Aaron Schatz early projection AFC standings

[LAD_Brooklyn]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10963554/new-england-patriots-denver-broncos-top-early-projected-afc-standings-nfl

With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2014 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation. But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2014 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (DVOA), then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.

Today, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2014. (We did the NFC on Tuesday.) Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you wanting more detail, we also have a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Oakland is No. 1) to the easiest (Houston).

When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2014, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2014." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities, so all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2014 season won't really end up with only one team below 6-10 and no teams above 12-4.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 10-6 (10.0 mean wins, strength of schedule: 19)

Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 18)

Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins; SOS: 17)

New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 11)

The Patriots have won 10 or more games in 11 straight years, and it would take something really unexpected to keep them from making it a dozen in a row. This projection is extrapolated from last year's ratings, which came with only half a season of Rob Gronkowski; they should be even better if Gronk can make it back from his ACL tear by Week 1. In addition, the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in seven of the past eight years, including second last year, and they haven't had below-average special teams since 1995 -- one year before they signed a rookie kicker named Adam Vinatieri.

The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold. While most defenses are inconsistent from year to year, the Jets' defense has been consistently strong since Rex Ryan took over as head coach. It will look even better in 2014 when their luck recovering fumbles regresses to the mean; they recovered only one of 13 defensive fumbles last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offense is just as consistent as their defense, and it's been consistently awful.

Buffalo and Miami are Buffalo and Miami, and will continue to be Buffalo and Miami. It certainly wouldn't be a shock to see either EJ Manuel or Ryan Tannehill take a big step forward and get his respective team into the playoffs, but otherwise these teams seem to be mediocre year after year and offer no indication that they're ready to break that trend.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 (9.2 mean wins; SOS: 30)

Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins; SOS: 25)

Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 26)

Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 28)

Cincinnati actually comes out slightly better than Pittsburgh in our mean DVOA projections, but that small difference in strength of schedule is enough to predict Pittsburgh as the more likely division champion. The injury assumptions here may be a little off because while Cincinnati had a low number of injuries, they were to very important players like Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Nonetheless, while Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, getting Maurkice Pouncey back probably means more to the Steelers than Atkins' return means to the Bengals, because the Bengals had more depth behind Atkins.

Baltimore followed up its Super Bowl-winning season by plummeting to 30th in the Football Outsiders offensive ratings, and it would take a lot of rebound for the Ravens to have another winning season.

Cleveland did very well in this year's draft, but we likely won't see immediate results on the field, especially if Josh Gordon gets suspended for the entire season.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 29)

Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 31)

Houston Texans: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (5.9 mean wins; SOS: 27)

This is getting to be the story of the Colts: excellent quarterback leads mediocre team to 10 wins thanks to easy schedule. Then again, the whole division gets the benefit of easy schedules, thanks mostly to playing each other but also because they miss both western divisions in the rotating interdivisional format. In addition, the Colts were second in adjusted games lost behind the Giants last season, so they should be healthier (and thus better) in 2014. Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games could hurt a bit, though.

The Texans are in line for a big improvement thanks to both normal old regression toward the mean and the Plexiglass Principle, which says that teams that decline significantly tend to rebound the next year. Football Outsiders DVOA had Houston 16th on offense and fourth on defense in 2012; last year, the Texans were 29th on offense and 18th on defense. Unfortunately, the defensive rebound (including the addition of No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney) is probably not going to be enough to get them back into the playoffs, even with the easiest schedule in the league, because the quarterback situation makes the offensive rebound a big question mark.

The Titans are another one of those teams that seems to hover around 8-8 every single year, and the Jaguars are still working on rebuilding after cleaning up Gene Smith's mess.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins; SOS: 16)

San Diego Chargers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 14)

Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 5)

Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (4.1 mean wins; SOS: 1)

The AFC West is home to both the best and worst projected teams of 2014. You've now read through two articles in which I keep talking about how offense is more predictable than defense, so it is probably no surprise that the NFL's best offense gets the year's best forecast. There were also a couple of big free-agent signings: Aqib Talib probably cancels out the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was really good last year, and DeMarcus Ware is a big addition. Plus, the Broncos were actually one of the most injured teams in the league last year after above-average health in both 2011 and 2012. You know about defensive players like Von Miller and Chris Harris who went down near the end of the year, but don't forget they also lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the entire season.

On the other hand, we've got the Raiders, who lost their best offensive lineman (Jared Veldheer) and best defensive lineman (Lamarr Houston) in free agency. Right now we have them projected in last place for offense and 31st for defense, with the hardest schedule in the league. It's not going to be a pretty season in Oakland.

In between are the Chargers and Chiefs. The projection here may be a bit too sanguine about the Chargers maintaining last year's offensive renaissance, especially with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt now gone to run the Titans. On the other hand, the Chargers' defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA last year, is almost certain to improve.

The Chiefs are living in a new world where they've gone from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest. They also had the NFL's lowest adjusted games lost total in 2013 and are almost assuredly going to suffer more injuries in 2014.

[Jetlife33]

As much as I disagree with his projection on the Jets, I think I agree with him on the division winners. I expect the Chiefs to regress as well.

[RutgersJetFan]

Is it just me or have win projection pieces on TV and the web really taken a jump this year?

[Bugg]

Is it just me or have win projection pieces on TV and the web really taken a jump this year?

It's easy filler and when you're wrong there's no consequence. 3 day weekend? Draft report card or predctions takes about 10 minutes before you hit the exits.

[Larz]

so last years good teams will be good this year.  I hope he didn't spend more than 3 minutes on this tripe

 

ok

 

isn't there a lot of turnover in division winners every year ?

[Matt39]

I love how Schatz is allowed to be a fan with the Patriots and everything else is by the book. 

[RutgersJetFan]

isn't there a lot of turnover in division winners every year ?

Not in our division.

[Il Mostro]

Schatz is a Schitz.  Only his mother loves him -- if only he knew who she was.

[T0mShane]

I must say, even I am surprised at how little respect the Jets are being given, across the board.

[Gastineau Lives]

I must say, even I am surprised at how little respect the Jets are being given, across the board.

 

Thanks, Izdick.

[32EBoozer]

What's up with the SOS? No way are we bottom 25% re: SOS! And why do the #'s appear so arbitrary? NE (2x) Chicago, Denver, KC, Detroit, GB.

NE has same schedule except they get Colts while we get Tenn & they get Bengals while we get Pitt. Prefer Tenn over Colts. Pitt vs. Bengals a wash

 

On a good note 9 wins has us in serious Playoff contention.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10963554/new-england-patriots-denver-broncos-top-early-projected-afc-standings-nfl

With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2014 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation. But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2014 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (DVOA), then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.

Today, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2014. (We did the NFC on Tuesday.) Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you wanting more detail, we also have a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Oakland is No. 1) to the easiest (Houston).

When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2014, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2014." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities, so all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2014 season won't really end up with only one team below 6-10 and no teams above 12-4.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 10-6 (10.0 mean wins, strength of schedule: 19)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 18)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins; SOS: 17)
New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 11)

The Patriots have won 10 or more games in 11 straight years, and it would take something really unexpected to keep them from making it a dozen in a row. This projection is extrapolated from last year's ratings, which came with only half a season of Rob Gronkowski; they should be even better if Gronk can make it back from his ACL tear by Week 1. In addition, the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in seven of the past eight years, including second last year, and they haven't had below-average special teams since 1995 -- one year before they signed a rookie kicker named Adam Vinatieri.

The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold. While most defenses are inconsistent from year to year, the Jets' defense has been consistently strong since Rex Ryan took over as head coach. It will look even better in 2014 when their luck recovering fumbles regresses to the mean; they recovered only one of 13 defensive fumbles last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offense is just as consistent as their defense, and it's been consistently awful.

Buffalo and Miami are Buffalo and Miami, and will continue to be Buffalo and Miami. It certainly wouldn't be a shock to see either EJ Manuel or Ryan Tannehill take a big step forward and get his respective team into the playoffs, but otherwise these teams seem to be mediocre year after year and offer no indication that they're ready to break that trend.


AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 (9.2 mean wins; SOS: 30)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins; SOS: 25)
Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 26)
Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 28)

Cincinnati actually comes out slightly better than Pittsburgh in our mean DVOA projections, but that small difference in strength of schedule is enough to predict Pittsburgh as the more likely division champion. The injury assumptions here may be a little off because while Cincinnati had a low number of injuries, they were to very important players like Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Nonetheless, while Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, getting Maurkice Pouncey back probably means more to the Steelers than Atkins' return means to the Bengals, because the Bengals had more depth behind Atkins.

Baltimore followed up its Super Bowl-winning season by plummeting to 30th in the Football Outsiders offensive ratings, and it would take a lot of rebound for the Ravens to have another winning season.
Cleveland did very well in this year's draft, but we likely won't see immediate results on the field, especially if Josh Gordon gets suspended for the entire season.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 29)
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 31)
Houston Texans: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (5.9 mean wins; SOS: 27)

This is getting to be the story of the Colts: excellent quarterback leads mediocre team to 10 wins thanks to easy schedule. Then again, the whole division gets the benefit of easy schedules, thanks mostly to playing each other but also because they miss both western divisions in the rotating interdivisional format. In addition, the Colts were second in adjusted games lost behind the Giants last season, so they should be healthier (and thus better) in 2014. Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games could hurt a bit, though.
The Texans are in line for a big improvement thanks to both normal old regression toward the mean and the Plexiglass Principle, which says that teams that decline significantly tend to rebound the next year. Football Outsiders DVOA had Houston 16th on offense and fourth on defense in 2012; last year, the Texans were 29th on offense and 18th on defense. Unfortunately, the defensive rebound (including the addition of No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney) is probably not going to be enough to get them back into the playoffs, even with the easiest schedule in the league, because the quarterback situation makes the offensive rebound a big question mark.

The Titans are another one of those teams that seems to hover around 8-8 every single year, and the Jaguars are still working on rebuilding after cleaning up Gene Smith's mess.


AFC West

Denver Broncos: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins; SOS: 16)
San Diego Chargers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 5)
Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (4.1 mean wins; SOS: 1)

The AFC West is home to both the best and worst projected teams of 2014. You've now read through two articles in which I keep talking about how offense is more predictable than defense, so it is probably no surprise that the NFL's best offense gets the year's best forecast. There were also a couple of big free-agent signings: Aqib Talib probably cancels out the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was really good last year, and DeMarcus Ware is a big addition. Plus, the Broncos were actually one of the most injured teams in the league last year after above-average health in both 2011 and 2012. You know about defensive players like Von Miller and Chris Harris who went down near the end of the year, but don't forget they also lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the entire season.

On the other hand, we've got the Raiders, who lost their best offensive lineman (Jared Veldheer) and best defensive lineman (Lamarr Houston) in free agency. Right now we have them projected in last place for offense and 31st for defense, with the hardest schedule in the league. It's not going to be a pretty season in Oakland.

In between are the Chargers and Chiefs. The projection here may be a bit too sanguine about the Chargers maintaining last year's offensive renaissance, especially with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt now gone to run the Titans. On the other hand, the Chargers' defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA last year, is almost certain to improve.

The Chiefs are living in a new world where they've gone from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest. They also had the NFL's lowest adjusted games lost total in 2013 and are almost assuredly going to suffer more injuries in 2014.

[flgreen]

Well the good news is perhaps we can get the second pick in the draft and get a QB

[faba]

OK that was real analysis of the Jets moves- not.

[slats]

Jets were projected to be a <4 win team last year, and to finish last in the division. Who cares?

[JoeC36]

I think someone is butthurt over this. I cannot remember who though. 

[Gastineau Lives]

Time for Rex to overachieve again. I'm excited.

[T0mShane]

Time for Rex to overachieve again. I'm excited.

Maybe we should hold a telethon

[faba]

Maybe we should hold a telethon

Lets have  a poll again

[JetsFanInDenver]

I wonder where these guys get their crystal balls.

[CTM]

Is it just me or have win projection pieces on TV and the web really taken a jump this year?

Yes they have...

Unfortunately there hadn't been a corresponding jump in fans understanding of the stats

[Matt39]

Yes they have...

Unfortunately there hadn't been a corresponding jump in fans understanding of the stats

 

I miss the days of just being a fan with false hope.

[Larz]

they should have just gone with "knee jerk reaction of the QB's reputation"  projections

[Latinlawyer]

Bulletin Board material right here. If I was Rex, I would post all this negative sh*t up in the locker room and let them know how sh*tty the world thinks they will be.....week after week I would remind them how sh*tty the world thinks they are. The thing with the Jets is that they can't let up they have to keep the foot on the gas pedal...if they have some success they can't start relaxing. F*ck the mainstream media...10-6 at least this year. I am going to go to Vegas with the wife and I am betting the over for the Jets. 

 

LL

[JohnJ]

Shathead, "The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold".

 

Translation: 'I really don't know. They were prolly lucky last year and I have no clue if they're better, tho some people said they did okay in the draft. I'll go with the flow, but cover my mass at the same time."

 

My  twelve 12 year old niece knows more about the team than him

[Jetscode1]

How about this one...

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1728468-nfl-predictions-2013-final-standings-and-win-loss-projections-for-all-32-teams/page/5

[Matt39]

Shathead, "The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold".

 

Translation: 'I really don't know. They were prolly lucky last year and I have no clue if they're better, tho some people said they did okay in the draft. I'll go with the flow, but cover my mass at the same time."

 

My  twelve 12 year old niece knows more about the team than him

 

Schatz is the ultimate "when you're right 52% of the time you're wrong 48% of the time" type of guy.

[jack48]

Schatz is a Schitz.  Only his mother loves him -- if only he knew who she was.

I will say it again: who the hell is Aaron Schatz?

[Irish Jet]

Yes they have...

Unfortunately there hadn't been a corresponding jump in fans understanding of the stats

 

Understanding how? 

 

Projecting records based on stats in the NFL is absolutely pointless, considering the consistent turnover in staff/players and the extent in which those players progress/regress year on year. Generally this has the good teams from last year being good again this year, with the same teams either in or competing for the playoffs. In the NFL that almost never happens and there's always huge fluctuations both ways, with a select few well/badly run franchises generally staying consistent. 

 

The Jets fluctuate as much as anyone. The analysis of our projection is also laughable.

[BurnleyJet]

The only teams you can reliably guess is, surprise, suprise, the one with all World Quarterbacks. Everyone else it's a crap shoot.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Yes they have...

Unfortunately there hadn't been a corresponding jump in fans understanding of the stats

 

Sure there has. We didn't even understand them then, not really. Also, if you necro some of our old JI threads I think you will be somewhat surprised to see some of the names who wandered into the minefield and got themselves blown up.

[RutgersJetFan]

Yes they have...

Unfortunately there hadn't been a corresponding jump in fans understanding of the stats

 

Shane came around on PFF. It's a start.

[slats]

Shane came around on PFF. It's a start.

He's just faking it to impress you. I'm a little surprised you fell for it.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Shane came around on PFF. It's a start.

 

If by this you mean you tricked Shane into thinking PFF is stats, hysterical. If it means you actually believe that, more so.

[jgb]

sounds about right. last year's team in this year's schedule would be about 6 wins.

[RutgersJetFan]

If by this you mean you tricked Shane into thinking PFF is stats, hysterical. If it means you actually believe that, more so.

I mean he now can acknowledge charts and graphs as useful things.