Zach’s “breakout” game

[Jets Voice of Reason]

38 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Breakout is a stretch but hands down by far the best he's looked at any point this entire season was in the first half of this game.  Night and day difference from everything we've seen since week 1.  He was poised, calm, under control.  His footwork was flawless, he was making great reads and being the most decisive I've seen him by far this season.   His ball placement leaves a lot be desired but baby steps, he was by far the best he's looked to date.

That said, the tale of two halves was drastic.  Right back to sloppy footwork, bad mechanics, bailing on pockets and fluttering balls.  Got to get consistent but at least we saw a half of encouraging Football.  Huge change from the norm. 

Agreed here. The most noticeable thing was that he was getting the ball out way quicker and actually made quick decisions when the underneath routes were open. It is encouraging that Saleh commented about the footwork after the game which gives me some hope that they are making it a point of emphasis with him.

He still had a handful of negative plays that were very reminiscent of the issues that has plagued him, especially in the second half. Off the top of my head, the pick was a late throw in the middle which he not only sailed, but there was a man open underneath that he passed on. Plus he didn't step into that throw, it was all arm again. A bunch of the "drops" were also the same problem where he's throwing high with heat. Moore and Davis had completions that were poorly placed but they caught anyways.

Progress though, hopefully he can get more consistent there.

[Gen X Jet]

Give the kid a true #1 to pair with Moore and let's see how he does.  Stone Hands Corey Davis is probably the worst thing for a rookie QB.  A confidence killer.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, BallinPB said:

I'm going by what's available to the common person.  Other than QBR there's no other stat that tells a more full story of how well a QB played that game.  QBR is a stat that's not understood by many and even myself to the full extent but when you look week in and out at the QBs that perform well in this and watch how they perform during certain game situations I believe it to be the best barometer.  

We can talk about the eye test but that is subjective to the person.  My eye test shows me Zach was inconsistent and played average yesterday while others here are saying it was "breakout".   

There is always a metric that proves whatever point a fan is trying to make. This is why you will never see a defender of a faltering QB agree up front to a metric and # that will constitute "success" going forward. Much better to see what fits after the fact and blast the rest as biased/"trash" (PFF) or unreliable (take your pick).

[Larz]

The ball came out faster, but the throws were consistently high. Ball placement was below average for an NFL QB. 

He’s still too in love with laser rocket balls 

[kevinc855]

Breakout, a stretch, especially when your team loses by 15. 

However, he looked much sharper and crisp by all accounts. 

Well done kid, Keep stacking now. 

[sec101row23]

Better, but not a breakout.  Ball placement still needs work.  One of the most concerning things for me is his seemingly soft mental makeup and demeanor, just seems meek.   I watched Burrow and Herbert go at it yesterday and those guys are alphas, Burrow played through a dislocated finger on his throwing hand, Herbert makes throws with guys in his face and getting hit.   Those guys are grown men, Zach looks the little brother who is playing against his older brother and all his friends.  

[BallinPB]

Just now, jgb said:

There is always a metric that proves whatever point a fan is trying to make. This is why you will never see a defender of a faltering QB agree up front to a metric and # that will constitute "success" going forward. Much better to see what fits after the fact and blast the rest as biased/"trash" (PFF) or unreliable (take your pick).

Well at least there is a formula available for how they measure QBR whether it's understood or not.  I still don't understand how the hell PFF comes with with their ratings.  

[Peace Frog]

Good game.  I think had he hit that first TD throw to Moore (although coming right back and throwing the TD on the next throw was nice) and not sailed the INT I'd feel even better.

He hit more layups but his ball placment on a few throws made it tougher on the receivers than they needed to be.  He cleans that up and we'll see more progress--which is all I'm looking for right now.  

 

[T0mShane]

38 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

With one true receiving threat who is also a rookie.  Journeyman RB's because his true RB who is also a rookie is injured.  Luckily this OL has really stepped up over the course of the year or this season would truly be a disaster because he would definitely suffer another injury before the year is out.

None of this was a problem for Flacco, White, or Johnson.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, BallinPB said:

Well at least there is a formula available for how they measure QBR whether it's understood or not.  I still don't understand how the hell PFF comes with with their ratings.  

Basically the same way most of us do... the ol' eyeballs. PFF's selling point is that since they do it for every player, they have a complete dataset which renders the subjective more objective, at least comparatively.

[More Cowbell]

49 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

lol - I wouldn't call it a "breakout" game but definitely improvement and something to build on.

A breakout game IMO would be something like 300+ yards passing, 65+% completions, 3+ TD's, max 1 INT that results in a win in a competitive game.

Thanks. I was starting to think getting blown out by the Eagles  was a good thing.

[Barry McCockinner]

32 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

People slammed the Pats for taking "game manager" Jones.  And he's good.  Seems like we're looking for Wilson to show similar skills- quick reads, get the ball out,  be accurate,  etc.

I mean, quick reads, get the ball out & be accurate are basically minimum requirements for a starting NFL QB, no?

[slimjasi]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

Thanks. I was starting to think getting blown out by the Eagles  was a good thing.

I don't think the Jets giving up 33 points to the Eagles had very much to do with Zach Wilson, or any offensive player, for that matter

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

None of this was a problem for Flacco, White, or Johnson.

We don't have a weaponz problem, we have a bullets problem.

[Warfish]

"Adjusted Completion Percentage". 

i.e. take every pass near a receiver or that hit any part of a receiver and presume it should have been caught, ignoring the role of the pass itself in the drop.

The question people should be asking is why has every receiver on the Jets suddenly become unable to catch when Zach is playing QB.

I would argue that Zach is both:

• Inaccurate i.e. does not hit his receivers cleanly or in stride, but is often throwing behind them, over their heads, short, etc.
• Lacks touch.  i.e. Is often unable to throw passes at appropriate velocities for the situation i.e. he often throws too hard or way too soft.  Hard bounces off players expecting lighter touch passes, soft comes up short or behind.  

If folks want to think the Eagles game is a "breakout" because of his 'adjusted completion percentage', as opposed to actual completion percentage, have fun.  Personally, I feel like we're in the same place we were with sub-60% Sam Darnold, where some here at JN liked to think he had "elite accuracy", while ignoring he could barely scratch a bottom-of-NFL 60% rate of actual completions.  

Zach is a 58% passer, 32nd in the NFL, worse even than Darnold was as a rookie. 

And no, watching the specific drops, they are not all on the RB's and WR's just sucking as pass catchers.  I think it's telling that the other Jets QB's, playing with the same receivers, have compl. %'s of 66.7, 64.4 and 64.3.

[More Cowbell]

38 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

He definitely seems to press when he knows he needs a have a big drive or make a key play.  I think he's the definition of "gripping the bat too tight" in those situations and it's why he suddenly losses all control of his accuracy and looks to leave the pocket too early in effort to "make a play".  

The bottom line is, he's way to raw to overcome the deficiencies of this roster.  The Jets need damn near perfection out of their offense to be competitive and he's just far far far from that point right now but again, silver linings, he looked like a different player in the first half. 

I think thiS is a very fair assessment of Zach's game. I know he is a rookie but he has to just go out and make plays. They don't  have to be splash plays, just complete your passes. 

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

None of this was a problem for Flacco, White, or Johnson.

What does this mean? 

The Jets were 1-4 in games in which White, Flacco, or Johnson played a significant portion of the game. 

In those games the Jets scored: 

13 points vs. Patriots  - loss (worst loss of the season)

34 points vs. Bengals - win (best win of the season?)

30 points vs. Colts (but were down 42-7 before Josh Johnson came in for some extended mop up duty) - loss

17 points vs. Bills (blowout loss - probably the second worst loss of the season)

17 points vs. the Dolphins (loss)

This narrative that the Jets offense was rolling without Wilson is so overblown 

 

[JetFreak89]

It was a nice improvement game. If he can keep this as his floor for the rest of the year and sprinkle in some games with even better stats, I think he will be well on his way for a nice year next year and will calm the nerves of many Jets fans. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

His accuracy is very bad, and he came absolutely unspooled in the second half once the Eagles defense woke up, but this was definitely progress.

Unspooled?  Because they went 3 and out.  With Davis dropping a nicely thrown pass that would have given them a first down.  Then not touching the ball again.  

[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

"Adjusted Completion Percentage". 

i.e. take every pass near a receiver or that hit any part of a receiver and presume it should have been caught, ignoring the role of the pass itself in the drop.

The question people should be asking is why has every receiver on the Jets suddenly become unable to catch when Zach is playing QB.

I would argue that Zach is both:

• Inaccurate i.e. does not hit his receivers cleanly or in stride, but is often throwing behind them, over their heads, short, etc.
• Lacks touch.  i.e. Is often unable to throw passes at appropriate velocities for the situation i.e. he often throws too hard or way too soft.  Hard bounces off players expecting lighter touch passes, soft comes up short or behind.  

If folks want to think the Eagles game is a "breakout" because of his 'adjusted completion percentage', as opposed to actual completion percentage, have fun.  Personally, I feel like we're in the same place we were with sub-60% Sam Darnold, where some here at JN liked to think he had "elite accuracy", while ignoring he could barely scratch a bottom-of-NFL 60% rate of actual completions.  

Zach is a 58% passer, 32nd in the NFL, worse even than Darnold was as a rookie. 

And no, watching the specific drops, they are not all on the RB's and WR's just sucking as pass catchers.  I think it's telling that the other Jets QB's, playing with the same receivers, have compl. %'s of 66.7, 64.4 and 64.3.

Eh, in general, sure. But yesterday, there were a number of bad drops. 

Coleman let the ball hit his facemask on a drive starter that killed the one drive we had in the 3rd quarter (drive killer)

Moore had a huge drop down the field on what should have been a 20 yard completion in the 4th quarter (another drive killer)

Davis had a terrible drop on the sideline that hit him in the hands (Wilson got the first down later in the same series)

[More Cowbell]

12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don't think the Jets giving up 33 points to the Eagles had very much to do with Zach Wilson, or any offensive player, for that matter

Can you tell me how many points the Jets scored in the second half?

[Copernicus]

58 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

lol - I wouldn't call it a "breakout" game but definitely improvement and something to build on.

A breakout game IMO would be something like 300+ yards passing, 65+% completions, 3+ TD's, max 1 INT that results in a win in a competitive game.

He was on his way. Our kicker missing 2 extra points resulting in Zach (and the offense) being forced to score TDs and 2 pt conversions on every possession is just an heightened responsibility and stress that a rookie QB shouldnt have to go through. Interesting how he looked great in the first half when it was a game and as the avalanche of failure unraveled in front of his (and our) eyes with the defense and kicker it got worse. How can any QB have success with one possession in the 3d quarter alone?

[Darnold's Forehead]

This was not a “break-out” performance.  This was a “did not completely implode” performance.  Zach wasn’t forcing throws, was actually throwing to open receivers (missed a few however) and only had one turnover.

However he was pretty darn inaccurate. I kinda feel bad for our wrs (except Davis **** him).  Every completion was difficult, requiring the wr to turn back or stretch forward for the ball.  Moore had a couple “drops”, but 2 of them were off his finger tips and the third one (the one Wilson just yolo’d to him downfield) Slater got his hand inside and knocked it out.

Also his pocket presence is not good.  He rarely steps up into the pocket to make a throw and bails way too early.  He did a 30 yard drop back to avoid pressure from the left and got railed from the right for a sack.  But he’s a rookie so I’ll give him a pass on that.

Overall Zach did not fail today, but this was not elite level QB play.

[xJayce]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

lol - I wouldn't call it a "breakout" game but definitely improvement and something to build on.

A breakout game IMO would be something like 300+ yards passing, 65+% completions, 3+ TD's, max 1 INT that results in a win in a competitive game.

With the defence going the way it is at the moment, I don't believe that wins should be of the qualification for a break out game. The kid's going to have a hard time outscoring a team that puts up 30-40 pts, especially when we can't hit a point after...

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Moore had a huge drop down the field on what should have been a 20 yard completion in the 4th quarter (another drive killer)

I presume you don't mean the ball nearish to the end-zone that Moore had to seriously elevate to have a shot at, and that the Eagles DB had his hand in between Moore's hands and broke up?

It's times like this I REALLY wish we had a YouTube of the whole game, and we could support our claims with timestamps in that video. 

Makes it much easier to discuss a play if we can see it again.

[slimjasi]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

Can you tell me how many points the Jets scored in the second half?

The Jets had the ball once in the third quarter and had the ball for 1 out of the first 16 minutes of the second half. The Eagles went on an 8 plus minute drive and then a 6 plus minute drive in their first two possessions of the second half. 

If your take after watching yesterday's game is that the offense was the problem,  then you either have an agenda or are just clueless. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I presume you don't mean the ball nearish to the end-zone that Moore had to seriously elevate to have a shot at, and that the Eagles DB had his hand in between Moore's hands and broke up?

It's times like this I REALLY wish we had a YouTube of the whole game, and we could support our claims with timestamps in that video. 

Makes it much easier to discuss a play if we can see it again.

No, middle of the 4th quarter. The ball hit Moore in the hands and he dropped it. The Jets ended up not scoring. 

[Barry McCockinner]

3 minutes ago, xJayce said:

With the defence going the way it is at the moment, I don't believe that wins should be of the qualification for a break out game. The kid's going to have a hard time outscoring a team that puts up 30-40 pts, especially when we can't hit a point after...

It's a team sport and I think too much emphasis is put on the QB winning and losing but there is merit to seeing the QB play well in "game on the line" situations. I can get on board with a shoot out where the defense just loses the game at the end still being considered a "break out" game but not one where he has good stats in garbage time. Big difference.

[More Cowbell]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The Jets had the ball once in the third quarter and had the ball for 1 out of the first 16 minutes of the second half. The Eagles went on an 8 plus minute drive and then a 6 plus minute drive in their first two possessions of the second half. 

If your take after watching yesterday's game is that the offense was the problem,  then you either have an agenda or are just clueless. 

You're  right. Zach was great in the second half. If I recall correctly, after the other team scores, they give the other team a chance to keep up. 

[Darnold's Forehead]

19 minutes ago, jgb said:

We don't have a weaponz problem, we have a bullets problem.

I don’t think you get it.  (Rewind 2 years:  “How can you possibly evaluate a QB with the lack of talent around him?”)

 

MOAR WEAPONZ

[T0mShane]

12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Unspooled?  Because they went 3 and out.  With Davis dropping a nicely thrown pass that would have given them a first down.  Then not touching the ball again.  

He was 11 for 24 with an INT in the second half

[tfine]

He dropped three passes. One should’ve been a TD.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[slimjasi]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

You're  right. Zach was great in the second half. 

If only this post addressed what I actually wrote

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

He was 11 for 24 with an INT in the second half

Playing from way behind in the 4th Q?  

[More Cowbell]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

If only this post addressed what I actually wrote

What do you want me to say. Zach had a chance to score after every time the Eagles did. I know the D is horrible but that doesn't  mean when they get the ball back they need to freaking punt on every possession