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Albert Breer - Darnold/Jets update in SI


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We have another Sam Darnold update for you. A lot of the basics remain unchanged from what we’ve told you over the last month. The Jets have taken calls, and haven’t seemed to be in any particular rush to move their 23-year-old former first-rounder. No one’s blown them away. They’d like to get a look at Trey Lance (March 12), Zach Wilson (March 26) and Justin Fields (March 31) throwing live at their pro days, which will be the only shot teams get to see the quarterbacks sling it in person, before making a final decision. This week, there are a few things we can add.

• At this point, eight teams have called the Jets about Darnold with varying levels of interest.

• The expectation is the Jets will max out their number of allowable personnel at those pro days (at most schools it’s the NFL-mandated limit of three), and the top guys (some combination of GM Joe Douglas, coach Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur) will attend.

• While, again, the preference is to see the quarterbacks throw live before they make a call on Darnold, the Jets are cognizant that holding onto Darnold past the start of free agency, with quarterback vacancies filling across the league, could hurt his value. So it’s not impossible that they’d move faster.

As for teams to watch, three in particular are interesting to me: Chicago, San Francisco and Washington. Two of the three, Chicago and Washington, were playoff teams in 2020, aren’t in striking distance to draft one of the top guys and may not think developing a rookie, given where they’re at, is the best play. San Francisco would be even more fascinating. Darnold’s a strong fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and trading for him would make the Niners six years younger, and $20 million cheaper at the position in 2020. The Niners like Jimmy Garoppolo, as we’ve said here, and won’t move off him without a clear upgrade. Could Darnold be that?

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/08/mmqb-salary-cap-squeeze-free-agency-veteran-trade-candidates

 

 
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So darnold goes to the niners and garapollo goes back to the patsies.  Wouldn’t the jets be helping the competition?  And then this type of move automatically means they will be going qb with the second pick.  I think the three QBs mentioned may be smoke screens.

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The Jets are in a bit of a bad spot here.  If someone offers a high 2 or better for Darnold, I think they have to take it and then move forward with Watson or a draft pick (preferably latter).   They may need to do something before they see the QBs throw.  I don't know whether its throw they need-its measurements. 

For me, the strategy for a Watson bid would be something on the low side that would set a floor for the Dolphins.  

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2 hours ago, rangerous said:

So darnold goes to the niners and garapollo goes back to the patsies.  Wouldn’t the jets be helping the competition?  And then this type of move automatically means they will be going qb with the second pick.  I think the three QBs mentioned may be smoke screens.

I don't want to help those rat bastards !!!!!!

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6 minutes ago, ganggreen305 said:

Praying we get a #2 for him.  Most likely a 3.

A 2 seems to be a lock, I think they're holding out for a late 1.

A team that needs a QB, but is out of reach in the 1st for anyone near Sam's potential.

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The rationale is that if he is a bad QB why would niners want him at all?

If the Jets didn't have a top 5 pick they would be rolling with Sam.

That's the message the Jets are trying to send anyway.  I'm not sure it's true but it's clearly the message.

That's the 49ers thinking - if they had #2 overall they wouldn't be looking to trade for Sam Darnold.

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If the Jets didn't have a top 5 pick they would be rolling with Sam.

That's the message the Jets are trying to send anyway.  I'm not sure it's true but it's clearly the message.

That's the 49ers thinking - if they had #2 overall they wouldn't be looking to trade for Sam Darnold.

I agree but just on talent alone Zach is ahead of Darnold and it’s not close. 

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4 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The rationale is that if he is a bad QB why would niners want him at all?

Hes a 23 year old QB who was heralded as a top prospect who will cost a team that trades for him ~$5mm next year and is an ideal scheme fit for their system. If Darnold produced at a mediocre level over the past few seasons he would be worth 2 first rounders. He has been bad which is why no team will give us multiple firsts, but his potential upside is such that he still is worth something. 

If I was investing in a small business that had a chance to be a leader in their industry, but given their current flaws had a decent chance to be a total flop, I still may invest in it but I'd want to invest at a value that was reflective of the risk I was taking that my equity could go to zero. Thats what the teams looking to trade for Darnold are doing. If they were guaranteed the same level of performance as last year no chance in hell they'd give up a second round pick for the worst QB in the league. But even if you believe theres a 10% chance Darnold could be a top 7-8 QB, and maybe a 20% chance hes average than hes worth a flyer on a 2nd round pick. 

The Jets aren't in the same position as the 49ers. They aren't choosing between Darnold, Wilson, and Fields, they're choosing between Darnold at $5mm next year, minus a 2nd round pick vs Jimmy G at $25mm plus a second round pick vs the chance Fields or Lance drops to them at 12 overall vs a guarantee of Wilson/Fields minus a ton of draft capital to move up for them in the draft. If the 49ers traded Nick Bosa for our 2nd overall pick you think theres a chance in hell they'd still be interested in Darnold? 

 

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4 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Hes a 23 year old QB who was heralded as a top prospect who will cost a team that trades for him ~$5mm next year and is an ideal scheme fit for their system. If Darnold produced at a mediocre level over the past few seasons he would be worth 2 first rounders. He has been bad which is why no team will give us multiple firsts, but his potential upside is such that he still is worth something. 

If I was investing in a small business that had a chance to be a leader in their industry, but given their current flaws had a decent chance to be a total flop, I still may invest in it but I'd want to invest at a value that was reflective of the risk I was taking that my equity could go to zero. Thats what the teams looking to trade for Darnold are doing. If they were guaranteed the same level of performance as last year no chance in hell they'd give up a second round pick for the worst QB in the league. But even if you believe theres a 10% chance Darnold could be a top 7-8 QB, and maybe a 20% chance hes average than hes worth a flyer on a 2nd round pick. 

The Jets aren't in the same position as the 49ers. They aren't choosing between Darnold, Wilson, and Fields, they're choosing between Darnold at $5mm next year, minus a 2nd round pick vs Jimmy G at $25mm plus a second round pick vs the chance Fields or Lance drops to them at 12 overall vs a guarantee of Wilson/Fields minus a ton of draft capital to move up for them in the draft. If the 49ers traded Nick Bosa for our 2nd overall pick you think theres a chance in hell they'd still be interested in Darnold? 

 

A QB is either a scheme fit and good enough to win or not.

Sf is much closer to winning than us so that is the point.

If the point is that SF are total dumbasses and are going to take a QB we do not want that is one thing.

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I'd take a 2022 1 for Darnold rather than a 2021 2, if that's something we could swing. Would enable us to offer an additional "first round pick" in a package for Watson or allow us to control the 22 draft (3 number 1 picks) if we couldn't make that deal and drafted a QB this year.

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45 minutes ago, varjet said:

The Jets are in a bit of a bad spot here.  If someone offers a high 2 or better for Darnold, I think they have to take it and then move forward with Watson or a draft pick (preferably latter).   They may need to do something before they see the QBs throw.  I don't know whether its throw they need-its measurements. 

For me, the strategy for a Watson bid would be something on the low side that would set a floor for the Dolphins.  

I think it's a great spot, not a bad spot.  All kinds of options.  Not picking #10, for example, and hoping someone drops or trading the farm to move up.  That would be a bad spot.

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Darnold may be a decent fit for our offense and may still be moved. So much more comes into play.  Clearly there is no successful track record or connection that binds Sam here. He has never won and he’s not Jose’s guy.  So even if the jets think he can potentially do well in the system, what if they feel better about the qb available at 2? What if the value proposition favors a change?  Yea it seems odd that the niners would see a good fit that we couldn’t see but there is a lot more to it.  One thing I do fear about keeping Darnold is what happens when he throws that first int?  The boo birds will be loud and getting louder. Does saleh want to be dealing with that from game 1?

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

I'd take a 2022 1 for Darnold rather than a 2021 2, if that's something we could swing. Would enable us to offer an additional "first round pick" in a package for Watson or allow us to control the 22 draft (3 number 1 picks) if we couldn't make that deal and drafted a QB this year.

Agree, and also because the team still has more than enough draft capital this year even if they can't agree to terms for Watson, since absent such a trade they have no serious chance at contending in 2021 anyway:

#2 overall + another 1st round pick + high 2nd round pick + high 3rd round pick + another 3rd round pick. And those 5 picks are just the first 2 days of the draft -- the team has 4 other picks, too, including a 6th upgraded to a 5th.

Plus they're going to spend on other starters in free agency well before the draft.

I totally agree extra 1st rounder next year - when this new coaching staff will have a better handle on what they have and what they still need - seems more valuable. Which picks & FAs looked good right away & which looked like mistakes in Saleh's first year here? Easier to see in hindsight than guess in advance.

I don't think that'd be on the table from anyone, as a future 1st round pick we can get directly for Darnold -- just because of the optics alone, if he flops again, I really doubt it.  However they might be able to swing that as a subsequent trade for the Darnold-pick itself on day two of the draft (whether it's our original high pick #33 or, if we don't trade that one, the other theoretical 2nd rounder for Darnold). I'd do that.

There are only so many rookies a coach can fully evaluate on the field at the same time as rookies, unless half of them are injured early & that extra attention & playing time can be diverted to others. 

There's also the possibility Douglas would keep doing this (keep forgoing a later 1st or the team's 2nd for a better/1st round pick a year later) for a couple years. It's a nice luxury to have. 

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1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

I think you need to come off this. No one is arguing that Darnold isn’t a fit for our new scheme, the argument is that he isn’t a good QB or at least he isn’t the best option given the QBs available at 2. 
 

Frank Gore was a scheme fit for Gases offense, were you happy with him as our RB1 last year? 

Frank Gore was 150 years old. 

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1 hour ago, ganggreen305 said:

Praying we get a #2 for him.  Most likely a 3.

No chance they only get a 3, Zero. They could hold him a yr, let him go in free agency , and get a 3 comp pick anyway. 

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How much is Blake Bortles or Winston worth in trade.  Both of them were miles better than Darnold.  Nobody is knocking the door down for Darnold.   I'm convinced the SF rumors are a plant by the Jets to give them an out if we keep him.  

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8 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

So you agree that scheme fit shouldn't be the sole factor when evaluating players? 

Yes. I agree with that. 

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8 minutes ago, Biggs said:

How much is Blake Bortles or Winston worth in trade.  Both of them were miles better than Darnold.  Nobody is knocking the door down for Darnold.   I'm convinced the SF rumors are a plant by the Jets to give them an out if we keep him.  

What about the seven other teams, who've inquired about him.Are they plants by the Jet's?

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8 minutes ago, genot said:

What about the seven other teams, who've inquired about him.Are they plants by the Jet's?

5th or a 6th.   I don't believe any of it.   Bortles was way better and can't even get a look. 

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I agree but just on talent alone Zach is ahead of Darnold and it’s not close. 
You're alone in thinking it's not close. Google "Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson". Many on either side of the fence, but I can't find any 'expert' that thinks its not close. That's just a bad analysis, if that's what you're trying to do.
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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The rationale is that if he is a bad QB why would niners want him at all?

Finances is a key issue for both the niners and Jets.

Darnold may well be a good fit for shanahan offense. 
 

Niners perspective: he would be cheaper and younger than Garopolo and could possibly perform as well or perhaps better.

Jets perspective: Wilson is also a good fit for the offense. Would be cheaper than Darnold and can reset the rookie QB contract. Likely have higher upside. 

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Finances is a key issue for both the niners and Jets.
Darnold may well be a good fit for shanahan offense. 
 
Niners perspective: he would be cheaper and younger than Garopolo and could possibly perform as well or perhaps better.
Jets perspective: Wilson is also a good fit for the offense. Would be cheaper than Darnold and can reset the rookie QB contract. Likely have higher upside. 
If that is the Jets perspective, then it's a no brainer. We'll see.
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12 minutes ago, Barkus said:

Finances is a key issue for both the niners and Jets.

Darnold may well be a good fit for shanahan offense. 
 

Niners perspective: he would be cheaper and younger than Garopolo and could possibly perform as well or perhaps better.

Jets perspective: Wilson is also a good fit for the offense. Would be cheaper than Darnold and can reset the rookie QB contract. Likely have higher upside. 

I would swap out Darnold for Jimmy G in a heartbeat.  Trade down and try and get in position to get  Lance and sit him behind Garoppolo for a year or two.  Garoppolo has a very good contract based on his actual performance when healthy.  He's very good and he can run the O at a high level from day 1.  

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

The Jets are in a bit of a bad spot here.  If someone offers a high 2 or better for Darnold, I think they have to take it and then move forward with Watson or a draft pick (preferably latter).   They may need to do something before they see the QBs throw.  I don't know whether its throw they need-its measurements. 

For me, the strategy for a Watson bid would be something on the low side that would set a floor for the Dolphins.  

I disagree.  I think that if they get a first round pick, then they have to take it.  I'm not sold that they must take a second round pick.  Or, they get a first round pick, and give back a 4th round pick in return, if the 1st round pick is better than #20.

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39 minutes ago, isired said:
2 hours ago, oatmeal said:
I agree but just on talent alone Zach is ahead of Darnold and it’s not close. 

You're alone in thinking it's not close. Google "Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson". Many on either side of the fence, but I can't find any 'expert' that thinks its not close. That's just a bad analysis, if that's what you're trying to do.

Okay?
 

So now I should base my personal opinions on what the masses think? Many of these same idiots thought Darnold was the best QB in his class and that obviously was wrong. Many of these same people believed Trubisky was superior to Mahomes, so please I could careless about your criticism to my OPINION. 🤷‍♂️

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