THEORY: Jets are targeting Baker Mayfield

[Bruce Harper]

1 hour ago, Jazy8ball said:

Very well written. I just can't get my head around this. If Allen is such a risk, why do guys that do this for a living project him top 3. Mahomes has a cannon too, he was not projected top 5. Just out of curiosity, where do you think Trubisky would rank in this class?

There's a bunch of guys every year who get excited about how someone looks in shorts at the Combine.  Rarely do the guys without a history of high-level performance pan out.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

Rosen has a VERY low floor for reasons that GMs seldom have to consider-rich LA kid with neurologist father 

 

his dad is an orthopedic spine surgeon. Whether that includes a specialization in Neurology I'm too lazy to look up 

[Pcola]

2 hours ago, legler82 said:

Not all WCOs are creates equal.  Bates is Mike Shanahan disciple.  Shanahan's WCO offense involved a heavy run attack behind a zone blocking scheme; Shanahan's offense was notorious spitting out 1,000 yard rushers from low and undrafted FA running backs.  The passing attack was then built off of that w/ play lots action, bootlegs and design rollouts attacking the intermediate to deep part of the field; not to mention design runs.  Coincidentally, those are the type of plays Allen excels at. To run this type of WCO, Mike Shanahan tended to gravitate towards big arm athletic QBs (e.g., Elway, Cutler, McNabb, RGIII...etc.).  But we'll see if Bates adopts the same type of WCO or goes more for the traditional WCO, where the short passing game is an extension of or in some cases a substitute of the running game.  I doubt the latter since reports are Morton was let go for not running the ball enough.

Great points.  I still think Allen is better suited to run what Haley had in Pitt.  

[UnitedWhofans]

2 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Great points.  I still think Allen is better suited to run what Haley had in Pitt.  

Probably why a lot of mocks have Allen to Cleveland

[prime21]

Eeny meeny miny moe....give me ANY of the Fo'!

 

 

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, Jazy8ball said:

Very well written. I just can't get my head around this. If Allen is such a risk, why do guys that do this for a living project him top 3. Mahomes has a cannon too, he was not projected top 5. Just out of curiosity, where do you think Trubisky would rank in this class?

They are going off of what GMs are telling them.  So some of it could be misinformation.  Some of it could be that he is a top 4 QB just with a  ton of risk.  GMs that are not currently in the market, could be pumping him up because they want other players to fall.  Chi or TB would LOVE Minkah Fitzpatrick or Nelson to drop.

Some GMs could discredit the low completion % to team or offensive philosophy.  Who knows.  The one thing is for sure, Mayock, Kiper, and all the other guys, none of them are going to get fired if this guy busts.  It’s going to take a GM desperate enough to take the gamble, and smart enough to do everything in his power to surround him with elite coaching and talent for him to make it work.

 

[jetstream23]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Probably why a lot of mocks have Allen to Cleveland

If Cleveland takes Barkley #1 they push the Top 3 QBs down to picks 2, 3, 4 and would guarantee themselves at least one of Darnold, Rosen, Allen.  However, if they take Allen, or any other QB, at #1 then I don't think there's an assurance Barkley makes it to #4.  It will all come down to how closely Cleveland has the QBs rated to each other or if they have one clear favorite that they want at #1.  That's the game theory that I believe Cleveland has to play.

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

If Cleveland takes Barkley #1 they push the Top 3 QBs down to picks 2, 3, 4 and would guarantee themselves at least one of Darnold, Rosen, Allen.  However, if they take Allen, or any other QB, at #1 then I don't think there's an assurance Barkley makes it to #4.  It will all come down to how closely Cleveland has the QBs rated to each other or if they have one clear favorite that they want at #1.  That's the game theory that I believe Cleveland has to play.

they also are rumored to love mayfield so throw that into the equation.

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

Rosen has a VERY low floor for reasons that GMs seldom have to consider-rich LA kid with neurologist father, who already has an injury history and concussions.  He is outside the box.  These NFL guys are very INSIDE the box. 

Not sure what you mean “low floor.”  This guy out of the gate has the intelligence and arm to be a better rookie than Wentz, Goff, Winston, and Mariota.

If his parents were going to be concerned with his health, he would have been a professional tennis player and would not have played football at UCLA.  

Say whatever you want about RBs, LBs, OL.  They don’t have the potential to make $30M annually on their second contract.  He was kept out of a couple of games for concern for concussions.  These were more likely precaustions.  Star QBs get protected in the NFL.  At least moreso than they did in College.

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

I thought Baker had bigger hands than Darnold?

Baker - 9.25

Darnold - 9.375

Jackson - 9.5

Rosen - 9.875

Allen - 10.125

Say what you want about Allen, he’s not going to fumble a lot.

[UnitedWhofans]

4 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Baker - 9.25

Darnold - 9.375

Jackson - 9.5

Rosen - 9.875

Allen - 10.125

Say what you want about Allen, he’s not going to fumble a lot.

I'll say this for Allen as well. Watching his bowl game, I noticed that he is very mobile in the pocket.

All 4 of these QBs has a major flaw

[Pcola]

10 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

I'll say this for Allen as well. Watching his bowl game, I noticed that he is very mobile in the pocket.

All 4 of these QBs has a major flaw

I watched Allen’s bowl game again on Saturday.  This time trying to find something I could love about him.  Basically trying to convince myself that if he’s the pick, it could work.

During the first quarter, he was great.  He avoided pressure and threw well on the run.  His 3 TD passes we’re all impressive throws.  

The problem I have is that the rest of the game he disappeared.  Why would a HC with a legitimate QB like him, not allow him to take over the game.  The first quarter, CMI turned it over several times so Allen had a very short field.  After the first quarter, it was tough to get first downs.  

Mia that a problem with the HC?  Was he trying to be ultra conservative because of Allen’s accuracy or decision making?

Unlike Mayfield, where Lincoln Riley basically allowed Mayfield to get in a shootout week in and week out.  The OK/OK St game was just unreal.  But the guy is limited physically.  Too early to say he could be the next Drew Brees.  We just don’t know how well he can absorb an NFL playbook or how he deals with adversity.  The NY media love to go after the Jets.  How will he respond?  There is also the issue with his hand size.

Darnold hasn’t been playing QB very long.  This is why he is being touted as the clear consensus beat of the bunch guy.  They are all projecting him to get much better with experience.  He is careless with the ball and with the hand size, he is going to fumble.

Rosen is mechanically flawless.  When you watch him throw, it appears to be very easy for him.  He is flaws are durability and trying to do too much.

Out if the four, I can live with Rosen’s flaws more than all the others.

[UnitedWhofans]

1 minute ago, Pcola said:

Out if the four, I can live with Rosen’s flaws more than all the others.

Well here they are

Rosen: Injuries esp. concussion

Darnold: Decision making

Allen: Accuracy

Mayfield: Size

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Pcola said:

I watched Allen’s bowl game again on Saturday.  This time trying to find something I could love about him.  Basically trying to convince myself that if he’s the pick, it could work.

During the first quarter, he was great.  He avoided pressure and threw well on the run.  His 3 TD passes we’re all impressive throws.  

The problem I have is that the rest of the game he disappeared.  Why would a HC with a legitimate QB like him, not allow him to take over the game.  The first quarter, CMI turned it over several times so Allen had a very short field.  After the first quarter, it was tough to get first downs.  

Mia that a problem with the HC?  Was he trying to be ultra conservative because of Allen’s accuracy or decision making?

Unlike Mayfield, where Lincoln Riley basically allowed Mayfield to get in a shootout week in and week out.  The OK/OK St game was just unreal.  But the guy is limited physically.  Too early to say he could be the next Drew Brees.  We just don’t know how well he can absorb an NFL playbook or how he deals with adversity.  The NY media love to go after the Jets.  How will he respond?  There is also the issue with his hand size.

Darnold hasn’t been playing QB very long.  This is why he is being touted as the clear consensus beat of the bunch guy.  They are all projecting him to get much better with experience.  He is careless with the ball and with the hand size, he is going to fumble.

Rosen is mechanically flawless.  When you watch him throw, it appears to be very easy for him.  He is flaws are durability and trying to do too much.

Out if the four, I can live with Rosen’s flaws more than all the others.

i don't understand how mayfield is limited physically.  his arm strength is not like pennington.  he's not extremely slow or immobile like ken o'brien.  he's not built frail like josh rosen.  he's an inch shorter than what would be considered ok to draft in the top 10, but that's about it.  

[varjet]

52 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Not sure what you mean “low floor.”  This guy out of the gate has the intelligence and arm to be a better rookie than Wentz, Goff, Winston, and Mariota.

If his parents were going to be concerned with his health, he would have been a professional tennis player and would not have played football at UCLA.  

Say whatever you want about RBs, LBs, OL.  They don’t have the potential to make $30M annually on their second contract.  He was kept out of a couple of games for concern for concussions.  These were more likely precaustions.  Star QBs get protected in the NFL.  At least moreso than they did in College.

He has a low floor because conceivably, he could not even make it through his rookie contract.

Likely?  Probably not.  But more likely than most other QBs without a concussion history from poor families.  

[Pcola]

14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i don't understand how mayfield is limited physically.  his arm strength is not like pennington.  he's not extremely slow or immobile like ken o'brien.  he's not built frail like josh rosen.  he's an inch shorter than what would be considered ok to draft in the top 10, but that's about it.  

He’s limited physically because he’s barely 6’0 tall.  Say what you want about Russell Wilson but Wilson’s athletism >>> Mayfield’s.

 

And for the record, Rosen weighed more than Darnold at the combine.

[Pcola]

6 minutes ago, varjet said:

He has a low floor because conceivably, he could not even make it through his rookie contract.

Likely?  Probably not.  But more likely than most other QBs without a concussion history from poor families.  

You ccouls probably say that about anybody.  I dont remember anyone questioning Bridgewater’s durability at Louisville.  

Rosen isn’t going to run around like RGIII.  He’s a big guy.  It’s up to the organization to put him in a position to remain upright and healthy.  Most college players don’t admit that they have had concussions.  Because UCLA was cautious shouldn’t be a red flag.

[legler82]

1 hour ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

I think Mahomes outplays EVERY QB in this Draft, and by a wide margin.  But we got a box Safety that has great cheerleading intangibles.  Consenus said he was the “best player in the Draft”.

The sad irony about all this is that we had the 6th pick traded up to the 3rd sparking this big debate over Allen and Mayfield, 2 possible available prospects at that spot. We could of have had Mahomes at 6 last year, the guy who is essentially the best of those 2 merged into one prospect. Allen may have the slightly better arm strength but Mahomes has the better arm talent IMO. So you get the Allen type arm but with accuracy and production you feel good about while also getting everything people love about Mayfield but on steroids.

Fun fact:  Mahomes set an NCAA single game passing yards (734) and total yards (819) against Mayfield's Oklahoma team.

 

[Thai Jet]

9 hours ago, House Jet said:

It was 5:21am in NY when i wrote this. I couldnt sleep so i go to my usual routine of reading about the Jets until i pass out. Except this time was different. Ive had an epiphany. Jets fans quickly realized the trade to 3 happened after the Jets visited Rosens pro day. The Jets visited Mayfields pro day right before that. With the way things are looking, it seems the Browns will take Darnold. So if Darnold is taken, it only makes sense for the Jets to make this move if they're ok with taking at the very least the 3rd qb available (id assume thats Mayfield). I know the draft has a way of being completely unpredictable. However, my take is that Baker Mayfield is a lot higher on the Jets board than people think and i wouldnt be surprised if they choose him over Rosen. If we stay at 3 which is the most likely scenario, i believe Mac has Rosen and Mayfield rated equally. If the Giants decide to go qb the consensus is that they pick Rosen. It is for this reason i believe the Jets are targeting Mayfield and it seems pretty likely that theyll have a shot at their guy. Id hope Mac didnt give up 3 2nds for a CHANCE at Rosen. I think he knows without a doubt he can get Mayfield at 3. It seems like Mac has a plan and im excited. Sorry in advance that there is no article, but i dont think this is completely baseless. Let me know what you think. Also sorry for the wall of text if your on mobile. It was too early/late to format

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, Pcola said:

I watched Allen’s bowl game again on Saturday.  This time trying to find something I could love about him.  Basically trying to convince myself that if he’s the pick, it could work.

During the first quarter, he was great.  He avoided pressure and threw well on the run.  His 3 TD passes we’re all impressive throws.  

The problem I have is that the rest of the game he disappeared.  Why would a HC with a legitimate QB like him, not allow him to take over the game.  The first quarter, CMI turned it over several times so Allen had a very short field.  After the first quarter, it was tough to get first downs.  

 

 

 

 

Wyomings defense this year was pretty porous. HC might have wanted to go conservative and let the D rest more. They had a decent lead . Just a guess. I'll have to rewatch it.

[long suffering jets fan]

8 hours ago, Warfish said:

Have they not seen Allen?  Have they not interviewed him?  Is a smokescreen pre-draft not a thing?

There's no question Allen was the most impressive QB at the combine and it wasn't even close.  Does that translate to getting picked before the others, or long term success, who knows, but he certainly didn't hurt himself. 

[Larz]

Maccagnan said Mayfield is a "productive college quarterback" 

Could be a smokescreen  

Could be an epic burn 

[jetspenguin]

9 hours ago, k-met57 said:

Brees - played in SD, and then in a Dome

Wilson - about 5 times the athlete that Baker is, came from a pro style O

Flutie - god forbit this 3rd pic's upside is Doug Flutie

 

who else you got?

Playing in a dome isnt relevant because Mayfield's selling point isnt arm strength although he has plenty enough.

Wilson being more athletic isnt relevant either because we aren't picking Mayfield because of how athletic he is. 

Flutie? well he is short too

People are shooting down things about Mayfield that are not the reason he is compared to Wilson and Brees. He is compared to them because of his height, nothing more nothing less, they dont have similar playing styles or personalities. 

We can say the same thing about Rosen and Darnold because they are not the athlete Wilson is and we still wont have a dome if they draft either of them. 

[Charlie Brown]

2 hours ago, legler82 said:

The sad irony about all this is that we had the 6th pick traded up to the 3rd sparking this big debate over Allen and Mayfield, 2 possible available prospects at that spot. We could of have had Mahomes at 6 last year, the guy who is essentially the best of those 2 merged into one prospect. Allen may have the slightly better arm strength but Mahomes has the better arm talent IMO. So you get the Allen type arm but with accuracy and production you feel good about while also getting everything people love about Mayfield but on steroids.

Fun fact:  Mahomes set an NCAA single game passing yards (734) and total yards (819) against Mayfield's Oklahoma team.

 

I still want a sound explanation of why we didn’t draft him. 

[Charlie Brown]

26 minutes ago, long suffering jets fan said:

There's no question Allen was the most impressive QB at the combine and it wasn't even close.  Does that translate to getting picked before the others, or long term success, who knows, but he certainly didn't hurt himself. 

Ummmmm was Allen more impressive than JaMarcus Russell????

[Rangers9]

If the Jets don't get their favored Qb at #3 (and probably they are ok with at least 3 Qbs) but if it's only two guys they could select Barkley or if another team wants him badly trade back, get some of those picks in return and take a tier 2 Qb. By tier 2,  I mean the top Qbs after 1 and 2. I don't think this will happen because reports are they like Allen. Some boards have Cleveland taking Allen at #1. So we could lose some points if we trade back after giving up three second round picks but you take a chance and sometimes you have to accept a loss. Same if you sell your house. You might not get the price you want on the old house but you might get a good deal on the new house. 

[varjet]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

I still want a sound explanation of why we didn’t draft him [Mahomes]. 

Macc's job is to evaluate talent and make decisions based on his evaluations.  

In 2 years we will know if Mac judged the 2017 and 2018 QBs correctly.  

He can go with Allen and claim upside that needs develop, or roll the dice with Mayfield for perhaps an immediate splash and entertainment.  

I think:

• The Johnsons have already grabbed the wheel and will judge Johnson based on the other moves.  
• I think they take Mayfield for being the choice that the fans understand the best (assuming Rosen and Darnold are both gone).
• For the Johnsons, its Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Barkley, Allen.

[k-met57]

19 minutes ago, jetspenguin said:

Playing in a dome isnt relevant because Mayfield's selling point isnt arm strength although he has plenty enough.

Wilson being more athletic isnt relevant either because we aren't picking Mayfield because of how athletic he is. 

Flutie? well he is short too

People are shooting down things about Mayfield that are not the reason he is compared to Wilson and Brees. He is compared to them because of his height, nothing more nothing less, they dont have similar playing styles or personalities. 

We can say the same thing about Rosen and Darnold because they are not the athlete Wilson is and we still wont have a dome if they draft either of them. 

so Mayfield isnt being drafted because he has a big arm, or because he is athletic, and its certainly not for his height. so why are we considering him at 3 again? because he played in a pro style offence? no, because he has flawless mechanics? no, give me the reasons why Mayfield in a cold weather environment where you need to win playoff games in crazy wind and cold...will be successful? because he is a leader? because he can accurately dink and dunk against the wind?

look i dont dislike mayfield, in fact if the jets pick him, i am ready to roll with him...BUT...for all of the above reasons, he will not go third...u just dont have guys with that many questions going third to teams that play in the elements.

[Jazy8ball]

5 hours ago, legler82 said:

Allen is projected that high because of his size and athleticism in addition to his arm.  Mahomes did not have the same size and athleticism plus was an Air Raid product.  

Allen is just a huge risk in the eyes of Jets fans because of the Hackenberg.  The reality is that he has a higher floor thank Mayfield.  At worst Allen is Bortles maybe at best too...lol.  Mayfield however could be Chase Daniels.

I don’t see a comparison between Allen and Hack. I will support whoever we draft. But I’m leaning towards Allen. My reason isn’t as good as the experts in this chat but I like that Allen has cold weather experience and is mobile. Not to mention the cannon. Lol

[RESNewYork]

Allen does have attributes that you can't teach. 

He's a big horse, who is athletic and mobile, big hands with superior arm strength. This is a big man who moves really well, can pick up some first downs with his legs. As far as the rest, don't they all have a learning curve as to developing and picking up an NFL offense?

 

[jetspenguin]

45 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

so Mayfield isnt being drafted because he has a big arm, or because he is athletic, and its certainly not for his height. so why are we considering him at 3 again? because he played in a pro style offence? no, because he has flawless mechanics? no, give me the reasons why Mayfield in a cold weather environment where you need to win playoff games in crazy wind and cold...will be successful? because he is a leader? because he can accurately dink and dunk against the wind?

look i dont dislike mayfield, in fact if the jets pick him, i am ready to roll with him...BUT...for all of the above reasons, he will not go third...u just dont have guys with that many questions going third to teams that play in the elements.

Are you kidding? You are using the weather as a reason? The other 2 top guys are sunshine cali boys. One with tiny hands and a penchant for turnovers and the other one is brittle. The cold will stiffen up those injuries as soon as a nice wind comes whipping through the stadium. 

Yes Mayfield is a leader, the kid can flat out BALL. He is a winner, no if, ands or butts. Where do you get the dink and dunk thing from? Did you see his film? He is NOT a dink and dunk QB. His arm is at least as strong as Rosen and his mental make up is better than Darnolds despite what people will tell you. 

I am a Rosen fan first and foremost but I am more than happy to take the kid with balls and a winning attitude. I love people who win despite the odds when people count against you. Thats the guy I want to go to war with, not a guy who is a converted QB who cant hold on to the ball in sun shiny california. 

[jetspenguin]

5 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

Allen does have attributes that you can't teach. 

He's a big horse, who is athletic and mobile, big hands with superior arm strength. This is a big man who moves really well, can pick up some first downs with his legs. As far as the rest, don't they all have a learning curve as to developing and picking up an NFL offense?

 

Everything you said about him is correct.....but this is also correct. He doesnt WIN, he is off target almost as much as he is on and when playing against superior talent he FOLDED up the tent and took his big arse arm home to flip pancakes.

[jetrider]

4 hours ago, Pcola said:

I watched Allen’s bowl game again on Saturday.  This time trying to find something I could love about him.  Basically trying to convince myself that if he’s the pick, it could work.

During the first quarter, he was great.  He avoided pressure and threw well on the run.  His 3 TD passes we’re all impressive throws.  

The problem I have is that the rest of the game he disappeared.  Why would a HC with a legitimate QB like him, not allow him to take over the game.  The first quarter, CMI turned it over several times so Allen had a very short field.  After the first quarter, it was tough to get first downs.  

Mia that a problem with the HC?  Was he trying to be ultra conservative because of Allen’s accuracy or decision making?

Unlike Mayfield, where Lincoln Riley basically allowed Mayfield to get in a shootout week in and week out.  The OK/OK St game was just unreal.  But the guy is limited physically.  Too early to say he could be the next Drew Brees.  We just don’t know how well he can absorb an NFL playbook or how he deals with adversity.  The NY media love to go after the Jets.  How will he respond?  There is also the issue with his hand size.

Darnold hasn’t been playing QB very long.  This is why he is being touted as the clear consensus beat of the bunch guy.  They are all projecting him to get much better with experience.  He is careless with the ball and with the hand size, he is going to fumble.

Rosen is mechanically flawless.  When you watch him throw, it appears to be very easy for him.  He is flaws are durability and trying to do too much.

Out if the four, I can live with Rosen’s flaws more than all the others.

That's simply untrue. A team can't go anywhere with the starter on IR unless your backup pulls a Nick Foles.

In which case you don't need Rosen on payroll.

[Pcola]

Jeremiah just wrote a piece on the top 10 QB prospects over the past three years.  Spoiler alert: Darnold and Rosen were in the top 3, with Wentz at 2.  

So Rosen, according to Jeremiah, is a better prospect than Goff, Mayfield, Allen, and all the QBs drafted last year.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

5 hours ago, legler82 said:

The sad irony about all this is that we had the 6th pick traded up to the 3rd sparking this big debate over Allen and Mayfield, 2 possible available prospects at that spot. We could of have had Mahomes at 6 last year, the guy who is essentially the best of those 2 merged into one prospect. Allen may have the slightly better arm strength but Mahomes has the better arm talent IMO. So you get the Allen type arm but with accuracy and production you feel good about while also getting everything people love about Mayfield but on steroids.

Fun fact:  Mahomes set an NCAA single game passing yards (734) and total yards (819) against Mayfield's Oklahoma team.

 

Thanks for those additional facts/stats I did not know about, making me feel even worse.  I know what I've seen in Mahomes, and someone who knows way way better than me and is great at evaluating QB's, Andy Reid, was willing to mortgage the farm if he had to to get him.

I was shouting last year before the pick.."C'mon Mahomes, show some guts"....then of course the letdown of what happened, but I expected it.

At least it was better (because you can read Maccagnan like a comic book) than 1983 when I was a kid and picked up a baseball and whipped it practically through a closet door following Pete Rozelle's smirk and then pause for effect..."QB....................Ken O'Brien", when I was 110% sure the next words would be Dan Marino.

Yeah this predicament of this year was TOTALLY avoidable...but that's what happens when you don't want to spend money for a real GM and real Head Coach.