LeFleur: Terrifying analysis by Kurt Warner

[Jet Nut]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I literally referenced the first five minutes. 

And literally ignore the first video loaded with his good throws.  
Skipped right to the second video where in the first 5 minutes most of the criticism is on LaFleur
Im shocked, anyone else?  Lol

[T0mShane]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Yeah, I watched the game.  

So, you watched him go 8 for 24 with two picks through the first three quarters and were like, “Man, that boy is on fire”?

[T0mShane]

10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And literally ignore the first video loaded with his good throws.  
Skipped right to the second video where in the first 5 minutes most of the criticism is on LaFleur
Im shocked, anyone else?  Lol

I clicked on the link in the original post.

[Warfish]

24 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

So a 2nd year QB making his 14th start after not practicing for 5 weeks and missing the end of camp missed some throws?  That's a revelation and a concern?

Yes, his career 55.1 completion percentage is absolutely a concern.

As it should be to any objective observer in a league where the range for good QB's is closer to 65-70%

24 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

You can take film of virtually NFL QB and do the same thing and find missed throws - and poorly designed plays.

Perhaps, but those QB's are, for the most part, completing 8-10% more of their passes than Zach is, so far.

24 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

How about we give Wilson the remaining 13 games this season to see if he has improved before we do this throw by throw dissection every week.

Why?  What difference does it make if we do analysis-by-game or not?  

If you're not interested in game-by-game analysis, why are you reading and posting in a game-by-game analysis thread?

Did you email Warner, and ask him to "give Zach the remaining 13 games" before he publishes any more videos on Zach?

These "give them time" comments always baffle me.  We fans have no choice in the matter, and of course everyone will do analysis game-by-game.  

24 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

 And for every analysis like Warner's, there have been 3-4 by other analysts showing how well Wilson played.  

Great! 

Did you email them too, and ask them to "give Zach the remaining 13 games" before they do any analysis, or is it just critical views that need to wait, while positive views have a free pass to do game-by-game?

[Barry McCockinner]

I wonder how much of the concept issues can be attributed to new guys in the offense just not doing what is expected. It seems like a pretty complex offense where the route runners need to identify the coverage and make precise decisions on the fly. It could just be all on little flower drawing up crap plays but I suspect it's at least in part due to guys making incorrect reads/decisions. You'd expect a guy like Moore to have it down and not make mistakes but Warner explicitly calls him out on the 1st half INT. At the end of the day it's on little flower to teach the guys or simplify if he can't.

Hopefully something that gets cleaned up over the course of the season.

[Ghost420]

20 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, you watched him go 8 for 24 with two picks through the first three quarters and were like, “Man, that boy is on fire”?

Why don't your just go find a new team to follow?

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

Why don't your just go find a new team to follow?

Ooh man. Which team? 

[Warfish]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Ooh man. Which team? 

One that wins?

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

One that wins?

Funny. I thought the Jets won last week?  I guess it's not a win unless the QB stats meet your standard of approval.  I guess the 4th quarter didn't happen.  I guess the two long drives behind 10 of 12 passing for 126 and a TD on 65 and 81 yard drives was a dream.   Instead, let's harp on the incompletions and pine for Mike White's game vs Cincy last season as the only real measuring stick for QB play.  This board is a cesspool.  Have fun being miserable.  

[Green DNA]

The first five minutes is Kurt Warner being exasperated at Zach not recognizing open receivers on schedule, holding the ball too long, and cowering under a pass rush. When does the LaFleur part start, because I’m curious how an offense that makes Mike White, Chris Streveler, Josh Johnson and a semi-retired Joe Flacco look good to great is hurting Zach Wilson?

Congratulations, you finally found a talking head to prop up your narrative


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[batman10023]

50 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, his career 55.1 completion percentage is absolutely a concern.

As it should be to any objective observer in a league where the range for good QB's is closer to 65-70%

Perhaps, but those QB's are, for the most part, completing 8-10% more of their passes than Zach is, so far.

Why?  What difference does it make if we do analysis-by-game or not?  

If you're not interested in game-by-game analysis, why are you reading and posting in a game-by-game analysis thread?

Did you email Warner, and ask him to "give Zach the remaining 13 games" before he publishes any more videos on Zach?

These "give them time" comments always baffle me.  We fans have no choice in the matter, and of course everyone will do analysis game-by-game.  

Great! 

Did you email them too, and ask them to "give Zach the remaining 13 games" before they do any analysis, or is it just critical views that need to wait, while positive views have a free pass to do game-by-game?

Josh Allen was 52% his first year.  what was Zach Wilson??

Josh Allen threw for 254 yards with 1 TD (one rushing as well) and 4!! turnovers his first game of second year.   how was Zach Wilson?

  

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Funny. I thought the Jets won last week?

They did.  Did I say they didn't?

Lota teams out there that win a heck of alot more than we have of late, if you Fan Gatekeepers are kicking T0m off the bus.

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I guess it's not a win unless the QB stats meet your standard of approval.

I wouldn't (and didn't) say that.

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

 I guess the 4th quarter didn't happen.

I wouldn't (and didn't) say that.

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

 I guess the two long drives behind 10 of 12 passing for 126 and a TD on 65 and 81 yard drives was a dream.

I wouldn't (and didn't) say that.

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Instead, let's harp on the incompletions

I don't think having concerns about Zach's extremely low completion percentage (by modern NFL standards) is "harping".

I think it's a valid concern about a young QB's future.  An area to hope for improvement.

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

and pine for Mike White's game vs Cincy last season as the only real measuring stick for QB play.

It was a hell of a game/performance.

I'd like to see Zach equal it.  I think that would be great for both him and our team if he could, at some point (soonish).

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

 This board is a cesspool.  Have fun being miserable.  

Have fun being a whining 6 year old girl who dropped her dolly.  Boo.  Hoo.  Hoo.

[Warfish]

Just now, batman10023 said:

Josh Allen was 52% his first year.  what was Zach Wilson??

55.6% in 2021, as I am sure you were already aware.

Are you making an equivalency argument that Zach is equal to Allen, and we can/should expect the same level of improvement over a similar timeframe?

If not, what does Allen have to do with Wilson?  

Just now, batman10023 said:

Josh Allen threw for 254 yards with 1 TD (one rushing as well) and 4!! turnovers his first game of second year.   

how was Zach Wilson?

What point is it you think you're making here?

I just want to be clear before I respond further, because it sure sounds like a pair of "Zach Wilson is just as good or better than Josh Allen" arguments here.

[batman10023]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

55.6% in 2021, as I am sure you were already aware.

Are you making an equivalency argument that Zach is equal to Allen, and we can/should expect the same level of improvement over a similar timeframe?

If not, what does Allen have to do with Wilson?  

What point is it you think you're making here?

I just want to be clear before I respond further, because it sure sounds like a pair of "Zach Wilson is just as good or better than Josh Allen" arguments here.

your argument was that most good QB do much better.  I pointed out a highly regarded QB that did worse in year 1.

and since you were talking about looking week to week, i showed his first week season 2.

it seems like some people would rather have their team's QB bust as to not prove them wrong. 

 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

So, you watched him go 8 for 24 with two picks through the first three quarters and were like, “Man, that boy is on fire”?

I watched him make throws your guy could only dream of.  
He made throws, he played well in the 3rd in the limited time they had the ball. 

[Jet Nut]

21 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I just want to be clear before I respond further, because it sure sounds like a pair of "Zach Wilson is just as good or better than Josh Allen" arguments here.

It sounds nothing like that.

Nice twist from you can improve to he’s as good or better

[slats]

No shock that the bad play video gets a lot more response that the highlights. We are who we are. What I found interesting is that now both JT and Warner pretty much lay the blame for the late half interception on Moore. 
 
Both videos were critical of the sidearm throw on the deflected pick, too, but on this one it looked to me like Zach was trying to avoid getting the ball batted down at the line. 
 
All in all I have to say that I’m not only shocked, but downright terrified that Zach, LaFluer, and the offense still have some work to do after Zach’s first game back. 

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

No shock that the bad play video gets a lot more response that the highlights. We are who we are. What I found interesting is that now both JT and Warner pretty much lay the blame for the late half interception on Moore. 
 
Both videos were critical of the sidearm throw on the deflected pick, too, but on this one it looked to me like Zach was trying to avoid getting the ball batted down at the line. 
 
All in all I have to say that I’m not only shocked, but downright terrified that Zach, LaFluer, and the offense still have some work to do after Zach’s first game back. 

Yea looked like Moore gave up on his route, which happens, but sucks 

[Irktusk1957]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

So, you watched him go 8 for 24 with two picks through the first three quarters and were like, “Man, that boy is on fire”?

In his stellar fourth quarter against the Steelers, his time to throw was 2.49 seconds (well below his average in the game of 3.31). He just has to pull the trigger and stop ******* around

And to think after your comment above I literally thought:

“And what happened, then? Well, in Whoville they say – that the Grinch's small heart grew three sizes that day."

But you reverted back to the guy we know and sometimes love...

 

[Warfish]

37 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

your argument was that most good QB do much better.  I pointed out a highly regarded QB that did worse in year 1.

I'm still at a loss as to what you think this actually means.  I'm not making an "it's impossible!" argument here, so a cherry picked single example isn't really evidence of anything meaningful.

Yes, it's an observable, verifiable fact that almost every QB in the NFL at current, and certainly all the top QB's, complete a material portion more of their passes than Zach Wilson.

Are you saying you do not see his very low completion rate as an issue or concern or even being worthy of discussion?

37 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

and since you were talking about looking week to week, i showed his first week season 2.

All the same points from above remain unanswered.

This line of argument isn't really relevant, as is has nothing to do with Zach, why his % is so low, or why he will or will not improve it, or how long it might take him to improve it.

I'll give you a similar argument to the one you're making here:

Brad Pitt slept with Jennifer Aniston. 

Hence, clearly, my lack of sleeping with Jennifer Anniston so far isn't an issue, because Brad did it. 

So clearly it's possible I will too.  So possible I shouldn't even worry about not having done it yet, it's such a sure thing.

37 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

it seems like some people would rather have their team's QB bust as to not prove them wrong. 

How is my fact-based opinion that Zach Wilson's completion percentage is too low so far in his career, and my hope that he will improve it equal to "hoping he busts"?

If by "some people" you mean me, since it's me you're exchanging posts with, I would very strongly disagree with your claim above.

I'm wrong all the time, and own those wrongs when they occur.  The Jets Winning > Being Right on the Internet.

With that said, I like to both Win AND Be Right on the Internet.  These are not mutually exclusive things. 

For us to win more against better competition, Zach will need to complete more of his passes.

I would argue that someone who doesn't care about his completion percentage, either does not understand the game, or doesn't actually care if we win against better competition.  "Just be happy" is a simpletons argument.

 

[k-met57]

18 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I’ll watch the rest of the video when I get home, but Zach’s biggest challenge is going to be shaving a full second off of his time to throw. As Warner shows (in the part that I watched) there are easy, quick throws to be made, but Wilson isn’t making those reads and every play becomes an adventure. In his stellar fourth quarter against the Steelers, his time to throw was 2.49 seconds (well below his average in the game of 3.31). He just has to pull the trigger and stop ******* around

is it possible that was was holding the ball because the steelers were blitzing this sh*t out of him and he had to scramble before he could even find a quick read to throw to? context matters.

while Wilson clearly needs to improve his short throw accuracy, warner sounds like the type of evaluator that passed on mahomes because he "made things too difficult for no reason".

[David Harris]

Excellent analysis, Pretty concerning about Michael Lafeur

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, Irktusk1957 said:

In his stellar fourth quarter against the Steelers, his time to throw was 2.49 seconds (well below his average in the game of 3.31). He just has to pull the trigger and stop ******* around

And to think after your comment above I literally thought:

“And what happened, then? Well, in Whoville they say – that the Grinch's small heart grew three sizes that day."

But you reverted back to the guy we know and sometimes love...

 

Please refer to the context of the post you quoted

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, k-met57 said:

is it possible that was was holding the ball because the steelers were blitzing this sh*t out of him and he had to scramble before he could even find a quick read to throw to? context matters.

while Wilson clearly needs to improve his short throw accuracy, warner sounds like the type of evaluator that passed on mahomes because he "made things too difficult for no reason".

It wasn’t an outlier game, however. Zach Wilson had the highest time to throw among QBs who don’t actively run the ball last season. He was also one of the worst QBs in football both against the blitz and against man to man defense last season. Generally speaking, your time to throw should get quicker when the defense is blitzing you because blitzing leaves open receivers, as Warner laid out in his video.

[Ghost420]

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Ooh man. Which team? 

Broncos seem like a good one for you.

[T0mShane]

11 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

Broncos seem like a good one for you.

Eh. Hated Elway. I always thought that if I wasn’t a Jets fan, I’d either be a 49ers or Bears fan. Grew up watching Montana and Lott and thought that team was as good as football could be for a professional franchise. The Bears, I just like their sassiness and I’ve always meant to visit Chicago. 

[hawk]

**** Kurt Warner, I was told in the game thread that the throw on the pick six was Conklins fault, the oline sucked and he had to change his arm angle.

I was also told that the oline sucked and what could Zack do, such as on the first pass of this video.

Also, did Warner say to dumb it down in the beginning?  I couldn't watch the whole thing, but is the OC asking Zach to do more than White, or Johnson last year?  Flacco this year?

[Biggs]

Lafleur is a very inexperienced OC.  We have two very young starting WR.  Warner was spectacular at delivering the ball in a highly complex O with great veteran WRs and highly experienced OC.  
 

I think Zach hasn’t been helped last year or this year to date.   He did move the ball down the field at a reasonable clip for a solid NFL QB in game 1 this year.  7 yards per attempt is solid.  Guys with 65% completion percentages are around that number.  

[Irktusk1957]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Please refer to the context of the post you quoted

You did say "stellar" (about Zach Wilson) and that is all the context I needed. Thanks for that.

[batman10023]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'm still at a loss as to what you think this actually means.  I'm not making an "it's impossible!" argument here, so a cherry picked single example isn't really evidence of anything meaningful.

Yes, it's an observable, verifiable fact that almost every QB in the NFL at current, and certainly all the top QB's, complete a material portion more of their passes than Zach Wilson.

Are you saying you do not see his very low completion rate as an issue or concern or even being worthy of discussion?

All the same points from above remain unanswered.

This line of argument isn't really relevant, as is has nothing to do with Zach, why his % is so low, or why he will or will not improve it, or how long it might take him to improve it.

I'll give you a similar argument to the one you're making here:

Brad Pitt slept with Jennifer Aniston. 

Hence, clearly, my lack of sleeping with Jennifer Anniston so far isn't an issue, because Brad did it. 

So clearly it's possible I will too.  So possible I shouldn't even worry about not having done it yet, it's such a sure thing.

How is my fact-based opinion that Zach Wilson's completion percentage is too low so far in his career, and my hope that he will improve it equal to "hoping he busts"?

If by "some people" you mean me, since it's me you're exchanging posts with, I would very strongly disagree with your claim above.

I'm wrong all the time, and own those wrongs when they occur.  The Jets Winning > Being Right on the Internet.

With that said, I like to both Win AND Be Right on the Internet.  These are not mutually exclusive things. 

For us to win more against better competition, Zach will need to complete more of his passes.

I would argue that someone who doesn't care about his completion percentage, either does not understand the game, or doesn't actually care if we win against better competition.  "Just be happy" is a simpletons argument.

 

How am I cherry picking.  I used every game of Allen’s first season and his first game of second season.   Exactly the same as Zach.   Rookies often have bad years.  You seem to ignore this point. 
 

of course I care about his completion percentage and yard per attempt. 
 

I don’t know if he’s going to be good but he was trending higher last year and did okay his first game. 

[T0mShane]

11 minutes ago, Irktusk1957 said:

You did say "stellar" (about Zach Wilson) and that is all the context I needed. Thanks for that.

It was stellar. @Jet Nut was claiming that the other three quarters were also good. The other three quarters were not stellar. 

[Jet Nut]

25 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It was stellar. @Jet Nut was claiming that the other three quarters were also good. The other three quarters were not stellar. 

Find where I said that.  
Thing is, I’m not butt hurt and bitching that ZW looks improved. Not comparing him to veterans that he’s better than.  Clinging onto the hope that MW can recreate his one moment in time.

[Irktusk1957]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

It was stellar. @Jet Nut was claiming that the other three quarters were also good. The other three quarters were not stellar. 

Jet Nut is a good, faithful NY Jet fan. Don't micro his posts like some. Somebody had a 10-0 lead in the early 2nd quarter.

Curious, has Mike White ever caught a TD pass?

[BornJetsFan1983]

On 10/6/2022 at 3:25 PM, pointman said:

I am watching it now. Warner gives a really nice film room breakdown. LaFleur knows the game but not how a player of Kurt's caliber knows on field reads. All Kurt is saying is that Zach isn't making the better read that is there for him. Basically, he is doing good but could be doing better. 

Well I agree with that you seen him not see the open guys all the time. There usually an easier throw to make every play scheme open players abound. It's quite refreshing 

 

[FootballLove]

Man playing QB is pretty hard actually.

When LeFleur sends 4 or 5 guys out into a pattern plus 5 or 6 defenders that's A LOT of bodies running around that any QB has to decipher in under 2 seconds. Then align his feet and make a perfect toss. Every time. Over and over.

Having chemistry with is WRs is crucial too. If Garrett runs an 18 yard in, the throw to Garrett will be a bit different than say if Corey Davis is running that exact same 18 yrd in. Or Moore. Or Conklin. Yikes.

Seems like LeFleur is trying to simplify things for Zack by giving him a true #1 read and having the rest of the WRs run routes that clears out coverage for that true #1, making it as easy as possible for Zack to hit his first read. According to Kurt Warner it's when Zack's true #1 read is taken away, those other guys aren't running routes that give Zack an easy #2 throw.