Opinion: the Jets revamped receiver group points to Zach Wilson

[football guy]

24 minutes ago, rangerous said:

a lot of good points here but if the receivers benefit wilson they also benefit darnold.  maybe wilson has an edge in the deep ball and so they have some guys that can get deep but the other attribute apply to darnold too.  and, of couse, anything the jets do to bolster the oline and, by extension, the run game also helps both guys.  the shanahan system is supposed to make the offense simpler to run for the qb.

I’m not saying they don’t benefit Darnold and I think in reality you’re absolutely right. What I’m saying is that in a vacuum, the skills of these receivers complement Wilson’s playing style better than they do Darnild’s 

[football guy]

51 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Interesting take. I don't see why Mims can't play the Z receiver with Davis playing the X across from him. But I agree. I actually think the Jets have already made up their mind on Darnold and he is done with the Jets. Seems more and more certain they plan to draft Wilson and I certainly don't think LaFleur will simply run the same scheme with Wilson that he did in San Fran with Jimmy G. Whether its incorporating elements from Green Bay or just certain plays to suit Wilson's strengths. Any good coach knows you have to adapt to the strengths of your talent. That was one of Gases biggest weaknesses and why he is a terrible coach. He was too rigid in his play-calling to his own detriment. But I digress. 

As far as the WRs that JD brought in, he may have been just sticking with his mantra of bringing in explosive play-makers. And it doesn't have to be black and white. He may have signed guys that were available, wanted to be here, were explosive playmakers AND had deep threat ability to suit Wilson's strength. I think if he was JUST bringing in guys for Wilson, we would see Crowder cut, who is not an explosive guy or deep threat. But he's under contract, a reliable receiver and good target for any QB so why not keep him around if you have the cap room.   

Mims can be in a scheme that seeks to get the ball downfield, but he’s not in the 49ers style offense that asks their Z’s to be quick, elusive, and finesse. 

That said, the “49ers scheme” is just a variant of the “Shanahan scheme”. I figured they were going for the 2015-16 Atlanta offense, but the receivers they have and have added makes me feel something different. I may be completely wrong but that’s just my perspective 

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

So....not the San Fran/Shanahan Offense at all then.

Good effort and analysis, no criticism, and you could certainly be right.  Guess we'll see.

As I've said elsewhere, I believe our WR group is generally unimpressive as they stand today, but on that too, I guess we'll see.

Green Bay’s offense is the Shanahan offense. Just more like Mike’s version rather than Kyle’s

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Gangrene said:

Hypothetically, have you thought about whom else this, tweaked version of the west offense (suggested by the Jets wide receiver signings), might fit among the top four or five draft eligible qbs?

In a parallel AFC East universe, in his podcast yesterday with Bucky B., Daniel Jeremiah has suggested, based on New England's tight end and wide receiver signings (along with resigning Cam Newton), that Belichick might well trade up for Trey Lance or Justin Fields. DJ "I know that New England loves Justin Fields as a prospect."

Havent had a chance to think about it yet. Just literally had this thought riding the ferry into work this morning 

[football guy]

2 hours ago, MysticalJet2 said:

@football guy Great analysis.  So if they don’t go Wilson, do you think Darnold can be successful in the type of offense you are describing?

or any of the other QBs in the draft?

I think Darnold can be successful in most offenses. He just needs to be coached up properly 

[football guy]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Rebuttal 

Corey Davis is a savage run blocker and an ideal fit in the SF WCO which relies on Play action and the threat of the run 

Cole is just cheap crowder

they are going to cut crowder 

 

Yes I think Davis fits in a Pierre Garçon-like role. But then what about Mims? I know for sure he doesn’t fit as a Z in the SF WCO

[Grandy]

3 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Agreed. Sam is wildly inconsistent throwing deep. Made it frustrating watching him miss multiple shots with Robby. 

Darnold is one of the worst deep ball throwers I've ever seen, absolute ducks. That's one of my reasons for not wanting to build around him. People say that his highlights inspire confidence in turning him around, but even at his best he rarely stretches the field. I think the last time he's hit a guy deep in stride was Robby against the Cowboys. 

It's reasonable to think that stocking up on vertical threats means we're not going down the Darnold route. Unless we believe he'll spontaneously develop a skill that he's never really had even at his best. 

[redlichtie]

Good thread and original post @football guy 

To me the situation with Crowder is the biggest pointer here. If we are sticking with Darnold then it makes ZERO sense to move literally the only player that has produced and shown any sort of chemistry with Sam. I happen to think Crowder has earned his 11.5M and is one of the only players to emerge from the wreckage of the last two years with anything approaching credit...but....

with the revamping of WR position and the potential to further add to it in April he becomes expendable and that cap saving is considerable, that’s the tough end of this business here but with Davis & Cole onboard alongside the potential of Mims the bare bones of an NFL calibre receiver group is there and would already be better than our WR group was at any stage in the last few years, even without Crowder.

It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens with JC over the coming days and weeks, if JD wants to keep his cards close to his chest he can retain Crowder and cut after the draft, playing poker just long enough to extract maximum value in any trade of either the 2nd overall pick or Darnold...  but if Crowder goes,  that to me is the clearest possible tip of the hat that we are indeed moving on from Sam and almost certainly picking a QB at 2.
 

[rangerous]

17 minutes ago, football guy said:

I’m not saying they don’t benefit Darnold and I think in reality you’re absolutely right. What I’m saying is that in a vacuum, the skills of these receivers complement Wilson’s playing style better than they do Darnild’s 

i know.  it's just that the issues with this team really go beyond darnold and he's really getting the brunt of it.  i'm sitting on the fence.  i believe douglas, saleh, lafleur are all getting on the same page as to who and what they want in a qb.  the fact they seem to be building a team that can accept just about any qb is a good thing.

[bitonti]

11 minutes ago, football guy said:

Yes I think Davis fits in a Pierre Garçon-like role. But then what about Mims? I know for sure he doesn’t fit as a Z in the SF WCO

Mims is backup/extra X.

FWIW the dude played 7 games last year and was last seen skipping leg day to pick up a French Bulldog puppy in midtown.  Mims is obviously JD's boy but he hasn't earned a significant role on the team. Mims has potential and is an enthusiastic blocker when healthy but Saleh might not be one for coddling or feeding Denzel Mims. 

 

[football guy]

Just now, bitonti said:

Mims is backup/extra X.

FWIW the dude played 7 games last year and was last seen skipping leg day to pick up a French Bulldog puppy in midtown.  Mims is obviously JD's boy but he hasn't earned a significant role on the team. Mims has potential and is an enthusiastic blocker when healthy but Saleh might not be one for coddling or feeding Denzel Mims. 

You may be right, but what he put on film in a condensed offseason without running a single route during training camp... the guy put on a clinic on tape if not on the stat sheet. I see a guy who is capable of being Kenny Golladay-like, if not better. And if I can see that, I would think our coaches/scouts can 

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Mims is backup/extra X.

FWIW the dude played 7 games last year and was last seen skipping leg day to pick up a French Bulldog puppy in midtown.  Mims is obviously JD's boy but he hasn't earned a significant role on the team. Mims has potential and is an enthusiastic blocker when healthy but Saleh might not be one for coddling or feeding Denzel Mims. 

 

Holy hell that’s a great post. Haha 

[kdels62]

Objectively, any analysis that claims Sam Darnold is good at anything a QB has to do is probably not correct. 

[The Crusher]

Just now, football guy said:

You may be right, but what he put on film in a condensed offseason without running a single route during training camp... the guy put on a clinic on tape if not on the stat sheet. I see a guy who is capable of being Kenny Golladay-like, if not better. And if I can see that, I would think our coaches/scouts can 

He slipped leg day to pick up a French Bulldog puppy, that’s all we need to know. Haha 

[slats]

 

2 hours ago, football guy said:

Also, want to again emphasize that this is an opinion. I could be wrong, and I still think Darnold is going to be the QB because that’s what I was told early in the process. I also think Douglas prefers to stack up on a ton of draft picks and build around the QB. I still know that the coaches love Darnold. But sometimes sources are wrong, and things don’t always have to be mutually exclusive. I think Darnold can be a really good QB with this coaching staff, but I also see a bunch of receivers whose strengths correlate with Zach Wilson’s strengths better than they do Darnold’s. 

So no, I’m not “joining sides” of anyone. I’m simply giving a perspective and an opinion. 

It blows me away that this is still your opinion. I really do see the logic in rolling with Sam one more year. By trading down from that #2, they'd have a ton of draft picks to work with this year and, probably, next. There's no doubt in my mind that that appeals to Joe Douglas. As unpopular as it would be with our particular sample of Jets fans, it would also lower expectations in Robert Saleh's first year as head coach. For Saleh's part, he'd be more able to focus on working with the whole team to create the culture he's looking to build - instead of having to put the bulk of his focus on his rookie QB. And that goes for LaFleur, too, trying to install an offense, not just training wheel a rookie into the league. 

I understand what you're saying about these WR's downfield ability, but I think they bring a physical presence to the group. Something that will help with the play action and screen games, too. Might be why he let Robby walk, as a guy who's only a deep threat - because he always liked the idea of building around Sam... ? 

All of the so-called leaks are pointing to the Jets taking Wilson. All of the so-called leaks in free agency this year have been wrong. You decide. 

[C Mart]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Rebuttal 

Corey Davis is a savage run blocker and an ideal fit in the SF WCO which relies on Play action and the threat of the run 

Cole is just cheap crowder

they are going to cut crowder 

 

 

 

 

[football guy]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

It blows me away that this is still your opinion. I really do see the logic in rolling with Sam one more year. By trading down from that #2, they'd have a ton of draft picks to work with this year and, probably, next. There's no doubt in my mind that that appeals to Joe Douglas. As unpopular as it would be with our particular sample of Jets fans, it would also lower expectations in Robert Saleh's first year as head coach. For Saleh's part, he'd be more able to focus on working with the whole team to create the culture he's looking to build - instead of having to put the bulk of his focus on his rookie QB. And that goes for LaFleur, too, trying to install an offense, not just training wheel a rookie into the league. 

I understand what you're saying about these WR's downfield ability, but I think they bring a physical presence to the group. Something that will help with the play action and screen games, too. Might be why he let Robby walk, as a guy who's only a deep threat - because he always liked the idea of building around Sam... ? 

All of the so-called leaks are pointing to the Jets taking Wilson. All of the so-called leaks in free agency this year have been wrong. You decide. 

I don't put much weight into the so-called leaks; so much of them are just informed speculation. I put weight into the people I've spoken to personally, people who are paid to know, and they had reason to believe Sam would be back as of last week. I'll absolutely follow up in about a week to see if things changed, especially with Wilson's pro-day nearing close.  

Personally, I believe that drafting Wilson is more risky but can reap more reward. People who say bringing back Darnold is risky simply say so from an emotional perspective that is ultra-focused on finding a "franchise QB", but I don't see that at all nor do I think the Jets. By sticking with Darnold, the staff gets a crack at 2 young QBs instead of one; if Darnold fails, it won't be their fault and they'll get a second swing taking their "own" QB. It also gives them the opportunity to expedite the rebuild of the roster by investing all that capital in positions around the QB. If Darnold succeeds great! If not, they can plop in a QB of their choosing whether it be a veteran or a draft pick.

With Wilson, he's your guy, and you're sinking or swimming with him (unless Woody Johnson becomes like the Bears ownership, which I don't see being the case). If they go this route they're still well positioned to build around the QB considering the draft capital they accumulated, but it wouldn't be as expedited. 

 

I've said it in other posts, I think Wilson is a phenomenal prospect. I would take him over Trevor Lawrence in a vacuum. But with that, the information I have counters that and I understand that the Jets can build a long-term and sustainable talent base better by trading down from #2 than they could by drafting a QB at #2.

I don't want to come off as someone whose playing the middle, but the truth is I will be happy with Darnold or Wilson. I think the Jets will be a better football team in the short-and-long term if they trade down, I think the Jets have the potential to land the next great QB if they take Wilson. Both are appealing to me. What I won't be happy with is drafting a QB not-named-Wilson or sticking at #2 and taking a non-QB. The good news is I'm 99.99% sure neither happens. To add another layer to this, I would really love Watson here too, but I'm trading Darnold, the Seahawks' two-first round picks (2021/2022), and our 2nd. That's it. I'm not going to destroy the chance to build a sustainable winner for one player, no matter how good I think he is. Watson was just on a football team with more talent and better coaching than we had and they won 4 games. What makes anyone think he comes here and leads us to a Super Bowl if we mortgage valuable draft capital/defensive stars for him? Ain't happening. 

[win4ever]

I'm going to agree that it fits a certain mold of QB, I'm going to disagree that it's Wilson.  

I feel like they are going for analytical separation on the field for receivers.  Both Cole/Davis performed well in those aspects, but neither are speed demons.  All of them are intermediate guys that can get deep with double moves, which take longer to develop.  In Davis' case, it was helped by Henry, and in Cole's case, Robinson to an extent.  

I don't think they are going for the Wilson approach, because that's more in line with how the Chiefs set up their roster.  One short yardage/intermediate guy (Kelce), and then vertical threats galore.  Essentially the allure of Wilson is that you would either have to play Tampa 2 or any variation of having 2 deep safeties (ala Bucs in the SB) or the QB will sit back there and pick you apart because they have guys that can run by one on one match ups.  

We seem to be going more towards the intermediate separation, which is what the Rams have been focusing on, getting good route runners to create pockets, without just being all about the verticals.  That intermediate game doesn't scream Wilson to me because his one big strength is his deep ball aggressiveness (to a detriment at times).   

I think it's shading more towards Fields/Jones and to an extent Darnold.  

I'm on the record thinking it's going to be Fields as the pick, because the guys they've picked up are very good run blockers are well.  The overall idea being that a good running game is key to the mismatches in a Shanahan system.  However, the addition of a mobile QB (and Wilson is of the Darnold/Mayfield - oh look they can run ilk) adds another dimension to the scheme's versatility.  I don't think Wilson's mobility translates into the NFL like Fields, while both of them have very accurate deep passing arms.  

Obviously too early to tell if there are other moves, but I'm not sure it indicates Wilson.  If it were Wilson for sure, I think we would have gone after Fuller harder, and maybe even Samuels.  I think they are going after someone who can be deadly accurate in the intermediate area (I believe Fields is better than Wilson on this, Jones is probably the best) that can still keep the vertical threat.  By scouting, Darnold should fit that perfectly, but his downfield passing has gone wayward lately.  

As you mentioned, just my opinion, could be completely wrong.  

[Mogglez]

3 hours ago, football guy said:

Also, want to again emphasize that this is an opinion. I could be wrong, and I still think Darnold is going to be the QB because that’s what I was told early in the process. I also think Douglas prefers to stack up on a ton of draft picks and build around the QB. I still know that the coaches love Darnold. But sometimes sources are wrong, and things don’t always have to be mutually exclusive. I think Darnold can be a really good QB with this coaching staff, but I also see a bunch of receivers whose strengths correlate with Zach Wilson’s strengths better than they do Darnold’s. 

So no, I’m not “joining sides” of anyone. I’m simply giving a perspective and an opinion. 

Exactly this.  Between 2 people I have connections with, I’m still being given 60/40 in favor of Sam from one source, and the other source believes Sam will now be traded.    

My own opinion?  Sam will likely be moved.  The odds I was given in the beginning have almost shrunk to a 50/50 split, and the other person has gone from “run it back” to “he’s probably dealt”.  I just believe that the more this process plays out, the more they’ll come to a consensus to just move on and draft Zach Wilson, who I believe is the guy they all love.

[Gangrene]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Havent had a chance to think about it yet. Just literally had this thought riding the ferry into work this morning 

The original thought was an interesting read, thanks for sharing it.

[prime21]

11 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Exactly this.  Between 2 people I have connections with, I’m still being given 60/40 in favor of Sam from one source, and the other source believes Sam will now be traded.    

My own opinion?  Sam will likely be moved.  The odds I was given in the beginning have almost shrunk to a 50/50 split, and the other person has gone from “run it back” to “he’s probably dealt”.  I just believe that the more this process plays out, the more they’ll come to a consensus to just move on and draft Zach Wilson, who I believe is the guy they all love.

@Mogglez @football guy Do you know if they have  spoken to other teams about trading the #2 pick?  Knowing what the return is would definitely sway the 50/50 or 60/40 voting for keeping or trading Sam.   

[UnknownJetFan]

5 hours ago, KRL said:

If stretching the field vertically is going to be a key element in
our offense there's no way Darnold is staying, he's been way too
inconsistent.  In addition, did we sign Cole over Smith-Schuster
because he's a better deep threat?

Cole is also a very good KR/PR which we have had 0 at and impact games very much.

[football guy]

1 minute ago, prime21 said:

@Mogglez @football guy Do you know if they have  spoken to other teams about trading the #2 pick?  Knowing what the return is would definitely sway the 50/50 or 60/40 voting for keeping or trading Sam.   

Carolina

[adobolo2]

I did read or see some NFL expert say yesterday the jets are going to run the green bay offence rather than the 49ers, so to hear that twice in two days it has legs.

I've always been led to believe sam would be successful in the west coast system designed by Kyle but if that is not going main base of our new offence then perhaps wilson is the best option.

I had my heart set on Pitts though?

Thanks for the analysis @football guy brilliant as always

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

You don't think it is significantly better than last years group?

Sure it's significantly better.  And yet it is still probably the worst WR unit in the AFC East.

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

And we might still draft a WR.

Then I'll evaluate that unit after we draft them.

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

What would you think if we packaged Sam and #34 for Carolina's pick at 8 and then picked Deontay Smith as our Tyreek Hill?

I'd think we ripped off Carolina cause Sam isn't worth close to that, lol!

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I mean I don't think it is a Top 10 WR corps as is but I think it is at least average. We were super far from average last year

We were the worst in the NFL last year.

Now we're just amongst the worst in the NFL, lol, with "potential".

Sure, if Davis rises up and proves he IS a #1, and catches for 1,300 yards and 12 TD's, and Mims plays all 16 and shows he's legit, and we draft a guy and he's great too, sure, wow, we'd all love that.

If Davis is what he's been (a #2 who has a tendency to disappear, and was the 3rd option on his offense) and Mims is 2020 Mims and misses substantial time again, and we don't draft anyone at WR, and we've dumped Crowder for :reasons:, then yeah, we're still sh*t.

[Guilhermezmc]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Exactly this.  Between 2 people I have connections with, I’m still being given 60/40 in favor of Sam from one source, and the other source believes Sam will now be traded.    

My own opinion?  Sam will likely be moved.  The odds I was given in the beginning have almost shrunk to a 50/50 split, and the other person has gone from “run it back” to “he’s probably dealt”.  I just believe that the more this process plays out, the more they’ll come to a consensus to just move on and draft Zach Wilson, who I believe is the guy they all love.

God please answer our prayers

[Cbucco19]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Exactly this.  Between 2 people I have connections with, I’m still being given 60/40 in favor of Sam from one source, and the other source believes Sam will now be traded.    

My own opinion?  Sam will likely be moved.  The odds I was given in the beginning have almost shrunk to a 50/50 split, and the other person has gone from “run it back” to “he’s probably dealt”.  I just believe that the more this process plays out, the more they’ll come to a consensus to just move on and draft Zach Wilson, who I believe is the guy they all love.

@Mogglezit honestly just makes so much sense ! 

[Philc1]

48 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

I did read or see some NFL expert say yesterday the jets are going to run the green bay offence rather than the 49ers, so to hear that twice in two days it has legs.

I've always been led to believe sam would be successful in the west coast system designed by Kyle but if that is not going main base of our new offence then perhaps wilson is the best option.

I had my heart set on Pitts though?

Thanks for the analysis @football guy brilliant as always

What’s the “Green Bay offense”?  Aaron Rodgers calling his own plays in the huddle?

[adobolo2]

5 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

What’s the “Green Bay offense”?  Aaron Rodgers calling his own plays in the huddle?

Yes, exact same as the Gase offence with manning!

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Carolina

Si.

[prime21]

Si.

Thank you both. That’s a really good spot to draft from and pick up additional picks.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Carolina

Do you hear that the jets can make this trade with Carolina up until draft day, while the jets are on the clock, or would it be made before that?  

[football guy]

23 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Do you hear that the jets can make this trade with Carolina up until draft day, while the jets are on the clock, or would it be made before that?  

If the Jets are trading down I was told it would happen before the draft

[Jetsbb]

@football guy@Mogglez

Abert Breer thinks Darnold is traded

Adam Schefter has said his "belief and sense" is that Darnold is traded

Chris Mortenson has said If Zach Wilson checks the boxes at his pro day Darnold will be traded

Connor Rodgers who has sources in building believes strongly Darnold is traded

Ustadium  who has sources in building believes Darnold will be traded

Jason Laconfera hears from executives and General managers that Jets will pick Zack Wilson and not even entertain offers for #2 pick

Perer King believes Darnold will be traded

Connor Hughes believes Darnold traded and Wilson drafted

Rich Cimini has done a 180 now beleiving Darnold traded and Douglas likes Zach Wilson

Craig Carton who knows someone in the building believes Darnold has played his last game with the Jets

Unless Joe Douglas has performed the ultimate con job it is not a matter of if but when.

 

 

[adobolo2]

10 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

@football guy@Mogglez

Abert Breer thinks Darnold is traded

Adam Schefter has said his "belief and sense" is that Darnold is traded

Chris Mortenson has said If Zach Wilson checks the boxes at his pro day Darnold will be traded

Connor Rodgers who has sources in building believes strongly Darnold is traded

Ustadium  who has sources in building believes Darnold will be traded

Jason Laconfera hears from executives and General managers that Jets will pick Zack Wilson and not even entertain offers for #2 pick

Perer King believes Darnold will be traded

Connor Hughes believes Darnold traded and Wilson drafted

Rich Cimini has done a 180 now beleiving Darnold traded and Douglas likes Zach Wilson

Craig Carton who knows someone in the building believes Darnold has played his last game with the Jets

Unless Joe Douglas has performed the ultimate con job it is not a matter of if but when.

 

 

I'm not saying any of the jurnalists above are wrong, but the one thing this free agency has tought us is no one knows what's going on in the jets front office. Not one leak of a player deal was mentioned by a jurnalists before they were signed.

So I'd say all the information we are getting from these jurnalists is a guess by trying to read what moves we have made so far.