The Road to the Playoffs

[Barry McCockinner]

First things first. The point of this thread is to document and discuss our outside shot at the playoffs. Their is a very low probability of this actually happening at this point. No ish. If you're here to tell us there's no chance or it's not happening you can eat my entire ass.

1) At this point it seems there is only 1 wildcard spot up for grabs unless the Bills have an epic collapse.
    1a) I actually don't put it past them as they're playing @Dal, vs. Bal, @Pitt, @NE the next 4 weeks. 

2) The Jets must win out which means winning @Baltimore and @Buffalo.

These are the opponents ahead of us for the second wildcard spot right now.

Raiders 6-5
    @KC, vs. Ten, vs Jax, @LAC, @Den
    We need them to lose 2, we have the tie breaker.

Steelers 6-5
    vs. Cle, @Ari, vs Buff, @NYJ, @Bal
    We need them to lose two, one of which is us.

Browns 5-6
    @Pitt, vs. Cin, @Ari, vs Bal, @Cin
    We need them to lose two since they have tie-breaker

Colts 6-5
    vs. Tenn, @TB, @NO, vs. Car, @Jax
    We need them to have 2 losses including an AFC opponent or 3 losses to NFC

Titans 6-5
    @Indy, @Raiders, vs Hou, vs NO, @Hou
    We need them to lose 3

Feel free to add possibilities or correct. Here's the playoff machine - fun to play with.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/wins/results/401128063~1~401128058~1~401128005~2~401127997~2~401128020~2~401128060~2~401127933~1~401127946~2~401127896~1~401127973~2~401127950~1~401127988~1~401127906~2~401128117~1~401127994~2

 

Next week:

Raiders @KC - Root for KC

Cle @Pitt - Root for Pitt, they still play us & Bal

Tenn @Indy - Root for Tenn, they still play @Oak, Hou x2 & NO

Buff @Dal - Root for Dal

If all this happens + Jets win we have the following going into week 14.

Jets 5-7

Oak 6-6

Cle 5-7

Tenn 7-5

Buff 8-4

[kevinc855]

Don’t bet against that epic Bills collapse ending with our week 17 w against them ?

[Jetlife33]

Yeah we need Cleveland to lose to Pitt bad 

[Beerfish]

I see no way at all that we beat Baltimore.  I also think we can lose vs anyone so a team like miami or cincy could beat us.

[Larz]

It’s thanksgiving and the Jets have 1 win in the afc

 

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I see no way at all that we beat Baltimore.  I also think we can lose vs anyone so a team like miami or cincy could beat us.

unless your head is filled with 150 proof vodka infused jello

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Raiders 6-5

    @KC, vs. Ten, vs Jax, @LAC, @Den
    We need them to lose 2, we have the tie breaker.

Steelers 6-5
    vs. Cle, @Ari, vs Buff, @NYJ, @Bal
    We need them to lose two, one of which is us.

Browns 5-6
    @Pitt, vs. Cin, @Ari, vs Bal, @Cin
    We need them to lose two since they have tie-breaker

Colts 6-5
    vs. Tenn, @TB, @NO, vs. Car, @Jax
    We need them to have 2 losses including an AFC opponent or 3 losses to NFC

Titans 6-5
    @Indy, @Raiders, vs Hou, vs NO, @Hou
    We need them to lose 2

Next week:

Raiders @KC - Root for KC

Cle @Pitt - Root for Pitt, they still play us & Bal

Tenn @Indy - Root for Tenn, they still play @Oak, Hou x2 & NO

Buff @Dal - Root for Dallas

Appreciate this. Regardless of how small the chance, it’s always nice to know where we stand relative to others in the hunt. 

[Losmeister]

and i get called out as being a bad, SOJ fan...

 

[Spoot-Face]

[Joe W. Namath]

The only way the jets can get in is if they are the only 9-7 team and everyone else is 8-8 or worse.  

The jets afc conference record is awful.  They will not win any tie breakers.

[Losmeister]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

1.1% shot

[TNJet]

4 minutes ago, Larz said:

It’s thanksgiving and the Jets have 1 win in the afc

 

But it was pure domination.

[Legend Killa7]

I just do not understand this place. One week we are throwing Darnold away because he sucks, and now we are talking playoffs? Holy crap.

[TNJet]

Its too bad Gase took a big fat stinky dump on our playoff chances against Miami and Jacksonville.

[Barry McCockinner]

11 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I see no way at all that we beat Baltimore.  I also think we can lose vs anyone so a team like miami or cincy could beat us.

Baltimore's strength is running the ball. We are the best in the league at stopping the run and have bottled up some big time backs. 

[Larz]

Jets are also behind Jacksonville and the chargers 

[Barry McCockinner]

14 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The only way the jets can get in is if they are the only 9-7 team and everyone else is 8-8 or worse.  

The jets afc conference record is awful.  They will not win any tie breakers.

Not true. The Colts can go 9-7 with losses to the Titans and Jaguars and we're in - at least according to the playoff machine. The Steelers can also be 9-7 provided we beat them.

[afjetsfan]

I was thinking the same thing today:  What would be the chances the Jets could get into the playoffs?  Unfortunately, even if they win out I don't even think 9-7 is a good enough record to make the playoffs.  The Bills will almost definitely get 1 of the wild card spots as they already have 8 wins.  The question is who gets the second spot:  Raiders, Steelers or Colts are all at 6 wins.  One of these teams will most likely get to 10 wins making it impossible for us to get that second WC spot.  Not to mention with all our loses in the AFC, we would not win a tie.  Is it impossible that all three of these teams collapse, sure, but it is more likely one or more of them goes on a winning streak and gets at least 9 wins.  Plus, like mentioned earlier, the chances of us beating Baltimore is slim.  They are a great team.  Doesn't mean we can't beat them, but the chances are not good.  I think we most likely end up with 7 wins, which is a much better record than I thought we'd end up with when we were sitting at 1-7.

I think if we finish strong, regardless of missing the playoffs, we will be in a good spot starting next season.  With a revamped O-line and a few upgrades in some other key spots, we should be competitive next year for a wildcard spot.  I don't see us dethroning the Patriots as long as Brady and Belichick are at the helm and the Bills look like they are the real deal and will be tough to beat going forward.  It's good to see the AFC east becoming somewhat competitive again.  It used to be a guaranteed 6 win situation for the Patriots, I think those days are coming to an end next year. 

[TNJet]

7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Baltimore's strength is running the ball. We are the best in the league at stopping the run and have bottled up some big time backs. 

Baltimore's strength is Lamar Jackson.

[slimjasi]

12 minutes ago, Larz said:

It’s thanksgiving and the Jets have 1 win in the afc

 

Right, but if we miraculously won out, we would have a 6-6 conference record, which would give us a reasonable shot.

The biggest issue we have is still having to win out, it's not tie-breakers. 

Realistically, we probably have something like a 1% chance of winning 8 straight games after starting 1-7. It would be historic. 

[JTJet]

[FlightBoyz]

One game at time boys. Let the chips fall where they may. 

[Rob123]

27 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I see no way at all that we beat Baltimore.  I also think we can lose vs anyone so a team like miami or cincy could beat us.

This is my concern as well- the Bengals don't want to go winless and Miami gave them trouble last  time.  I know 7-9 shows improvement and being competitive but I rather be higher in the draft order.

I think they may surprise in Baltimore but it won't matter much because I don't think they go in 6-7.

[Barry McCockinner]

12 minutes ago, TNJet said:

Baltimore's strength is Lamar Jackson.

Bless Austin will bounty up his ass

[JTJet]

2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Bless Austin will bounty up his ass

If Lamar Jackson is downfield anywhere near Bless Austin, we will be in a lot of trouble. 

[TNJet]

6 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Bless Austin will bounty up his ass

Blessa Fett (Bounty Hunter)

[slimjasi]

Presuming we did the unimaginable and actually won out (again, we are talking a historical run here), we really would benefit from Buffalo collapsing. You want both wildcard spots in play for the field. Buffalo plays @ Dallas, Baltimore, @ Pitt, @ NE, and us. We really want them to lose at least 3 of those games (which is entirely possible). That could lead to a scenario in which we are headed to Buffalo with a chance to knock them out and get in with help. 

If only we didn't have to win in Baltimore . . . 

[Larz]

18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Right, but if we miraculously won out, we would have a 6-6 conference record, which would give us a reasonable shot.

The biggest issue we have is still having to win out, it's not tie-breakers. 

Realistically, we probably have something like a 1% chance of winning 8 straight games after starting 1-7. It would be historic. 

Jets are looking up at the chargers 

dont do this to yourself 

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

First things first. The point of this thread is to document and discuss our outside shot at the playoffs. Their is a very low probability of this actually happening at this point. No ish. If you're here to tell us there's no chance or it's not happening you can eat my entire ass.

1) At this point it seems there is only 1 wildcard spot up for grabs unless the Bills have an epic collapse.
    1a) I actually don't put it pas them as they're playing @Dal, vs. Bal, @Pitt, @NE the next 4 weeks. 

2) The Jets must win out which means winning @Baltimore and @Buffalo.

These are the opponents ahead of us for the second wildcard spot right now.

Raiders 6-5
    @KC, vs. Ten, vs Jax, @LAC, @Den
    We need them to lose 2, we have the tie breaker.

Steelers 6-5
    vs. Cle, @Ari, vs Buff, @NYJ, @Bal
    We need them to lose two, one of which is us.

Browns 5-6
    @Pitt, vs. Cin, @Ari, vs Bal, @Cin
    We need them to lose two since they have tie-breaker

Colts 6-5
    vs. Tenn, @TB, @NO, vs. Car, @Jax
    We need them to have 2 losses including an AFC opponent or 3 losses to NFC

Titans 6-5
    @Indy, @Raiders, vs Hou, vs NO, @Hou
    We need them to lose 3

Feel free to add possibilities or correct. Here's the playoff machine - fun to play with.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/wins/results/401128063~1~401128058~1~401128005~2~401127997~2~401128020~2~401128060~2~401127933~1~401127946~2~401127896~1~401127973~2~401127950~1~401127988~1~401127906~2~401128117~1~401127994~2

 

Next week:

Raiders @KC - Root for KC

Cle @Pitt - Root for Pitt, they still play us & Bal

Tenn @Indy - Root for Tenn, they still play @Oak, Hou x2 & NO

Buff @Dal - Root for Dal

If all this happens + Jets win we have the following going into week 14.

Jets 5-7

Oak 6-6

Cle 5-7

Tenn 7-5

Buff 8-4

You lefWe need to root HARD for Dallas this Thursday.You sort of ignored the Bills but if they lose to Dallas, their schedule is just brutal, and if we win out and Buffalo loses out we make the playoffs ar 9-7 in most scenarios.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, johnnysd said:

You lefWe need to root HARD for Dallas this Thursday.You sort of ignored the Bills but if they lose to Dallas, their schedule is just brutal, and if we win out and Buffalo loses out we make the playoffs ar 9-7 in most scenarios.

I said root for Dallas this week. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Larz said:

Jets are looking up at the chargers 

dont do this to yourself 

No, you are missing what I am saying. 

I have no emotional investment in the playoff fantasy at this point. It would take historic luck. Not happening. 

BUT, the point remains that the biggest hurdle isn't tie-breakers, it's the miraculous winning streak that they would have to go on just to be in a position to discuss tie-breakers. 

They are behind the Chargers because they are 1-6 in conference games. But, if they went on the aforementioned miraculous winning streak, they would be 6-6 in such games. 

The super unlikely part isn't getting into the playoffs with a 6-6 conference record (For example, in 2009, they were 7-5 in conference games), it's winning 8 straight games to even get to that point. 

[Spoot-Face]

If we can somehow knock the Bills out of playoff contention, I'll be happy.

But playoffs? I'm not doing that to myself.

[NYJ1]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

First things first. The point of this thread is to document and discuss our outside shot at the playoffs. Their is a very low probability of this actually happening at this point. No ish. If you're here to tell us there's no chance or it's not happening you can eat my entire ass.

1) At this point it seems there is only 1 wildcard spot up for grabs unless the Bills have an epic collapse.
    1a) I actually don't put it pas them as they're playing @Dal, vs. Bal, @Pitt, @NE the next 4 weeks. 

2) The Jets must win out which means winning @Baltimore and @Buffalo.

These are the opponents ahead of us for the second wildcard spot right now.

Raiders 6-5
    @KC, vs. Ten, vs Jax, @LAC, @Den
    We need them to lose 2, we have the tie breaker.

Steelers 6-5
    vs. Cle, @Ari, vs Buff, @NYJ, @Bal
    We need them to lose two, one of which is us.

Browns 5-6
    @Pitt, vs. Cin, @Ari, vs Bal, @Cin
    We need them to lose two since they have tie-breaker

Colts 6-5
    vs. Tenn, @TB, @NO, vs. Car, @Jax
    We need them to have 2 losses including an AFC opponent or 3 losses to NFC

Titans 6-5
    @Indy, @Raiders, vs Hou, vs NO, @Hou
    We need them to lose 3

Feel free to add possibilities or correct. Here's the playoff machine - fun to play with.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/wins/results/401128063~1~401128058~1~401128005~2~401127997~2~401128020~2~401128060~2~401127933~1~401127946~2~401127896~1~401127973~2~401127950~1~401127988~1~401127906~2~401128117~1~401127994~2

 

Next week:

Raiders @KC - Root for KC

Cle @Pitt - Root for Pitt, they still play us & Bal

Tenn @Indy - Root for Tenn, they still play @Oak, Hou x2 & NO

Buff @Dal - Root for Dal

If all this happens + Jets win we have the following going into week 14.

Jets 5-7

Oak 6-6

Cle 5-7

Tenn 7-5

Buff 8-4

I'm thinking Buffalo will crash? I've never been impressed by their current team and their QB really sucks. Now the Bills face FOUR playoff teams from last season with THREE of those games away. Oh, and don't forget they face the Jets to close out the season. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Bills are 8-7 when they faus.

[Jet Fan RI]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

1.1% shot

Better than zero.

[Jetsbb]

Its more likely the Bills lose out than all the other scenarios happening.