Don't expect the Jets to draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd round

[Jetsfan80]

Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.  

There are at least 2 major factors working against the possibility of the Jets taking a RB that high.  Not only in this draft class, but in ANY draft class.

1) Joe Douglas

The Ravens and Eagles, Douglas' prior organizations, were never known for taking RB's high until recently, when the 2 franchise took Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins, respectively, with 2nd round picks.  While he was in Philadelphia, the Eagles took Donnell Pumphrey in the 4th round of the '17 draft.  Meanwhile, the Ozzie Newsome philosophy in Baltimore was to build up the trenches and look for RB's at bargain prices in the draft and free agency.  Douglas' philosophy is similar, and the La'Mical Perine pick last draft continued to demonstrate it.  

2) Kyle Shanahan and the one-cut RB

The last time the 49ers used a high pick on a RB was Carlos Hyde, a 2nd rounder in 2014.  That was 3 years prior to Shanahan's hiring in San Francisco.  Under his leadership, the 49ers have drafted exactly one RB:  Joe Williams, with the 121st overall pick (4th round) in 2017.  Jeff Wilson was a 2018 UDFA.  The other investments at RB all been veteran acquisitions, including Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

The 49ers system under Shanahan has always preferred the use of one-cut RB's, and that system has arrived in NY.  The biggest advantage of the system is is does not require heavy investments at RB to work.  The plus side of this is that RB's who disappointed under prior systems might find success here; Perine being a potential beneficiary who is already on the roster, along with a promising talent in Ty Johnson.  

With the Jets becoming 49ers East, don't expect a high pick on a RB any time soon.  

[Icer]

I've always thought don't draft a RB in Round 1 unless you have a stacked roster

In the Shanny one-cut system it makes less sense than ever, but do invest heavily in OL

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Icer said:

Don't draft a RB in Round 1 unless you have a stacked roster

And even then, maybe re-consider it.  At the very least, try to do so in that pick 30-32 range.  The advantage being you're getting a cheap 5th year option as an extra year to run the back into the ground.  

[rangerous]

Shanahan s system has a knack for making jag rbs into stars.  There’s no need to get a top flight rb just one that knows how to hit the hole and go.

[JetFreak89]

1 minute ago, rangerous said:

Shanahan s system has a knack for making jag rbs into stars.  There’s no need to get a top flight rb just one that knows how to hit the hole and go.

We may already have one of those in Ty Johnson. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, JetFreak89 said:

We may already have one of those in Ty Johnson. 

And don't sleep too much on Perine.  

Give me Jeff Wilson for a 6th round pick and let's roll.  @Paradis

[Patriot Killa]

luckily this class has some other decent options at RB. I’d like either of the Tar Heel duo from last season. Michael Carter & Javonte Williams were fun to watch and both of them do a bit of everything. I think it’s also totally plausible that Carter or Williams will emerge as the best RB from this class. 

[Marshmello]

4 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

We may already have one of those in Ty Johnson. 

Agreed. I know this was against a poor Raiders defense but he showed pretty good burst and vision that day.

 

 

[Untouchable]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t draft a RB at all.

I fully expect Douglas to sign a cheap, young vet in FA like Jamaal Williams or Marlon Mack to pair with Johnson and Perine.

[slats]

I don’t expect one and don’t want one that high, either. Taking a RB high is a luxury pick, and the Jets aren’t in a position to afford luxuries. 

[rex-n-effect]

How many running backs have been drafted in the first round by any team in the past decade? Less than ten? 

 

Why is this even a point of discussion?

[Jets0712]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t draft a RB at all.
I fully expect Douglas to sign a cheap, young vet in FA like Jamaal Williams or Marlon Mack to pair with Johnson and Perine.

What about a Josh Adams split with Ty Johnson??


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[Jets1958]

But Najee.

[Mike135]

Didn't we bring Leon Washington back?

No need for a RB now.

He's probably younger than Gore.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

How many running backs have been drafted in the first round by any team in the past decade? Less than ten? 

 

Why is this even a point of discussion?

See below:

 

2 minutes ago, Jets1958 said:

But Najee.

 

And as I noted in the thread subject (don't expect a RB in the 1st OR 2nd round), even if Etienne or Harris fell to the 2nd round, don't expect Douglas to swoop in and pick either.  I think that's relevant considering we own pick # 34.

[New York Mick]

Gainwell in the 3rd would work for me. 

[undertow]

I normally agree with not drafting RBs in the first few rounds but this offense is so limited in playmakers that they need to add guys who are difference makers asap to support whatever young QB we are starting.  Signing and drafting Curtis Samuels, Marlon Mack, and some kid from Buffalo isn't going to cut it.  But you are right we will probably draft lineman and cornerbacks.

[Paradis]

44 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.  

There are at least 2 major factors working against the possibility of the Jets taking a RB that high.  Not only in this draft class, but in ANY draft class.

1) Joe Douglas

The Ravens and Eagles, Douglas' prior organizations, were never known for taking RB's high until recently, when the 2 franchise took Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins, respectively, with 2nd round picks.  While he was in Philadelphia, the Eagles took Donnell Pumphrey in the 4th round of the '17 draft.  Meanwhile, the Ozzie Newsome philosophy in Baltimore was to build up the trenches and look for RB's at bargain prices in the draft and free agency.  Douglas' philosophy is similar, and the La'Mical Perine pick last draft continued to demonstrate it.  

2) Kyle Shanahan and the one-cut RB

The last time the 49ers used a high pick on a RB was Carlos Hyde, a 2nd rounder in 2014.  That was 3 years prior to Shanahan's hiring in San Francisco.  Under his leadership, the 49ers have drafted exactly one RB:  Joe Williams, with the 121st overall pick (4th round) in 2017.  Jeff Wilson was a 2018 UDFA.  The other investments at RB all been veteran acquisitions, including Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

The 49ers system under Shanahan has always preferred the use of one-cut RB's, and that system has arrived in NY.  The biggest advantage of the system is is does not require heavy investments at RB to work.  The plus side of this is that RB's who disappointed under prior systems might find success here; Perine being a potential beneficiary who is already on the roster, along with a promising talent in Ty Johnson.  

With the Jets becoming 49ers East, don't expect a high pick on a RB any time soon.  

The best prop up from Shanny system is making guys like Mike Anderson and Ontario Smith 1000 yard backs. You're dreaming if you think we're spending a pick in the first 2 rounds on a RB given the state of our roster. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, undertow said:

I normally agree with not drafting RBs in the first few rounds but this offense is so limited in playmakers that they need to add guys who are difference makers asap to support whatever young QB we are starting.  Signing and drafting Curtis Samuels, Marlon Mack, and some kid from Buffalo isn't going to cut it.  But you are right we will probably draft lineman and cornerbacks.

Just because the Jets are unlikely to draft a RB early doesn't mean they'll neglect the offense.  OL and WR will be priorities.  And perhaps to a lesser extent, TE as well.

[Paradis]

11 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

Why is this even a point of discussion?

Unless you've only been stargazing on this site for the last 2 months, then you'd know that a large number of JN members keep talking about Harris and Etienne with one of our first 3 picks.

[undertow]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Just because the Jets are unlikely to draft a RB early doesn't mean they'll neglect the offense.  OL and WR will be priorities.  And perhaps to a lesser extent, TE as well.

Hopefully.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, undertow said:

Hopefully.

Definitely.  If you trust anything @football guy and @Mogglez bring to the table, some of the top free agent priorities are (in some order) Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and C Corey Linsley.  If they're seeking high-end FA's at WR and OL, they'll also be more than willing to invest heavy draft capital in those spots as well.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

I don't know. 

I'm all for drafting a rb in rd 1. If not rd 1 we better take one in rd 2. This team needs playmakers. And the rb should get 20-30 touches a game. So why not get a stud. I'm not a fan of the rb by committee.  I'd rather have 1 really good back with a change of pace guy than 2 average backs. 

But I do understand why people don't want a 1st rd RB. You can find good value in rds 3-5. For example...

Alvin kamara rd 3, pick 67

Kareem hunt rd 3, pick 86

James Connor rd 3, pick 105

Aaron Jones rd 5 pick 182

David Montgomery rd 3 pick 73

Kenyon drake rd 3 pick 73

 

But all the best rbs are taken in rd 1 or 2. 

 

Saquon barkely rd 1, pick 2

Ezekiel Elliot rd 1, pick 4

Christian McCaffrey rd 1, pick 8

Josh Jacob's rd1, pick 24

Edward's Helaire rd 1 pick 32

Johnathon Taylor rd 2, pick 41

Dalvin cook rd 2, pick 41

Nick chubb rd 2, pick 35

Derrick Henry rd 2, pick 45

Joe Mixon rd 2, pick 48

Melvin Gordon rd 1 pick 15

Miles sanders rd 2 pick 53

 

[rex-n-effect]

8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Unless you've only been stargazing on this site for the last 2 months, then you'd know that a large number of JN members keep talking about Harris and Etienne with one of our first 3 picks.

Fans wanting players to be drafted isn't the same as the front office drafting them. My question was directed to why people would think any front office in the league is seriously considering picking an RB in the first round in this draft.

[Fantasy Island]

57 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.  

There are at least 2 major factors working against the possibility of the Jets taking a RB that high.  Not only in this draft class, but in ANY draft class.

1) Joe Douglas

The Ravens and Eagles, Douglas' prior organizations, were never known for taking RB's high until recently, when the 2 franchise took Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins, respectively, with 2nd round picks.  While he was in Philadelphia, the Eagles took Donnell Pumphrey in the 4th round of the '17 draft.  Meanwhile, the Ozzie Newsome philosophy in Baltimore was to build up the trenches and look for RB's at bargain prices in the draft and free agency.  Douglas' philosophy is similar, and the La'Mical Perine pick last draft continued to demonstrate it.  

2) Kyle Shanahan and the one-cut RB

The last time the 49ers used a high pick on a RB was Carlos Hyde, a 2nd rounder in 2014.  That was 3 years prior to Shanahan's hiring in San Francisco.  Under his leadership, the 49ers have drafted exactly one RB:  Joe Williams, with the 121st overall pick (4th round) in 2017.  Jeff Wilson was a 2018 UDFA.  The other investments at RB all been veteran acquisitions, including Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

The 49ers system under Shanahan has always preferred the use of one-cut RB's, and that system has arrived in NY.  The biggest advantage of the system is is does not require heavy investments at RB to work.  The plus side of this is that RB's who disappointed under prior systems might find success here; Perine being a potential beneficiary who is already on the roster, along with a promising talent in Ty Johnson.  

With the Jets becoming 49ers East, don't expect a high pick on a RB any time soon.  

Najee coming here along with Fields.  WR and OL next.  We can't score.  I hope the FO sees that.  

[The Crusher]

Oooooooo, @joewilly12 gonna be pissed!

[undertow]

3 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

Fans wanting players to be drafted isn't the same as the front office drafting them. My question was directed to why people would think any front office in the league is seriously considering picking an RB in the first round in this draft.

Pretty sure the title of the thread says round 1 or round 2.  So if no front office in the league is drafting RBs in the first round these players will be available at 34.

[Paradis]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Definitely.  If you trust anything @football guy and @Mogglez bring to the table, some of the top free agent priorities are (in some order) Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and C Corey Linsley.  If they're seeking high-end FA's at WR and OL, they'll also be more than willing to invest heavy draft capital in those spots as well.

 It almost feels alien to know that we'll continue to prioritize WR and Oline after making two token picks last year

 

[ElBarrioJets]

I think RB is in better shape than most spots on this roster. But it's all depth. Ty Johnson is a solid 3rd round back. Adams/Perine are backups. 

They DO need another starting level guy in there. I love @Untouchable's suggestion of Jamaal Williams or another vet to add to the stable, but if Javonte Williams is sitting there in the 3rd...just take him. 

 

[Paradis]

4 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I don't know. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Fantasy Island said:

 

Najee coming here along with Fields.  WR and OL next.  We can't score.  I hope the FO sees that.  

Ok let me trying and explain this in the simplest of ways.

We have a wasteland roster.

The biggest benefit to Shanny/LaFleur's system is making average RBs more productive...

Why on earth would we invest crucial capital at the ONE AREA that we can squeak by in right now. That's an awful idea and piss poor management in any industry.

[Jackie Treehorn]

Well I would like some sort of guarantee they don’t draft safeties high. Still in shock after the Adams/Maye tandem. 

[Jetsfan80]

19 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I don't know. 

I'm all for drafting a rb in rd 1. If not rd 1 we better take one in rd 2. This team needs playmakers. And the rb should get 20-30 touches a game. So why not get a stud. I'm not a fan of the rb by committee.  I'd rather have 1 really good back with a change of pace guy than 2 average backs. 

But I do understand why people don't want a 1st rd RB. You can find good value in rds 3-5. For example...

It's not a matter of want.  I can see the merits of drafting a RB early.  The problem is, you'd better get a guaranteed hit if you do so, or else its a poor use of resources.  After all, RB's tend to only give you about 5 years of value in this league before they either fall off a cliff OR you have to pay them more than they're worth.  

But again, its not about what we want to see happen.  It just isn't likely going to happen given the philosophies of Douglas, the new coaching staff, and the system they like to operate.  The model Shanahan operates in SF has gone back a long time, and has never, ever been one where you're likely to see high draft picks used at RB.  

The offense does indeed need a few more playmakers, which Douglas does like.  But WR and TE is where you'll see significant resources spent, not at RB.  

[Paradis]

54 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And don't sleep too much on Perine.  

Give me Jeff Wilson for a 6th round pick and let's roll.  @Paradis

I wish my friend, but I think SF resigning him beyond just his RFA status pretty much ended that one. 

[Jetsfan80]

21 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 It almost feels alien to know that we'll continue to prioritize WR and Oline after making two token picks last year

 

I wouldn't call a 1st and 2nd "token", but I get what you're saying.  

[Paradis]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I wouldn't call a 1st and 2nd "token", but I get what you're saying.  

yea maybe obligatory is the better word