NY Jets Sign Dalvin Cook

[EM31]

I hope there is enough time for Cook to get up to game speed.  Clearly if Hall progresses as we all hope then we need Cook more in the first game than we will in the 10th.

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

You mean based on absolutely nothing but every single piece of evidence that currently exists?

Hall has yet to take a single practice snap, not even been cleared for the active roster, and the Jets felt a need to sign a starting-caliber player when already having RB draft picks from each of the 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts, and another back who started 4 games last year.

Quite literally all indications are that he's not currently on pace to play in the immediate future, regardless of whether you choose to ignore that all.

 

And the track record of RBs the year following his injury is so poor no one should want Breece to be active on Week 1.  I'd be perfectly happy not seeing him until Week 6-8. 

Let him take his time getting used to trusting his knees again and be healthy for the stretch run when we'll need him most.

[Adoni Beast]

This obviously helps Hall rest and fully recover for midseason, and even if Hall is 100% by Week 1, it’s a great 1-2 punch for a long season.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

So by your reasoning, OJ is innocent and should also be signed if he passes the physical?
 

He is a convicted felon, so bad example.
 

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

Also surprised the Pats cut Hernandez before his conviction-were they uninformed or misinformed?

Pats didn’t get their intel from social media, first of all. Second of all, they are free to do as they wish. I’m staying that I don’t lead lynch mobs from my uniformed sofa.

[Mogglez]

12 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Happy birthday, bud!

 

12 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Happy birthday, friend! 

 

12 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

Happy Birthday bud!

 

12 hours ago, T0mShane said:

After 30 years and six months your ability to recover from injury goes away and everything you do to your body from there on out stays with you forever, so get all the wild sh*t out of your system in the next six months.

 

11 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

Hawt

 

 

 

Happy birthday!

 

11 hours ago, CTJetsFan said:

Happy Birthday! Your inside info posts are a must read.

Cheers!

Thank you all so much 🥹💙‼️

@T0mShane what you’re saying is that we have 6 months to check off everything in our Kama Sutra book, right?

[Biggs]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

So by your reasoning, OJ is innocent and should also be signed if he passes the physical?  

Also surprised the Pats cut Hernandez before his conviction-were they uninformed or misinformed?

Are you talking prime OJ or current OJ?

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you all so much 🥹💙‼️

@T0mShane what you’re saying is that we have 6 months to check off everything in our Kama Sutra book, right?

Buddy, you burned through all your orifice-centered elasticity during your bridge-and-tunnel club era so we’re all good regardless. 

[GreenFish]

This team is pretty stacked across most position groups.

OT being the only question mark.

 

[Bowles Movement]

38 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Are you talking prime OJ or current OJ?

Im talking the OJ that killed Nicole and got away with it.

[Larz]

Nania

 

🚨 Complete Dalvin Cook summary: All of the positives and negatives he brings to the #Jets.

I'm basically dropping an entire article's worth of stuff here. Let's do this. Buckle up.

🧑‍🍳We'll start with the GOOD. 🧑‍🍳

- Still has elite breakaway speed. Per NGS he hit a top speed of 21.68 mph on the long TD vs. Buffalo, the 3rd-fastest top speed reached by any RB in 2022, one spot behind Breece.

- Still a great breakaway play threat who turns doubles to triples and triples to home runs. Averaged 28.7 yards per breakaway run (15+ yard runs) in 2022, the best mark among the 18 RBs with at least 10 breakaway runs.

- Ranked 3rd among 26 RBs (10+ screen targets) with 10.4 yards per reception on screen plays, with 146 yds on 14 catches. Worth noting that nearly half of those yards (64) came on one play vs. Colts (goes down to 6.3 if you take that out), but this is something he's been consistent at over the years; he's ranked top-4 in this category in three of the past four seasons.

- Ranked 12th of 42 RBs (100+ carries) with 3.18 yards after contact per carry. Got a lot of these yards in massive chunks on his breakaway runs rather than consistently grinding them out at the end of runs, but still, he showed he maintains the ability to run through weak arm tackles and hit top gear for home runs.

- Elusiveness no longer elite but still above average. Ranked 17th of 42 RBs with 0.192 missed tackles forced per carry. 51 MTF on 265 carries.

- Cook has a career-long tendency to play his best in September and gradually decline as the season goes on, until hitting a wall when the new year comes. This makes him an ideal fit for what the Jets need him to do: let Breece ease in early and then pass the torch to a fresh Breece at some point during the season.

📉 Cook's career yards per touch by month:

September: 5.38
October: 5.24
November: 5.19
December: 5.16
January (regular season): 3.52
Playoffs: 3.37

📉 Cook's numbers in 2022:

Sep-Oct: 5.12 YPT, 4.92 yards per carry
Nov-Dec: 4.81 YPT, 4.22 YPC
Jan. (Reg+Playoff): 3.43 YPT, 3.54 YPC

Seems like the perfect guy to run into the ground early and then push onto the back burner when he starts running out of gas mid-season.

🚩 🚩 Now let's acknowledge the red flags.

1⃣ Concern #1: Highly mistake-prone RB when it comes to fumbles, drops, and pass blocking.

- Tied for sixth among RBs with 4 fumbles in 2022. All 4 were lost, which led the position. (Side note: He's oddly prone to losing his fumbles. 77% of his career fumbles were lost. Likely a fluke, but worth noting anyway.)

- Had 4 drops, resulting in a 9.3% drop rate, which ranked 34th of 43 qualified RBs (30+ targets). Most notably dropped a potential game-winning TD in Buffalo but was bailed out by a penalty.

- Allowed 9 pressures on 54 true pass set snaps, a pressure rate of 16.7% that ranked 19th out of 25 RBs with 20+ TPS snaps. Was the worst rate among the 11 RBs who had 30+ TPS snaps.

These are long-established issues that have persisted throughout his career. Cook leads all RBs with a combined total of 61 fumbles + drops + allowed pressures since 2019.

This problem holds up even if you contextualize by accounting for how many snaps he's played. Cook has fumbled, dropped a pass, or allowed pressure on 2.24% of his offensive snaps since 2019, ranking 24th among the 25 RBs with 1,500+ snaps. Only Melvin Gordon is worse.

Tied with Gordon for lead among RBs with 16 fumbles since 2019. Coming on 1,245 touches, his 1.29% fumble rate is sixth-worst among the 31 RBs with at least 500 touches over that span.

2⃣ Concern #2: Very poor advanced rushing metrics in 2022.

- Out of the 42 running backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 39th in EPA per rush (-0.20) and 35th in DVOA (-10.8%).

This tells us his seemingly impressive yardage totals are misleading. His actual impact on the game as a rusher was quite poor when accounting for down/distance/field position on every play, and how the results of his plays affected the team's chances of scoring on the drive.

YPC overvalues big plays and doesn't properly account for things like consistently getting chunk gains to stay ahead of the chains or succeeding on short-yardage. Advanced metrics like EPA and DVOA properly value those things.

- The disparity between Cook's gaudy yardage numbers and his poor advanced metrics exists because Cook lived off his big plays and was very ineffective outside of those. 

Outside of Cook's 12 breakaway runs (15+ yards) for 344 yards, Cook had 252 carries for 829 yards on all of his other attempts. That's just 3.29 yards per carry. Among the 33 running backs with at least 150 total carries, Cook's 3.29 YPC on non-breakaway runs ranked 24th.

- Cook was extremely prone to getting stuffed. Of Cook’s 264 carries, 62 of them resulted in no gain or a loss. That’s a stuff rate of 23.5%, which ranked third-worst among the 42 running backs with at least 100 carries.

- Cook was also bad at short-yardage. He converted only 9 of his 16 attempts with 1 yard to go, a 56.3% rate that ranked 38th of the 39 RBs with 10+ attempts in that situation. League average was 73.2%.

3⃣ Concern #3: Cook's inefficiency came despite benefiting from good support in Minnesota.

When a RB gets stuffed frequently or struggles in short yardage, it's up to debate as to whether the RB himself or the OL deserves more blame. In this case, most signs point strongly to Cook deserving most of the blame.

Reason #1 is Cook faced a loaded box (more defenders than blockers) on just 15.5% of his carries – the lowest rate among running backs with at least 100 carries. With a good QB and arguably the best WR in football, Cook enjoyed a favorable environment with plenty of room to run, but he still got stuffed frequently.

Maybe it's the OL's fault? Well, there isn't a single stat out there that suggests the Vikings' OL was bad enough to warrant the 3rd-worst stuff rate or 2nd-worst conversion rate with 1 yard to go.

PFF had the Vikings at 3rd-best in run blocking grade, NGS had Cook at 10th/42 RBs in expected YPC (what he's expected to gain based on blocking), and ESPN's run block win rate had the Vikings 18th. Average the three rankings together and you can estimate MIN likely had something around the 10th-best run blocking. 

Yes, all three stats are flawed (esp PFF), but if every stat says the Vikings' run blocking was not terrible, then it's probably true. Meaning the high stuff rate is most likely Cook's fault.

Cook's film proves it. Watching his stuffed runs, I saw plenty of examples where Cook could have had a solid chunk gain but got himself stuffed through a combination of 1) bad vision, 2) over-seeking big plays (drawing runs out looking for the breakaway window instead of putting his head down and taking what's there), or 3) most concerningly, somewhat sluggish runs that suggested his change-of-direction quickness and finishing power are declining.

I thought it sometimes took him just an extra step or two to execute a cut that he may have made more quickly and sharply in his prime. And at the contact point of runs, I thought he frequently got brought down fairly easily and didn't pack much of a punch to grind out those extra few yards at the end. There were flashes of those traits still being there, you'll see it on his highlight reel, but he did not look special in those areas as consistently as he once did.

His elite straight-line speed is still there (or at least it was last year, who knows when he'll hit the wall), but other physical traits looked like they may already be on the way down. Perhaps the shoulder surgery helps him recover some of the power, but we shall see.

🤔 Other concerns: Questionable future trajectory as a 28-year-old RB with 1.5k career touches. Efficiency has already declined to new lows in two straight seasons (back-to-back career lows in yards per touch, for example). Durability questions: missed multiple games in each of first five seasons until last year.

🙏 Hopeful outlook: Ideally, I'd like to see Cook give the Jets some top-tier home run hitting early in the season while Breece slowly ramps up. Then pass the baton to a fresh Breece when he's ready, giving the offense a jolt for the playoff push.

I'm concerned about Cook's drop/fumble/block issues. Impossible not to be until he proves otherwise. 

With that said, knowing he 1) has a tendency to start hot, 2) is fresh thanks to no camp/practice workload, and 3) he's got a newly repaired shoulder, and 4) should be highly motivated playing for a SB with Rodgers in a contract year, I have cautious optimism he can start red-hot with an elite rate of home runs while he's still fresh, making him worth the while even if he is lackluster in other areas.

Then once Breece takes over, hopefully a diminished workload can preserve Cook's efficiency as we enter the part of the year where he usually falls off. He's never gotten the chance to be a secondary guy before. Perhaps he can thrive in that role at this stage of his career.

Hoping for the best.

- End of tweet -

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, Bowles Movement said:

Im talking the OJ that killed Nicole and got away with it.

I don't think that OJ would have moved the needle so no.  

[Maynard13]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We need a RB capable of catching passes on this roster.  Cook and Bam really aren't that. 

I'm no fan of MC but we need his services on 3rd down.  

Aki has good hands, right?

[Bowles Movement]

45 minutes ago, jgb said:

He is a convicted felon, so bad example.
 

Pats didn’t get their intel from social media, first of all. Second of all, they are free to do as they wish. I’m staying that I don’t lead lynch mobs from my uniformed sofa.

1   You know what I was referring to and it wasnt the Vegas break in.   So bad response.

2.   Where did you get your intel on where the Pats got their intel?  Was it your uninformed sofa?

[Maynard13]

43 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

This team is pretty stacked across most position groups.

OT being the only question mark.

 

LB…S….OT…..Back up QB

[JetsRay]

2 hours ago, JetsRay said:

Duane Brown has also not practiced as of yet and is working himself back from injury, also hasn't taken a single snap, or has been cleared, there are numerous cases of players that are starters that may be coming back from injury and use the first part of training camp to get themselves ready. The team has also said Brown will be ready to go. This happens all over the league, this is not something new.

The signing of Cook doesn't mean Hall won't be ready, that is the take, and there is NO evidence otherwise to this point.

Welp...

https://twitter.com/NYJetsTFMedia/status/1691465852657496064?s=20

[jgb]

14 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

1   You know what I was referring to and it wasnt the Vegas break in.   So bad response.

I construe ambiguity or uncertainty in a question against the asker. It was your example. Try again if you wish.

14 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

2.   Where did you get your intel on where the Pats got their intel?  Was it your uninformed sofa?

You missed the crux. They are free to make any choice they want, for good or poor reasons. But that has no impact on my moral code, nor what I would do. And as I understand, Hernandez denied certain facts to Kraft which were quickly shown to indeed be true and thus he was fired for his lack of honesty and credibility.

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Aki has good hands, right?

Probably but rookies typically have issues with drops and fumbles regardless.  

[neckdemon]

5 hours ago, nyjets1969 said:

It's clear Hall isn't ready to play so I doubt anybody is getting trade or put on the PS. Hall will start out season on PuP list and the rest will work itself out you might even see Cook gone by week 6. But it's likely Hall might be out for the entire season these injuries sometimes takes 2 years to fully come back from. 

This aged poorly.

[JKlecko]

13 hours ago, Maxman said:

It is definitely between them. I don't know the answer to this, but do they have control over Bam contract wise for longer than Carter? That could be a factor.

Another factor and people will think I am messing around but I am not. Michael Carter is apparently the funniest guy on the team. He is always making everyone laugh. Talent on the field is the deciding factor, but if you are looking at RB4, something locker room related like that could be a factor.

Good point about Carter.  Helping the locker room stay loose and fun, definitely helps. Bam may be able to make it to the PS, whereas I don't think Carter could.

[RutgersJetFan]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

Im talking the OJ that killed Nicole and got away with it.

Oh whoa I could have sworn you were talking about OJ Mayo

[Bowles Movement]

12 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Oh whoa I could have sworn you were talking about OJ Mayo

No   I was talking about OJ and Vodka.

[BornJetsFan1983]

3 hours ago, Mogglez said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you all so much 🥹💙‼️

@T0mShane what you’re saying is that we have 6 months to check off everything in our Kama Sutra book, right?

is it too late to wish you a happy b day? Happy B day!

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

Im talking the OJ that killed Nicole and got away with it.

Elusiveness rating:  Off the charts

[Maxman]

46 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Oh whoa I could have sworn you were talking about OJ Mayo

I was thinking OJ Anderson.

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Maxman said:

I was thinking OJ Anderson.

Or OJ Da Juiceman.

[slimjasi]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And the track record of RBs the year following his injury is so poor no one should want Breece to be active on Week 1.  I'd be perfectly happy not seeing him until Week 6-8. 

Let him take his time getting used to trusting his knees again and be healthy for the stretch run when we'll need him most.

As long as he's cooking by December, we are good to go. 

The word was that his ACL tear was about as minor as it could possibly be considering it was a tear. So, considering his age and the fact that it happened back in October, I DO think there is a chance he is ballin much earlier than that. It does look like they tentatively intend to play him week 1, which is saying something. But we'll see. 

I'm all about being extra cautious. The cook move really lets us be patient early. 

[Rangers9]

If it's really true that Rodgers gave up 30 mil of his contract then you have to give him some of the credit for this signing. 

[slimjasi]

19 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Or OJ Da Juiceman.

Honestly, the first non OJ Simpson OJ I thought of was this guy

 

 

Random, I know. Always liked his game. 

[TheAustrian]

I like this addition... hope it works out for us.. lets go!

[Barry McCockinner]

 

[JetsRay]

6 hours ago, Mogglez said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you all so much 🥹💙‼️

@T0mShane what you’re saying is that we have 6 months to check off everything in our Kama Sutra book, right?

Happy Birthday pal!

[Greenseed4]

Happy Birthday, yesterday,  Moggs!

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

 

Twitter sports commentator: wat if i just talked into my phone like macho man savage literally all of the time

American sports fans: oh hell yeah love the energy

[Rhg1084]

[Greenseed4]

7 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Do one for Expected rushing yards, Expected TDs, and Expected ball security. 

You'll see that when you use futuristic made-up stats he's actually not good at all.