Barkley worth 50 Million?

[Jetster]

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

[varjet]

1 minute ago, Jetster said:

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

Ross Tucker made that point on Sirius NFL.  

From an economic perspective, it makes sense to throw at least top 3 money at pass rushers and QBs.  

The Fournette and Elliott picks look smart in retrospect, but they were not number 1.  

[long suffering jets fan]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

Rookie contracts count a lot less towards the cap than traditional contracts. Also $50M isn't the whole story, what's the guaranteed portion?

[JoJoTownsell1]

I think there is a less than 1pct chance the Browns actually take Barkley. Pre-draft rumors are as accurate as a Jets GM draft board. 

[nycdan]

Myles Garrett (last year's #1) signed a 4-year, $30MM contract.  So what exactly is the point of this thread?

 

[Sully80]

Man I'd cream my pants if Jets got Cousins and Barkley

[BurnleyJet]

26 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I think there is a less than 1pct chance the Browns actually take Barkley. Pre-draft rumors are as accurate as a Jets GM draft board. 

NFL.com talking Cleveland taking Barkley #1 and Mayfield @ 4

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, BurnleyJet said:

NFL.com taking Cleveland taking Barkley #1 and Mayfield @ 4

Of all the places for Mayfield to land when trying to avoid comparisons to Manziel...

[Sperm Edwards]

36 minutes ago, Jetster said:

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

How do you figure? #1 last year got $7.5m x 4 years = $30m = $2m/year more than our safety.

There isn't that much inflation. It only goes up to $50m if the 5th year option is exercised, and if he isn't worth it then we don't exercise the option and it's $30m (plus 1 year inflation, so that's maybe what, ~$32m total for 4 years?).

[BurnleyJet]

2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Of all the places for Mayfield to land when trying to avoid comparisons to Manziel...

The more I see and hear of this guy, the more I like him. He's got stones and can play. He's no Manziel.

[nycdan]

Just now, BurnleyJet said:

The more I see and hear of this guy, the more I like him. He's got stones and can play. He's no Manziel.

I know that.  You know that.  Lots of people know that.  But put him in CLE and there's going to be lots of stupid talk about it.  Even more than there has been.  

[JoJoTownsell1]

11 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

NFL.com talking Cleveland taking Barkley #1 and Mayfield @ 4

I just don't buy it. If they love Mayfield they will take him at 1 because there are is no guarantee he'll be there at 4. Giants could take him or a team like the jets could trade up with the colts and take him. 

The only way they can take Barkley at 1 is if they don't like any of the QBs or they like 3 guys about the same and don't care which one falls to 4.

[rammagen]

14 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Of all the places for Mayfield to land when trying to avoid comparisons to Manziel...

I just checked they might have updated at nfl.com because they have the draft going which I would be pretty happy with

1

Josh Allen - QB, Wyoming

 

 

There has been scuttlebutt that GM John Dorsey likes Allen. Most folks are projecting Sam Darnold to go first overall, but I'll go with Allen, who showed great promise at the Senior Bowl.

 

 

PICK

2

Sam Darnold - QB, USC

 

 

Darnold has the potential to be the best quarterback in this class. Sitting behind Eli Manning for one year would be ideal.

 

 

PICK

3

Bradley Chubb - DE, N.C. State

 

 

The Colts finished second-to-last in the league last year with 25 sacks. Chubb is also strong vs. the run, making him the top defensive player in the draft.

 

 

PICK

4

Saquon Barkley - RB, Penn State

 

 

Adding Barkley to whomever they take with the top pick will put the Browns' building process in full gear.

 

 

PICK

5

Baker Mayfield - QB, Oklahoma

 

 

PROJECTED TRADE WITH BRONCOS. The Bills are willing to make a big move (giving up their two first-round picks this year plus a 2019 second-rounder) to get a quarterback after Sean McDermott falls in love with Mayfield's fiery demeanor. Denver is a willing trade partner after addressing the QB spot in free agency.

 

 

PICK

6

Josh Rosen - QB, UCLA

 

 

[peebag]

45 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I think there is a less than 1pct chance the Browns actually take Barkley. Pre-draft rumors are as accurate as a Jets GM draft board. 

Yea but think about it...Barkley seems like a sure bet....if they take him at 1 that leaves two other teams possibly vying for a qb, the Colts and Giants. Even if those 2 teams take qbs the leftovers won't be that bad.

[Pcola]

I think the big deal about taking a non-premium position in the top six is going to be the 5th option being around $13-15M.  And that’s where the starting point to contract extensions go.

So as good as Nelson is, if he is taken in the top 6, he’ll be the highest paid interior lineman in his 5th season.

 

[Pcola]

11 minutes ago, rammagen said:

I just checked they might have updated at nfl.com because they have the draft going which I would be pretty happy with

1

Josh Allen - QB, Wyoming

 

 

There has been scuttlebutt that GM John Dorsey likes Allen. Most folks are projecting Sam Darnold to go first overall, but I'll go with Allen, who showed great promise at the Senior Bowl.

 

 

PICK

2

Sam Darnold - QB, USC

 

 

Darnold has the potential to be the best quarterback in this class. Sitting behind Eli Manning for one year would be ideal.

 

 

PICK

3

Bradley Chubb - DE, N.C. State

 

 

The Colts finished second-to-last in the league last year with 25 sacks. Chubb is also strong vs. the run, making him the top defensive player in the draft.

 

 

PICK

4

Saquon Barkley - RB, Penn State

 

 

Adding Barkley to whomever they take with the top pick will put the Browns' building process in full gear.

 

 

PICK

5

Baker Mayfield - QB, Oklahoma

 

 

PROJECTED TRADE WITH BRONCOS. The Bills are willing to make a big move (giving up their two first-round picks this year plus a 2019 second-rounder) to get a quarterback after Sean McDermott falls in love with Mayfield's fiery demeanor. Denver is a willing trade partner after addressing the QB spot in free agency.

 

 

PICK

6

Josh Rosen - QB, UCLA

 

 

This would be a dream scenario.  Getting Rosen without having to trade up would be the Jets best draft coup in quite some time.  

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, Pcola said:

I think the big deal about taking a non-premium position in the top six is going to be the 5th option being around $13-15M.  And that’s where the starting point to contract extensions go.

So as good as Nelson is, if he is taken in the top 6, he’ll be the highest paid interior lineman in his 5th season.

 

Or...and this is possibly crazy talk...they could extend him to a new deal instead.  The Jets have not been good at doing that early enough, leading to situations like Wilk.  If we'd paid him the year before, he might have sucked a year sooner, but he'd also have cost us less on the way out.

[Pcola]

11 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Or...and this is possibly crazy talk...they could extend him to a new deal instead.  The Jets have not been good at doing that early enough, leading to situations like Wilk.  If we'd paid him the year before, he might have sucked a year sooner, but he'd also have cost us less on the way out.

The reason this happens so infrequently is because teams have to pick up the option at the beginning of year 4.  

For the player, there is not much incentive to work out a deal early unless the team over pays early in the rookie contract.

And for a team to want to extend a player early, means they are giving up probably 2 years of the rookie deal.

[pointman]

Leonard Fournette was supposedly a once in a generation running back too. Now Barkley is? Sorry, I can't keep up with all these once in a generation players.. at the same position... a year apart. 

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, rammagen said:

I just checked they might have updated at nfl.com because they have the draft going which I would be pretty happy with

1

Josh Allen - QB, Wyoming

 

 

There has been scuttlebutt that GM John Dorsey likes Allen. Most folks are projecting Sam Darnold to go first overall, but I'll go with Allen, who showed great promise at the Senior Bowl.

 

 

PICK

2

Sam Darnold - QB, USC

 

 

Darnold has the potential to be the best quarterback in this class. Sitting behind Eli Manning for one year would be ideal.

 

 

PICK

3

Bradley Chubb - DE, N.C. State

 

 

The Colts finished second-to-last in the league last year with 25 sacks. Chubb is also strong vs. the run, making him the top defensive player in the draft.

 

 

PICK

4

Saquon Barkley - RB, Penn State

 

 

Adding Barkley to whomever they take with the top pick will put the Browns' building process in full gear.

 

 

PICK

5

Baker Mayfield - QB, Oklahoma

 

 

PROJECTED TRADE WITH BRONCOS. The Bills are willing to make a big move (giving up their two first-round picks this year plus a 2019 second-rounder) to get a quarterback after Sean McDermott falls in love with Mayfield's fiery demeanor. Denver is a willing trade partner after addressing the QB spot in free agency.

 

 

PICK

6

Josh Rosen - QB, UCLA

 

 

*Fist pump

[nycdan]

2 hours ago, Pcola said:

The reason this happens so infrequently is because teams have to pick up the option at the beginning of year 4.  

For the player, there is not much incentive to work out a deal early unless the team over pays early in the rookie contract.

And for a team to want to extend a player early, means they are giving up probably 2 years of the rookie deal.

But nothing prevents the team from extending the deal before the 5th year.  Yes, you have added the option already, assuming the player was good enough over the first 3 years, but you can still get the player to market rate rather than pay out the 5th year (unless that already is market rate).  And wouldn't a player rather work out a 4-5 year extension at that point rather than play out their 5th year with no protection beyond that if they get injured?  That's the leverage the team has to get a little bit better of a deal than when the player is a FA or when the franchise tag is so much more expensive. 

[Patriot Killa]

3 hours ago, nycdan said:

Of all the places for Mayfield to land when trying to avoid comparisons to Manziel...

Irony like that is life’s form of sadistic humor.

[nycdan]

2 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Irony like that is life’s form of sadistic humor.

 

The universe has two overarching goals.

1) Increase Entropy

2) F-ck with nycdan

If it can enjoy a little ironic twist or karmic slap-down in its spare time, that's just a bonus.

[New York Mick]

4 hours ago, Sully80 said:

Man I'd cream my pants if Jets got Cousins and Barkley

So would half the board (the ones that actually watch football).

[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, varjet said:

Ross Tucker made that point on Sirius NFL.  

From an economic perspective, it makes sense to throw at least top 3 money at pass rushers and QBs.  

The Fournette and Elliott picks look smart in retrospect, but they were not number 1.  

Barkley is potentially a generational RB. A generational RB is more valuable than a pass rusher. In fact, first round QBs generally lead to more increased wins than any other position.  5 years $50 million for a Top 3 RB in the NFL is unquestionably worth it.

[Villain The Foe]

10 hours ago, Jetster said:

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

And yet i doubt teams like the cowboys and the Rams wish they passed on Elliott and Gurley because of 3rd round sensations. If the draft was done again these guys would still be 1st round picks.

The Browns fate has been what it's been BECAUSE of the amount of times they passed on special talent, so i guess it would be a genius move to do it again simply because of some 3rd round players that hit? 

It makes no sense given that the 1st round rb's also hit. The purpose isto have your top 2 rounds produce immediately. Barkley will. Also, the browns have 2 picks in the top 5...seriously, taking arguably the best/safest player in the draft when you're a team that is 1-31 the past two seasons is the right thing to do. You dont get cute because of Alvin Kamara when we all know that Brees/coaching also contributed greatly to that situation.

When your team is 1-31 you take the best player....especially when you're picking again at #4 and you're still guaranteed a shot at 1 of the top qb's. 

 

[New York Mick]

Where did you get that number and yes he’s worth the first pick.

The Browns could sign a FA QB and draft Barkley and Nelson then a CB and OT or sign Barkley and still get a top 3 QB plus other needs, they have 97 draft picks this year. They have a history of taking the BPA first then a QB. They’ve done it 3 times in the last ten years (a few more overall) and haven’t draft a QB with their first pick since 99 (Couch) and have only draft a QB 3 times with their first pick ever so if any team were to draft a RB or anyone else when they have the first and need a QB it’s the Browns. 

[jgb]

4 hours ago, pointman said:

Leonard Fournette was supposedly a once in a generation running back too. Now Barkley is? Sorry, I can't keep up with all these once in a generation players.. at the same position... a year apart. 

The hype machine loves to do its thing. Honestly though, Barkley really is once in a generation as far as his measurables go. Whether that will translate into him being a once in a generation NFL player is anyone's guess.

[Mogglez]

7 hours ago, rammagen said:

I just checked they might have updated at nfl.com because they have the draft going which I would be pretty happy with

1

Josh Allen - QB, Wyoming

 

 

There has been scuttlebutt that GM John Dorsey likes Allen. Most folks are projecting Sam Darnold to go first overall, but I'll go with Allen, who showed great promise at the Senior Bowl.

 

 

PICK

2

Sam Darnold - QB, USC

 

 

Darnold has the potential to be the best quarterback in this class. Sitting behind Eli Manning for one year would be ideal.

 

 

PICK

3

Bradley Chubb - DE, N.C. State

 

 

The Colts finished second-to-last in the league last year with 25 sacks. Chubb is also strong vs. the run, making him the top defensive player in the draft.

 

 

PICK

4

Saquon Barkley - RB, Penn State

 

 

Adding Barkley to whomever they take with the top pick will put the Browns' building process in full gear.

 

 

PICK

5

Baker Mayfield - QB, Oklahoma

 

 

PROJECTED TRADE WITH BRONCOS. The Bills are willing to make a big move (giving up their two first-round picks this year plus a 2019 second-rounder) to get a quarterback after Sean McDermott falls in love with Mayfield's fiery demeanor. Denver is a willing trade partner after addressing the QB spot in free agency.

 

 

PICK

6

Josh Rosen - QB, UCLA

 

 

This entire mock was made with the premise of Denver landing Cousins, which they aren't, and trading down with a QB needy team like Buffalo for a massive haul to help them build around him.  Denver is now taking a QB and they are reportedly smitten with Rosen and Mayfield.  Then there is the likelihood that the Colts trade down too.  We aren't getting Rosen at 6.  This is a terrible mock.

[jgb]

It takes a special kind of stupid to be in salary cap hell without having to pay a franchise QB $20M+. You have to spend the money somewhere. Unspent money has no value to the team (to the owner, yes, but not to the team). It's therefore not very analogous to a free market system where the utility of spending money has to at a minimum equal the perceived value of saving it.

[RedBeardedSavage]

https://overthecap.com/draft/

If I read that correctly, hovered my mouse over the first pick, then Barkley in this scenario would make about 32 million, with 21 of it guaranteed over five years.

Yea I'm all for that for Barkley; his best years will likely be his rookie contract years.   

If you really think about it, you only want to pay top-end RB's on their rookie contracts.  You start making mistakes as a franchise when you're handing a star RB a second contract when he's 26/27 years old.  His best days are likely behind him and, if he's a 'star', he'll command a ludicrous salary for diminishing returns going forward.

So if we're just talking money; yea, it's worth it.

The problem with drafting a RB high is not what he'll be paid on a rookie contract (now that the NFL has a rigid rookie wage structure), the real question is value above replacement - is there someone else there that they won't be able to get later with their 4th pick overall (and there three picks in the second round)?  

There are no other RB's in this class (and generally most draft classes) that are 233 lbs, have tremendous college production, run 4.4 flat in the 40, special receiving ability and a clean injury history.  That's a rare player.  

If they didn't have the fourth pick, I'd say sure, pick the QB.  But they do.  Take Barkley, you'll likely only miss out on one quarterback (whomever the Giants pick) as the Colts are unlikely to select a QB @ 3, and then you take the second QB off the board @ pick 4 (he might even be your first choice, but at worst, he's your second choice).   

But if some team trades with the Colts to the #3 pick... then you might be looking at the third QB off the board @ pick 4... that's a serious gamble for a team to make... you had your choice, your pick of the litter and now, three picks later, two quarterbacks are off the board because you chose a runningback? 

Maybe you get lucky; maybe both quarterbacks taken were not your choice... maybe one of those selected was your top guy but the second guy drafted wasn't even on your board (*cough* Josh Allen *cough*)... Or maybe you liked Mayfield & Darnold and they're both gone by four and now you're in serious sh*t because you think Rosen is an injury-prone jerkoff, Lamar doesn't fit your system and your scouting department tells you Josh Allen is functionally illiterate.  

Maybe your best bet, as the Browns, is to take Barkley one and keep an open line of communication with the Colts @ 3 - you might be yielding some bargaining position by doing so, but you know you can make the best offer to the Colts because they'd only have to drop down one pick and you, the browns, have the ammo with three 2nd rounders this year to play with.  

Soooooo, that was a rabbit hole... 

[Il Mostro]

9 hours ago, Sully80 said:

Man I'd cream my pants if Jets got Cousins and Barkley

Sadly, your pants are quite safe, unless something else makes you blow your load.

[Jetscreen]

13 hours ago, Jetster said:

That's what a #1 overall contract would look like! Seriously, if the Brown take Barkley #1 overall, they deserve their fate! Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rounder/Hunt also. I know Sequan is special, but so was AP & he never came CLOSE to a Super Bowl.

Now if we sign Cousins & he drops to 6? YEA BABY!

I don't think any responsible fan wants to pay that much for an unproven player, However, Saquon Barkley is probably as sure a thing as there is today. So I pay him that amount.

[bla bla bla]

5 hours ago, Mogglez said:

This entire mock was made with the premise of Denver landing Cousins, which they aren't, and trading down with a QB needy team like Buffalo for a massive haul to help them build around him.  Denver is now taking a QB and they are reportedly smitten with Rosen and Mayfield.  Then there is the likelihood that the Colts trade down too.  We aren't getting Rosen at 6.  This is a terrible mock.

I'm torn on this, I could definitely see them sign Keenum and then take Nelson at 5 or trade out for 21, 22, Cordy Glenn, and a 2019 2nd. Heck I could even see them not signing Keenum and landing Tyrod instead of the 2019 2nd. 

The potential player trades with the Bills (Glenn/Tyrod) and the Dolphins (Landry/Tannehill) scare me more than anything else.

[bla bla bla]

Double post