Idzik Difficult Decision On Folk

[JetNation]

Dubbed the “Folk-hero” during the 2013 season for making clutch field goals place kicker Nick Folk is set to become an unrestricted free agent on March 11.

 

Folk has played under veteran minimum contracts for the past two years and went 33 of 36 on field goal attempts (91.7%) with a number of game winners last year.  Now entering his eighth season Folk will be looking for a bigger payday this offseason.

 

The recent signings of kickers Robbie Gould (Chicago Bears) and Dan Bailey (Dallas Cowboys) to lucrative long term deals might provide some parameters for the type of deal Folk could be looking for.  Over the past two seasons Folk has made 86% of his field goal attempts (54 of 63), although he had three blocked in 2012. 

 

Gould received a four year contract worth $15 million with $8.85 million of that guaranteed while making 87% of field goal tries, 2012-13 (47 of 54). Cowboys kicker Bailey received a seven year contract worth $22.5 million with $7.5 million of that guaranteed and he had 93% field goal success making 57 of 61 attempts over the past two seasons.  Folk has been solid on kickoffs which result in a touchback with 30 last year, although Gould (38) and Bailey (52) had more. 

 

A team’s kicker certainly plays a vital role not only for scoring points but for field position as well however it can be difficult to put too many resources into this position. Teams often struggle with exactly how much of their resources should go into kickers which potentially limits the signing of other positions. 

 

The Jets and general manager John Idzik are going to be put to the test with some of the contracts given out to comparable kickers as Folk.  What offers he receives on the open market could persuade the organization to let Folk walk if the offers go outside their budget.  The team could always franchise Folk attempting to work out a long term deal but the tag for a kicker is one year at $3 million and might not be a viable option. 

 

The handling of the Folk free agency will be interesting to watch as it unfolds since this will be the first time John Idzik has the resources to retain players with better offers or strictly stand by what he has allocated within the budget.  It will give us all a better perspective on how Idzik will handle free agents moving forward.

[Lizard King]

He's the only guy on the team that scores, was one of the top kickers in the NFL, and for a team that has an offensive philosophy built around kicking field goals it would be a mistake not to resign him. I am told he wants to be a Jet

[slats]

$3-4M a year is probably a little rich for a kicker, and if he signs for that somewhere else, he'll be a credit towards another comp pick - which Idzik seems to like. If Folk wants to cash in after a very good season (and I don't blame him), I suspect he might have to look elsewhere.

[BurnleyJet]

Jets aren't paying Folk 4mill per. Guys a reliable kicker but lacks leg. The short fall is a risk I'd take by signing a younger cheaper alternative. I expect to see the Jets not to pay that kind of $.

[CTM]

He should close his eyes and throw a dart at a paper labelled yes on one side and no on the other. Don't want him wasting brain cycles on this when he has to find us a QB

[#27TheDominator]

I'd be happy to keep him, but we should not be spending on a kicker.  

[Stonehands]

We all talk about how Folk is one of the best in the league when in actuality, there were 10 guys with the same or better numbers than Folk last year (which was the best year of his career).  Plus, there were another 10 guys who were just behind him but still over 85% success rate.  I would be hard pressed to justify giving him a huge contract.  He should get raise, but I don't think we should follow what Chicago and Dallas have done.

[Jetlife33]

So many crucial decisions to make, this isn't one of them.

[jgb]

the article only states number of touchbacks--for a team like jets that don't score much opportunities to kickoff are limited. i'd be curious to know the percentage of kickoffs that are touchbacks. much better metric.

[Sperm Edwards]

$3-4M a year is probably a little rich for a kicker, and if he signs for that somewhere else, he'll be a credit towards another comp pick - which Idzik seems to like. If Folk wants to cash in after a very good season (and I don't blame him), I suspect he might have to look elsewhere.

 

Except we wouldn't get that pick unless we stayed on the sideline and didn't sign a lot of UFAs this offseason.

 

Would be pretty funny, though, if he got a top 3 contract for his position from someone else, and under the CBA if that translates to a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

I think I'd ante up a bit for him.  I have no stomach for kickers where it's an adventure every time they make an attempt.  He's as reliable a kicker as we've had pretty much ever.  In particular, it's not like we have some great offense in place where our kicker is kicking mostly XPs, and those FGs could easily be the difference between the playoffs and staying home in January.

 

But yeah, that's a lot of coin for a kicker.  Still, is he worth the extra million or two per year, or is it worth an extra million upgrade at one or two positions better-spent.  Probably Folk.  Also there's that other thing: kickers sometimes just start sucking from out of nowhere.  Look at David Akers.  Hell, look at Nick Folk when he was with Dallas.  Was a 91% kicker and then the next year he was a 65% kicker.  Think it couldn't happen again? It can.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Kickers have been getting progressively better over the last handful of years that I'm almost surprised when they miss.  Surprised, yet still with a giant knot in my stomach.  As mentioned, I'd love to have him back, but anything over $3.5 is probably pushing it for a kicker, especially when his touch back percentage seems to be pretty low (no numbers to back it up, just gut feeling).

[jgb]

Except we wouldn't get that pick unless we stayed on the sideline and didn't sign a lot of UFAs this offseason.

 

Would be pretty funny, though, if he got a top 3 contract for his position from someone else, and under the CBA if that translates to a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

I think I'd ante up a bit for him.  I have no stomach for kickers where it's an adventure every time they make an attempt.  He's as reliable a kicker as we've had pretty much ever.  In particular, it's not like we have some great offense in place where our kicker is kicking mostly XPs, and those FGs could easily be the difference between the playoffs and staying home in January.

 

But yeah, that's a lot of coin for a kicker.  Still, is he worth the extra million or two per year, or is it worth an extra million upgrade at one or two positions better-spent.  Probably Folk.  Also there's that other thing: kickers sometimes just start sucking from out of nowhere.  Look at David Akers.  Hell, look at Nick Folk when he was with Dallas.  Was a 91% kicker and then the next year he was a 65% kicker.  Think it couldn't happen again? It can.

 

i agree on not being able to handle to nausea of an inconsistent kicker. a 5% reduction in FG % on a team like this could move 1 or 2 Ws into the L column.

[Gastineau Lives]

Guy consistently makes big kicks. We will be in tight games. Gotta find a way to keep him.

[Sperm Edwards]

Kickers have been getting progressively better over the last handful of years that I'm almost surprised when they miss.  Surprised, yet still with a giant knot in my stomach.  As mentioned, I'd love to have him back, but anything over $3.5 is probably pushing it for a kicker, especially when his touch back percentage seems to be pretty low (no numbers to back it up, just gut feeling).

 

I'm less concerned about the TB numbers.  For all we know they're going to do away with kickoffs and extra points sooner or later.  

 

It's the <45 yarders I'm more concerned about.  Above that I don't realistically expect much more than 50%.  OK I do while they're kicking, but on balance on the season I don't.  Missing shorter ones is intolerable.

 

Problem is Folk hasn't been automatic for most of his career.  He was for 1 season, then he was sub-80% for 4 years.  Then he was near-automatic again last season.  If we pay him, that's fine.  But don't pay him based on the expectation of 90% FG kicking because it's not likely to happen.

[Sperm Edwards]

i agree on not being able to handle to nausea of an inconsistent kicker. a 5% reduction in FG % on a team like this could move 1 or 2 Ws into the L column.

 

Our whole section would turn our backs for John Hall's kick.  I have no desire to relive that.

[JohnnyLV]

I don't think kickers are worth that. They are MUCH better than they were even 5 years ago.  We can find someone as good for veteran minimum in my view.

[Klecko73isGod]

**** him. Kickers are a necessary evil. It's complete BS that they count towards the cap or take up a valuable roster spot. 

[joewillie78]

**** him. Kickers are a necessary evil. It's complete BS that they count towards the cap or take up a valuable roster spot. 

Parcells agree's. A kicker never would dare ask that dude for a raise. You were lucky if he let you ride on the team bus.

[Stonehands]

Out of 7 years in the league, he has had 3 good ones, 3 mediocres ones and 1 awful one.  I would buy the need to lock up a good kicker if he was a little more consistent or if we hadn't just had Nick Novak and Dan Carpenter in camp basically for free who both had comparable seasons to Folk.

[BroadwayJoe12]

I'm less concerned about the TB numbers.  For all we know they're going to do away with kickoffs and extra points sooner or later.  

 

It's the <45 yarders I'm more concerned about.  Above that I don't realistically expect much more than 50%.  OK I do while they're kicking, but on balance on the season I don't.  Missing shorter ones is intolerable.

 

Problem is Folk hasn't been automatic for most of his career.  He was for 1 season, then he was sub-80% for 4 years.  Then he was near-automatic again last season.  If we pay him, that's fine.  But don't pay him based on the expectation of 90% FG kicking because it's not likely to happen.

 

 

Our whole section would turn our backs for John Hall's kick.  I have no desire to relive that.

 

Although I agree that, based on his history, giving him a long-term contract is risky, listening to Cotwika and Westy, it appears he truly put in a lot of work to become just a better kicker this past year. While I think his relative play is sustainable, the reason I wouldn't pay him top 3 money is that the top 10 or so guys are pretty much all doing the same thing. It just appears kickers are considerably better now and I'm not willing to take money away from other positions to pay a kicker.

 

It's like the Decker question: I'd like em both, but it depends on how much. As of now, all we have is speculation on what they'll ask for. Folk could end up opting for more years and less money, if he wants a more long-term financial guarantee.  I think about #3 million per isn't too bad.

[Lizard King]

Parcells agree's. A kicker never would dare ask that dude for a raise. You were lucky if he let you ride on the team bus.

 

Your sigs are attrocious lately.

[joewillie78]

Your sigs are attrocious lately.

I agree, but you need to complain to the person (whoever that may be) that is putting them up. I have nothing to do with them, except to be embarrassed as the next disaster of a sig shows up unexpectedly.

 

This one is bad, but the Sanchez pool party was creepy.

[Sperm Edwards]

Although I agree that, based on his history, giving him a long-term contract is risky, listening to Cotwika and Westy, it appears he truly put in a lot of work to become just a better kicker this past year. While I think his relative play is sustainable, the reason I wouldn't pay him top 3 money is that the top 10 or so guys are pretty much all doing the same thing. It just appears kickers are considerably better now and I'm not willing to take money away from other positions to pay a kicker.

 

It's like the Decker question: I'd like em both, but it depends on how much. As of now, all we have is speculation on what they'll ask for. Folk could end up opting for more years and less money, if he wants a more long-term financial guarantee.  I think about #3 million per isn't too bad.

 

My issue with a number like $3M (or more) is that it seems at least 30% higher than top-5 kickers got 5-ish years ago but the cap limit has hardly budged.

 

I guess if it's in the ballpark, then that's ok.  If I thought $2.5M was a better number it's close enough.  There are too many ways to shave $500K/year off the books among 50 other players.  

 

$3.5M or more, now it's getting up there.  I think $3.5M would be the absolute ceiling for my taste, and I'm not a fan of it even being that high.  Now if he's guaranteed to be as good as he was this past season I'd sign up for $4.5M and save a couple of bucks on not overpaying the Santonio Holmeses of free agency.  Problem is that good (or great) kickers routinely get suddenly and inexplicably worse.

 

But I do put some weight in Westhoff's comments that you mention, so it's a tough call from my keyboard.  

 

Good news for Idzik is he can just decide if he thinks a kicker is worth that much and then pay it or not.  We'll have (or can clear) cap room over the next couple of seasons to pay a kicker $8M if needed, so fitting half that isn't the problem.  It's all about if Idzik thinks this kicker has ~$3M/year more value than we can get off the street.

[jack48]

Field Goals actually win a lot of games.  And guys who have proven they can kick them are very valuable.

[Jetsfan80]

Super Bowl-caliber teams need to have a good kicker.  It's a must.

 

We, however, are NOT a contender, so it doesn't matter much.  I wouldn't overspend on Folk.  Yeah yeah, he was our Offensive MVP last year and all, but that doesn't mean automatically giving him Dan Bailey money.

[peebag]

Don't we have a 3rd rounder we can use for a kicker?

[Sperm Edwards]

Don't we have a 3rd rounder we can use for a kicker?

 

Takes at least a 2nd rounder to get a good one.

[SenorGato]

Graham Gano is a FA and he's not terrible. That said, I don't mind Folk coming back and pretty much have the same views Sperm has shared. I don't particularly care for potentially increasing the odds on getting a comp pick. 

[eboozer]

Get the kid from Rice with maybe one of the conditional picks in the 6th... if he's there.

Cheap kicker for 4+ years

Rice senior Chris Boswell, perhaps the nation's top kicking prospect, kicked the 12th 50-yard field goal of his career Saturday night in the Owls' victory at Kansas, nailing a 56-yarder in the third quarter.

Boswell has hit seven of his past nine attempts from at least 50 yards; he was 6-of-8 last season, when he kicked the most 50-yarders of anyone in the nation.

Boswell made three field goals Saturday and now is 4-of-5 on the season.

Boswell was considered one of the nation's top five kickers in the 2009 recruiting class, and after redshirting that fall, he has lived up to his advance billing. Boswell (6-feet-2, 200 pounds) was 23-of-29 on field-goal attempts last season, and 49 of his 80 kickoffs were touchbacks.

His 55 career field goals are tied for the most among current players, with Clemsonâs Chandler Catanzaro.

[faba]

Folk won a number of games in the end for us- but kickers are so inconsistent year to year so never overpay for one.

[BroadwayJoe12]

My issue with a number like $3M (or more) is that it seems at least 30% higher than top-5 kickers got 5-ish years ago but the cap limit has hardly budged.

 

I guess if it's in the ballpark, then that's ok.  If I thought $2.5M was a better number it's close enough.  There are too many ways to shave $500K/year off the books among 50 other players.  

 

$3.5M or more, now it's getting up there.  I think $3.5M would be the absolute ceiling for my taste, and I'm not a fan of it even being that high.  Now if he's guaranteed to be as good as he was this past season I'd sign up for $4.5M and save a couple of bucks on not overpaying the Santonio Holmeses of free agency.  Problem is that good (or great) kickers routinely get suddenly and inexplicably worse.

 

But I do put some weight in Westhoff's comments that you mention, so it's a tough call from my keyboard.  

 

Good news for Idzik is he can just decide if he thinks a kicker is worth that much and then pay it or not.  We'll have (or can clear) cap room over the next couple of seasons to pay a kicker $8M if needed, so fitting half that isn't the problem.  It's all about if Idzik thinks this kicker has ~$3M/year more value than we can get off the street.

 

 

Pretty much agree on all points. It really comes down to exactly what he's asking. I had the same shocked at Bailey's contract initially and then looked it up and was pretty surprised to see what kickers were making....should have been a damned kicker.  

 

$3 mill seems about right for his past year and I probably wouldn't go higher, becuase he hasn't shown that he can sustain it. I think this negotiation will tell us a lot about Idzik and how he'll operate: will he just give money to Folk or will he set a line and not go over it, even if that line is only 500k per year. 

[New York Mick]

He's been good lately but not always. If he's price is to high sign another one.

[Larz]

**** you jerry jones

 

**** you

[ylekram]

I like folk. he has been on the fringe ever since he got here. worth some money. 3m or less a year and lock him up.he deserves a raise. if he starts going all revis on the jets, let him walk and look at alternatives

[The Crusher]

Jets aren't paying Folk 4mill per. Guys a reliable kicker but lacks leg. The short fall is a risk I'd take by signing a younger cheaper alternative. I expect to see the Jets not to pay that kind of $.

 

 

Agreed.  I like to save our money for a guy that could score 6 points at a time and not 3 or 1.