Thoughts on Wilkersons new contract Posted on July 16, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

[oc_jet]

http://overthecap.com/thoughts-wilkersons-new-contract/#more-12163

Thoughts on Wilkersons new contract

Posted on July 16, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

I’m as stunned as anyone today that Muhammad Wilkerson signed an extension with the Jets. Of all the franchise players I felt he was the least likely of all to sign a new contract. After all these negotiations began over two years ago when John Idzik was the GM and it was hard to imagine after all that time a last ditch offer getting it done but somehow it did. We don’t have any firm numbers on the Wilkerson deal yet besides a report of a $15 million signing bonus and $37M two year total, but as a Jets fan I wanted to write about the contract anyway even with limited info.

The Jets backed themselves into a corner with this contract. No matter what the outcome today they were coming out of this one with egg on their face. Had they done this deal a few years ago when they should have signed the contract they would have likely saved themselves $3 million a year in overall contract value and more importantly millions in guarantees and cap charges.

 

The Jets basically seemed to concede the Olivier Vernon contract to get Wilkerson to sign his contract. Vernon signed an $85 million contract this offseason with the Giants with a $40 million two year payout and $52.5 million vesting guarantee. Based on the initial leaks it sounds as if Wilkerson will make $3 million less over two years with the chance to earn $1.5 million more over three years. Contracts like this did not exist when the Jets opened negotiations a few years ago.

What happened is the Jets could never come up to what Wilkerson wanted (my guess is as the time $14M per year with $28M guaranteed would have been the number) and each year the number grew as the cap grew. The Jets tried to make the best of a bad situation by trading him this offseason but found no takers at a price that they could justify. Now he became a burden on the Jets salary cap because of a $15.7 million cap hit with no end game for the team.

The Jets lost two years of proration and over $8 million in guarantees that they could have rolled into this contract by waiting so long here.  Basically at this point the Jets would have finished paying all of Wilkersons guarantees by the end of this season and in 2017 they would have the option of trading, cutting, restructuring or anything else. When you consider the presence of Sheldon Richardson and later Leonard Williams that early extension was the feasible way to spread out the cap hits and have the roster flexibility to allow that massive D-line investment. Now they are either going to spend a mini-fortune on the line or going to trade Richardson, who is extension eligible.  I don’t get that logic at all.

It’s possible that negotiations with Richardson also went in circles this offseason and he has now taken Wilkerson’s place as potential trade bait. Richardson has some off the field issues that Wilkerson has never had which makes his status far less certain. It would not surprise me if in the coming days something about Richardson’s future comes out that was a catalyst for this contract.

I have seen a number of people categorize this contract as two years and an option. I really don’t see it that way. While the signing bonus isn’t massive at $15 million, it is rare that contracts this size don’t see three years happen. Far too often we get wrapped up in guarantees but the sunk cost or belief in a player is generally a bigger factor.  Look at players like Ryan Clady and Victor Cruz who contributed very little because of injuries after signing new deals with their teams and they all saw three years.

If the Jets really wanted to move on from Mo in two years they would have saved themselves $2.5 million in salary by playing the franchise tag game. If you want to say that they are willing to trade him after two years I can buy that argument as $2.5M for a first round pick isn’t a bad investment but teams generally hold onto these players. Unless a team is using the all cash approach like the Raiders, Bucs and a few others a $9M dead charge in year 3 is pretty significant.

The other thing I see being written about is Ryan Fitzpatrick (Im as guilty as anyone as I tweeted the same) but Im not sure there is much correlation here. Wilkerson was set to count for $15.7M on the cap this year. We know he received a $15M signing bonus which will count $3M on the cap but beyond that I haven’t read anything or been told anything on the cash flows. The going rate for a player on this contract should be between $21.5M in year 1 (Justin Houston) and around $29M (Vernon and Fletcher Cox).

Those numbers should put Mo year 1 cap hit between $9.5M and $17M. Since the Jets had one of the worst cap positions in the NFL I think we can eliminate the $17M charge and estimate the charge between $9.5 and $13M. That would put the Jets cap room between $6.5M and $9.5M. When rosters expand to 53 that will likely cost the Jets around $1.5M and planning for injuries and other items likely means $2.5 to $3M. Those still are not significant numbers for a quarterback. It doesn’t mean it wont happen, but Wilkerson would have had to receive very little raise for this contract to really signal it is going to happen. All this did was ensure the Jets have room to function not really do anything else.

The one thing that this contract does accomplish is sending the message to the team about taking care of their own. It seemed pretty clear that the Mo and Fitzpatrick contract squabbles have left a negative impression with the rest of the players on the team. It’s a hard line for a team to walk because quite honestly the Jets have had no reason to extend anyone on a team that’s been pretty bad from 2011 through 2014. But between Fitzpatrick and Mo teammates were starting to question the front office and if rumors came out about Richardson not being given a great offer you can run into a bad situation.

 

As a fan am I excited Mo is back for the long haul? Sure. He’s a terrific player and I think its rare for 1^strounders to dog it on a second contract. If that’s in their system generally it shows itself early in their career and then they explode when its time for a new deal. Mo’s been great since day 1. But the Jets just botched the way they handled this whole thing. They should have been able to deal with all these D-line deals in a very different manner. I just hope they deal with Richardson far better than this whether it ends up an extension towards the end of the year or a trade next year. They can chalk this up as a mistake but this is their one mulligan. They cant have more of these and expect to compete for a title barring a draft miracle at QB.

[LIJetsFan]

This guy talks about the Jets botching it for the past two years.  News flash Jason, our GM has only been here for a year.  Further, he talks about how much $ would have been saved had Mo been signed two years ago or last year.  New flash Jason, we had Mo on the cheap rookie contract those years which gave us cap room to make other moves.  So at worst that is a wash.  

I really hate these beat writers who take a one sided approach.  Otherwise, not a bad article Jason      

[KRL]

Fair critique of the situation.  But the person who really blew it was Idzik.  If he
was forward thinking he should've given Wilkerson an extension after the 2013 season.
We had a ton of cap space and Wilkerson was under control for 2014 & 2015.  Idzik
should've "tacked" on 3 years (3 yrs. $36 million, 18 guaranteed?) to the back end of
the deal and saved us millions 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Mo played out a 6.8m 4 year rookie contract and a 6.9M 5th year option that totaled < 15m over the last 5 years (average of 3m per year)

It's hard to say paying him 14m for the last two years was saving huge cap $$ unless the Jets did not spend the minimum (true for Idzik, not true for Money Mac)

Plus Mo is a better player then he was two years ago, I think it worked out well for both sides, agree it would have been nice to avoid the delays and potential holdouts but that's the business 

also fair to say, it would not be a surprise to hear news on Richardson in the near future

[Jetdawgg]

The Jets as a franchise have made errors here. This FO has done their best to remedy the situation imo

[Jet Nut]

Jason should stick to reporting contracts and the cap. 

 

[EM31]

1 hour ago, KRL said:

Fair critique of the situation.  But the person who really blew it was Idzik.  If he
was forward thinking he should've given Wilkerson an extension after the 2013 season.
We had a ton of cap space and Wilkerson was under control for 2014 & 2015.  Idzik
should've "tacked" on 3 years (3 yrs. $36 million, 18 guaranteed?) to the back end of
the deal and saved us millions 

+1000

I remember a few of us being quite vocal on this topic at the time.  Oh well... Missed opportunities.

[oc_jet]

1 hour ago, KRL said:

Fair critique of the situation.  But the person who really blew it was Idzik.  If he
was forward thinking he should've given Wilkerson an extension after the 2013 season.
We had a ton of cap space and Wilkerson was under control for 2014 & 2015.  Idzik
should've "tacked" on 3 years (3 yrs. $36 million, 18 guaranteed?) to the back end of
the deal and saved us millions 

 

43 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Jason should stick to reporting contracts and the cap. 

 

Agreed on both........................

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Jason should stick to reporting contracts and the cap. 

 

agreed.  That article displays  some fairly myopic opinions and assumptions, none of which corroborated by any facts from Jason.  With all that shot-in-the-dark speculation from Jason, you are right.  He should stick to his calculator and number crunching.  That's what he is good at.  Not this.

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

agreed.  That article displays  some fairly myopic opinions and assumptions, none of which corroborated by any facts from Jason.  With all that shot-in-the-dark speculation from Jason, you are right.  He should stick to his calculator and number crunching.  That's what he is good at.  Not this.

He's trying to expand his market and try and get a PFT type buyout like Florio got from NBC... IMO

Can't blame the guy... everyone's looking to cash in except for our beloved Max!

If PFF can get their "CRAP" analytics picked up by the ESPN's of the world, I can see Jason trying to develop his brand to get some $ back for all the hard work he's put in.

 

 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

6 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Jason should stick to reporting contracts and the cap. 

 

Isn't that what he's doing?

[RutgersJetFan]

I don't think many of you know Jason too well. 

Trying to be Mike Florio. That's a new one.

[JiFtheOracle]

Thanks, Izdick. 

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Isn't that what he's doing?

No, he's editorializing about what they have done, should have done, might have left etc. 

[Il Mostro]

10 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Jason should stick to reporting contracts and the cap. 

 

 

Co-sign. Like we needed another redundant thread this far after the fact -- this guy's mind is an empty vessel.  If he ever had an original thought, it would die of loneliness.  What's another word for "blogger"?  "Unemployable".

[David Harris]

Jayson's site is great and his analysis is reasonable here.  

He doesn't take into account how cheap we had Mo by not extending him years ago. That's the big flaw here.  But he's correct that all we did was pay top dollar at the height of the current market.

Salary cap will continue to go up though, it won't be the current NBA dollars but this deal may look better and better 3-4 years down the road, who knows.  Mangold can be cut anytime with no cap ramifications and after the 2017 season a 33 year old Revis at $10 mill a year for 2 years may be a ridiculous steal and probably is the reason he fired his agents.

[dbatesman]

Jason should stick to sports

[hawk]

13 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

This guy talks about the Jets botching it for the past two years.  News flash Jason, our GM has only been here for a year.  Further, he talks about how much $ would have been saved had Mo been signed two years ago or last year.  New flash Jason, we had Mo on the cheap rookie contract those years which gave us cap room to make other moves.  So at worst that is a wash.  

I really hate these beat writers who take a one sided approach.  Otherwise, not a bad article Jason      

He said the Jets should have signed (extended) him the past two years.  They should have.

He said they could have had prorated over two more years, which actually is inaccurate, but they could have prorated the signing bonus over those rookie contract cheap years.  Extending him two years ago wouldn't have abolished the rookie contract, just gave them flexibility with the signing bonus.  

[Tinstar]

Wilkerson earned this contract with his play and his character . Next up is Richardson who's off to a real spotty start His play has been sub-par and his character is up for debate due to his past actions. Williams is in the distance and a work in progress .

[Beerfish]

I like Jason and most of his comments but like a LOT of people he is totally out to lunch on the 'jets should have signed him previously' angle.  Mo wilk had not put up a year like last year up to this point and in a number of years he played half a season,  People want to go back two years and assume he was going to be as good as he was last year.

[Maxman]

On 7/16/2016 at 10:46 AM, 32EBoozer said:

He's trying to expand his market and try and get a PFT type buyout like Florio got from NBC... IMO

Can't blame the guy... everyone's looking to cash in except for our beloved Max!

If PFF can get their "CRAP" analytics picked up by the ESPN's of the world, I can see Jason trying to develop his brand to get some $ back for all the hard work he's put in.

 

 

Oh I am going to cash in alright. Working on a plan that will keep the board and site free. But every post you make you can't use vowels. Well technically you can use vowels but they cost 10 cents each.

Details coming soon lol.

[Savage69]

37 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Oh I am going to cash in alright. Working on a plan that will keep the board and site free. But every post you make you can't use vowels. Well technically you can use vowels but they cost 10 cents each.

Details coming soon lol.

And that's why Tom has never been on the Wheel of Fortune..

[LionelRichie]

Jason is a die-hard Jets fan.  Not sure where the hate is coming from just because he's providing an unbiased, non-homer view of the contract.   

Its really tough to argue with anything he points out.  mo is a great player, doesn't dominate games like Watt, and is being paid a ton of money for a non-qb and a team without a qb.   

[Sperm Edwards]

On 7/16/2016 at 7:41 AM, LIJetsFan said:

This guy talks about the Jets botching it for the past two years.  News flash Jason, our GM has only been here for a year.  Further, he talks about how much $ would have been saved had Mo been signed two years ago or last year.  New flash Jason, we had Mo on the cheap rookie contract those years which gave us cap room to make other moves.  So at worst that is a wash.  

I really hate these beat writers who take a one sided approach.  Otherwise, not a bad article Jason      

I agree and I don't. 

First things: Jason is not a beat writer, and despite your "news flash" comment that presumes the contrary, he acknowledges in the first paragraph that this began under Idzik ("these negotiations began over two years ago when John Idzik was the GM"). But Maccagnan has been the GM for the past 2 offseasons: 2015 and 2016. He could have extended him in 2015, and could have also extended him in 2016 before FA began (and therefore before Vernon's giant deal with the Giants). That's two years.

What is dismissed in the article is the year-to-year commitment advantage for the team that only seems like nothing due to the benefit of hindsight. However one wants to dismiss it now, if Mo's play had gone south, or if he'd sustained an injury that robbed him of his upper level ability, the Jets could have been out at the end of that current season. That's bad for the player's future, but good for the team's future. It's no accident guaranteed money is all-important to players. So say Mo had ripped his knee to shreds Keller-style during the 2014 season. He was making I think $1.3M-ish of new money that year. Locking him up long term before that season would mean, in that situation, the Jets would have been on the hook for another $25-30M for a player from whom they wouldn't nearly get proportional production. The year-to-year flexibility allowed the Jets to get off without paying him a nickel over that $1.3M. Repeat that again for 2015, where the total guarantees again was Mo's current salary (this time some $7M). Mo incurred all the risk those 2 years. Again, it's only nothing because we now know in hindsight a career-altering injury didn't occur.

The part you're dismissing, though, is that the team could have extended him with a contract higher on guarantees and not necessarily higher on up-front signing bonus. A new contract in 2014 doesn't mean they tear up his old one; it's an extension. So if his SB on a 2014 extension was the same $15M in up front signing bonus before his new high-salary extension kicked in, for example, it really only would have boosted his cap number by $3M in both 2014 and 2015 (from roughly $2M and $7M to $5M and $10M). If they truly wanted to extend him that badly, this is small potatoes on the cap for each year. He's a long-term cog on the team and they piss away more than $3M/year on bad acquisitions (CJ<1K, Vick, Harvin, Cro part 2).

He is frankly correct about botching it for 2 years, with the exception of knowing what we know now: Mo didn't suffer a serious, career-altering injury. Mo would have been locked up for much less than this deal, and the difference on the 2014 and 2015 caps would have been insignificant. The other reason I think he's correct is it was widely reported that the Jets made it known Mo was available via trade each of these past 2 offseasons. Where Maccagnan (not Idzik) botched that - and Maccagnan was here this year and last year - was in grossly overestimating Mo's worth in trade, and having that impact the lack of serious negotiations until the surprise offer this week. Despite even media hacks pointing to how difficult a tag & trade is, he still tried and failed. In doing so, he painted himself into a corner where he could have ended up still losing Mo long term and getting nothing for him in return. This last minute offer was to prevent this lack of foresight from becoming reality. 

The area where he may be wrong is that Mo may have agreed to an extension where he still collected a low salary in 2014, but likely would have wanted the team's $7M option for 2015 thrown away.  The Jets saved a bunch of salary (at least $7M) by having him play under the team option amount. Amortize that over 5 years and they saved $1.3M/year by letting him play out his first 5 years without an extension. So while it looks like a $17M/year extension, the Jets also save the $1.3M/year they didn't spend, all other things being equal. Then again, all other things wouldn't be equal, and it likely just means the Jets wouldn't have spent $7M on another, like Cromartie.

Basically I think this was always the fallback: if all else fails, then extend him last minute. But the team definitely tried to get at least a 1st round pick value for him, to avoid this extension, for 2 offseasons. 

[LIJetsFan]

"The Jets backed themselves into a corner with this contract. No matter what the outcome today they were coming out of this one with egg on their face. Had they done this deal a few years ago when they should have signed the contract they would have likely saved themselves $3 million a year in overall contract value and more importantly millions in guarantees and cap charges."

The bold is why I complained.  Had Jason said "had Idzik" instead of "had they" I wouldn't have felt the need to jump to Mac's defense.  It felt like Jason was Taring Mac with Idzik's brush.

 

[RoadFan]

Richardson should be the odd man out of the D-Line group anyway.  Immature,  entitled, volatile, and probably stupid.  Wilk is none of those things.

[slats]

30 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Richardson should be the odd man out of the D-Line group anyway.  Immature,  entitled, volatile, and probably stupid.  Wilk is none of those things.

Also, maybe, best player on the team. Actually not also, as none of those other adjectives really apply. 

[Sperm Edwards]

35 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

"The Jets backed themselves into a corner with this contract. No matter what the outcome today they were coming out of this one with egg on their face. Had they done this deal a few years ago when they should have signed the contract they would have likely saved themselves $3 million a year in overall contract value and more importantly millions in guarantees and cap charges."

The bold is why I complained.  Had Jason said "had Idzik" instead of "had they" I wouldn't have felt the need to jump to Mac's defense.  It felt like Jason was Taring Mac with Idzik's brush.

 

Maccagnan is now part of "they" (the Jets). Idzik was then part of "they" (the Jets). 

I missed the part where he blamed Maccagnan for not locking up Mo a few years ago. He said the JETS backed themselves into a corner, and the Jets did back themselves into a corner. Frankly, Maccagnan DID back himself into a corner these past 2 offseasons, and left himself with only 1 choice: cave in before the deadline passed.

I didn't get the slightest impression that anyone was blaming Maccagnan for not signing Mo while he was still employed by the Texans. It isn't even remotely implied. Hence placing the blame on "the Jets" and "they" - not "Maccagnan" and "he" - even in the paragraph you yourself are quoting. I think you are being unfair. Both Idzik and Maccagnan were culpable. They were both Jets GMs negotiating with Mo at different times over the past 3 offseasons. They. 

[Larz]

14 minutes ago, slats said:

Also, maybe, best player on the team. Actually not also, as none of those other adjectives really apply. 

not even close to best player on team.  top 10

[slats]

1 minute ago, Larz said:

not even close to best player on team.  top 10

Nine Jets players better than Sheldon Richardson. Go. 

[Larz]

Just now, slats said:

Nine Jets players better than Sheldon Richardson. Go. 

make a case that he is the best player on the team.  go

[Mike135]

Just now, Larz said:

make a case that he is the best player on the team.  go

When you factor in age, I think he probably is the best player.  As in, you're building an expansion team from scratch, who's the first player you take from the roster?  

Of course then there's the suspension issues that raise concerns and could change things a bit.

[SenorGato]

4 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

When you factor in age, I think he probably is the best player. 

Richardson is 13 months and a week younger than Wilkerson with two fewer seasons under his belt. He's not super young, basically, more average for a 4th year pro.

Wilkerson is guy you take from this roster first.

[Larz]

4 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

When you factor in age, I think he probably is the best player.  As in, you're building an expansion team from scratch, who's the first player you take from the roster?  

Of course then there's the suspension issues that raise concerns and could change things a bit.

he was a ghost last season.  he is the classic "plays great in his contract year, gets paid and goes dana stubblefield on you" type of guy. 

he lied to the coaches the day his arrest was announced, said he hadn't been in trouble.  lied straight to their faces

he can dominate when he feels like it.  I'm not sure I would even build a d-line around him much less a take him first of a roster. 

 

[slats]

21 minutes ago, Larz said:

make a case that he is the best player on the team.  go

Lol, yeah, tough task. I get it. Be even harder to name nine better players under 30. Oh wait, that would be completely impossible. You're forgiven.