen you here before .. you new? Welcome.

I'm not new but just an observer for the last several years, never really posting.  I have been a Jets fan for the last 49 years.  I was at the 1968 AFC Championship game from the 40 yard line at Shea Stadium.  Joe Willie taking down the bad Oakland Raiders to go the Super Bowl.  

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19 hours ago, Tony MaC said:

People keep saying that, but I'm not actually sure that's true.

He'll play the best players he can- that's it. Maybe that's a young guy, maybe its not. But that's the truth. We can't seriously try to use Petty and Hack in particular as examples of what he'd do with every young QB.

If they don't suck and are better than the other QB's he'll start them.

 

 

 

agreed - the only young QB's Bowles have had are downright awful. It's hard to judge him based on that.  Honestly, he couldn't have put Petty out there on a week to week basis - he is not even an NFL back-up level player.

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18 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

It is simple, NO Draft person believes that this current crop of QBs coming out is going to be NFL ready!!!!

We need to remember that we did this same dance with Mark Sanchez who EVERYONE said was inexperienced and needed time. This is an example of Sanchez' weaknesses....

Weaknesses:Very inexperienced; only threw 487 pass attempts in his career with only one year of starting experience ... Started out hot, but had inconsistent accuracy during the middle of the season ... Unimpressive as a sophomore ... Needs a little more work on reading defenses ... Could put on a few more pounds of muscle ... Major durability concerns ... Will likely need a year with a clipboard before he is ready to start ....Read more: http://walterfootball.com/pro2009msanchez.php#ixzz53ZLRTVRq

But the Jets are always SMARTER then the rest of the NFL Ken O'Brien over Marino, Kyle over Sapp and so on, it is sickening. 

For God's Sake let Jets do the smart thing for a change!!!!

Petty looks like he regressed!!

Why in the world do we believe that these current guys know how to develop a young QB!!!

For what it's worth, Kenny O had a winning record against Marino. Actually, I think he might be the only QB who did. 

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8 hours ago, varjet said:

I think this is a issue worthy of its own thread, but I think the QB drafting/selection issue is directly related to the coaching staff/competence issue.  

It is clear to all of us that Mac does not know how to pick a QB.  Maybe that is not that unusual, and the teams that find and develop successful young QBs involve their GMs and offensive coaches working together with their GMs to select a QB to fit their system.

It should be no surprise that Petty and Hack are not very good.  Petty and Hack was selected with Gailey and Patullo providing input.  The Jets actually traded up for Petty.  I think Hack was a self-help pick by Mac based on his measureables.

The ultimate drafting of a QB should be a decision mostly by the OC and QB coach, with the GM providing analytical and character scouting support.   They have to be convinced that the QB could work their system.  Interesting, my recollection from the 2017 Draft was that O'Brien did not like the Watson pick, but he came up with a plan for him to be successful.

With the way the Jets are set up, I think people are underestimating the likelihood of the Jets getting Cousins or Smith.  I just don't see Bowles/Mac/Morton getting their heads together on a draftable QB that meets all of their requirements.

Rosen will be gone.

Darnold could fit with Morton, but he is likely gone.

I don't see Mac drafting Mayfield at 6.

Allen would not fit with Morton.

6 is too high for the others.  

Personally I think the answer is to ditch the WCO and go with a more vertical system.  But in any event, the Chiefs obviously want some stupid team to give them multiple high draft picks for Alex Smith. I hope that team is not the Jets.

Why not Lamar Jackson?

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20 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

I’d rather draft Falk in the third, and have him learn from Cousins how to play behind our revamped O-Line. 

Although I'm completely against signing Cousins I could see this happening and not the worst alternate. I don't necessarily hate drafting Falk in the 3rd if they don't pick one earlier.  

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11 hours ago, varjet said:

I think this is a issue worthy of its own thread, but I think the QB drafting/selection issue is directly related to the coaching staff/competence issue.  

It is clear to all of us that Mac does not know how to pick a QB.  Maybe that is not that unusual, and the teams that find and develop successful young QBs involve their GMs and offensive coaches working together with their GMs to select a QB to fit their system.

It should be no surprise that Petty and Hack are not very good.  Petty and Hack was selected with Gailey and Patullo providing input.  The Jets actually traded up for Petty.  I think Hack was a self-help pick by Mac based on his measureables.

The ultimate drafting of a QB should be a decision mostly by the OC and QB coach, with the GM providing analytical and character scouting support.   They have to be convinced that the QB could work their system.  Interesting, my recollection from the 2017 Draft was that O'Brien did not like the Watson pick, but he came up with a plan for him to be successful.

With the way the Jets are set up, I think people are underestimating the likelihood of the Jets getting Cousins or Smith.  I just don't see Bowles/Mac/Morton getting their heads together on a draftable QB that meets all of their requirements.

Rosen will be gone.

Darnold could fit with Morton, but he is likely gone.

I don't see Mac drafting Mayfield at 6.

Allen would not fit with Morton.

6 is too high for the others.  

Personally I think the answer is to ditch the WCO and go with a more vertical system.  But in any event, the Chiefs obviously want some stupid team to give them multiple high draft picks for Alex Smith. I hope that team is not the Jets.

This is Great thinking person’s post!!

And in this case, the HC, has not shown the slightest inclination to let some Rookie QB find himself on the field while the Jets lose and he, Bowles, essentially risks his job, all so that the next HC can succeed.  

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10 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

it's really tough to spend $100mm in cap space well.  You're going to end up overpaying for a Buster Skrine type.  $30mm for Cousins and still having $70mm would be fine - you're still going to be able to buy everything you want.

I honestly don't think it's a cap thing as much as it is - are you willing to pass on young potential like Mayfield for a 30 year old that hasn't proven the ability to win very much.

I, for one, would prefer the draft route - but wouldn't be upset if they went with Cousins 

Please let the Jets do both!!!

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On 1/7/2018 at 11:15 PM, bla bla bla said:

$111M in cap is a ton of money to spend. Saying no to Cousins without talking about structure on contract is a mistake. You really shouldn't look at average salary, you should be looking at % of cap taken up by the QB. 12-13% of the cap is where you want to be to field a competitive team around a QB.

If he is indeed Transition Tagged like Redskins fans believe he will be most of his money will need to come in years 1 and 2, so the Skins can't match it, making his cap percentage significantly lower in the final 3-4 years of his contract. Keep in mind there are far fewer teams in play for him if he is Transition Tagged so the competition won't be as fierce. Only teams capable of writing a deal that the Skins can't match are the Bills, Browns, 49ers, and Jets, 49ers have their QB, Browns likely go with Smith and a rookie, so it would leave the Bills and Jets to compete with each other. Bronco's won't have enough cap to make a contract that the Skins can't match. The question you need to ask is will any of these QBs play to the level that Cousins is currently playing at, and will it be within the first 4 years of their contract before you have to pay them more than what Cousins will get this year?

Really like your draft (in the draft board) and logic.  Most of the folks here are relying on pure emotion, you're relying on facts and math. Most folks here don't want to think that deeply, they just want the flavor of the year.  Well done sir!

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15 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Basically you pay $$$ to increase your odds of success and based on the last 3 years, we are ~90-95% sure that Cousins will be a top 10-15 QB in the league (barring injury) over the next four years...

On average about 50% of 1st round QB's will bust so you have to pick the right one and/or have multiple chances

Rosen or Darnold, Mayfield or Allen, Jackson or Rudolph, Falk or Stidham - crystal ball anyone?

The top QB's in the draft will sign for over $30M for 4 years, and they will endure "rookie mistakes" and a "sophomore slump" in that time so the extra cost for Cousins is basically Wilkerson 

Considering Mac is 0-2 drafting QB's, Bowles seems to prefer more experienced QB's and the Jets have cap to spend - it might make more sense for the Jets to pay the $$$ to increase their odds on a successful QB

The Jets over the last 4 years +Cousins -Wilkerson is a playoff team 2-3x... (no Fitz, no McCown)

Another sensible poster, so refreshing to see this as opposed to so many emotion driven ones. 

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So is there any chance the Jets can find a way to move back into the late 1st round to nab Roquan Smith?  The Jets need to move to a traditional 4-3 IMO, and him, and Lee would make fantastic Will, and Sam LB’s in a 4-3 system, roll with Demario Davis for next season, but definitely have serious Eyes for an elite replacement for him down the road fairly quickly, sign Ziggy Ansah, explore bringing back Sheldon Richardson on a team friendly easy out deal, resign Ealy, OR if we get our QB in FA use the 6th pick on Chubb which would instantly transform our D front into a dominant pass rushing force with both Ansah, and Chubb off the edge, and Sheldon, and Leo up the middle, and find a 2 down run stuffer to sub in for Ealy, or Sheldon depending on if the Jets draft Chubb on 1st and 2nd down, on obvious running plays if it’s Ealy kick Sheldon to DE.  Use our other 2nd rounder on a comparable player that got away (Alvin Kamara) last year in the draft with Sonny Michel.  In an ideal world this draft would happen with Bowles being fired, and Pat Shurmer brought on to be HC bringing in Teddy Bridgewater with him while installing the Zimmer D with one of his guys off the roster to come along with him to be the DC.  Pipe Dreams I know.

 

Crazy choke job by Georgia there, gotta give Saban credit to make that QB change at half, that kid will be the starter next season, and don’t be surprised to see the other QB as the feature RB next season kid is built half Marshawn Lynch, and half Mark Ingram.

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13 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

it's really tough to spend $100mm in cap space well.  You're going to end up overpaying for a Buster Skrine type.  $30mm for Cousins and still having $70mm would be fine - you're still going to be able to buy everything you want.

I honestly don't think it's a cap thing as much as it is - are you willing to pass on young potential like Mayfield for a 30 year old that hasn't proven the ability to win very much.

I, for one, would prefer the draft route - but wouldn't be upset if they went with Cousins 

You're right.  There are only a few players in free agency worth having.  With $100M to spend I think it behoves us to take one at the most important position and this year there's really no one better than Cousins.  After that we can draft whatever we want.  If we draft a rookie QB and they pan out, we can trade Cousins in a year and get additional draft picks back.  A QB like Cousins is an insurance policy and by spending the $30M we don't even handcuff ourselves from getting what we need in free agency and we have more flexibility in the draft.

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21 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

it's really tough to spend $100mm in cap space well.  You're going to end up overpaying for a Buster Skrine type.  $30mm for Cousins and still having $70mm would be fine - you're still going to be able to buy everything you want.

I honestly don't think it's a cap thing as much as it is - are you willing to pass on young potential like Mayfield for a 30 year old that hasn't proven the ability to win very much.

I, for one, would prefer the draft route - but wouldn't be upset if they went with Cousins 

Agree FA was designed for teams to overpay, it was a players association idea, not the owners :) 

Personally I would prefer the draft as well (we all want a true Jets franchise QB) but in reference to the thread title, I think we also agree that Cousins could make sense for the Jets - don't really expect this to happen but that was not the question 

IMHO the plan that "makes the most sense" for the Jets is aligned with Warfish, Charlie Brown and others to double down on a FA QB and a first round draft pick and after watching the National Championship last night, Mayfield ranks a little higher in my book too...

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19 minutes ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Agree FA was designed for teams to overpay, it was a players association idea, not the owners :) 

Personally I would prefer the draft as well (we all want a true Jets franchise QB) but in reference to the thread title, I think we also agree that Cousins could make sense for the Jets - don't really expect this to happen but that was not the question 

IMHO the plan that "makes the most sense" for the Jets is aligned with Warfish, Charlie Brown and others to double down on a FA QB and a first round draft pick and after watching the National Championship last night, Mayfield ranks a little higher in my book too...

The problem with this is I think there's going to be a prerequisite coming from Cousins camp that they not take a QB in the first round.  He wants to be the man - honestly having a first round QB behind Cousins would be a disaster.  one bad game, heck one bad pick and the entire fan base and media will be calling to play the kid.  If you're paying $30mm to Cousins he has to be the man.

With that said - I think you could do something like this with a Bortles or Bridgewater or something of that ilk although I don't love the idea of it. 

For me, I just as soon bring back McCown with our first round rookie.  We want the rookie getting the first team reps..we want him to get ready.

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