Bowers vs. Kincaid

[JetsFlyer]

C'mon people his combine numbers are off the charts.... nowhere to be found on the charts.. so what makes him special?

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

The fact that matters about Brock Bowers is; he looked to be, head and shoulders, the best player in college Football, playing on the best team in college Football, dominating the best conference in college Football.   You might not like this that and the other about Brock Bowers or that he plays TE and that's fine but the fact is, he was that good.  He was playing like the best offensive play maker in the game and the best college TE of all time.  

One billion percent... before he got banged he was legit on the road to Heisman trophy

[Jack Straw]

24 minutes ago, derp said:

Look at Pitts’ per game production his junior year - only against SEC teams - then show me when Bowers produced at that level on a game in game out basis.

All this proves is that sample size matters. Pitts' 8 games are great but it's still not enough to justify using a top 10 pick on a TE. Go look at an 8-12 game sample of Chad Pennington in 2002 and you'd think he was going to be Joe Montana. Zooming out provides a clearer picture of the truth.

Bowers' injured his foot against Vanderbilt in 2023, which affected his stats during that game. He returned from that injury in just 26 days, and was clearly hobbled by the foot for the rest of the season (see Alabama game). Before the injury, Bowers played three SEC schools:

South Carolina: 7/54/0
Auburn: 8/157/1
Kentucky: 7/132/1

But besides that, Bowers' has 40 games of college production, and of those games, I'd estimate that 20+ were elite performances (ie, he caught 5+ passes and/or had 60+ yards and/or had a TD.). Doing that over three years in the SEC is more impressive than any 8 game stretch.

[CTJetsFan]

15 minutes ago, slats said:

He won’t be more productive than a number of WRs who go after him. I’ll make that prediction right now. 

I would tend to agree but time will tell.

I was just responding to you saying that he would need to be an all-time great to justify the pick. I thought that bar was too high.

[WhartonJet]

42 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Were u badiness over at ji?

No, I was MojoJet over there 

[Paradis]

22 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

And if we're gambling on upside, Bowers doesn't have the freakish athleticism of Njoku or Pitts or Howard - yes it didn't work out for those teams, but at least I understand the gamble. 

Not necessarily related to this discussion, but we are in era that overvalues metrics/overt athleticism in an attempt to increase the likelihood of success in prospect evaluation. The sport is a billion dollar cash machine and a team on fire is basically just printing money.. In support of that, we've also turned the entire offseason into a track meet. 

My point? Treading water in this convo is ability to actually be good at football - not just a gangbanger with speed. That leg up disappears in the NFL. 

[Doggin94it]

3 hours ago, WhartonJet said:

How does Bowers compare as a prospect to Dalton Kincaid from last year's draft?  I remember wanting Kincaid at 15 because I thought he would be a weapon on offense.  Very fluid pass catcher with a knack for getting open.  Kincaid came in and had a solid rookie season for Buffalo (73 catches, 673 yards, 2 TDs).  Kincaid ended up being picked 25th.

Brock Bowers college stats:

	Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	Georgia					175	2538	14.5	26	19	193	10.2	5	194	2731	14.1	31
*2021	Georgia	SEC	FR	TE	15	56	882	15.8	13	4	56	14.0	1	60	938	15.6	14
*2022	Georgia	SEC	SO		15	63	942	15.0	7	9	109	12.1	3	72	1051	14.6	10
*2023	Georgia	SEC	SR	TE	10	56	714	12.8	6	6	28	4.7	1	62	742	12.0	7

 

Dalton Kincaid college stats:

						Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	Utah					107	1414	13.2	16	1	4	4.0	0	108	1418	13.1	16
2020	Utah	Pac-12	JR	TE	5	1	14	14.0	0	0	0		0	1	14	14.0	0
*2021	Utah	Pac-12	JR	TE	14	36	510	14.2	8	1	4	4.0	0	37	514	13.9	8
*2022	Utah	Pac-12	SR		12	70	890	12.7	8	0	0		0	70	890	12.7	8

 

Obviously, Bowers did this in the SEC and came in and produced as a freshman on a loaded Georgia team while Kincaid came on later in his college career in the PAC-12.  I think everyone can agree Bowers is a much higher level prospect given his production against elite competition, so I don't understand why some people don't think he warrants the 10th pick in the draft.  I'd have no reservations taking him there.

Yep, you've convinced me. If WhartonJet wanted Kincaid at 15, then clearly Bowers is worth taking at 10

[Matt39]

6 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Not necessarily related to this discussion, but we are in era that overvalues metrics/overt athleticism in an attempt to increase the likelihood of success in prospect evaluation. The sport is a billion dollar cash machine and a team on fire is basically just printing money.. In support of that, we've also turned the entire offseason into a track meet. 

My point? Treading water in this convo is ability to actually be good at football - not just a gangbanger with speed. That leg up disappears in the NFL. 

Gesicki fits that

[Sonny Werblin]

Pick an OT at 10 or trade back. I don't care how good Bowers is. If the QB is getting planted into the dirt, John Mackey could be at TE and it wouldn't matter.

[RedBeardedSavage]

14 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Not necessarily related to this discussion, but we are in era that overvalues metrics/overt athleticism in an attempt to increase the likelihood of succcess in a prospect evaluation. The sport is a billion dollar cash machine and a team on fire is basically just printing money.. In support of that, we've also turned the entire offseason into a track meet. 

My point? Treading water in this convo is ability to actually be good at football - not just a gangbanger with speed. That leg up disappears in the NFL. 

I think it applies here and it's a fair point.

But when I'm thinking of the best players of the past twenty years (quarterback excluded, because that's just different), that small group is disproportionately populated by freaks - Megatron, King Henry, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Julio, Revis, Gronk, AP, Kelce.

I feel like the argument in Brock's favor is that he has a high floor and is unlikely to bust based on his pure football skill.

But I also feel like his upside is the level of one of these: Cooley/Dallas Clark/Laporta/Kittle.

I'd say, just based on his stature alone, he'll never be Gronk, Kelce or Tony G. But he's getting those comps, by some. 

If he's Kittle, that's great. I love Kittle. Kittle is also 20 lbs heavier and maybe the best run-blocking TE in the league? Genuinely, is that a realistic outcome for Brock?

I'd rather just take a good offensive line prospect and directly support the freak I already have on the roster - Breece Hall. 

[GangGreeninBetween]

2 hours ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

Kincaid is more Brent Jones or Jay Novaceck 

Bowers is a faster Gonzalez and a faster Kelce.

Again Bowers is possibly the best non qb player in the entire draft. It would be incredibly stupid to pass on him

" bUt tEs DoNT maKe A bIG iMpAcT" is the dumbest rhetoric yet when trying to apply it to Bowers. 

Faster Gonzalez (1st Ballot HoF, arguably #1 TE of All-Time) and faster Kelce (Future 1st Ballot HoFer, probably top 5 All-Time when hes done)

If any of this is true, which I dont think it is, Bowers won't be there at 10.

[Jet Nut]

17 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Gesicki fits that

Lots of athletes do.  
Arguing that a college player, any player has to be the freakiest athlete to be an all time player is pointless. Someone mentioned Njoku.  He proves this. 

[Gastineau Lives]

6 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think it applies here and it's a fair point.

But when I'm thinking of the best players of the past twenty years (quarterback excluded, because that's just different), that small group is disproportionately populated by freaks - Megatron, King Henry, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Julio, Revis, Gronk, AP, Kelce.

I feel like the argument in Brock's favor is that he has a high floor and is unlikely to bust based on his pure football skill.

But I also feel like his upside is the level of one of these: Cooley/Dallas Clark/Laporta/Kittle.

I'd say, just based on his stature alone, he'll never be Gronk, Kelce or Tony G. But he's getting those comps, by some. 

If he's Kittle, that's great. I love Kittle. Kittle is also 20 lbs heavier and maybe the best run-blocking TE in the league? Genuinely, is that a realistic outcome for Brock?

I'd rather just take a good offensive line prospect and directly support the freak I already have on the roster - Breece Hall. 

Actually, he’s seven pounds heavier.

Kittle was 247 at the combine at an inch taller, which was 37 lbs heavier than he was as a freshman.

[Paradis]

13 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

But when I'm thinking of the best players of the past twenty years (quarterback excluded, because that's just different), that small group is disproportionately populated by freaks - Megatron, King Henry, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Julio, Revis, Gronk, AP, Kelce.

I'd say, just based on his stature alone, he'll never be Gronk, Kelce or Tony G. But he's getting those comps, by some. 

Personally i think he's earned the right to be thrown around with those names. Doesn't mean it's going to happen but he's been that good to date (this isn't a "We should take him" post)

RE: your list of freaks... Absolutely... yet, those are like 10 names out of a 1,000 names with freak profiles. the other 9,990 didn't make it. My point is only that freakish or not, you start with "how good is this guy really at the game of football, and how much is just a product of being faster/more athletic than the future Walmart Electronics Manager he's going up against"

[Rolloffjet]

Im glad bowers didnt test at the combine or pro day. So he slips to us. His film shows everything you need to know. Draft this stud! 

[RedBeardedSavage]

11 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Personally i think he's earned the right to be thrown around with those names. Doesn't mean it's going to happen but he's been that good to date (this isn't a "We should take him" post)

Who would you take? And genuinely, are you at all concerned about the disproportionate amount of screens/yac being this kid's game and whether or not that will translate?

Always respect your knowledge, you know this. 

Quote

RE: your list of freaks... Absolutely... yet, those are like 10 names out of a 1,000 names with freak profiles. the other 9,990 didn't make it. My point is only, that freakish or not, you start with "how good is this guy really at the game of football, and how much is just product of being faster than the future Walmart Electronics Manager he's going up against"

I take that point, often the biggest busts are the great athletic profiles with skill/will deficiencies.

But even if we look at our team currently, again excluding QB (because that position is different and #8 hasn't done anything for us yet), three of our four best players are freaks/outliers: Breece, Quinnen and Sauce. Garrett's not a freak, although he did have an excellent combine. 

I worry that Brock was running away and over those same future Walmart employees in college, and that it won't be like that in the NFL.

[Jack Straw]

1 hour ago, slats said:

He won’t be more productive than a number of WRs who go after him. I’ll make that prediction right now. 

Agreed. I also predict that Taliese Fuaga will have fewer rushing yards than Jonathan Brooks.

[Jack Straw]

17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Lots of athletes do.  
Arguing that a college player, any player has to be the freakiest athlete to be an all time player is pointless. Someone mentioned Njoku.  He proves this. 

Njoku didn't have any college production. Brock Bowers' freshman year > Njoku's entire collegiate career combined.

[Gastineau Lives]

1 hour ago, JetsFlyer said:

C'mon people his combine numbers are off the charts.... nowhere to be found on the charts.. so what makes him special?

You know they do a little thing called playing football games. Happens from September to January. What you’re looking for is the Olympics track and field competition. 
 

It’s ok I understand. When I go to a new restaurant I don’t try the food. I just ask to see the chef crack eggs or debone a chicken.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Agreed. I also predict that Taliese Fuaga will have fewer rushing yards than Jonathan Brooks.

Don’t think Fuaga is being billed as an OL/RB, but sure. 

[thebuzzardman]

3 hours ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

This won't happen but if Bowers and Odunze slipped to Buffalo, Buffalo would run to the podium like a meth addict and take Bowers. They would then run 2 and 3 te sets until the cows come home and win multiple super bowls 

Bowers is the best player in the draft. He's a weapon. Stop the lunacy and just take Bowers. I personally don't even think he'll make it to ten. But ppl are extremely stupid 

Why stop at 3 TE sets? Why not 4?

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, thebuzzardman said:

Why stop at 3 TE sets? Why not 4?

Why not 9 offensive lineman? We can have the wall.

[GreenFish]

4 hours ago, WhartonJet said:

I'm a huge fan of Brock Bowers and think he should be the pick at 10, but "best college TE of all time" sounds like the kind of hyberbole you are railing against in your first paragraph

Was going to say the same thing about his post. Bashed people for making comparisons etc and then want on to do the same thing. lol

 

It’s the hyperbole with Bowers fans that gets me. He’s a good prospect. Going in the 1st round says as much. But when people start to say: Best athlete in the draft, best player in college football, carried Georgia on his back, can move him around and this and that…I cant help but think of:

Draft Hypes:

1) Jamal Adams: Swiss Army Knife

2) DeWayne Robertson: Bowling Ball with Butcher Knives

3) Quinnen Williams: Slippery Bar of Soap (Actually lived up to the hype)

4) Zach Wilson’s Throw that was heard around the world

There’s more. Those are the ones that came to mind. But others exist that we didn’t get a chance to draft.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Jack Straw said:

All this proves is that sample size matters. Pitts' 8 games are great but it's still not enough to justify using a top 10 pick on a TE. Go look at an 8-12 game sample of Chad Pennington in 2002 and you'd think he was going to be Joe Montana. Zooming out provides a clearer picture of the truth.

Bowers' injured his foot against Vanderbilt in 2023, which affected his stats during that game. He returned from that injury in just 26 days, and was clearly hobbled by the foot for the rest of the season (see Alabama game). Before the injury, Bowers played three SEC schools:

South Carolina: 7/54/0
Auburn: 8/157/1
Kentucky: 7/132/1

But besides that, Bowers' has 40 games of college production, and of those games, I'd estimate that 20+ were elite performances (ie, he caught 5+ passes and/or had 60+ yards and/or had a TD.). Doing that over three years in the SEC is more impressive than any 8 game stretch.

When the eight game sample is effectively on par with each of a player’s full seasons the sample size hand waving doesn’t quite work. You can cherry pick the eight best games from any of Bowers’ seasons and not get to that production.

The bold is a remarkably soft definition of an elite performance.

[nyjets1969]

Alt is not there at 10 trade back or take Bowers, Nabers, odunza rest tackles on board not a top 10 tackle they are projects or are RTs Alt is the only top 10 franchise LT hope JD doesn't reach for a OT like he did Becton rather him trade back if Alt isn't there and he is eying another OT. Like Bowers would not have problem taking him if Alt is gone.

[JetsFlyer]

2 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

You know they do a little thing called playing football games. Happens from September to January. What you’re looking for is the Olympics track and field competition. 
 

It’s ok I understand. When I go to a new restaurant I don’t try the food. I just ask to see the chef crack eggs or debone a chicken.

zzz, you know theres something called timed drills? why so scared???  again what makes him special in the nfl. why do scouts go to the combine please explain ?  

[SickJetFan]

6 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

I've been avoiding draft threads/topics as much as possible because we are in that stage during the stupid draft process where every moron in the world is making some stupid hot take that is completely and utterly illogical but hey, why not, and while I'm at it, peep this super original mock draft that I dont even believe will happen but nobody else had done it, so why not!  Besides, it doesnt matter if I get it wrong or right, I'm still an expert! 

Here is the fact about Brock Bowers that is all that matters and we dont need all these silly comparisons you want to make or draft proclamations you want to make or do and donts that you believe in or he better be this guy or that guy in the league.  That is all pure and utter stupidity.  The fact that matters about Brock Bowers is; he looked to be, head and shoulders, the best player in college Football, playing on the best team in college Football, dominating the best conference in college Football.   You might not like this that and the other about Brock Bowers or that he plays TE and that's fine but the fact is, he was that good.  He was playing like the best offensive play maker in the game and the best college TE of all time.  

You do what that what you may w/ that fact...but this is all that matters when talking about Brock Bowers.

with the best OC is college fb his 1st 2 seasons,,,then stats fall off a bit 2023 - just saying

[Gastineau Lives]

17 minutes ago, JetsFlyer said:

zzz, you know theres something called timed drills? why so scared???  again what makes him special in the nfl. why do scouts go to the combine please explain ?  

I don’t think the combine matters as much for the elite players as it does for the other 712 prospects. I could be wrong. 
 

Do you really think running in shorts around a cone is going to tell you something that game film doesn’t?

[JetsFlyer]

29 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I don’t think the combine matters as much for the elite players as it does for the other 712 prospects. I could be wrong. 
 

Do you really think running in shorts around a cone is going to tell you something that game film doesn’t?

why is he elite? im asking to be convinced 

[83Kelly2Allen18]

4 hours ago, GangGreeninBetween said:

Faster Gonzalez (1st Ballot HoF, arguably #1 TE of All-Time) and faster Kelce (Future 1st Ballot HoFer, probably top 5 All-Time when hes done)

If any of this is true, which I dont think it is, Bowers won't be there at 10.

It's very possible he's not. I personally think he's the best player in the draft 

[83Kelly2Allen18]

53 minutes ago, JetsFlyer said:

why is he elite? im asking to be convinced 

His production 

His production vs elite competition in the sec

The best player on the most talented team in the country the past 3 years 

Elite triangle numbers for the position 

Elite intangibles and instincts running routes and anticipating zones( maybe the best trait, and why guys like kelce are truly great)

Elite physicality 

Natural hands catcher

Adequate blocker which causes a nightmare because it puts the defense in conflict 

Can threaten every part of the field 

Above avg yac ability and can play in space. 

No character off the field issues 

Played all sports growing up 

Eye test is elite 

 

 

 

[HighPitch]

5 hours ago, WhartonJet said:

No, I was MojoJet over there 

Ahhhhhh. 👍 

[hawk]

8 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I don't think it would be a horrible pick at #10, but it would be a bit underwhelming to me and feel like a 3rd place trophy.  He's the best TE in a subpar TE class but I haven't heard a single person say that the Jets would need to move up for him, that teams might "jump the Jets" for Bowers, etc.  In a one-player TE Draft you'd expect to hear some of that.  He just doesn't seem to be targeted by anyone, nobody is eager to "go get him" and it would feel like a bit of a consolation prize.

Again, I don't think it would be a disaster pick, I guess I'm just hoping the Jets could do a lot better with the limited Draft capital they have this year in a Draft that is loaded at OL and WR (two positions of need and higher positional value that TE). JMHO.

I believe the only people that talk about a team looking to move up for a player is fans and media.  I don't know many GMs that come and say, I want to trade up for...

Most people feel #10 is too high for TE based on position not skill or potential impact.

WR position is a position of impact, so people talking about moving up for a player, even though it's a deep draft.

QB, same.

Pass rusher same.

If the Jets think that he is the best player available, and take him, I am all for it.  

That being said, and off topic from quote, Conklin is gone.  I don't think we taking him to be a back up.

What is his trade value, or is he just going to be cut?  

[Jet_Engine1]

6 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Yep, you've convinced me. If WhartonJet wanted Kincaid at 15, then clearly Bowers is worth taking at 10

[Doggin94it]

6 hours ago, Paradis said:

Personally i think he's earned the right to be thrown around with those names. Doesn't mean it's going to happen but he's been that good to date (this isn't a "We should take him" post)

RE: your list of freaks... Absolutely... yet, those are like 10 names out of a 1,000 names with freak profiles. the other 9,990 didn't make it. My point is only that freakish or not, you start with "how good is this guy really at the game of football, and how much is just a product of being faster/more athletic than the future Walmart Electronics Manager he's going up against"

This is where we part ways: I think it's effectively impossible for a college prospect to have earned the right to be thrown around with those names; that can only be done in the NFL.