Joe Douglas should trade down the 23' 1st round pick

[TuscanyTile2]

3 hours ago, ASH1962 said:

Sleepy Joe has to wake up first.

[This was my attempt at a "sleeping Joe" type of pic]

[NYJCAP2]

Lions and Seahawks both have 2 first rounders AND 2 second rounders.

 

Hopefully either one sees someone at 13 they are infatuated with.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

The NY Jets should trade down this year's 1st and 6th for 2023 1st (21) and 2nd (53). 

Total points value:

13th- (1,150)+ 6th (22.2) = 1,172.2

21st- (800) + 53rd (370) = 1,170

The Jets will gave 3 second rounders and a 1st in 2023.

Thoughts?

Who has #21 & #53 and why would they want to make that trade?

[Bronx]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Who has #21 & #53 and why would they want to make that trade?

I was corrected earlier, Chargers own 21/54 and I was utilizing the trade value chart on my original post. I am hoping for a trade down with a similar package in order to help the OL.

[Dunnie]

I think the Jets should rack up picks regardless due to Rodgers trade. The Oline needs big time help and a trade down should help the process. 

Do not hate this idea .. especially since we are likely to go center with the first pick.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

The Jets pick 13.  The early reports are quite high on John Michael Schmitz.  Plug-and-play center.  

But 13 seems a little high for a center.  There are going to be teams that want to move up to get their second-level first-round QB choice: Guys like Hendon Hooker, Will Levis.  There is always someone that drops who you might want.  Never know about Jalen Carter for instance.

IF that is the Jets play, I wouldn't go past 20, but you are playing a risky game doing that.  If someone happens to move up and take him, then you have missed out on the first tier OT's, and you don't have your C either.  The other issue:  Plug-and-play.  Even the most blueist of blue-chip prospects sometimes need time.  Do the Jets want to risk that and AR's health?  If you try this and JMS is taken early, will guys like Anton Harrison be around or Darnell Wright as OT prospects? 

IF this were the Jets FO thinking, I would have a concern using a 1st rounder on a center when neither of our OT positions are what you would call 'set in stone.'  If JMS fell to the second round and you could make a trade to go get him early in said round, that is one thing.  But drafting a center in the 1st?  Hmmm.......

 

#13 overall is ludicrous for a center, especially this year (as I’ll explain), plus as likely as not they’ll sign Jones to close that hole before the draft, known-quantity as a veteran is in general (never mind to Keith Carter).

Sign a veteran FA and draft someone later in the draft to groom, and this year to provide additional depth. Use #13 for a position that’d cost in the $20MM/year range for a long-term veteran FA instead; not one that’s plenty-adequately filled by an $8MM/year veteran for the next 1-2 seasons, which is about what Jones would likely get at his age.

Anyway if they are even thinking of a center in round 1, then trading down first is a no-brainer, and I don’t mean trading down a mere 5 slots or so; I mean a good 15 slots to recoup another starter-generating high pick.

What makes coming away with merely a center even worse is that most of the prospects mocked in the top 12 ahead of us are positions we wouldn’t be targeting in the first place this year:

• 4 QBs (obviously Jets not targeting unless the goal is to trigger Rodgers)
• 3 EDGE (they just took two & have two more under-30 veteran starters right now)
• 1-2 CBs (Just took Sauce, and Reed has never looked better, and MC2 is plenty good as a NB; not that #13 is NB-drafting territory anyway)

I mean if it unfolds this way, at #13 we could be looking at - for this current team’s purposes - the 4th best prospect in the draft. 

That’s an opportunity to come away with a much more valuable starter than just a friggin’ center, who’ll probably be worse as a rookie than the cheap probowl FA who’s sitting right there.

[FTL Jet Fan]

The consensus seems to be that the value in this years draft is on day two, so who knows. 

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, Bronx said:

I was corrected earlier, Chargers own 21/54 and I was utilizing the trade value chart on my original post. I am hoping for a trade down with a similar package in order to help the OL.

Ok, but why do THEY want that trade?

I wouldn’t if I were them.

[FootballLove]

Actually, trading out of the 1st round completely for a plethora of 2nd and 3rd round picks is starting to make sense.

Our top talent: Quinnen, Becton, (Zack), Vera-Tucker, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall 

and our 2nd tier talent: Carter, Carter II, Max Mitchell, Clemons

are ALLLLLLL on their rookie deals. Almost our entire team is on their rookie deals. This is the only way Joe Douglas could 'scrape together' $120M over the next 2 seasons for Aaron Rodgers. But over the next 2-3-4 seasons, JoeD will have to start making hard decisions. With so many of our stars coming for their bag at the same time, we'll be in 'cap-hell' just like so many other teams. Some of our best players will no longer be Jets.

So, moving out of the first round and the high cap dollars associated with 1st round picks, and gaining more 2nd/3rd round picks to fill in the ranks, might be a good direction to go.

Just hope JD has an eye for talent in the later rounds. He might need corrective lenses ?

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Actually, trading out of the 1st round completely for a plethora of 2nd and 3rd round picks is starting to make sense.

Our top talent: Quinnen, Becton, (Zack), Vera-Tucker, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall 

and our 2nd tier talent: Carter, Carter II, Max Mitchell, Clemons

are ALLLLLLL on their rookie deals. Almost our entire team is on their rookie deals. This is the only way Joe Douglas could 'scrape together' $120M over the next 2 seasons for Aaron Rodgers. But over the next 2-3-4 seasons, JoeD will have to start making hard decisions. With so many of our stars coming for their bag at the same time, we'll be in 'cap-hell' just like so many other teams. Some of our best players will no longer be Jets.

So, moving out of the first round and the high cap dollars associated with 1st round picks, and gaining more 2nd/3rd round picks to fill in the ranks, might be a good direction to go.

Just hope JD has an eye for talent in the later rounds. He might need corrective lenses ?

The cap ceiling is going to be ~$300MM (quite possibly/probably more than that) by the time the ‘22 picks are getting their extensions. If there are too many that panned out too well to afford them all, they’ll flip one or more for picks at that time.

I’m fine with trading down, depending on what they’d otherwise do at #13 of course, but (even aside from Rodgers not costing $120MM) they’re not going to be in any type of cap hell. 

 

[CanadaSteve]

53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

#13 overall is ludicrous for a center, especially this year (as I’ll explain), plus as likely as not they’ll sign Jones to close that hole before the draft, known-quantity is as a veteran in general (never mind to Keith Carter).

Sign a veteran FA and draft someone later in the draft to groom, and this year to provide additional depth. Use #13 for a position that’d cost in the $20MM/year range for a long-term veteran FA; not one that’s plenty-adequately filled by $8MM/year for the next 1-2 seasons, which is about what Jones would likely get at his age.

Anyway if they are even thinking of a center in round 1, then trading down first is a no-brainer, and I don’t mean trading down a mere 5 slots or so; I mean a good 15 slots to recoup another starter-generating high pick.

What makes coming away with merely a center even worse is that most of the prospects mocked in the top 12 ahead of us are positions we wouldn’t be targeting in the first place this year:

• 4 QBs (obviously Jets not targeting unless the goal is to trigger Rodgers)
• 3 EDGE (they just took two & have two more under-30 veteran starters right now)
• 1-2 CBs (Just took Sauce, and Reed has never looked better, and MC2 is plenty good as a NB, not that #13 is NB-drafting territory anyway)

I mean if it unfolds this way, at #13 we could be looking at - for this current team’s purposes - the 4th best prospect in the draft. 

That’s an opportunity to come away with a much more valuable starter than just a friggin’ center, who’ll probably be worse as a rookie than the cheap probowl FA who’s sitting right there.

That is my thoughts as well.  I hope that came through.

Taking JMS at 13 would be maddening.  Dropping to say, 20-25 range and coming away with a mid-second round pick where we could then also get an OT....Maybe.

But is the drop-off from JMS to, say, Steve Avila, THAT much that staying put and getting, say, Paris Johnson in the 1st and then drafting Avila in the second better than drafting JMS in the 1st and Mathew Bergeron?  I think there is a bigger drop off from the OT's we could get at 13 than say 42 than there is a drop off between JMS and Avila. 

[FootballLove]

42 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The cap ceiling is going to be ~$300MM (quite possibly/probably more than that) by the time the ‘22 picks are getting their extensions. If there are too many that panned out too well to afford them all, they’ll flip one or more for picks at that time.

I’m fine with trading down, depending on what they’d otherwise do at #13 of course, but (even aside from Rodgers not costing $120MM) they’re not going to be in any type of cap hell. 

 

If the Jets were the only team to get the cap boost, then sure, we can keep all our talent.

But player salaries are like a gas....it quickly fills the salary cap, no matter how big the cap is. And it's all relative. The cap is going up for all 32 teams, which means 31 other teams will have mega-bucks to pull our stars away into their camps.

Salary cap could shoot up to $300 BILLION and we wouldn't be able to keep one single player than if the cap was just $300.

[Bungaman]

2 hours ago, ASH1962 said:

Sleepy Joe has to wake up first.

He's not asleep ... Sleeps with one eye open ...

[Barton]

Jets do not have a slot receiver. Mecole is not that guy. Doesn’t run consistent routes. Take JSN from Ohio state…..elite slot receiver. And sign OBJ. 

[Sperm Edwards]

54 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

That is my thoughts as well.  I hope that came through.

Taking JMS at 13 would be maddening.  Dropping to say, 20-25 range and coming away with a mid-second round pick where we could then also get an OT....Maybe.

But is the drop-off from JMS to, say, Steve Avila, THAT much that staying put and getting, say, Paris Johnson in the 1st and then drafting Avila in the second better than drafting JMS in the 1st and Mathew Bergeron?  I think there is a bigger drop off from the OT's we could get at 13 than say 42 than there is a drop off between JMS and Avila. 

Lol nope I read it as you were pushing hard for a projection & skimmed right over your paragraph that began "Seems a little high for a center" as I was trying to get caught up here (the important business of interneting needing to get finished).

So my post can be salvaged other than you can consider my snot-nosed ire directed elsewhere instead, lol.

[PepPep]

Trade up babeee!

[Sperm Edwards]

33 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

If the Jets were the only team to get the cap boost, then sure, we can keep all our talent.

But player salaries are like a gas....it quickly fills the salary cap, no matter how big the cap is. And it's all relative. The cap is going up for all 32 teams, which means 31 other teams will have mega-bucks to pull our stars away into their camps.

Salary cap could shoot up to $300 BILLION and we wouldn't be able to keep one single player than if the cap was just $300.

The Jets are nowhere near in "cap hell" nor are they headed towards it. Not with Rodgers, not with extending QW, not with adding other notable veterans whose contracts will be well off the books before any heavy-hitting cap hits will show for recent draft picks.

You're presenting a false scenario where we won't be able afford to keep our players but other teams can afford to keep their players and sign a bunch of ours (and of course others' non-retained FAs) away.

The 2024 Jets (pre-Rodgers) are some $85MM under a cap ceiling that is already under-projecting next year's growth by ≥$20MM. Even if there is no outright $ reduction for Rodgers, though it's being leaked that there is or might be, that'd still put them at $70MM under with Rodgers counting $33MM (but before y1 of a QW extension, though it also won't nearly hit as heavily that year). Then you can - or should - safely start trimming the likes of CJM ($17M), Uzomah ($8MM), maybe Tomlinson ($13MM), and others who can aggregately add up. Also add in shaving off several million more in unneeded former picks who are unlikely to make the final cut this year, which will indirectly carry over as well (A.Davis, Bryce Huff). 

There is no one they've drafted whom they will lose due to a sheer lack of cap space. The only reason will be if the two sides disagree on the player's worth, which has happened for every team all this time (including pretty much every franchise-tagged player ever), or in the case of someone like Becton whom they might view as too injury-risky to trust for a long term deal.

They are in excellent cap shape & won't lose anyone they want for cap reasons, and aren't screwing their ability to re-sign Sauce, Wilson, etc. because they're signing Rodgers now. The numbers do not add up to tell that story.

[FootballLove]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Jets are nowhere near in "cap hell" nor are they headed towards it. Not with Rodgers, not with extending QW, not with adding other notable veterans whose contracts will be well off the books before any heavy-hitting cap hits will show for recent draft picks.

You're presenting a false scenario where we won't be able afford to keep our players but other teams can afford to keep their players and sign a bunch of ours (and of course others' non-retained FAs) away.

The 2024 Jets (pre-Rodgers) are some $85MM under a cap ceiling that is already under-projecting next year's growth by ≥$20MM. Even if there is no outright $ reduction for Rodgers, though it's being leaked that there is or might be, that'd still put them at $70MM under with Rodgers counting $33MM (but before y1 of a QW extension, though it also won't nearly hit as heavily that year). Then you can - or should - safely start trimming the likes of CJM ($17M), Uzomah ($8MM), maybe Tomlinson ($13MM), and others who can aggregately add up. Also add in shaving off several million more in unneeded former picks who are unlikely to make the final cut this year, which will indirectly carry over as well (A.Davis, Bryce Huff). 

There is no one they've drafted whom they will lose due to a sheer lack of cap space. The only reason will be if the two sides disagree on the player's worth, which has happened for every team all this time (including pretty much every franchise-tagged player ever), or in the case of someone like Becton whom they might view as too injury-risky to trust for a long term deal.

They are in excellent cap shape & won't lose anyone they want for cap reasons, and aren't screwing their ability to re-sign Sauce, Wilson, etc. because they're signing Rodgers now. The numbers do not add up to tell that story.

So Jets are exempt from cap hell. I feel better now! TU!

[FidelioJet]

Take the best players on your board at 13.   Don’t try and be cute. 

[Bronx]

59 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Take the best players on your board at 13.   Don’t try and be cute. 

We need to beef the OL and should trade down to acquire additional picks. It is a crapshoot after the initial 5 picks or maybe the entire draft for that matter (Purdy for the 49ers was an example). 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, FootballLove said:

So Jets are exempt from cap hell. I feel better now! TU!

They're simply not in it and aren't about to be in it. I don't know what else to tell you.

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

It’s great in theory, but if he has only 15 players in this draft with a first round grade (which I’ve read some scouts believe is the number) than he may prefer to stay put and get one of those players, especially if they fill a position of need like, say, an OT.

[Dax89]

The best wisdom I've heard about trading picks is that "Teams don't trade down, other teams trade up".  

[BornJetsFan1983]

10 hours ago, Bronx said:

The NY Jets should trade down this year's 1st and 6th for 2023 1st (21) and 2nd (53) or similar value.

Total points value:

13th- (1,150)+ 6th (22.2) = 1,172.2

21st- (800) + 53rd (370) = 1,170

The Jets will gave 3 second rounders and a 1st in 2023.

Thoughts?

 

 

The draft is always a gamble. Period end of story.

If the Jets have their eyes set on a premium player at a high-demand position, such as quarterback or edge rusher, it may be tempting to stay put and secure that pick. But who knows he might still be available later in the first round, trading back and acquiring additional picks in this draft seems like the wise move.

While the point value of a later first-round pick and a second-round pick may be equivalent to the premium pick at 15, the reality is that the Jets could potentially acquire a starter with their second-round pick. For our team a potential reliable starter can is incredibly valuable, and the Jets should be looking to trade back. The value from the number one guy at position we are looking at is not that and in most cases is out performed by the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th guy on the so called ranking.

This year the goal should be to maximize the value of their draft picks for starters to build a competitive team for the future. We have some glaring need at WR where last year I never woudl have wanted to trade back. This year we should try to move back and get an extra starter. I assume we are looking at line/center/rusher so 15 and 25 just as likely to work. And I much rather have whoever we get at 25 plus another second rounder.

That second round is my favorite place to take a WR anyway and I saw if we have 3 2nds lets spini that wheelp Baby!!

[Jets723]

9 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

The draft is always a gamble. Period end of story.

If the Jets have their eyes set on a premium player at a high-demand position, such as quarterback or edge rusher, it may be tempting to stay put and secure that pick. But who knows he might still be available later in the first round, trading back and acquiring additional picks in this draft seems like the wise move.

While the point value of a later first-round pick and a second-round pick may be equivalent to the premium pick at 15, the reality is that the Jets could potentially acquire a starter with their second-round pick. For our team a potential reliable starter can is incredibly valuable, and the Jets should be looking to trade back. The value from the number one guy at position we are looking at is not that and in most cases is out performed by the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th guy on the so called ranking.

This year the goal should be to maximize the value of their draft picks for starters to build a competitive team for the future. We have some glaring need at WR where last year I never woudl have wanted to trade back. This year we should try to move back and get an extra starter. I assume we are looking at line/center/rusher so 15 and 25 just as likely to work. And I much rather have whoever we get at 25 plus another second rounder.

That second round is my favorite place to take a WR anyway and I saw if we have 3 2nds lets spini that wheelp Baby!!

We don’t have a glaring need at WR.  OL and LB are definitely needs though.  I love getting more picks but there are a lot of factors like if a certain player is sliding like JJ did last year then it’s great strategy 

[hawk]

I am always for a trade down.  This team is getting better and better buy still has holes.  More choices is more possibility of hitting immediately and with development.

[ptisme]

I just did a 5 rd mock for both the Packers and Jets.   Jets retain pick 13 but trade down.   Packers give up Rodgers and a third rounder next year if Rodgers is one and done.   Jets give up 2 second rounders for Rodgers:

Trade:

Jets receive:

QB Aaron Rodgers, Conditional 3rd round pick 2024 if Rodgers retires after this season.

Packers receive two second rounders this year

18: Peter Skoronski (Broderick Jones went 11 or that was my pick for you at 13).

64. Cody Mauch: Projects as a physical Guard

95 S Brandon Joseph-High intelligence general on the field

105 Luke Wypler C -Excellent range and a good pass blocker: Rodgers struggles with pressure up the middle

143 Trey Dean S-Physical player with good man skills

Jets seem to have the fire power but they need to protect Rodgers who is the best QB in the league when he has time to run through his progressions.  OLINE heavy helps to stabilize up front.

 

Packers:

15 JSN WR OSU-A first down machine

42. John Michael Schmitz center (packers young center isn't the answer)

45 Dalton kinkaid-Packers have no TE currently on the roster

68. Blake Freeland: Protection at tackle if Dbak has knee problems he'll slide in at RT and Zach Tom will go to the left side.

78. Antonio Johnson S

88. AT Perry WR More weapons for Love.   They need to give him every opportunity to be successful

116 Kendre Miller RB: Both starters could be gone next year

121 Will Mcdonald Edge

149 Rashad Torrence S

 

 

[BornJetsFan1983]

8 hours ago, ptisme said:

I just did a 5 rd mock for both the Packers and Jets.   Jets retain pick 13 but trade down.   Packers give up Rodgers and a third rounder next year if Rodgers is one and done.   Jets give up 2 second rounders for Rodgers:

Trade:

Jets receive:

QB Aaron Rodgers, Conditional 3rd round pick 2024 if Rodgers retires after this season.

Packers receive two second rounders this year

18: Peter Skoronski (Broderick Jones went 11 or that was my pick for you at 13).

64. Cody Mauch: Projects as a physical Guard

95 S Brandon Joseph-High intelligence general on the field

105 Luke Wypler C -Excellent range and a good pass blocker: Rodgers struggles with pressure up the middle

143 Trey Dean S-Physical player with good man skills

Jets seem to have the fire power but they need to protect Rodgers who is the best QB in the league when he has time to run through his progressions.  OLINE heavy helps to stabilize up front.

 

Packers:

15 JSN WR OSU-A first down machine

42. John Michael Schmitz center (packers young center isn't the answer)

45 Dalton kinkaid-Packers have no TE currently on the roster

68. Blake Freeland: Protection at tackle if Dbak has knee problems he'll slide in at RT and Zach Tom will go to the left side.

78. Antonio Johnson S

88. AT Perry WR More weapons for Love.   They need to give him every opportunity to be successful

116 Kendre Miller RB: Both starters could be gone next year

121 Will Mcdonald Edge

149 Rashad Torrence S

 

 

Are you a jets fan? That is a horrible deal. Why we would even give one 2nd rounder?

 

[BornJetsFan1983]

On 3/24/2023 at 8:59 AM, NYJCAP2 said:

Lions and Seahawks both have 2 first rounders AND 2 second rounders.

 

Hopefully either one sees someone at 13 they are infatuated with.

How Seattle get two?

[Bronx]

8 hours ago, ptisme said:

I just did a 5 rd mock for both the Packers and Jets.   Jets retain pick 13 but trade down.   Packers give up Rodgers and a third rounder next year if Rodgers is one and done.   Jets give up 2 second rounders for Rodgers:

Trade:

Jets receive:

QB Aaron Rodgers, Conditional 3rd round pick 2024 if Rodgers retires after this season.

Packers receive two second rounders this year

18: Peter Skoronski (Broderick Jones went 11 or that was my pick for you at 13).

64. Cody Mauch: Projects as a physical Guard

95 S Brandon Joseph-High intelligence general on the field

105 Luke Wypler C -Excellent range and a good pass blocker: Rodgers struggles with pressure up the middle

143 Trey Dean S-Physical player with good man skills

Jets seem to have the fire power but they need to protect Rodgers who is the best QB in the league when he has time to run through his progressions.  OLINE heavy helps to stabilize up front.

 

Packers:

15 JSN WR OSU-A first down machine

42. John Michael Schmitz center (packers young center isn't the answer)

45 Dalton kinkaid-Packers have no TE currently on the roster

68. Blake Freeland: Protection at tackle if Dbak has knee problems he'll slide in at RT and Zach Tom will go to the left side.

78. Antonio Johnson S

88. AT Perry WR More weapons for Love.   They need to give him every opportunity to be successful

116 Kendre Miller RB: Both starters could be gone next year

121 Will Mcdonald Edge

149 Rashad Torrence S

 

 

We are trading a second rounder at a minimum. Trade down and acquire an additional 2nd or 3rd round pick.

[BurntDice]

2 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

How Seattle get two?

Russ 

[CanadaSteve]

On 3/24/2023 at 7:19 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

They're simply not in it and aren't about to be in it. I don't know what else to tell you.

Yeah....They are not.

Even with all the restructuring this year, we still have about 30 people under contract with about $87 million in cap space before an increase, and easily $30 million more that can be cut.

In 2025 (and granted only have half a team under contract), we have almost $200 million in cap space.  I think we are good.  

JD has warts, but I feel like the cap has been managed better than we have seen in the past decade with this franchise.  JUST gotta get a few more of those draft picks working out.  He's pretty close to that 50 percent mark after three drafts.  

[Jetsfan80]

Gotta be willing to accept 75 cents on the dollar for a trade down with this class.

I’m very much in favor of moving down to help recoup what we’ll lose with the Rodgers deal, but be prepared to end up getting an early 3rd in the deal at best.  

[BornJetsFan1983]

On 3/25/2023 at 9:55 PM, BurntDice said:

Russ 

oh haha...they did to den what we did to them, dude for 1st rounders.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

On 3/24/2023 at 10:45 AM, Barton said:

Jets do not have a slot receiver. Mecole is not that guy. Doesn’t run consistent routes. Take JSN from Ohio state…..elite slot receiver. And sign OBJ. 

This is who I want.

I see a faster Keenan Allen.