Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)

[Greenseed4]

Zach is good at side-stepping pressure in front of him.  Locking up his blindside with both LT and LG means he only has to worry about the 1 or 2 rushers on his right, and then get rid of the ball quickly.

In theory, it’s a great strategy. 

[Sammybighead]

26 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

Responses in red.

To your point 1, I don't think he misjudged anything. I don't have proof to present so this is just my opinion, I think JD had high end grades on 3 guys (sewell, slater and AVT) and wanted one of them. The second slater went to chargers he pulled the trigger on the trade (which was set up well in advance, NOT DURING THE DRAFT). He didn't want Darrisaw. And just because you think all lineman can play all positions effectively across the oline doesn't make it true. AVT was voted USC best olineman of the year as a guard over Austin Jackson who was a mid first round pick last year. He played excellent as a guard, moved to tackle and was excellent again.

I don't get why people are trying to smear the shine of this kid but I couldn't be more ecstatic with the pick. I've said it before, this is the first draft ever that I essentially got the guys I wanted with our premium picks. That never happens. 

[Irish Jet]

PFF aren’t analytical at all. Their rankings are purely subjective grades based largely on their scoring system which is also subjective.

The site can have it’s uses but the amount of people who treat their grades like gospel, who use them to tell you insultingly stupid claims like Perriman > Robby is just ridiculous.

They have no idea how the Jets ranked AVT relative to other lineman. They keep talking about the availability of Christian Derrisaw who is not projected to move inside as effectively as AVT, that creep Sam Monson keeps talking about how Wyatt Davis would have been available in the third, as if there isn’t a f*cking reason he’s available in the third.

[RogerVick1980]

PFF and  a lot of analytics people think that an oline  you should get quantity and that you don’t necassarily need an elite lineman  the more important  thing is you don’t have a weak link that can be exploited.

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

PFF aren’t analytical at all. Their rankings are purely subjective grades based largely on their scoring system which is also subjective.

0-1 is not that subjective. 

[UntouchableCrew]

I'd worry about losing that draft capital more if we couldn't afford to lose it.

By most accounts we walked out of the draft with three top 25 players... And we have two firsts and two seconds next year.

[RutgersJetFan]

7 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Does someone need to draw you a diagram?

The craziest part of all of this is that the analytics say the Jets had a fantastic draft. I don't get what's so horrible about discussing the means to achieve the end. 

[RogerVick1980]

6 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

PFF aren’t analytical at all. Their rankings are purely subjective grades based largely on their scoring system which is also subjective.

The site can have it’s uses but the amount of people who treat their grades like gospel, who use them to tell you insultingly stupid claims like Perriman > Robby is just ridiculous.

They have no idea how the Jets ranked AVT relative to other lineman. They keep talking about the availability of Christian Derrisaw who is not projected to move inside as effectively as AVT, that creep Sam Monson keeps talking about how Wyatt Davis would have been available in the third, as if there isn’t a f*cking reason he’s available in the third.

Yeah I dont get how  a bunch of guys whove never played the game have somehow mastered exactly how to grade each player.

I truly think football is the hardest to judge players because of so many nuances.

I think it’s impossible too 100 percent judge all these players  accurately unless you’re in the film/coaches room with them and know exactly what the  coach wanted out of them on each play.

 

 

 

[Shockwave]

56 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

1. JD loves picks, you cant tell me that he didnt have a great reason to move up

2. its now been reported that NE was hot after AVT at 15 which is why JD traded up

3. as i said only other elite prospect was Darrisaw and he is a T only

4. who is to say that both AVT and Darrisaw would not be gone by 23?

5. both things can be true, we gave away valuable picks AND we got the player that we thought we needed to have 

If Darrisaw was Elite he wouldn't have been passed up by 22 teams. Especially by multiple teams that needed a LT. 

[y2k8]

 

You know who got positive grades by so-called experts immediately following every draft?

Mike MacCagnan.

 

[Shockwave]

1 hour ago, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.

The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.

They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.

Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.

I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.

I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.

The analytics only deals with numbers and value.

 

 

Just my opinion here. 

In this years draft we drafted 10 players. In next years draft we have like 13 picks. Thats before UDFA's and FA. At a certain point we are going to be drafting backups high meaning we are not going to have depth issues. 

To compete with Mahomes eventually we need several All Pro's. Not Fill in's or JAG's. 

If Joe Douglas thinks theres a All Pro or Pro Bowler on the board he needs to move up. I am absolutely confident we could get the Wyatt Daviss of the World later in the draft as those guys are completely replaceable. 

We are talking about giving up 3rd round picks here. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

 

Well using that logic, a team should never draft anybody from the team's original draft slot - unless it's a QB - and should always trade down any time someone else is willing to trade up. 

WTF is the difference between 

• the Jets drafting a guard at #14, if that was the original draft slot
• the Jets trading up to draft a guard at #14

Something tells me these half-smart guys didn't look at the identical equation in reverse, and rip to shreds every single pick higher than #14 that wasn't a QB, for turning down the extra picks they could've gotten instead. 

[RutgersJetFan]

7 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:

Yeah I dont get how  a bunch of guys whove never played the game have somehow mastered exactly how to grade each player.

I truly think football is the hardest to judge players because of so many nuances.

I think it’s impossible too 100 percent judge all these players  accurately unless you’re in the film/coaches room with them and know exactly what the  coach wanted out of them on each play.

 

 

 

He isn't grading the player at all. He's grading the salary that he'd get paid out at to justify the draft slot against the position. Not complicated and takes no scouting experience. It's one point of view of looking at things. Yes, there are others. 

[RutgersJetFan]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

WTF is the difference between 

• the Jets drafting a guard at #14, if that was the original draft slot
• the Jets trading up to draft a guard at #14

Option 2 costs more.

[Sperm Edwards]

6 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Option 2 costs more.

lol

It really doesn't, if the team then needs to sign a veteran FA to make up for the difference in talent. Such a calculation presumes everyone turns out the same, regardless of draft slot, if they play the same position.

[RutgersJetFan]

4 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Just my opinion here. 

In this years draft we drafted 10 players. In next years draft we have like 13 picks. Thats before UDFA's and FA. At a certain point we are going to be drafting backups high meaning we are not going to have depth issues. 

To compete with Mahomes eventually we need several All Pro's. Not Fill in's or JAG's. 

If Joe Douglas thinks theres a All Pro or Pro Bowler on the board he needs to move up. I am absolutely confident we could get the Wyatt Daviss of the World later in the draft as those guys are completely replaceable. 

We are talking about giving up 3rd round picks here. 

They are not saying the Jets should not trade up for good players. They are saying positional value matters when grading drafts. Trading up for interior linemen is a risky venture because if he doesn't turn into a great player then it's probably not worth the trade because you can find good interior linemen with picks later than 14th overall. Trading up for skill positions falls lower on the risk/reward scale because on an individual level those positions on average can have larger overall impacts on a win. Trading up for an average CB or WR is different than trading up for an average G. Everyone agrees AVT is a great prospect, it's a matter of how good does a guard have to be to justify trading up for him in the first round; great.

[dbatesman]

8 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The craziest part of all of this is that the analytics say the Jets had a fantastic draft. I don't get what's so horrible about discussing the means to achieve the end. 

From a best-practices standpoint, moving up nine spots in the first for a guard is no bueno. But this draft was crazy thin, third rounders mean less than usual, and the team is clearly going hell for leather to protect and support Wilson. All good. But every year the Jets go against the grain on process, every year there’s some thread skewering the NERDS who dare criticize the scouting and decision-making powerhouse that is the New York Jets, and every year the nerds are proven right. I loved this draft and like I said, I’m fine with the trade, but it’s just amazing that we’re still doing this

[RogerVick1980]

9 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

He isn't grading the player at all. He's grading the salary that he'd get paid out at to justify the draft slot against the position. Not complicated and takes no scouting experience. It's one point of view of looking at things. Yes, there are others. 

I wasnt talking about the cap guy I was referring to how PFF grades players.

[RutgersJetFan]

4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

lol

It really doesn't, if the team then needs to sign a veteran FA to make up for the difference in talent. Their calculation presumes everyone turns out the same, regardless of draft slot, if they play the same position.

And then what if that veteran FA buys a Bigfoot truck and runs over Josh Allen right before the Jets play the Bills? Then those analytics idiots REALLY are gonna look dumb.

[RutgersJetFan]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

From a best-practices standpoint, moving up nine spots in the first for a guard is no bueno. But this draft was crazy thin, third rounders mean less than usual, and the team is clearly going hell for leather to protect and support Wilson. All good. But every year the Jets go against the grain on process, every year there’s some thread skewering the NERDS who dare criticize the scouting and decision-making powerhouse that is the New York Jets, and every year the nerds are proven right. I loved this draft and like I said, I’m fine with the trade, but it’s just amazing that we’re still doing this

Same. I loved the pick and the trade. In a draft full of guys that didn't play Douglas went with sure things. In a standard year who knows but viewing 2021 in a vacuum against usual norms is dumb.

[Irish Jet]

16 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

0-1 is not that subjective. 

It’s 0-100 if you’re talking about their scale.

I’m not saying it isn’t useful or even that it’s not accurate but it is completely manipulated by the eye test of individuals and unlike DVOA or QBR susceptible to both human error and bias. 

They mention how of all statistics their early NFL career grades are the greatest predictor of future success, which is probably easy to accomplish when you literally control the grades. 

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

They are not saying the Jets should not trade up for good players. They are saying positional value matters when grading drafts. Trading up for interior linemen is a risky venture because if he doesn't turn into a great player then it's probably not worth the trade because you can find good interior linemen with picks later than 14th overal

The fact that he played the entire season at LT should have a bearing on his versatility and scheme fit. Could easily slide to RT next year while offering value as a Starter at LG this year.

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

From a best-practices standpoint, moving up nine spots in the first for a guard is no bueno. But this draft was crazy thin, third rounders mean less than usual, and the team is clearly going hell for leather to protect and support Wilson. All good. But every year the Jets go against the grain on process, every year there’s some thread skewering the NERDS who dare criticize the scouting and decision-making powerhouse that is the New York Jets, and every year the nerds are proven right. I loved this draft and like I said, I’m fine with the trade, but it’s just amazing that we’re still doing this

 

[nycdan]

PFF Graded our 2018 draft Elite.  I wouldn't worry.

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 hour ago, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.

The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.

They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.

Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.

I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.

I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.

The analytics only deals with numbers and value.

 

 

The analytics people loved the Jets draft (PFF gave the Jets an A) while at the same time thought the trade up was not a smart analytic decision.  They feel the value of Darrishaw (that fell to 23) plus the 2 3rd round picks was worth more than just Tucker. 

That's a fair critique. It's OK for a GM to sometimes make those types of decisions if they truly love a player, especially when he has spent the last 2 years accumulating a boat load of picks. 
 

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, RutgersJetFan said:

They are not saying the Jets should not trade up for good players. They are saying positional value matters when grading drafts. Trading up for interior linemen is a risky venture because if he doesn't turn into a great player then it's probably not worth the trade because you can find good interior linemen with picks later than 14th overall. Trading up for skill positions falls lower on the risk/reward scale because on an individual level those positions on average can have larger overall impacts on a win. Trading up for an average CB or WR is different than trading up for an average G. Everyone agrees AVT is a great prospect, it's a matter of how good does a guard have to be to justify trading up for him in the first round; great.

But that's just a positional value assessment in general; it has little to do with whether or not the player was taken at a given slot with the original pick or if a team traded up to make that pick in the same slot. Even less so when it's a team that has more than 3 drafts' worth of selections coming in the upcoming 2 drafts (including #2 overall, which would cost a good amount more picks to reach if we didn't start out there). 

It goes without saying that some positions are still ok value if they pan out just ok to pretty-good, like a LT. Such a starting LT is still an expensive FA to sign (e.g. Nate Solder). Same with QB, where Teddy Bridgewater gets $20MM/year as a FA. 

But if it's oh, I don't know, a safety? A just-ok FA safety is less than half that. No doubt that guard is likewise horrible value at #14 if he's just ok, when a Kevin Zeitler is available as a FA for $7.5MM/year. One doesn't burn #14 to avoid paying Zeitler instead of GVR -- #14 gets burned on a guard because the idea/hope is he'll be better (and better for longer) than Zeitler at ages 31-33. 

All that has nothing to do with trading up, though. It's just as terrible value if the team naturally picked at slot #14 and took AVT instead of trading down to #23 and pocketing extra picks. 

[Embrace the Suck]

Analytics is just another tool to help make decisions with. It isn't magic, and it has numerous short comings. One being bad or incomplete data in leading to bad or incomplete data coming out.  However, if you're selling that data then you try to make it sound as all encompassing as you can. Data/information without the context of wisdom doesn't mean much. You need both.

[RutgersJetFan]

4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

But that's just a positional value assessment in general; it has little to do with whether or not the player was taken at a given slot with the original pick or if a team traded up to make that pick in the same slot. Even less so when it's a team that has more than 3 drafts' worth of selections coming in the upcoming 2 drafts (including #2 overall, which would cost a good amount more picks to reach if we didn't start out there). 

It goes without saying that some positions are still ok value if they pan out just ok to pretty-good, like a LT. Such a starting LT is still an expensive FA to sign (e.g. Nate Solder). Same with QB, where Teddy Bridgewater gets $20MM/year as a FA. 

But if it's oh, I don't know, a safety? A just-ok FA safety is less than half that. No doubt that guard is likewise horrible value at #14 if he's just ok, when a Kevin Zeitler is available as a FA for $7.5MM/year. One doesn't burn #14 to avoid paying Zeitler instead of GVR -- #14 gets burned on a guard because the idea/hope is he'll be better (and better for longer) than Zeitler at ages 31-33. 

All that has nothing to do with trading up, though. It's just as terrible value if the team naturally picked at slot #14 and took AVT instead of trading down to #23 and pocketing extra picks. 

It has everything to do with the team moving up. That's the point. Was the trade worth it is a pretty standard and perfectly reasonable question to ask.

[Dunnie]

Becton is our Brick. AVT is our Faneca. Wilson is our Sanchez. Saleh is our Rexy. We just need our 2021 Mangold, Woody and Revis to make a push. 

Salah likes feet ???

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[Dunnie]

If Becton is only D'brick, I'll be pretty disappointed.  

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[RSJ]

When you trade up that high for a guard he better be Zach Martin


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[Larz]

What is the metric for keeping the QB alive and actual team building?

[Mogglez]

I honestly don’t care about “analyst” grades.  I care about giving Zach Wilson a competent offensive line and being able to effectively run the ball.

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

I honestly don’t care about “analyst” grades.  I care about giving Zach Wilson a competent offensive line and being able to effectively run the ball.

[Claymation]

Gil Brandt has AVT as his #6 prospect. Darrisaw at #17

Mel had AVT at #10, Darrisaw isn't even in his top 32.

DJ had AVT at #13 and Darrisaw at 38.

Sorry, Darrisaw is not in the same class as AVT.

[Morrissey]

With how things played out, I would have gone...

 

23: Teven Jenkins OT/G

66: Tommy Tremble TE

66: Quinn Meinerz C

 

Other options at CB: Aaron Robinson, Benjamin St-Juste, Ifeatu Melifonwu