Putting the puzzle together

[Phillyjet]

Incorporating some new tidbits from across the offseason into what may be the direction in the draft.  These include:

1) Malik Willis rising quickly; check out Thor Nystrom’s review of him online… calls him generational, and expects to see the Lions take him at 2.  New Orleans trading for an extra first in this year’s draft makes you think that a run on QBs is likely to happen and there will be a trade-up.  Quite possible that 2-3 QBs now go in the top 10, if Willis goes at 2.  Corral and Picket are in play.  Corral is rising.  

2) Saleh on record saying the top of the edge class is lacking in generational talent like a Garrett or Von Miller, but is very deep.  At 10 or in the teens, and into the second round even, there will be prospects that grade similarly to some of the guys in the top 10.  They are not separating.  KVT for all the off the field stuff is not a bender and his speed will be neutralized somewhat in the pros… that narrows the gap, apart from his off the field issues.

3) The OT’s at the top are potentially the best players in the draft.  And make no mistake, our depth at tackle is woeful.  Bechton now a huge question mark, and Fant pushing 30, with a big contract on the horizon.  The Jets pursuit of Ryan Jensen makes me believe center is an area they’d like to upgrade.  Frustrating how much the o-line remains a need.  The uncertainty around Bechton is a big deal, but even if he was rock solid, RT/swing tackle, and center are now substantial needs. Keep in mind McGovern was injured late in the season; something to watch.  

4) We were willing to spend our 2nds on a WR, which signals our desire to use the firsts elsewhere.  This may still happen, but it shows that the backup may be to see who falls to the second round like last year, given the lack of elite generational players at the top.

5) Both Joe and Saleh are on record talking about the top 5 as not picking for need, you pick for generational.  You may miss, but apart from the QB, that’s what you do. That puts Ahmad Gardner in play, despite Saleh not necessarily needing the top CB in his system.  Gardner generates pressure by taking half the field away, which allows the Jets to rush more players on throwing downs.  Don’t underestimate that, even in Saleh’s system.  

As I see it now, Hutchinson is a lock for the top 3.  The key is whether two OTs go, an OT and Willis go, or an OT and an EDGE go.  In all scenarios but the first one, one of Evan Neal vs. Ikem Ekwonu falls.  In that event I am now leaning OT.  If both OTs go, then it’s Sauce vs. trade down for one of the QB teams who want Willis. There are now at least 5-6 teams that may be in on QBs, including Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Washington, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh.  Carolina works best, as we would still get a top tackle or Gardner, depending on who the GIANTS take.  Seattle trading up from 9 looks good, if they include DK in that trade.  We could return a 2nd or 3rd round pick there if need be, which makes it a bit harder to compare to the Jamal Adam’s fiasco for Schneider, as they could then get their WR in round 2.  New Orleans trading 16 and 19 would give us 3 picks in the teens which would be the sweet spot for us.  In that event, you go best edge at 10 (Johnson or Karlaftis likely), then OL (maybe Linderbaum vs Penning), and then also the WR.

In the event we do not trade and are stuck at 4, with both OTs gone, and no trade partner that we desire, then it’s Sauce.  At 10, we might yet have another opportunity to recoup another pick or a 2nd, for a late move-up in the first again, but if at 10 and no trades, you need to go edge at that point and wait til Round 2, or a trade-up into the late first round for a WR.  One of Karlaftis or Johnson should be there.  If they aren’t, you are looking at Sauce or KVT dropping to 10. Not bad consolation prizes.  

 

[ManCave Analyst]

Nice job putting your draft forecast together. If you watch the analysts and reporters on TV, they seem to be hinting similar predictions. Today, I believe that an OT would be our pick at #4. Because of value and potential need.
At #10, although there is some good potential talent, I’m not so sure we are locked in at WR, because I’m hearing there really isn’t a True #1 WR in this draft . Hence the attempted trade for T. Hill and the continued chatter for a possible trade for Brown or Metcalf. I think Douglas will trade for one of them and will have to Overpay them on a contract extension. But, we need to try to get Zach a weapon to be part of his growth development and evaluation.


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[Long Island Leprechaun]

You do realize you're advocating for a "depth" pick at #4 overall? Unless Becton is toast, that would be an enormous waste of resources when there are serious holes at other skill positions that need high quality starters. I can fully understand drafting a tackle or center/guard in rounds 3 or later, but not in the first round or even the second.

[Warfish]

A #4 pick should be a difference maker, a game-changer, who starts effecting the team and wins/losses almost immediately.

I have my own view on what positions and players could meet that criteria, but I'll be honest, I don't see a OL, DT or Safety as meeting that criteria. 

[Gangrene]

Rational, it's not going to be popular but for me it always made sense to go tackle at 4 with Becton being high risk. The top two pass rushers are not generational, the wide receivers are certainly less than that unless a team has a patient time line on Jameson Williams's recovery curve.

Depending on how the board falls, either one of the two  top OTs or Sauce Gardner. Gardner might make a tangible difference to the trajectory of a franchise even on a zone team.

I doubt Jermaine Johnson is there at 10, it would be automatic if he is. 

The other legitimate possibility is that we trade down with New Orleans if they are keen on going up for a qb or tackle.

[Guilhermezmc]

Its April 2022 and people still call Mekhi "Bechton"

[OilfieldJet]

OT may be the best choice:

- Low "bust" risk

- premium position

- need

- best player available

- value

[slats]

50 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

As I see it now, Hutchinson is a lock for the top 3.  The key is whether two OTs go, an OT and Willis go, or an OT and an EDGE go.  In all scenarios but the first one, one of Evan Neal vs. Ikem Ekwonu falls.  In that event I am now leaning OT.

In this scenario, it’s gotta be Sauce or their favorite Edge (or a trade back?). 
 
I disagree with some of what you’re supposing here. I think the willingness to part with both seconds means the Jets recognize that WR is a huge need. That if they can’t trade for a starting WR, it could easily become a bigger priority in the draft. Also do not see the OL as a problem area. McGovern played a lot better when he had better guards next to him, and the guards next to him this year will be very good. Fans may have given up on Becton, but the organization appears to be all in. They don’t need to use the #4 pick on tackle insurance, they need to use it on an impact player this year. There are still good OL available in free agency to shore up the line, too, players who will likely still be available after the draft. 

[ManCave Analyst]

I’m not advocating, just looking at Value at #4. So far you have to be very concerned with Becton’s potential bust status and this being Fant’s last year here because of what he might be looking to be paid in his next contact. Drafting one of the 2 highly rated OTs gives you good/strong options for this year and looking ahead to next year. The draft is about Value and trying to be remain true to your Board.
But this is just another opinion based on what I’m hearing. None of us are wrong, because we aren’t Douglas, and don’t really know what conversations he’s had with other Teams and within our Staff. I’m glad that you all are interested in doing your offseason and draft homework. Although, sometimes opinions get heated and passion runs ahead of logic.


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[IndianaJet]

I've thought since the end of the season that JD was going to try as hard as he can to trade back in this draft.

The question is, would he settle for below average compensation to trade back in a draft where the top 5/10 picks are below average when compared to prior drafts.

JD "killing" this draft might just be coming out of it with an additional 1st next year, especially if that pick is from a team that ends up bottom 10/15 next year.

[PepPep]

Upvote. However, it's a bit of a pet peeve but its BECTON not BECHTON. 

At this point, going through all the potential trade scenarios is nearly impossible. You just can't predict how tings will unfold as other teams make moves. For example- The Saints made a trade with the Eagles and that completely changes everything that 'could' happen as now they are in play for moving up for a QB. Just not worth even trying, IMO. 

As far as the argument that we should not be taking an OT at 4. I am a firm believer that while you should always keep positional value and positional need in mind, when you are selecting at the top of the draft, you need to take BAP. This seems to be in line with Saleh and JD's reasoning (if what you say is true). So if they believe Ekwonu, Neal or Sauce are those guys over the 3rd or 2nd best Edge in this class. I'm ok with that. 

My preference- and I've advocated for this numerous times already on this site- is that Seattle gives up DK for a move to secure Malik Willis. So if true, its good to hear that he is rising. While DK is not a perfect #1, he is young and still has a ton of potential. He is also, IMO, exactly what Zach needs. A legit deep threat on the outside who can also be a big body target down the middle. I think Zach (who is an accurate deep ball passer) would have great chemistry with DK and potentially completely change this offense because of the way secondaries would now have to defend the Jets- opening up space for our TEs to operate down the middle.    

[Origen]

The more we think this draft sucks the more hall of famers will be created.  Even the years of "great" draft stock it was a crap shoot.

[Jet Blast]

10 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I've thought since the end of the season that JD was going to try as hard as he can to trade back in this draft.

The question is, would he settle for below average compensation to trade back in a draft where the top 5/10 picks are below average when compared to prior drafts.

JD "killing" this draft might just be coming out of it with an additional 1st next year, especially if that pick is from a team that ends up bottom 10/15 next year.

Based on JD's past performance, I think it's extremely unlikely that he would ever settle for below average compensation.

[Scott Dierking]

35 minutes ago, Warfish said:

A #4 pick should be a difference maker, a game-changer, who starts effecting the team and wins/losses almost immediately.

I have my own view on what positions and players could meet that criteria, but I'll be honest, I don't see a OL, DT or Safety as meeting that criteria. 

WHO is that player in this year's draft? I do not know personally.

[oatmeal]

If you want a depth tackle that’s what the later rounds are for 

 

 

[Warfish]

14 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

WHO is that player in this year's draft? I do not know personally.

I'll be honest, I don't think it's a "who", I think it's a what.

I've laid this argument out several times, many don't agree with it and I respect that. 

But I believe that supporting Wilson and the Offense trumps doing the usual "win the draft, draft the BAP value and crush the Draft Points Chart!" methodology so often favored by some fans.

Wilson is desperate for support on O at the skill positions.  While I like Moore, Davis is a ? IMO, Berrios is KR and a #4/depth WR (not a starter) and Mims is a bust on his last chances unlikely to turn it around here.  We're basically, today, betting our QB future in the NFL on....Moore.  Who missed alot of time last year.  It's too risky.

I'm unimpressed with the FA TE's, they're better than what we had, but not by that much tbqh.  They won't move the needle much on this offense. 

So I'm 100% for a WR in the top 10.  The best one we can get.  We can debate all day who that is, but that's my position, get the best WR possible at (likely) #10.  I'm unmoved by the "well, the 2nd and 3rd rounders are always just as good, just look at these 1 in 20 cherry picked examples!" argument.  Demonstrably that belief has failed for this franchise for well over a decade+.  Including with Mims now.  We always draft the 19 failures, never the 1 that succeeds in those rounds.  Guess it depends on your faith in JD in those mid-rounds, IMO his resume doesn;t look so good there so far.

Wilson is my guy at WR, primarily for his comps to McLaurin, but honestly, I could be convinced for Olave, or even one of the other guys at WR.  I'm less about the player (as much as I like what I read about Wilson) than I am the position.

And yes, a WR moves the meedle and impacts us immediately IMO, finally making our WR's not a material weakness for this franchise.

As for the other pick, I'm more than happy with Defense.  Edge is clearly a desperate need (And Lawson given his injury cannot and should not be counted on to be the same guy he was, and even if he is, he was mostly a pressures, not a sack guy anyway).  So edge is fine.  Sauce at CB is probably fine.  No Safety or DT tho, that's lunacy.  Literally repeating the mistakes of the past verbatim.

I appreciate many hate this idea, and prefer to strictly draft BAP.  Like I said, I respect their beliefs, and acknowledge they could be right.  But I'm not betting Wilson's future on that.  As of now, Wilson is a bust.  I'm doing my damn'est to make sure he isn't one if I were GM of this team.

Obv. this all changes if we trade for McLaurin, or some other #1 WR before the draft.  I'd be more open to Defense/Defense (Edge and CB sounds good) in that scenario.

[Phillyjet]

57 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

You do realize you're advocating for a "depth" pick at #4 overall? Unless Becton is toast, that would be an enormous waste of resources when there are serious holes at other skill positions that need high quality starters. I can fully understand drafting a tackle or center/guard in rounds 3 or later, but not in the first round or even the second.

Disagree on the OT:  Fant is pushing 30 and likely gone after next year.   We are one injury away from Connor McDermott.  You draft an OT, who can start early, or can compete with Fant and Becton for an edge position, you fill an immediate need.  As far as the scenario where both OTs are gone, and Sauce is on the board, your point has some merit... but that's also why it will be interesting to see if a trade-up occurs at that point as Willis is on the board.   Could see that decision playing out. 

[Phillyjet]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll be honest, I don't think it's a "who", I think it's a what.

I've laid this argument out several times, many don't agree with it and I respect that. 

But I believe that supporting Wilson and the Offense trumps doing the usual "win the draft, draft the BAP value and crush the Draft Points Chart!" methodology so often favored by some fans.

Wilson is desperate for support on O at the skill positions.  While I like Moore, Davis is a ? IMO, Berrios is KR and a #4/depth WR (not a starter) and Mims is a bust on his last chances unlikely to turn it around here.  We're basically, today, betting our QB future in the NFL on....Moore.  Who missed alot of time last year.  It's too risky.

I'm unimpressed with the FA TE's, they're better than what we had, but not by that much tbqh.  They won't move the needle much on this offense. 

So I'm 100% for a WR in the top 10.  The best one we can get.  We can debate all day who that is, but that's my position, get the best WR possible at (likely) #10.  I'm unmoved by the "well, the 2nd and 3rd rounders are always just as good" argument.  Demonstrably that belief has failed for this franchise for well over a decade+.  Including with Mims now.

Wilson is my guy, but honestly, I could be convinced for Olave, or even one of the other guys at WR.  I'm less about the player (as much as I like what I read about Wilson) than I am the position.

And yes, a WR moves the meedle and impacts us immediately IMO, finally making our WR's not a material weakness for this franchise.

As for the other pick, I'm more than happy with Defense.  Edge is clearly a desperate need (And Lawson given his injury cannot and should not be counted on to be the same guy he was, and even if he is, he was mostly a pressures, not a sack guy anyway).  So edge is fine.  Sauce at CB is probably fine.  No Safety or DT tho, that's lunacy.  Literally repeating the mistakes of the past verbatim.

I appreciate many hate this idea, and prefer to strictly draft BAP.  Like I said, I respect their beliefs, and acknowledge they could be right.  But I'm not betting Wilson's future on that.  As of now, Wilson is a bust.  I'm doing my damn'est to make sure he isn't one if I were GM of this team.

 

Unless we trade for a WR before the draft, I am increasingly thinking we will come away with three 1st round picks, whether by trade-down with one of the firsts or trade-up with our seconds.  Still think we come away with a WR in the first in that event. 

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, Phillyjet said:

Incorporating some new tidbits from across the offseason into what may be the direction in the draft.  These include:

1) Malik Willis rising quickly; check out Thor Nystrom’s review of him online… calls him generational, and expects to see the Lions take him at 2.  New Orleans trading for an extra first in this year’s draft makes you think that a run on QBs is likely to happen and there will be a trade-up.  Quite possible that 2-3 QBs now go in the top 10, if Willis goes at 2.  Corral and Picket are in play.  Corral is rising.  

2) Saleh on record saying the top of the edge class is lacking in generational talent like a Garrett or Von Miller, but is very deep.  At 10 or in the teens, and into the second round even, there will be prospects that grade similarly to some of the guys in the top 10.  They are not separating.  KVT for all the off the field stuff is not a bender and his speed will be neutralized somewhat in the pros… that narrows the gap, apart from his off the field issues.

3) The OT’s at the top are potentially the best players in the draft.  And make no mistake, our depth at tackle is woeful.  Bechton now a huge question mark, and Fant pushing 30, with a big contract on the horizon.  The Jets pursuit of Ryan Jensen makes me believe center is an area they’d like to upgrade.  Frustrating how much the o-line remains a need.  The uncertainty around Bechton is a big deal, but even if he was rock solid, RT/swing tackle, and center are now substantial needs. Keep in mind McGovern was injured late in the season; something to watch.  

4) We were willing to spend our 2nds on a WR, which signals our desire to use the firsts elsewhere.  This may still happen, but it shows that the backup may be to see who falls to the second round like last year, given the lack of elite generational players at the top.

5) Both Joe and Saleh are on record talking about the top 5 as not picking for need, you pick for generational.  You may miss, but apart from the QB, that’s what you do. That puts Ahmad Gardner in play, despite Saleh not necessarily needing the top CB in his system.  Gardner generates pressure by taking half the field away, which allows the Jets to rush more players on throwing downs.  Don’t underestimate that, even in Saleh’s system.  

As I see it now, Hutchinson is a lock for the top 3.  The key is whether two OTs go, an OT and Willis go, or an OT and an EDGE go.  In all scenarios but the first one, one of Evan Neal vs. Ikem Ekwonu falls.  In that event I am now leaning OT.  If both OTs go, then it’s Sauce vs. trade down for one of the QB teams who want Willis. There are now at least 5-6 teams that may be in on QBs, including Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Washington, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh.  Carolina works best, as we would still get a top tackle or Gardner, depending on who the GIANTS take.  Seattle trading up from 9 looks good, if they include DK in that trade.  We could return a 2nd or 3rd round pick there if need be, which makes it a bit harder to compare to the Jamal Adam’s fiasco for Schneider, as they could then get their WR in round 2.  New Orleans trading 16 and 19 would give us 3 picks in the teens which would be the sweet spot for us.  In that event, you go best edge at 10 (Johnson or Karlaftis likely), then OL (maybe Linderbaum vs Penning), and then also the WR.

In the event we do not trade and are stuck at 4, with both OTs gone, and no trade partner that we desire, then it’s Sauce.  At 10, we might yet have another opportunity to recoup another pick or a 2nd, for a late move-up in the first again, but if at 10 and no trades, you need to go edge at that point and wait til Round 2, or a trade-up into the late first round for a WR.  One of Karlaftis or Johnson should be there.  If they aren’t, you are looking at Sauce or KVT dropping to 10. Not bad consolation prizes.  

 

Wow, thanks for this. Appreciate it 

[Warfish]

Quote

...calls him generational...

[The Crusher]

59 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

You do realize you're advocating for a "depth" pick at #4 overall? Unless Becton is toast, that would be an enormous waste of resources when there are serious holes at other skill positions that need high quality starters. I can fully understand drafting a tackle or center/guard in rounds 3 or later, but not in the first round or even the second.

It would be unless Becton is toast, I guess we will find out for real how the team feels about Becton’s potential  of coming and contributing substantially. Their actions on day one will likely remove all the talk about Becton and replace it with action. 
 

If we go OT that high then it’s likely Becton they see as the depth. So I think the OP is 100% correct about his take on this. 

[The Crusher]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

A #4 pick should be a difference maker, a game-changer, who starts effecting the team and wins/losses almost immediately.

I have my own view on what positions and players could meet that criteria, but I'll be honest, I don't see a OL, DT or Safety as meeting that criteria. 

In a perfect world yes. But in Jetland, with Becton as an unknown I think OT early is on the table. I don’t like it, but Joe talks about the trenches and without a sure fire generational guy, I can see it happening depending on where Becton really is. 

7 hours ago, Gangrene said:

Rational, it's not going to be popular but for me it always made sense to go tackle at 4 with Becton being high risk. The top two pass rushers are not generational, the wide receivers are certainly less than that unless a team has a patient time line on Jameson Williams's recovery curve.

Depending on how the board falls, either one of the two  top OTs or Sauce Gardner. Gardner might make a tangible difference to the trajectory of a franchise even on a zone team.

I doubt Jermaine Johnson is there at 10, it would be automatic if he is. 

The other legitimate possibility is that we trade down with New Orleans if they are keen on going up for a qb or tackle.

Yep, kinda point I’m at. Sorta sucks, 

[The Crusher]

56 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Its April 2022 and people still call Mekhi "Bechton"

*Benchton

[doitny]

53 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Disagree on the OT:  Fant is pushing 30 and likely gone after next year.   We are one injury away from Connor McDermott.  You draft an OT, who can start early, or can compete with Fant and Becton for an edge position, you fill an immediate need.  As far as the scenario where both OTs are gone, and Sauce is on the board, your point has some merit... but that's also why it will be interesting to see if a trade-up occurs at that point as Willis is on the board.   Could see that decision playing out. 

well your going to get Connor McDermott, or someone similar in 5 years if you pay this OL the 20 plus mil he should be demanding being picked at 4 because he is so good. and kiss AVT goodbye cause you cant pay 2 guys on the OL that kind of money. no body wins with stars on the OL. they all have 2nd, 3rd and later picks and they win. they use there top picks on position that matter.

 

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

As far as the argument that we should not be taking an OT at 4. I am a firm believer that while you should always keep positional value and positional need in mind, when you are selecting at the top of the draft, you need to take BAP.

except when the BAP is at the same position for 3 years in a row. so if next year we are in a similar position do we draft OL for a 4th year in a row? why do fans of a team that hasnt won a SB in 60 years or make the playoffs in over 10 want to do things that no other team does. no other team drafts 2 OL in back to back years and were doing for a 3rd. 

 

56 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

It would be unless Becton is toast, I guess we will find out for real how the team feels about Becton’s potential  of coming and contributing substantially. Their actions on day one will likely remove all the talk about Becton and replace it with action. 
 

If we go OT that high then it’s likely Becton they see as the depth. So I think the OP is 100% correct about his take on this. 

you had a great take on this that stuck with me...

you dont use a top 1st rd pick on a OL to replace your failed top 1st rd pick on the OL from 2 years ago.

great saying and still is true even if Becton is toast. we can get his backup in rd 3 or some TC cut.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, slats said:

In this scenario, it’s gotta be Sauce or their favorite Edge (or a trade back?). 
 
I disagree with some of what you’re supposing here. I think the willingness to part with both seconds means the Jets recognize that WR is a huge need. That if they can’t trade for a starting WR, it could easily become a bigger priority in the draft. Also do not see the OL as a problem area. McGovern played a lot better when he had better guards next to him, and the guards next to him this year will be very good. Fans may have given up on Becton, but the organization appears to be all in. They don’t need to use the #4 pick on tackle insurance, they need to use it on an impact player this year. There are still good OL available in free agency to shore up the line, too, players who will likely still be available after the draft. 

I agree with you on WR. If we don't trade down I could even see us trading ahead of Atlanta to get the WR we want or possibly even taking WR at 4 if there are enough players we think will be there at 10. I will say that the NO trade seems like a precursor to a trade up to either us or the Giants. 

Disagree on OL a little bit and would not be shocked with OL at 4. It depends on what they think of Becton a bit, but even then we are super thin at OT and will have to sign or trade for at least 1 by the start of next season possibly even if we extend Fant. Worst case scenario is that at this time next year we have no starting OT on the roster.

[PepPep]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I'll be honest, I don't think it's a "who", I think it's a what.

I've laid this argument out several times, many don't agree with it and I respect that. 

But I believe that supporting Wilson and the Offense trumps doing the usual "win the draft, draft the BAP value and crush the Draft Points Chart!" methodology so often favored by some fans.

Wilson is desperate for support on O at the skill positions.  While I like Moore, Davis is a ? IMO, Berrios is KR and a #4/depth WR (not a starter) and Mims is a bust on his last chances unlikely to turn it around here.  We're basically, today, betting our QB future in the NFL on....Moore.  Who missed alot of time last year.  It's too risky.

I'm unimpressed with the FA TE's, they're better than what we had, but not by that much tbqh.  They won't move the needle much on this offense. 

So I'm 100% for a WR in the top 10.  The best one we can get.  We can debate all day who that is, but that's my position, get the best WR possible at (likely) #10.  I'm unmoved by the "well, the 2nd and 3rd rounders are always just as good, just look at these 1 in 20 cherry picked examples!" argument.  Demonstrably that belief has failed for this franchise for well over a decade+.  Including with Mims now.  We always draft the 19 failures, never the 1 that succeeds in those rounds.  Guess it depends on your faith in JD in those mid-rounds, IMO his resume doesn;t look so good there so far.

Wilson is my guy at WR, primarily for his comps to McLaurin, but honestly, I could be convinced for Olave, or even one of the other guys at WR.  I'm less about the player (as much as I like what I read about Wilson) than I am the position.

And yes, a WR moves the meedle and impacts us immediately IMO, finally making our WR's not a material weakness for this franchise.

As for the other pick, I'm more than happy with Defense.  Edge is clearly a desperate need (And Lawson given his injury cannot and should not be counted on to be the same guy he was, and even if he is, he was mostly a pressures, not a sack guy anyway).  So edge is fine.  Sauce at CB is probably fine.  No Safety or DT tho, that's lunacy.  Literally repeating the mistakes of the past verbatim.

I appreciate many hate this idea, and prefer to strictly draft BAP.  Like I said, I respect their beliefs, and acknowledge they could be right.  But I'm not betting Wilson's future on that.  As of now, Wilson is a bust.  I'm doing my damn'est to make sure he isn't one if I were GM of this team.

Obv. this all changes if we trade for McLaurin, or some other #1 WR before the draft.  I'd be more open to Defense/Defense (Edge and CB sounds good) in that scenario.

I think almost EVERYONE will agree that going in with ONLY BAP and completely ignoring need or positional value is not a smart way to draft. There is definitely a middle ground. 

I will also add that GM's- IMO, pay attention to the PLAYER. And what I mean by that is, the zero in on the player, not the position. If they really, really like a certain player, they go for him. Typically, those guys are at positions of need. But let's say we are talking about WR. The Jets may simply not like WRs who are considered top 2-3 as much as they like, say Burks or Olave. For better or worse, they may just absolutely love those two guys and would rather trade back from 10 or trade up from Rd. 2 to get one of them. So while you love Wilson, others love Williams others love London. The Jets might absolutely love Burks. And for wall we know Burks might end up being the best of the bunch. In THIS group that could very well be possible. 

You can say the same about Edge. GM's covet the player. Sometimes that coincides with where they are ranked by pundits, sometimes it does not. I think Walker is an absolute PERFECT fit for this defense and fits exactly the type of player profile JD looks for. Do I want him at pick #4? Probably not. But I could totally see the Jets falling in love with him and taking him that early. Same with Sauce.

*Side note: Seems to me and to everyone else who has not been living under a rock that JD would prefer a proven vet WR for Zach. Even if that meant giving up considerable draft capital and a financial investment.    

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I'll be honest, I don't think it's a "who", I think it's a what.

I've laid this argument out several times, many don't agree with it and I respect that. 

But I believe that supporting Wilson and the Offense trumps doing the usual "win the draft, draft the BAP value and crush the Draft Points Chart!" methodology so often favored by some fans.

Wilson is desperate for support on O at the skill positions.  While I like Moore, Davis is a ? IMO, Berrios is KR and a #4/depth WR (not a starter) and Mims is a bust on his last chances unlikely to turn it around here.  We're basically, today, betting our QB future in the NFL on....Moore.  Who missed alot of time last year.  It's too risky.

I'm unimpressed with the FA TE's, they're better than what we had, but not by that much tbqh.  They won't move the needle much on this offense. 

So I'm 100% for a WR in the top 10.  The best one we can get.  We can debate all day who that is, but that's my position, get the best WR possible at (likely) #10.  I'm unmoved by the "well, the 2nd and 3rd rounders are always just as good, just look at these 1 in 20 cherry picked examples!" argument.  Demonstrably that belief has failed for this franchise for well over a decade+.  Including with Mims now.  We always draft the 19 failures, never the 1 that succeeds in those rounds.  Guess it depends on your faith in JD in those mid-rounds, IMO his resume doesn;t look so good there so far.

Wilson is my guy at WR, primarily for his comps to McLaurin, but honestly, I could be convinced for Olave, or even one of the other guys at WR.  I'm less about the player (as much as I like what I read about Wilson) than I am the position.

And yes, a WR moves the meedle and impacts us immediately IMO, finally making our WR's not a material weakness for this franchise.

As for the other pick, I'm more than happy with Defense.  Edge is clearly a desperate need (And Lawson given his injury cannot and should not be counted on to be the same guy he was, and even if he is, he was mostly a pressures, not a sack guy anyway).  So edge is fine.  Sauce at CB is probably fine.  No Safety or DT tho, that's lunacy.  Literally repeating the mistakes of the past verbatim.

I appreciate many hate this idea, and prefer to strictly draft BAP.  Like I said, I respect their beliefs, and acknowledge they could be right.  But I'm not betting Wilson's future on that.  As of now, Wilson is a bust.  I'm doing my damn'est to make sure he isn't one if I were GM of this team.

Obv. this all changes if we trade for McLaurin, or some other #1 WR before the draft.  I'd be more open to Defense/Defense (Edge and CB sounds good) in that scenario.

I am fully with you on this. People always say that "but we will play a LOT of 12 personnel" and while that may be true it will still only be 10-20% of the snaps and 11 will be the primary alignment which it is for every single team in the NFL. So a true #1 is critically important. I am hoping the TEs turn out to be a bigger upgrade than you think

[PepPep]

2 minutes ago, doitny said:

except when the BAP is at the same position for 3 years in a row. so if next year we are in a similar position do we draft OL for a 4th year in a row? why do fans of a team that hasnt won a SB in 60 years or make the playoffs in over 10 want to do things that no other team does. no other team drafts 2 OL in back to back years and were doing for a 3rd. 

I think it depends on the situation. If lets say Becton is a complete wash-out. Gets injured again- misses all of 2022-23 season and Fant does not look like the same Fant as last year and leaves in FA so we end up with Ekwonu/Neal on one side but no OT on the other, then we are staring at one of the best OTs in the draft at pick 8 (or whatever)- YES. Draft another OT. Because its a need, a premium position and BAP.  

Conversely, if Fant is solid, Becton turns things around AND we have Neal/Ekwonu, we can just let Fant walk (or trade) and even if we are staring at a top OT in the draft, pass on that selection because we have the O-line taken care of and potentially a need at another position trumps taking that guy. 

It just depends. I never said BAP should trump ALL decision making. That would be moronic. 

[JohnnyLV]

7 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I think almost EVERYONE will agree that going in with ONLY BAP and completely ignoring need or positional value is not a smart way to draft. There is definitely a middle ground. 

I will also add that GM's- IMO, pay attention to the PLAYER. And what I mean by that is, the zero in on the player, not the position. If they really, really like a certain player, they go for him. Typically, those guys are at positions of need. But let's say we are talking about WR. The Jets may simply not like WRs who are considered top 2-3 as much as they like, say Burks or Olave. For better or worse, they may just absolutely love those two guys and would rather trade back from 10 or trade up from Rd. 2 to get one of them. So while you love Wilson, others love Williams others love London. The Jets might absolutely love Burks. And for wall we know Burks might end up being the best of the bunch. In THIS group that could very well be possible. 

You can say the same about Edge. GM's covet the player. Sometimes that coincides with where they are ranked by pundits, sometimes it does not. I think Walker is an absolute PERFECT fit for this defense and fits exactly the type of player profile JD looks for. Do I want him at pick #4? Probably not. But I could totally see the Jets falling in love with him and taking him that early. Same with Sauce.

*Side note: Seems to me and to everyone else who has not been living under a rock that JD would prefer a proven vet WR for Zach. Even if that meant giving up considerable draft capital and a financial investment.    

With 2 picks in the first round if you LOVE a player you just take him and don't try and be cute and get more "value" That is why there are always several picks in the first round where the analysts will lose their minds over the "value" at the position. PFF thought our trade up for AVT was one of the worst picks in the draft but is anyone unhappy we have him. If you LOVE a player you think he is a Pro Bowler + in the first round so just take him and move on unless you are certain he will be there later. Most trade downs are because there are several players that you really like and 1 of them will still be there.

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, doitny said:

well your going to get Connor McDermott, or someone similar in 5 years if you pay this OL the 20 plus mil he should be demanding being picked at 4 because he is so good. and kiss AVT goodbye cause you cant pay 2 guys on the OL that kind of money. no body wins with stars on the OL. they all have 2nd, 3rd and later picks and they win. they use there top picks on position that matter.

 

except when the BAP is at the same position for 3 years in a row. so if next year we are in a similar position do we draft OL for a 4th year in a row? why do fans of a team that hasnt won a SB in 60 years or make the playoffs in over 10 want to do things that no other team does. no other team drafts 2 OL in back to back years and were doing for a 3rd. 

 

you had a great take on this that stuck with me...

you dont use a top 1st rd pick on a OL to replace your failed top 1st rd pick on the OL from 2 years ago.

great saying and still is true even if Becton is toast. we can get his backup in rd 3 or some TC cut.

Yeah. I think most work in 3rd round, I’m just not sure Joe Douglas will. He’s the “ build in trenches guy”, I can see him doing it and blaming it in circumstance. I do t agree with it, I just see it possibly happening. 

[DonCorleone]

1 hour ago, Origen said:

The more we think this draft sucks the more hall of famers will be created.  Even the years of "great" draft stock it was a crap shoot.

I've been thinking the same thing. People have overused and clearly misused the phrase "generational talent" I also have a hunch that people are under reaching in this draft

[kevinc855]

If we go o line at 4 JD should be tarred and feathered 

[addage]

Great thread.  Appreciate all the thoughts.

If the best position in the draft is OL, take one.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

The but to point #4 is that the Hill trade just says they're willing to come out of the first two days with three guys, one of whom is a starting WR. They're probably not getting that at (or jumping up from) 35 so if they can't make a trade they will probably pivot to WR with 4 or 10.

[The Crusher]

2 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

The but to point #4 is that the Hill trade just says they're willing to come out of the first two days with three guys, one of whom is a starting WR. They're probably not getting that at (or jumping up from) 35 so if they can't make a trade they will probably pivot to WR with 4 or 10.

If that’s the case do you think they just pull the trigger at 4 for the WO and get their guy? Or wait till 10?