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Bored: My Current Guess at the Percentage Chance of Each Player Making the Active Roster


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10 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

Awesome job

45 definites before you get to orange... Damn JD has done a amazing job making this team deep... 

There are going to be some tough cuts

Shweitzer, Mitchell, Knight, guidry, davis, Kuntz, taylor, Bawden for the final 8

is Justin Hardee really worth having on the team?  is there someone else who can almost do what he does that can also play a position?  if we don't keep him that opens up another spot for TE4 or FB without trying to smeak them on the practice aquad

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5 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

Has anyone heard anything about Bernard-Converse in camp?  Wasn’t he converting from CB to S? Don’t think I’ve seen his name once since the draft.

I think he will go on IR at some point and take a redshirt year.  That would be best for both sides 

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5 minutes ago, jbt said:

Shweitzer, Mitchell, Knight, guidry, davis, Kuntz, taylor, Bawden for the final 8

is Justin Hardee really worth having on the team?  is there someone else who can almost do what he does that can also play a position?  if we don't keep him that opens up another spot for TE4 or FB without trying to smeak them on the practice aquad

Hardee is not going anywhere... Best gunner in the league.. 

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5 minutes ago, Larz said:

What’s up with the safety/corner guy JBC besides he’s hurt and on the pup?

anyone know about a timeline?  Gotta think he’s looking at IR now, no ?

Nobody has made any kind of formal statement about the exact nature of the injury.  He was hurt some at LSU last year - not sure if it is lingering recovery from that injury or something unrelated

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4 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Nobody has made any kind of formal statement about the exact nature of the injury.  He was hurt some at LSU last year - not sure if it is lingering recovery from that injury or something unrelated

Googled his LSU injury and it was a concussion, so it's unrelated to that obviously

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Not sure why Brownlee would be so far behind Taylor and Gipson - or even below Charles for that matter.  Did one game really drop him THAT far below his competition?  Especially considering he was arguably the front-runner before it...even after Taylor's big catch against Cleveland at the HOF game.  

 

I think right now it's Brownlee and Taylor pretty much neck and neck for that #6 spot.  Lot of time left though before a decision needs to be made.

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3 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

How likely is it that each player on the current roster makes the Active Roster to start the season (barring injury)?  

Here's my guess.....

Aaron Rogers QB 100%
Breece Hall RB 100%
Garrett Wilson WR 100%
Allen Lazard WR 100%
Duane Brown OT 100%
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T 100%
Quinnen Williams DT 100%
Will McDonald IV Edge 100%
Jermaine Johnson DE / LB 100%
C.J. Mosley LB 100%
Sauce Gardner CB 100%
D.J. Reed CB 100%
Greg Zuerlein PK 100%
Thomas Morstead P 100%
Thomas Hennessy LS 100%
John Franklin-Myers DE/DT 99%
Joe Tippmann C 99%
Carl Lawson DE 99%
Al Woods DT 99%
Bryce Huff Edge 99%
Zach Wilson QB 98%
Michael Carter RB 98%
Corey Davis WR 98%
Jeremy Ruckert TE 98%
Laken Tomlinson G 98%
Michael Carter II CB 98%
Michael Clemons DE/DT 96%
C.J. Uzomah TE 95%
Tyler Conklin TE 95%
Israel Abanikanda RB 95%
Mecole Hardman Jr. WR 95%
Jordan Whitehead S 95%
Adrian Amos S 95%
Mekhi Becton OT 94%
Quincy Williams LB 92%
Carter Warren OT 92%
Billy Turner OT 90%
Zaire Barnes LB 90%
Jamien Sherwood LB 90%
Tony Adams S 90%
Connor McGovern C 88%
Quinton Jefferson DL 87%
Solomon Thomas DL 87%
Randall Cobb WR 85%
Brandin Echols CB 85%
Wes Schweitzer G/C 84%
Justin Hardee CB 83%
Max Mitchell OL 82%
Chazz Surratt LB 80%
Zonovan Knight RB 75%
Javelin Guidry CB 70%
Bryce Hall CB 65%
Ashtyn Davis S 65%
Zack Kuntz TE 60%
Trey Dean S 55%
Malik Taylor WR 51%
Xavier Gipson WR 50%
Tim Boyle QB 50%
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S 45%
Claudin Cherelus LB 45%
Dane Cruikshank S 45%
Marquis Waters S 44%
Irvin Charles WR 42%
Craig James CB 40%
Nick Bawden FB 40%
Kenny Yeboah TE 40%
Marquiss Spencer DE 39%
Jimmy Moreland CB 36%
Ife Odenigbo Edge 35%
Pita Taumoepenu Edge 32%
Jason Brownlee WR 30%
Alex Erickson WR 30%
Nick Vigil LB 28%
Bruce Hector DL 26%
Tanzel Smart DT 25%
Greg Senat OT 23%
Trystan Colon G/C 22%
Derrick Langford CB 22%
Chris Glaser OL 22%
Adam Pankey OL 21%
Deslin Alexandre DL 17%
Sam Eguavoen LB 13%
Caleb Johnson LB 10%
E.J. Jenkins TE 10%
T.J. Luther WR 8%
Grant Hermanns OT 7%
Travis Dye RB 5%
Jerome Kapp WR 5%
Brent Laing OL 5%
Damarea Crockett RB 2%

I love your threads, always fun. Though sometimes I be like who? Wut? 

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4 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Here's my guess.....

     
C.J. Mosley LB 100%
     
Zach Wilson QB 98%
     
Mekhi Becton OT 94%
     
Ashtyn Davis S 65%
     

 

@jgb @Sperm Edwards @pointman

 

Sad Ben Affleck GIF

 

4 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

How likely is it that each player on the current roster makes the Active Roster to start the season (barring injury)?  

Here's my guess.....

     
Michael Clemons DE/DT 96%
     

 

@Barry McCockinner ONLY 96 % for Clemons?  Think he has anything to say about that?

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5 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

How likely is it that each player on the current roster makes the Active Roster to start the season (barring injury)?  

Here's my guess.....

Aaron Rogers QB 100%
Breece Hall RB 100%
Garrett Wilson WR 100%
Allen Lazard WR 100%
Duane Brown OT 100%
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T 100%
Quinnen Williams DT 100%
Will McDonald IV Edge 100%
Jermaine Johnson DE / LB 100%
C.J. Mosley LB 100%
Sauce Gardner CB 100%
D.J. Reed CB 100%
Greg Zuerlein PK 100%
Thomas Morstead P 100%
Thomas Hennessy LS 100%
John Franklin-Myers DE/DT 99%
Joe Tippmann C 99%
Carl Lawson DE 99%
Al Woods DT 99%
Bryce Huff Edge 99%
Zach Wilson QB 98%
Michael Carter RB 98%
Corey Davis WR 98%
Jeremy Ruckert TE 98%
Laken Tomlinson G 98%
Michael Carter II CB 98%
Michael Clemons DE/DT 96%
C.J. Uzomah TE 95%
Tyler Conklin TE 95%
Israel Abanikanda RB 95%
Mecole Hardman Jr. WR 95%
Jordan Whitehead S 95%
Adrian Amos S 95%
Mekhi Becton OT 94%
Quincy Williams LB 92%
Carter Warren OT 92%
Billy Turner OT 90%
Zaire Barnes LB 90%
Jamien Sherwood LB 90%
Tony Adams S 90%
Connor McGovern C 88%
Quinton Jefferson DL 87%
Solomon Thomas DL 87%
Randall Cobb WR 85%
Brandin Echols CB 85%
Wes Schweitzer G/C 84%
Justin Hardee CB 83%
Max Mitchell OL 82%
Chazz Surratt LB 80%
Zonovan Knight RB 75%
Javelin Guidry CB 70%
Bryce Hall CB 65%
Ashtyn Davis S 65%
Zack Kuntz TE 60%
Trey Dean S 55%
Malik Taylor WR 51%
Xavier Gipson WR 50%
Tim Boyle QB 50%
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S 45%
Claudin Cherelus LB 45%
Dane Cruikshank S 45%
Marquis Waters S 44%
Irvin Charles WR 42%
Craig James CB 40%
Nick Bawden FB 40%
Kenny Yeboah TE 40%
Marquiss Spencer DE 39%
Jimmy Moreland CB 36%
Ife Odenigbo Edge 35%
Pita Taumoepenu Edge 32%
Jason Brownlee WR 30%
Alex Erickson WR 30%
Nick Vigil LB 28%
Bruce Hector DL 26%
Tanzel Smart DT 25%
Greg Senat OT 23%
Trystan Colon G/C 22%
Derrick Langford CB 22%
Chris Glaser OL 22%
Adam Pankey OL 21%
Deslin Alexandre DL 17%
Sam Eguavoen LB 13%
Caleb Johnson LB 10%
E.J. Jenkins TE 10%
T.J. Luther WR 8%
Grant Hermanns OT 7%
Travis Dye RB 5%
Jerome Kapp WR 5%
Brent Laing OL 5%
Damarea Crockett RB 2%

really good way of thinking about the roster.  didn't think about it much like this.

a few thoughts on the guys - although at first i will point out your % total adds up to 60 players so you need to get rid of 700% from your list

I would put Brown a bit lower.  He hasn't practiced.  does he decide to retire.  just a thought.

MC  RB - i would put lower if there is any truth to the cook rumor

i think Lawson could get traded so i would put him lower.

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5 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

How likely is it that each player on the current roster makes the Active Roster to start the season (barring injury)?  

Here's my guess.....

Aaron Rogers QB 100%
Breece Hall RB 100%
Garrett Wilson WR 100%
Allen Lazard WR 100%
Duane Brown OT 100%
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T 100%
Quinnen Williams DT 100%
Will McDonald IV Edge 100%
Jermaine Johnson DE / LB 100%
C.J. Mosley LB 100%
Sauce Gardner CB 100%
D.J. Reed CB 100%
Greg Zuerlein PK 100%
Thomas Morstead P 100%
Thomas Hennessy LS 100%
John Franklin-Myers DE/DT 99%
Joe Tippmann C 99%
Carl Lawson DE 99%
Al Woods DT 99%
Bryce Huff Edge 99%
Zach Wilson QB 98%
Michael Carter RB 98%
Corey Davis WR 98%
Jeremy Ruckert TE 98%
Laken Tomlinson G 98%
Michael Carter II CB 98%
Michael Clemons DE/DT 96%
C.J. Uzomah TE 95%
Tyler Conklin TE 95%
Israel Abanikanda RB 95%
Mecole Hardman Jr. WR 95%
Jordan Whitehead S 95%
Adrian Amos S 95%
Mekhi Becton OT 94%
Quincy Williams LB 92%
Carter Warren OT 92%
Billy Turner OT 90%
Zaire Barnes LB 90%
Jamien Sherwood LB 90%
Tony Adams S 90%
Connor McGovern C 88%
Quinton Jefferson DL 87%
Solomon Thomas DL 87%
Randall Cobb WR 85%
Brandin Echols CB 85%
Wes Schweitzer G/C 84%
Justin Hardee CB 83%
Max Mitchell OL 82%
Chazz Surratt LB 80%
Zonovan Knight RB 75%
Javelin Guidry CB 70%
Bryce Hall CB 65%
Ashtyn Davis S 65%
Zack Kuntz TE 60%
Trey Dean S 55%
Malik Taylor WR 51%
Xavier Gipson WR 50%
Tim Boyle QB 50%
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S 45%
Claudin Cherelus LB 45%
Dane Cruikshank S 45%
Marquis Waters S 44%
Irvin Charles WR 42%
Craig James CB 40%
Nick Bawden FB 40%
Kenny Yeboah TE 40%
Marquiss Spencer DE 39%
Jimmy Moreland CB 36%
Ife Odenigbo Edge 35%
Pita Taumoepenu Edge 32%
Jason Brownlee WR 30%
Alex Erickson WR 30%
Nick Vigil LB 28%
Bruce Hector DL 26%
Tanzel Smart DT 25%
Greg Senat OT 23%
Trystan Colon G/C 22%
Derrick Langford CB 22%
Chris Glaser OL 22%
Adam Pankey OL 21%
Deslin Alexandre DL 17%
Sam Eguavoen LB 13%
Caleb Johnson LB 10%
E.J. Jenkins TE 10%
T.J. Luther WR 8%
Grant Hermanns OT 7%
Travis Dye RB 5%
Jerome Kapp WR 5%
Brent Laing OL 5%
Dalvin Cook RB -2%

I just made one minor adjustment for accuracy.

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7 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

How likely is it that each player on the current roster makes the Active Roster to start the season (barring injury)?  

Here's my guess.....

Aaron Rogers QB 100%
Breece Hall RB 100%
Garrett Wilson WR 100%
Allen Lazard WR 100%
Duane Brown OT 100%
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T 100%
Quinnen Williams DT 100%
Will McDonald IV Edge 100%
Jermaine Johnson DE / LB 100%
C.J. Mosley LB 100%
Sauce Gardner CB 100%
D.J. Reed CB 100%
Greg Zuerlein PK 100%
Thomas Morstead P 100%
Thomas Hennessy LS 100%
John Franklin-Myers DE/DT 99%
Joe Tippmann C 99%
Carl Lawson DE 99%
Al Woods DT 99%
Bryce Huff Edge 99%
Zach Wilson QB 98%
Michael Carter RB 98%
Corey Davis WR 98%
Jeremy Ruckert TE 98%
Laken Tomlinson G 98%
Michael Carter II CB 98%
Michael Clemons DE/DT 96%
C.J. Uzomah TE 95%
Tyler Conklin TE 95%
Israel Abanikanda RB 95%
Mecole Hardman Jr. WR 95%
Jordan Whitehead S 95%
Adrian Amos S 95%
Mekhi Becton OT 94%
Quincy Williams LB 92%
Carter Warren OT 92%
Billy Turner OT 90%
Zaire Barnes LB 90%
Jamien Sherwood LB 90%
Tony Adams S 90%
Connor McGovern C 88%
Quinton Jefferson DL 87%
Solomon Thomas DL 87%
Randall Cobb WR 85%
Brandin Echols CB 85%
Wes Schweitzer G/C 84%
Justin Hardee CB 83%
Max Mitchell OL 82%
Chazz Surratt LB 80%
Zonovan Knight RB 75%
Javelin Guidry CB 70%
Bryce Hall CB 65%
Ashtyn Davis S 65%
Zack Kuntz TE 60%
Trey Dean S 55%
Malik Taylor WR 51%
Xavier Gipson WR 50%
Tim Boyle QB 50%
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S 45%
Claudin Cherelus LB 45%
Dane Cruikshank S 45%
Marquis Waters S 44%
Irvin Charles WR 42%
Craig James CB 40%
Nick Bawden FB 40%
Kenny Yeboah TE 40%
Marquiss Spencer DE 39%
Jimmy Moreland CB 36%
Ife Odenigbo Edge 35%
Pita Taumoepenu Edge 32%
Jason Brownlee WR 30%
Alex Erickson WR 30%
Nick Vigil LB 28%
Bruce Hector DL 26%
Tanzel Smart DT 25%
Greg Senat OT 23%
Trystan Colon G/C 22%
Derrick Langford CB 22%
Chris Glaser OL 22%
Adam Pankey OL 21%
Deslin Alexandre DL 17%
Sam Eguavoen LB 13%
Caleb Johnson LB 10%
E.J. Jenkins TE 10%
T.J. Luther WR 8%
Grant Hermanns OT 7%
Travis Dye RB 5%
Jerome Kapp WR 5%
Brent Laing OL 5%
Damarea Crockett RB 2%

I appreciate your posts Sarge, but I have a suggestion for the future.  Instead of trying to come up with percentages, which are questionable when you go under 83%, I would rate each player as:  1. Shoo-in to make the team  2. Leaning towards making the team  3. On the bubble to make the team 4.  Leaning against making the team  5.  Will not make the team.

Once you start with 83%, 67%, 40% and so on, it's hard to follow exactly how you came up with thees exact percentages.  LOL

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4 minutes ago, Alka said:

I appreciate your posts Sarge, but I have a suggestion for the future.  Instead of trying to come up with percentages, which are questionable when you go under 83%, I would rate each player as:  1. Shoo-in to make the team  2. Leaning towards making the team  3. On the bubble to make the team 4.  Leaning against making the team  5.  Will not make the team.

Once you start with 83%, 67%, 40% and so on, it's hard to follow exactly how you came up with thees exact percentages.  LOL


Confused Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter

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