Opinion: the Jets revamped receiver group points to Zach Wilson

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Also, want to again emphasize that this is an opinion. I could be wrong, and I still think Darnold is going to be the QB because that’s what I was told early in the process. I also think Douglas prefers to stack up on a ton of draft picks and build around the QB. I still know that the coaches love Darnold. But sometimes sources are wrong, and things don’t always have to be mutually exclusive. I think Darnold can be a really good QB with this coaching staff, but I also see a bunch of receivers whose strengths correlate with Zach Wilson’s strengths better than they do Darnold’s. 

So no, I’m not “joining sides” of anyone. I’m simply giving a perspective and an opinion. 

Do you ultimately think that the decision to keep or move on from darnold will come down to how good of a trade douglas can get to move out of 2?  In other words is he more or less ambivalent, and would trade if it made sense or go with wilson if it made sense from a trade perspective?

[derp]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Rebuttal 

Corey Davis is a savage run blocker and an ideal fit in the SF WCO which relies on Play action and the threat of the run 

Cole is just cheap crowder

they are going to cut crowder 

 

I do think Crowder is getting cut. Don’t think he’s a great fit in the offense and he’s overpaid for the year based on this market.

Both SF and GB are in three or more wide line half the time and two or less half the time.

To me, Cole is Mims insurance. He’s an receiver if Mims isn’t ready to be relied upon in two wide sets this year but not good enough to force Mims to the third receiver position. Good competition between those two.

Chance they get a comp pick for Cole if he has a good year as well.

Still think they draft someone too but maybe it’ll be later and for more of a gadget role.

[prime21]

@football guyHow Devonta Smith look in this offense?  

If we trade down then of course there will be many ways we can go.

[undertow]

What does not upgrading the oline point to?

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Rebuttal 

Corey Davis is a savage run blocker and an ideal fit in the SF WCO which relies on Play action and the threat of the run 

Cole is just cheap crowder

they are going to cut crowder 

 

I'll continue to say cutting Crowder, unless absolutely required for cap space, is a dumb move.

In the modern NFL there are enough balls for 4 WR's.  

I don't want to repeat 2020 when Mims strains his hammy again or Davis suddenly comes up lame at some point in the season.

Been there, done that.  Depth is vital, and you don't cut the decent producer you have at one of your weakest positions unless you literally have no other choice.

And we have choices.

[Grandy]

12 minutes ago, football guy said:

Also, want to again emphasize that this is an opinion. I could be wrong, and I still think Darnold is going to be the QB because that’s what I was told early in the process. I also think Douglas prefers to stack up on a ton of draft picks and build around the QB. I still know that the coaches love Darnold. But sometimes sources are wrong, and things don’t always have to be mutually exclusive. I think Darnold can be a really good QB with this coaching staff, but I also see a bunch of receivers whose strengths correlate with Zach Wilson’s strengths better than they do Darnold’s. 

So no, I’m not “joining sides” of anyone. I’m simply giving a perspective and an opinion. 

A question if you can answer it.

Do you believe there is any merit to the reports of there being a FO split between keeping Darnold or drafting Wilson? Like, say Douglas wants Wilson, meanwhile Saleh would want to give Darnold another go at things.

[Adoni Beast]

[C Mart]

53 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I'd also add that they are also continuing to prioritize high character guys and wide receivers who give effort in blocking. Play action is going to be a big factor in the new offense, so it's nice to see that the FA pickups are going to fit in the new system as well.

I have yet to read anything about these FAs signings where there are questions about character, attitude, professionalism etc...

[C Mart]

9 minutes ago, undertow said:

What does not upgrading the oline point to?

April 29 & April 30

[sec101row23]

29 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Rebuttal 

Corey Davis is a savage run blocker and an ideal fit in the SF WCO which relies on Play action and the threat of the run 

Cole is just cheap crowder

they are going to cut crowder 

 

If JD takes a receiver in the first 3 rounds,  I could see JD trading Crowder for a 5th or 6th prior to the start of the 4th round on Saturday morning.  Regardless, Crowders salary pays for approximately 85% of the rookies salaries this year, I do think he’ll be moved. 

[PCP63]

2 hours ago, KRL said:

If stretching the field vertically is going to be a key element in
our offense there's no way Darnold is staying, he's been way too
inconsistent.  In addition, did we sign Cole over Smith-Schuster
because he's a better deep threat?

Just semantics, really, but "vertical" offenses, at least how people refer to them, actually stretch the field HORIZONTALLY. Stretching it vertically would be something like a comeback/flat pattern, whereas a horizontal stretch would be an all-go pattern. An all-go pattern has more in common with a spacing pattern than a hi-lo pattern.

[football guy]

25 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Do you ultimately think that the decision to keep or move on from darnold will come down to how good of a trade douglas can get to move out of 2?  In other words is he more or less ambivalent, and would trade if it made sense or go with wilson if it made sense from a trade perspective?

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

[sec101row23]

2 minutes ago, football guy said:

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

Or, they haven’t finished addressing the WR position yet.  Lots of RAC receivers in the draft.  

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

I think from a trade value perspective, douglas probably knows he can get great value for that slot and can add real draft capital to beef up more positions.  And I think more here would get behind that move, if we actually believed darnold could become even a decent qb.  But most here don’t think so.

[Adoni Beast]

Just now, football guy said:

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

But here’s the thing. It’s not JUST value aspects that matter. Part of the weight of the decision is

• Resetting the rookie QB contract.
• Potentially passing on better QB prospects this year for the unknown of 2022 class.
• Allocating $ in an extension for Darnold, even if it’s considered good market value is still significant space taken up on a questionable player.

The long term financial implication increase the value of a rookie QB vs. keeping Sam Darnold.

I think if Wilson/Fields are at worst evaluated evenly with Sam, they still draft a QB. I don’t think they’ll have to be miles ahead.

[Smashmouth]

While I said a few weeks ago to trade out of 2 and draft Mac Jones and some WR's and OL and possibly a RB I'm changing my mind as of late watching more of Zack Wilson. 

I think Wilson at 2 is the better move along with keeping Darnold to create competition at the position.

I wonder if there is an outside chance Wilson moves to number 1 for the Jags . Just thinking out loud since he does seem to be getting a lot of attention lately.

[Cbucco19]

4 minutes ago, football guy said:

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

@football guy I agree buddy ! I think they like Sam but don’t Love him ! I just feel like they are going to fall in love with Wilson after his interviews and workouts ! Also the contract with sam is also an issue ! If you look at how all the contracts were done it seems they r all 2-3 years , right around that 3rd year for a Rookie Qb where u may spend more in FA if close !!

[peekskill68]

I honestly don't think we'd be having this debate if Darnold wasn't entering his 4th year.  Resetting the QB clock is a JD type move. So is trading out of the #2 slot. That's his inner conflict in a nutshell...

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, Cbucco19 said:

@football guy I agree buddy ! I think they like Sam but don’t Love him ! I just feel like they are going to fall in love with Wilson after his interviews and workouts ! Also the contract with sam is also an issue ! If you look at how all the contracts were done it seems they r all 2-3 years , right around that 3rd year for a Rookie Qb where u may spend more in FA if close !!

The thing is, if they don’t love wilson, they may just trade out and take all those picks.

[JustInFudge]

100% believe it.  We are the Jets, after all.

[Pac]

The issue with the hypothesis is if this were true, they would have traded Darnold 2 weeks ago when there were more suitors and conceivably a higher return available.

Everything I've seen this week screams running it back with Sam, trading down a couple spots, drafting Sewell at 4.

I guess we'll see.

[PepPep]

Interesting take. I don't see why Mims can't play the Z receiver with Davis playing the X across from him. But I agree. I actually think the Jets have already made up their mind on Darnold and he is done with the Jets. Seems more and more certain they plan to draft Wilson and I certainly don't think LaFleur will simply run the same scheme with Wilson that he did in San Fran with Jimmy G. Whether its incorporating elements from Green Bay or just certain plays to suit Wilson's strengths. Any good coach knows you have to adapt to the strengths of your talent. That was one of Gases biggest weaknesses and why he is a terrible coach. He was too rigid in his play-calling to his own detriment. But I digress. 

As far as the WRs that JD brought in, he may have been just sticking with his mantra of bringing in explosive play-makers. And it doesn't have to be black and white. He may have signed guys that were available, wanted to be here, were explosive playmakers AND had deep threat ability to suit Wilson's strength. I think if he was JUST bringing in guys for Wilson, we would see Crowder cut, who is not an explosive guy or deep threat. But he's under contract, a reliable receiver and good target for any QB so why not keep him around if you have the cap room.   

[Pac]

Plus Zach Wilson looks about as manly as Zach Morris...  I can't see JD and Saleh drafting a boy band QB.

[genot]

20 minutes ago, football guy said:

Yes. The information has always pointed to Darnold because Douglas is high on him, the coaching staff is high on him, and the big-picture organizational decision comes down to which is more valuable: QB Darnold + #2 value in a trade, or QB #2 + value of Darnold in a trade. That, coupled with all the other information—not analysts, not speculation on scheme, but information from the sources—rationally leaves me thinking Darnold.  

My opinion on the types of receivers the Jets have points points to Wilson. That’s merely my perspective from my lens only, not considering the information. What do I know? I’m not a scout, I’m just speculating at the end of the day. Maybe the team see these guys differently; maybe they believe they can be RAC monsters. I personally don’t see it. 

 

Didn't you post that they we're high on Waddle. I know that Anthony Swartz in the later rds is of interest to them.

[Adoni Beast]

17 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

While I said a few weeks ago to trade out of 2 and draft Mac Jones and some WR's and OL and possibly a RB I'm changing my mind as of late watching more of Zack Wilson. 

I think Wilson at 2 is the better move along with keeping Darnold to create competition at the position.

I wonder if there is an outside chance Wilson moves to number 1 for the Jags . Just thinking out loud since he does seem to be getting a lot of attention lately.

I think drafting Wilson and keeping Sam is a great idea.

• Let Sam start the season

• Let the rookie learn

• Increase Sam’s trade value

• Or Sam goes ballistic pro bowl level and you have both QB’s as a trade chips.

[Dinamite]

3 hours ago, football guy said:

The Packers also run a variation of the Shanahan scheme, but unlike the 49ers, they were the most prolific deep ball passing team in the league in 2020 (comparatively, the 49ers were among the least productive and attempted among the least amount of deep balls over the past few years); that’s what happens when you have one of the games best deep ball passers in Aaron Rodgers. Take a look at the 2020 stats to see what I mean. 

If deep ball accuracy is a requirement, wouldn't Justin Fields be preferred then? I thought he had better numbers overall in that dept (compared to Wilson) across NCAA careers.

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, football guy said:

I'm going to preface this by saying it is just an opinion; I have no inside information here, haven't asked anyone a question yet (I intend to), and is purely based on my own personal observations. With that said, if the adds of Corey Davis and Keelan Cole indicate anything, it's that we should not expect this to be a San Francisco-style short-passing offense. Whether or not that means a change at QB is coming, I don't know, but its my opinion that this personnel meshes better with Zach Wilson's game than Sam Darnold's. 

I don't want to make this about "whose better" because truthfully, we don't know who is. Darnold could end up being an All-Pro and Wilson a bust for all we know, so I'm just going to focus on the playing styles and skill-sets. 

Both Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson are great athletes at the QB position and have an uncanny ability to make incredible throws into windows that no one thought was possible. It's not because of their arm strength, it's instincts and field vision. It's their ability to move and throw on the run and make these occasional "how did he do that" throws that appeals most to the "Shanahan tree" of coaches. Both QBs have an erratic trait because they're so natural outside of structure, and the Shanahan system does a phenomenal of channeling those abilities within structure. I know that sounds like an oxymoron but that's the best way I can describe it. But while Darnold and Wilson have the baseline similarities that the "Shanahan" system requires/desires, the two QBs are stylistically different. 

Sam Darnold has plenty of arm and is capable of making spectacular throws deep both within structure and outside of it, but he finds his rhythm on the move, off-platform, hitting receivers in the short-intermediate section of the field. Sam is at his best in chaotic situations where he can escape and make a play; for whatever reason it gets him more focused than the mundane QB tasks. He is not a rhythmic deep/contested ball passer and is much more natural throwing to receivers in stride. Unlike Sam, Zach Wilson gets in a rhythm by throwing deep passes. He's not quite as natural throwing off-platform as Sam, but he can. He's not as natural as Sam is escaping pressure, but he's similarly good at throwing on the run. I wouldn’t call his arm strength rare, but his instincts and accuracy on deep throws are. He doesn’t hesitate to put the ball in the air in contested situations. I'm not going to throw the stats out there, so you're going to have to trust me when I say that’s Denzel Mims (6'3", 207), that’s Corey Davis (6'3", 209), that’s Keelan Cole (6'1", 194). All of these guys have a deep-ball element to their game, and have thrived in contested situations. To an extent, that would explain why Perriman was still an option to return (which had legs; I don’t think it’s a coincidence he signed with Detroit after the Cole deal was announce). 

Ultimately, Douglas makes the call on who the team signs, and as we've come to learn, Davis was his top WR. At first, I saw that as a signal Douglas was favoring his scouting instincts, and that if the Jets were running a SF-style passing offense, that would mean Denzel Mims may have a relegated role. Both Davis and Mims are "X" receivers in the Kyle Shanahan offense, and if you looked at the last time Kyle Shanahan had a receiver like them, it was Julio Jones. He used Julio in a variety of different ways that no other coaches had used him before - mostly on play-action attempts over the middle. That's what Davis thrives at in the present, and with Mims still needing to develop I kind of wondered how they could incorporate Mims if Davis was the primary X. What I didn't consider (and should have) is that while there has been some disagreement on how the coaches and front office ranked receivers, Douglas is not the type of GM to dismiss the coaches input and he's not the type to give up on a talent like Mims quickly. He knows what the coaching staff is looking to build, and that very well be an offense more similar to his brother’s than his mentor’s. 

The “San Francisco offense” they’re going to bring may be my name only; it may be schematically similar, but the play-calling philosophy may be different. I think they’re going to run the ball a ton (putting stock into receivers who can block), they’re going to implement the outside zone, they will add some elements of Kyle’s passing scheme, and they will be among the league leaders in play-action passing attempts, but if I’m evaluating these receiver adds on the surface, I see a LaFleur offense that’s going to attack downfield far more often then his mentor, and most likely taking pages out of his brother Matt’s [Packers] playbook. 

The Packers also run a variation of the Shanahan scheme, but unlike the 49ers, they were the most prolific deep ball passing team in the league in 2020 (comparatively, the 49ers were among the least productive and attempted among the least amount of deep balls over the past few years); that’s what happens when you have one of the games best deep ball passers in Aaron Rodgers. Take a look at the 2020 stats to see what I mean. 

There’s that old saying, “adapt or die.” The only way to be successful in any walk of life is by being adaptable. That’s no different I’m coaching; if you can’t adjust to your talent, you won’t succeed. Regardless who the QB is, Denzel Mims is a real asset, and I hope the team realizes they can’t let his talent go to waste just because he doesn’t fit a certain scheme (he wouldn’t fit the SF Shanahan offense as well as an offense that attacks vertically more consistently). Corey Davis and Keelan Cole are more versatile, but they too have shown flashes of consistency as deep/contested ball receivers. As I began, I'm going to say again that I have no inside information here, just purely my perspective, but if the Jets plan on maximizing all of their receivers skill-sets, my intuition tells me that LaFleur will be running the Shanahan offense with a “Green Bay” twist—it won’t be as pass-heavy as his brother Matt LaFleur’s offense, but similarly, will implement a lot of vertical passing. There's a reason why some compare Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers, and it's not because he has the freakish arm that Aaron does, but it's because they have the same playing style. 

If we're to evaluate these moves on the surface, I would think that this receiving group is a better fit for what a QB with the playing style of Zach Wilson rather than Sam Darnold. We should know if that's the case soon enough. 

Phenomenal post. I have been thinking this exact thing, but you said it really eloquently. Usually the Shanahan offense favors fast YAC guys, which really would be great for Sam, but we are building a group of bigger contested throw type guys which definitely favors Wilson. Plus Wilson (despite what the haters want to think) DOES really play like Rodgers. Plus let's not forget Cager as a 4th 5th guy who is also in the same mold.

Plus, it is so incredibly easy to connect the dots. All it takes is this:

Matt:  You know Wilson reminds me a little of Aaron in his playstyle

Mike: Really?

<checks tape> goes and explains his offensive plan to Saleh based around Wilson.

JD approves starts building that.

So Shanahan Zone run game sprinkled with outside option and deep shots. BTW, pretty sure this is the BYU offense as well.

 

[rangerous]

a lot of good points here but if the receivers benefit wilson they also benefit darnold.  maybe wilson has an edge in the deep ball and so they have some guys that can get deep but the other attribute apply to darnold too.  and, of couse, anything the jets do to bolster the oline and, by extension, the run game also helps both guys.  the shanahan system is supposed to make the offense simpler to run for the qb.

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, rex-n-effect said:

While I don't entirely disagree--would it make much sense to bring in a receiving corp without speed for any QB? Even on intermediate throws you want the opportunity for receivers to break away from the offense and pick up big YAC. 

The pats run 5TE sets with short and intermediate plays because their offense is designed around college football concepts of confusion and fast plays but I can't think of many teams playing without at least some deep ball potential. 

 

Perhaps getting that speed/RAC guy is part of JD's plans for year 5 of the rebuild after we sign some more $7M outside linebackers?

 

[jetstream23]

What the Jets do (or don't) at RB, FB, and TE might tell me more about the style of offense they want to run moreso than the WRs we sign, particularly the WRs on one-year deals.

[CTM]

35 minutes ago, Pac said:

Plus Zach Wilson looks about as manly as Zach Morris...  I can't see JD and Saleh drafting a boy band QB.

you were a chad pennington fan

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So....not the San Fran/Shanahan Offense at all then.

Good effort and analysis, no criticism, and you could certainly be right.  Guess we'll see.

As I've said elsewhere, I believe our WR group is generally unimpressive as they stand today, but on that too, I guess we'll see.

You don't think it is significantly better than last years group? And we might still draft a WR. What would you think if we packaged Sam and #34 for Carolina's pick at 8 and then picked Deontay Smith as our Tyreek Hill?

I mean I don't think it is a Top 10 WR corps as is but I think it is at least average. We were super far from average last year

[football guy]

30 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

If deep ball accuracy is a requirement, wouldn't Justin Fields be preferred then? I thought he had better numbers overall in that dept (compared to Wilson) across NCAA careers.

Here’s what I’ll say on this: if the Jets were to blow two elite scenarios (stick with Darnol, surround the team with talent; draft Wilson), I’d be out as a Jets fan. I don’t care about the stats or analytics; Fields is far inferior

[football guy]

42 minutes ago, genot said:

Didn't you post that they we're high on Waddle. I know that Anthony Swartz in the later rds is of interest to them.

Very high on Waddle. They met with Anthony Schwartz too. 

[redlichtie]

3 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Agreed. Sam is wildly inconsistent throwing deep. Made it frustrating watching him miss multiple shots with Robby. 

Which is why you need to change your username to “samtorobbyincomplete4thdown”