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JETS WR Draft Prospects (the pre-combine edition)


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Well done @Paradis as always  

still Burks, London, Wilson for me too

Justyn Ross - Pickens 

 

Those have been and are my 5 names at WR. Sure there are other guys I’m ok with but these would be my top choices early and late. 
 

every time I start looking at Burks and watching him run away from everyone I get a little bit too excited about potentially pairing him with Moore …..  hope is low though because we never draft the guys I/we want. 
 

do we have any witch information yet

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6 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I hate to say it but William is the best WR in this draft and if he's there at 10 you have to take him, injury and all.

If we were to trade back from 10 I could get with that, but otherwise JD can't take that chance.  Plus there are receivers like Ross, Pickens and Watson that will be around in the second round and offer great value.  Even Jalen Tolbert in perhaps the third.  If Williams were to slide to the late first, I could see JD trying to move up to get him, otherwise, let the draft come to us.  There is a good amount of depth in this draft at WR and we can't afford to draft a player coming off an injury.   I mean if JD were to take him at 10, it will be because he believes Williams will play this season.

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11 hours ago, Stark said:

Well done @Paradis as always  

still Burks, London, Wilson for me too

Justyn Ross - Pickens 

 

Those have been and are my 5 names at WR. Sure there are other guys I’m ok with but these would be my top choices early and late. 
 

every time I start looking at Burks and watching him run away from everyone I get a little bit too excited about potentially pairing him with Moore …..  hope is low though because we never draft the guys I/we want. 
 

do we have any witch information yet

The witch will be in session, but i have to ask the right questions this time. It has to be related to information that exist. I fcked it up asking for future prognosis... Once we get past FA, I will let her out of the basement for a while and have her fetch the crystal...

"Do the Jets have any WR graded high enough at 10, depending on the first 9 taken are...."

That answer will be 100% accurate. 

7E2613F8-D482-4105-A06F-76C3756DD0CD.jpeg.ab3ae84bfad116a221a810b3f25ad516.jpeg

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Really appreciate the effort as always @Paradis and excellent informative thread all round.
I can’t help but be largely underwhelmed by this WR group but every year stars and difference makers emerge, there will be an ace in the pack out there but I just can’t quite see who is worthy of that No 10 pick(never mind No 4) and I am firmly in the “WR is absolutely our greatest need on offence” group.
I really hope we come away with AT LEAST 2 drafted wideouts but I’d have no complaints if JD took the same approach to the position as he took at CB last year with the caveat that we have to make one of those picks in the top 40. 
at this point it seems everyone is sleeping on Chris Olave. I don’t understand why he gets so overlooked!?…what am I missing here?…… I get that he isn’t going to blow up the combine and his height/weight is just average but everything about him just indicates a player who will succeed in the NFL. Everyone wants that 6-3 220 lbs monster that runs a 4.3 with sticky hands and great route-running savvy that has produced since his freshman year in the SEC and finished up with 90 receptions at 20 yards per pop before declaring early….but those guys are unicorns (also known as Julio Jones). 
No idea where the current thinking is with Olave but if he were to slip into the 2nd I personally think that’s insane value and he’d complement Davis and Moore nicely.
Of the others `Pickens is very intruiging and if he checks out health wise Justin Ross has Bryce Hall type upside…..really interested to see more of Dontario Drummond as well. very interesting group and hard to fathom at this point. All of which makes it all the more frustrating that we’ve sat on our hands and let two absolutely loaded WR drafts go by and all we have to show for it is Elijah Moore (Mims has shown nothing up to this point to merit any benefit of the doubt that the light will go on)

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11 hours ago, JetBlue said:

If we were to trade back from 10 I could get with that, but otherwise JD can't take that chance.  Plus there are receivers like Ross, Pickens and Watson that will be around in the second round and offer great value.  Even Jalen Tolbert in perhaps the third.  If Williams were to slide to the late first, I could see JD trying to move up to get him, otherwise, let the draft come to us.  There is a good amount of depth in this draft at WR and we can't afford to draft a player coming off an injury.   I mean if JD were to take him at 10, it will be because he believes Williams will play this season.

When I watch those top receivers only one jumps out to me as special and that's Williams.  There seems to be a whole lot of starter caliber but he's the only one, to me, that has game changer ability.  For me that's worth the risk.

At least that's the way I see it.

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10 hours ago, Paradis said:

The witch will be in session, but i have to ask the right questions this time. It has to be related to information that exist. I fcked it up asking for future prognosis... Once we get past FA, I will let her out of the basement for a while and have her fetch the crystal...

"Do the Jets have any WR graded high enough at 10, depending on the first 9 taken are...."

That answer will be 100% accurate. 

7E2613F8-D482-4105-A06F-76C3756DD0CD.jpeg.ab3ae84bfad116a221a810b3f25ad516.jpeg

haha... let me know if you need help crafting the correct ways to ask the questions

The Craft Witch GIF

 

 

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On 2/28/2022 at 11:48 PM, Hex said:

Honestly I think Garrett Wilson would probably be the best WR for the Jets, simply because he can be relied on. We need players that won't bust, and he has the highest chance of being successful. Players like Drake London might have higher potential, but I just feel like in a draft like this one Wilson would be best to help the QB develop and grow.

 

On 2/28/2022 at 11:56 PM, Paradis said:

You're not wrong. 

Interesting take.

My feeling has always been that the big, physical target who can make plays on the ball (London in this instance) is a better compliment for a young QB who is struggling and that the elite route runner is a better fit for an established offense and accurate QB.

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9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

 

Interesting take.

My feeling has always been that the big, physical target who can make plays on the ball (London in this instance) is a better compliment for a young QB who is struggling and that the elite route runner is a better fit for an established offense and accurate QB.

I think it depends schematically. This offense seems to be more precision based than "go make plays" based and a more raw guy like London who isn't going to be as good separating on the ground may make it harder for a young QB to go through reads. 

The big, physical play on the ball style had always been my preference too but I think the enforcement of illegal contact rules make it way more valuable to be able to separate as a route runner. Guys still need to be able to catch the ball with DB's on them, but I think that's become devalued as a primary skill. Look at the top receiving yardage guys in the NFL and aside from TE's the group is more average sized guys and Mike Williams who really makes his hay as a downfield threat and not a possession guy. Hill's the only burner too. 

My big concern with London, and I just ranted about it in my last post, is he really didn't create explosive plays in college. He was functionally a straight up possession guy. Unless he's got something to unlock physically or usage wise, which is possible because he's still new to full time football, that may be who he is. And I worry a little about a guy who plays in that area of the field on an offense that hasn't really threatened defenses which allows defenses to crowd shorter areas. of the field They don't need a 4.3 guy like Williams necessarily but guys like Wilson, Burks, even Dotson and Olave can get loose downfield and at least threaten defenses in a way that we really haven't seen London produce.

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not sure if any of this big 3 is actually worth the pick at 10, and the bigger question is drafting a rookie wr is the right move for Zach Wilson? The kid needs help right now. Ja'marr chase aside, wide outs can take years to learn the pro route tree. Moore did his thing but Mims never learned it at all. An FA like Allen Robinson would probably help Zach more (imitate a WR 1) this season than rookie WR at 10. 

Similar logic on tight end, but that position is so bad they should double dip. 

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I continue to flip-flop between London and Burks as my #1 choice.  Followed  by Wilson then Williams.  But in all honesty...I'd be happy with any one of these four.  

JD should take one of these guys and not spend precious draft capital on vets other teams are willing to part with.   

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59 minutes ago, derp said:

I think it depends schematically. This offense seems to be more precision based than "go make plays" based and a more raw guy like London who isn't going to be as good separating on the ground may make it harder for a young QB to go through reads. 

The big, physical play on the ball style had always been my preference too but I think the enforcement of illegal contact rules make it way more valuable to be able to separate as a route runner. Guys still need to be able to catch the ball with DB's on them, but I think that's become devalued as a primary skill. Look at the top receiving yardage guys in the NFL and aside from TE's the group is more average sized guys and Mike Williams who really makes his hay as a downfield threat and not a possession guy. Hill's the only burner too. 

Yeah, I think you're right about this. I think my proclivity toward "big" WRs may be outdated but it's hard to shake even if the league seems to be trending the other way.

59 minutes ago, derp said:

My big concern with London, and I just ranted about it in my last post, is he really didn't create explosive plays in college. He was functionally a straight up possession guy. Unless he's got something to unlock physically or usage wise, which is possible because he's still new to full time football, that may be who he is. And I worry a little about a guy who plays in that area of the field on an offense that hasn't really threatened defenses which allows defenses to crowd shorter areas. of the field They don't need a 4.3 guy like Williams necessarily but guys like Wilson, Burks, even Dotson and Olave can get loose downfield and at least threaten defenses in a way that we really haven't seen London produce.

This is fair but I think a big, "catches everything" possession guy who is a monster in the redzone is a good complement to Moore as our 1-2 punch. Like you said though, Wilson may be the better schematic fit.

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32 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Yeah, I think you're right about this. I think my proclivity toward "big" WRs may be outdated but it's hard to shake even if the league seems to be trending the other way.

This is fair but I think a big, "catches everything" possession guy who is a monster in the redzone is a good complement to Moore as our 1-2 punch. Like you said though, Wilson may be the better schematic fit.

I know it’s hard to find but…that’s basically a good tight end, right? For an offense that desperately needs tight end help anyway and has an OC who loves running 12 personnel I kind of think it’s more prudent to shoot some shots there, see if you can find a guy or two at that position who can fill the catch everything possession red zone type role, and find a WR who can continue to improve spacing on an offense that desperately needs it. Especially with a QB who at his best hunts deep shots and creates big plays.

The other issue that I got at in my other post is Davis. London is a nice complement to Moore but London-Moore-Davis really leaves Moore as your explosive guy. Tight end isn’t going to help there. And I do think Moore is explosive enough to create downfield but also  quick enough that he could make things happen underneath if there was someone who could create space. Think it’s so valuable to have wide receivers like Moore who can attack multiple levels of the field - but if he’s the only one then you almost limit him because if he’s the only deep threat you need to use him to create space.

Guess what I’m getting at is I think Moore is versatile enough (huge catch numbers at Ole Miss, speed to create big plays but hands and route running to get open underneath) that he’s best complemented by versatility in the WR room. Makes things less predictable. That’s where with Burks you hope he gets there but it’s just deep shots and underneath touches early, but Wilson in theory really shines as an option because he and Moore could play off each other and keep defenses on their heels a little.

I guess also put differently - this offense can’t beat man coverage very well, Moore is the best, Davis isn’t so good. You *could* throw it to London anyway if he’s not open but as a young QB throwing to a rookie receiver I’m not really sure he helps solve that issue. Contested catches are a strength for Mims too, I’m not sure they use it so much. Want guys to separate. Burks probably is capable traits wise as he’s more explosive and still has the go up and get it size but ball skills aren’t on London’s level (not that Burks is bad but London is very very good) and he’ll be inconsistent separating. Wilson probably thrives there.

Or spacing wise, Crowder was also an underneath to intermediate threat who didn’t stress defenses down the field. London adds a size and red zone element but Crowder is pretty good at getting open underneath and being a possession option for a young QB. And offensive spacing was pretty bad last year. I think a size and possession receiving is nice but that multi level player is more valuable with the current personnel. Someone like London really needs to be who replaces Davis if anything - and maybe that’s the plan and makes things different but I’m not sure it’s a dramatic difference maker this year.

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6 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

When I watch those top receivers only one jumps out to me as special and that's Williams.  There seems to be a whole lot of starter caliber but he's the only one, to me, that has game changer ability.  For me that's worth the risk.

At least that's the way I see it.

I have to disagree.  There are several with real star power.  Burks, Wilson and to a lesser degree, Pickens and Ross (if fully healthy) all have tremendous upside and very high floors.   We can't afford to make a mistake at 4 or 10.  Don't get me wrong, I love Williams but with our history, I just would not take the chance if I was JD.  Especially when you several other players to choose from that have WR 1 ability.    The receiver that really excites me the most strangely enough is Christian Watson who can be had probably with our 38th pick (I no longer think he makes it to the 3rd round).    6'5 210 with sub 4.4 speed, dude looks like a Claypool clone. 

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2 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

I have to disagree.  There are several with real star power.  Burks, Wilson and to a lesser degree, Pickens and Ross (if fully healthy) all have tremendous upside and very high floors.   We can't afford to make a mistake at 4 or 10.  Don't get me wrong, I love Williams but with our history, I just would not take the chance if I was JD.  Especially when you several other players to choose from that have WR 1 ability.    The receiver that really excites me the most strangely enough is Christian Watson who can be had probably with our 38th pick (I no longer think he makes it to the 3rd round).    6'5 210 with sub 4.4 speed, dude looks like a Claypool clone. 

McBride, Watson in the 2nd would be a haul...

Go D at 4 and 10 - But sign and best FA WR you can... 

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On 3/1/2022 at 11:49 AM, Chrebetfan80 said:

Top 5 is solid, i have the same guys, just a little different of an order than you which is kind of what we've talked about all year.  I think alot of it depends on where you put your weight on evaluation.

To me I have it currently at:

Wilson, London, Burks, Dotson, Williams (caveat being I think williams would probably be 1 or 2 for me if not injured).

I always put more stock into consistent identifiable traits.  So Wilsons ability to bend, sink, and get in and out of breaks, his football IQ in terms of blindspot and leverage.. All make him the total package for me at WR when talking about from a pure technical standpoint. Hence the first spot.  

Williams would be first because I see alot of those traits in him as well.  May not be quiteeee the technician wilson is (not many are coming out) but his top end ability of speed is elite, and that is where you could get him to push into that spot had he been healthy.  I cant assume health so he gets marked down to 5th now. 

London I think we both agree on, no need to elaborate too much, only thing you worry about is his ability to separate at the next level.  He's done a really good job being crafty and way more nuanced than you would think with his experience level to get open, but I wouldnt lie about it being at least a little concerning. 

Burks is probably where we've had the biggest disagreement in terms of where to put him.  I think we both really like the prospect from a physical standpoint.. Not much not to like, but it comes back to consistency and fundamental traits for me.  I have not seen enough of the things that I would like to to believe he can be a consistent big time WR at the next level (sink, bend, stem, hip shifting, playing in the blind spot, leverage) .  I wont deny his potential, he's got maybe the biggest upside of anyone in the draft, but that being said in coaching the most dangerous word ever uttered is potential.  So while i recognize his upside and his ability to grow, the best I can put him right now for me is 3rd or 4th.  I wouldnt kill anyone for taking him 1st but for my particular taste i like to not have to project trait development. 

Dotson, Enough said, dude can ball.  redundant for this team in the way that Wilson would be a little redundant as well.  He's an excellent prospect though who does a lot of fundamental things really well. 

 

In regard to that second tier you talked about I think we're all in lock step on Pickens, just would have liked to see more to get a better feel on him.  I feel like i havent seen enough lately to justify him being higher on the list but he works in that second tier where i dont mind taking risks. 

I would have Christian Watson in that section as well (over a Ross).  I may be biased but the senior bowl has a habit of doing that to me, and he was the standout during the 1 v 1s and game reps to me from an all around standpoint.  May never be a guy that jumps out at you from a physical testing standpoing but certainly a guy that is an all around solid WR.  If you could nab him late 2nd in a trade down or early 3rd I think thats a great spot.  On Ross, im just flat out on the kid. I know the potential, its massive, but the dudes injury history and lack of quality film just takes him off my board. 

Love that you highlight drummond. I was a big fan of him last year when watching Moore film. He's flying super low under the radar currently and would be a good pick later on in the draft. not sure how long he'll skate by like he is though. 

 

Can someone answer this for me, because I really don't get it. If London is so elusive and can stop on a dime and break defenders ankles, why isn't he getting separation? The highlights I saw of him he was pretty open most of the time. I think his QB threw to him all the time even when he was covered because he was so good. Do we hold that against him? Is it something else? He was completely dominant before his injury and he's 6'5 and runs pretty much the same 40 time as Wilson. I would think he would pair much better with Moore. The guy played in 8 games, had 88 receptions for almost 1100 yards. Totally dominant - in just part of the season.

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56 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

Can someone answer this for me, because I really don't get it. If London is so elusive and can stop on a dime and break defenders ankles, why isn't he getting separation? The highlights I saw of him he was pretty open most of the time. I think his QB threw to him all the time even when he was covered because he was so good. Do we hold that against him? Is it something else? He was completely dominant before his injury and he's 6'5 and runs pretty much the same 40 time as Wilson. I would think he would pair much better with Wilson. The guy played in 8 games, had 88 receptions for almost 1100 yards. Totally dominant - in just part of the season.

Lack of separation, yards per catch, his biggest plays in college, and him not running the 40 this weekend probably all tell a similar story.

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13 hours ago, Greensleeves said:

Can someone answer this for me, because I really don't get it. If London is so elusive and can stop on a dime and break defenders ankles, why isn't he getting separation? The highlights I saw of him he was pretty open most of the time. I think his QB threw to him all the time even when he was covered because he was so good. Do we hold that against him? Is it something else? He was completely dominant before his injury and he's 6'5 and runs pretty much the same 40 time as Wilson. I would think he would pair much better with Wilson. The guy played in 8 games, had 88 receptions for almost 1100 yards. Totally dominant - in just part of the season.

40 time is not always indicative of playing time obviously.  I am interested to see his actual 40 time and where it is because I'm not sure.   I think he was very good against some defenders at using body positioning and using his understanding of leverage to get open on shorter stuff.  Its the higher end explosiveness and short area quickness out of breaks where you'll see a lack of separation from him.  In the NFL the defenders are so good that having acceleration, especially out of breaks, can make a difference for separation. And while I have seen him set guys up to get deep and set guys up to get open (also extremely valuable), you'd like to see a little more acceleration in spots which im not sure he has. 

if he times in the low 4.5's I think he's probably the 1st or 2nd guy off the board. 

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8 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

40 time is not always indicative of playing time obviously.  I am interested to see his actual 40 time and where it is because I'm not sure.   I think he was very good against some defenders at using body positioning and using his understanding of leverage to get open on shorter stuff.  Its the higher end explosiveness and short area quickness out of breaks where you'll see a lack of separation from him.  In the NFL the defenders are so good that having acceleration, especially out of breaks, can make a difference for separation. And while I have seen him set guys up to get deep and set guys up to get open (also extremely valuable), you'd like to see a little more acceleration in spots which im not sure he has. 

if he times in the low 4.5's I think he's probably the 1st or 2nd guy off the board. 

Agreed.   I think people forget that London is 6’5” and he simply isn’t going to move like a 5’11” receiver.   He gets “separation” or makes himself open differently than smaller receivers.  He doesn’t need a lot of space to make plays.   

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25 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.   I think people forget that London is 6’5” and he simply isn’t going to move like a 5’11” receiver.   He gets “separation” or makes himself open differently than smaller receivers.  He doesn’t need a lot of space to make plays.   

I think people are making a bigger deal of his run time than needs be. Even if he timed at 4.4 (which he probably won't), he doesn't play at that speed so what does that matter to a degree? He's basically a fast TE (height not weight) playing WR, which creates matchup issues for DBs who don't have length or strength to press him. Would provide a big catch radius for Zach who's had some accuracy issues and gives him some easy options for the quick passing offense we run.

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On 3/1/2022 at 7:58 AM, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Awesome post - thanks Paradis! 

 

I am a little bummed you left out my boy Christian Watson. I used to think we'd be able to get him in round three but now I'm fairly confident he won't be around then (especially if he lights up the combine - he is rumored to run sub 4.4). 

The more I look at this draft the more I think we should wait on WR. I'd be willing to change that thought process depending on FA. I think we really need a big bodied X receiver and two guys I like are Watson/Ross. Both will be available at picks 35/38 - and probably more likely than not one of them makes it to the third round. Worse comes to worse you can trade back from the second or trade up from the third and grab one of them in the mid/late second. 

If we address Edge or CB in FA - I'd be more open to selecting one of the top guys at pick 10 - but until then I'm probably looking at the second tier of WRs rather than using #10 on WR. 

Honestly, i haven't watched this game film. Just haven't had time my dude. I barely have time rn to type this. I work as manager in the healthcare sector and it's bananas. I'll be sure to get around to it and have some kind of final rankings list you all can contribute to down the road. 

 

On 3/2/2022 at 8:53 AM, bitonti said:

not sure if any of this big 3 is actually worth the pick at 10, and the bigger question is drafting a rookie wr is the right move for Zach Wilson? The kid needs help right now. Ja'marr chase aside, wide outs can take years to learn the pro route tree. Moore did his thing but Mims never learned it at all. An FA like Allen Robinson would probably help Zach more (imitate a WR 1) this season than rookie WR at 10. 

Similar logic on tight end, but that position is so bad they should double dip. 

here in lies the question. I like all those guys listed above; London, Burks, Wilson etc... but are they that good? are they soo good as to ignore other options in lieu of Pickens and Tolbert later?... ehhhhh *insert Larry David gif*

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2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

This rookie receiver class is the worst one one a long long time. Jets should not be going near any of these guys with a high pick 

The problem is you can say the same thing for many positions this draft sucks overall.

There is depth but as far as top end talent.....woof.  (Compared to many other years)

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