Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

Slow down the Andrew Luck hype train?


36 posts in this topic

Posted · Report post

As he 

prepares

 for his third season in the NFL, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts is already 

regarded

 as one of the league’s premier quarterbacks. ESPN’s Mike Sando polled 26 NFL front-office and scouting types 

this month

, asking them to sort every current starting quarterback into one of five tiers; Luck was in the top group, ranking fifth overall.



In terms of justifications, the Colts’ record under Luck speaks for itself. Since installing Luck as its starting QB before his rookie season of 2012, the team has won nearly 69 percent of its games (posting a pair of 11-5 campaigns). Luck also looks like a prototypical quarterback. At 6 feet 3 inches tall and 235 pounds, Luck’s size jibes far more with the preconceived notion of what an elite QB should look like than, say, Seattle’s Russell Wilson (who stands 5 feet 11 inches). Further, Sando’s scouts are probably the same people who regarded Luck as “

the top quarterback prospect to come along in the past 30 years

” when he was at Stanford. 

Research

 in psychology has shown that it’s incredibly difficult to alter people’s first impressions, so it might have taken a 

for scouts to change their opinions about Luck’s potential superstardom.



In terms of individual statistics, however, Luck 

has hardly been

 a top-five quarterback. 

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

 (ANY/A) — which quantifies a quarterback’s passing efficiency while taking into account his touchdown passes, interceptions and sacks – ranks Luck

18th in the NFL

 over the past two seasons. He 

finished 16th

 in 2013. By that measure, Luck hasn’t even been an average passer thus far in his career.



Depending on the stat or the scout, Luck is mediocre or good. Or great. Or average.



luckranks.png?w=610&h=550

 


What’s going on?



Even by the standards of individual football statistics, ANY/A is a rough metric. It doesn’t account for strength of schedule, and it treats all yardage as equal regardless of the situation. Other metrics, like ESPN’s 

Total QBR

 (in which Luck ranked ninth a year ago) and 

Brian Burke’s

 

Expected Points Added

 (eighth) and 

Win Probability Added

 (sixth), regard Luck 

more highly

, suggesting that he’s performing well in QB rushing and clutch play, which conventional yardage-based passing metrics don’t effectively measure.



Indeed, Luck’s 

running game

 is often overlooked. In its 

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

 (DYAR) metric, Football Outsiders 

ranked

 Luck as the top rushing QB in the NFL last season. But even if we add Luck’s rushing DYAR to his passing tally over the past two seasons, he ranks 12th among quarterbacks in total value added above replacement.



The same goes for Pro Football Focus’s 

play-by-play grades

 — by their estimation, Luck was third among QBs in rushing value added above average. But those grades also rate Luck as barely better than an average QB as a passer. Again, if we combine passing and rushing (plus penalty avoidance) and convert those grades to assess 

value against replacement

 (instead of average), Luck has been the 14th-ranked quarterback over the past two seasons.



In both sets of value-over-replacement rankings, Luck narrowly places ahead of the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton, who makes for a particularly interesting point of comparison. Statistically, the two quarterbacks offered similar production a year ago, but their reputations couldn’t be more different. Luck is widely known as a “

winner

“; Newton has been dogged by criticism as a “

stat-padder

” who doesn’t deliver in big moments. Those sentiments probably played a large role when Sando’s execs placed Newton in the third tier despite having a quantitative résumé similar to Luck’s. Backing up that viewpoint, Christopher Price writes in Football Outsiders’ 

2014 Almanac

: “Newton is a very talented quarterback, but nobody in the league would take him over Andrew Luck right now.”



Of course, the biggest reason professed by the executives for their high placement of Luck was his team’s success despite a weak supporting cast, which gets at the fundamental limitations of evaluating individual NFL players with metrics and the eye test. “The evaluators think Luck has carried a subpar roster to a 22-10 record without much help,” Sando writes.



Football Outsiders has a great caveat about individual advanced stats that goes along these lines:



“In 2013, Andrew Luck had 650 DYAR. But what we are really saying is ‘In 2013, Andrew Luck, playing in Pep Hamilton’s offensive system with the Indianapolis offensive line blocking for him and Donald Brown and Trent Richardson providing rushing support, had 650 DYAR.’ “



The truth is that in football, perhaps more than any other sport, a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him. And the common perception is that Luck’s supporting cast is similar to that which went 2-14 with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins under center in 2011. That might not be entirely true, but it’s largely beyond our statistical capabilities to test assertions like those empirically.



We can attempt to measure the 

talent

 and 

experience level

 of isolated parts of an offense, but in the end we’re left with rough estimates. And what do we do if Luck’s early career ends up mirroring 

that of John Elway

 — a prestigious QB with surprisingly ordinary stats? We’ll be left wondering whether it was a coincidence if his stats jump when the 2024 versions of 

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey

 come along. (Or think of Tom Brady, the 

poster child

 for a quarterback’s statistical production not matching his reputation … 

until Randy Moss arrived

in New England.)



So, in a certain sense, we still don’t know how good Luck is. He’s probably better than his raw efficiency rates suggest, but maybe he’s not quite as good as his top-tier ranking among NFL scouts and executives. It’s a fuzzy picture of individual value that NFL fans have to settle for while we wait for new ways to more effectively disentangle players’ contributions from one another.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-good-is-andrew-luck/
 

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

You can make numbers do anything you want them to do. Bottomline, The most important stat is wins and losses my friend. Luck wins football games. Do I think the hype train is a bit too loud...yes. But Andrew Luck wins football games. 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

The truth is that in football, perhaps more than any other sport, a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him

 

weapinz ?

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

SlobberinAndrewLuck.gif

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

as a side note, how long has it been since a jets QB would show up in a top 20 stat ?

 

10 years ?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Can we trade Vick and Geno for him?

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

You can make numbers do anything you want them to do. Bottomline, The most important stat is wins and losses my friend. Luck wins football games. Do I think the hype train is a bit too loud...yes. But Andrew Luck wins football games.

"All I do is win win no matter what"

That's all that matters, end stats, save them for fantasy football opinions.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

"All I do is win win no matter what"

That's all that matters, end stats, save them for fantasy football opinions.

 

Wilson > Luck then?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

I hope after reading this article the Colts realize they habe an awful QB on hand  and CUT him. Then the JETS can acquire him because we like to collect mediocre players.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

 

That was a 4 win team after all the injuries they had. IMO

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

The AFC South sucks so some of his winning percentage is based on that but then dude had wins vs. 49'ers, Seahwaks and Broncos last year.  His stats arent astronomical but 23-9 TD vs. INT's is rock solid for a 2nd year player.  He's also had some injuries from a receiving perspective and a mediocre run game.  In terms of coming up big, that 2nd half vs. the Chiefs in playoffs. was unreal.  He was lights out.

 

Bottom line, the guy's really good and he's a baby.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

They are really wasting his talents with their power O BS.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Wilson > Luck then?

 

I have always thought so.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Wilson > Luck then?

Right now yea. Luck is 22-10, and set the record for most 4th quarter comebacks by a rookie with 7 so when he gets the same help from his D as Wilson has then we might revisit.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

 

Touché

I like the kid I think his hype is justified. I take his over the overbearing nonsense the Tim Tebow wave was.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Touché

I like the kid I think his hype is justified. I take his over the overbearing nonsense the Tim Tebow wave was.

 

Hi GATA.

 

I thought it was going to take a personal invite to get you posting again. Good thing it didn't come to that. That would be creepy. :)

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

That would be creepy. :)

When has that ever stopped you?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

When has that ever stopped you?

 

So true. By the way, Courtney doing a spot tomorrow, night?

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

When has that ever stopped you?

 

It was more of a general observation and wasn't intended to be interpreted as meaning I would stop.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

So true. By the way, Courtney doing a spot tomorrow, night?

 

LOL.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

Hi GATA.

I thought it was going to take a personal invite to get you posting again. Good thing it didn't come to that. That would be creepy. :)

Bahaha

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

so the jets play the colts in the PS opener

 

Luck will pick on milliner for the feel good opening drive TD so they can all go sit down and take their helmets off

 

and then we can all revisit this thread, lol

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited) · Report post

I have always thought so.

Maybe----I was thinking that Wilson had much better personnel around him but when you think about it, Wilson's receivers are not exactly a hall of fame collection. So, maybe.

Edited by jack48
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted · Report post

The AFC South sucks so some of his winning percentage is based on that but then dude had wins vs. 49'ers, Seahwaks and Broncos last year.  His stats arent astronomical but 23-9 TD vs. INT's is rock solid for a 2nd year player.  He's also had some injuries from a receiving perspective and a mediocre run game.  In terms of coming up big, that 2nd half vs. the Chiefs in playoffs. was unreal.  He was lights out.

 

Bottom line, the guy's really good and he's a baby.

 

 

Agreed....

 

The funny thing is is if Geno has a 23-9 TD vs INT to some people here would still be calling for his head.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0