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Vegas, Unconscionable Skeptics of the Two-Safety Strategy, Dramatically Downgrades Jets Odds Post-Draft

T0mShane

By T0mShane
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T0mShane

T0mShane

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The Team With The Most Improved Super Bowl LII Odds After The Dravt May Surprise You

by John Breech

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the-team-with-most-improved-super-bowl-lii-odds-after-the-draft-might-surprise-you/

No starting quarterback over the age of 40 has ever won a Super Bowl, but don't tell that to the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, because they clearly don't care. 

In their latest Super Bowl odds, the William Hill sportsbook in Nevada has listed the Patriots as a heavy favorite to win it all next season, despite the fact that Tom Brady will be 40 by the time his team kicks off the regular season in September. 

The odds released by William Hill this week are the first ones to come out since the NFL Draft ended back on April 29. 

The Patriots, who were originally listed as a 4-1 favorite to win it all when William Hill first released its odds in February, are now being given 3-1 odds. That's the best odds of any team. 

The latest odds take into account what each team did both in free agency and during the draft. 

So who's the biggest winner in William Hill's post-draft odds? That would be the Houston Texans . 

The Texans saw their odds drastically improve after they traded up to grab Deshaun Watson during the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27. The Texans, who opened at 40-1 to win Super Bowl LII, are now listed at 20-1. 

That's the largest jump that any team made in William Hill's latest odds. Basically, getting rid of Brock Osweiler and adding a quarterback who's not Brock Osweiler did wonders for the Texans' odds. The Browns should think about doing the same thing. 

The Giants and Eagles were two other teams who saw their odds improve. As a matter of fact, the NFC East was one of just two divisions -- along with the AFC West -- where every team had an odds change over the past three months. 

In the NFC East, the Cowboys ' odds got slightly worse (from 7-1 to 8-1), which probably had a lot to do with the fact that the Giants and Eagles both improved. 

Oddsmakers clearly loved the fact that Carson Wentz now has more weapons, because the Eagles went from 50-1 to 40-1. That was the second-best improvement by any team. 

In something that was somewhat of a surprise, the Giants saw their odds go from 25-1 to 18-1. That 18-to-1 listing makes the Giants one of the top eight favorites to win it all next season. 

By the way, since we're talking about New York, now seems like the time to bring up the Jets , who have turned into a laughingstock in Vegas. The oddsmakers clearly hated the Jets' draft, what they did in free agency and the fact they don't have a starting quarterback, because the Jets' odds tumbled. 

The Jets went from 75-1 in February to 200-1 as of this week. Not only did the Jets have the ugliest drop on William Hill's list, but they have the second-worst odds of any team (in news that probably won't surprise you, the Browns are the worst at 250-1). 

 

The oddsmakers also had a good laugh at the Bears ' expense. Following a draft where Chicago pulled off one of the most questionable trades in recent NFL history, the Bears' odds fell from 100-1 to 125-1. It appears that oddsmakers don't think the team has any hope in 2017 with Mike Glennon or Mitchell Trubisky. 

Anyway, the most popular team to bet on over the past three months has been the Raiders , who've pulled in 11 percent of the Super Bowl bets at William Hill. Packers and Cowboys fans have also been active, with seven percent of Super Bowl bets being placed on each of those two teams. 

The Patriots and Seahawks are next on the list, with each team getting six percent of all Super Bowl bets at William Hill. 

Although the Patriots haven't been the most popular team to bet on, they are pulling in the big bettors. Through three months, the Patriots have pulled in 23 percent of the money wagered at William Hill, which is the highest of any NFL team. 

Basically, the six percent of fans who have bet on the Patriots have bet 23 percent of the money, while the 11 percent of Raiders fans who have bet on Oakland have only bet nine percent of the money. Packers and Cowboys fans have also been betting big, with each team pulling in eight percent of the money on Super Bowl LII bets. 

You can see the Super Bowl odds for every team listed below. Super Bowl LII will kick off on Feb. 4, 2018, in Minneapolis. 

Super Bowl LII odds 

(via William Hill) 

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Sperm Edwards

Sperm Edwards

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47 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

By the way, since we're talking about New York, now seems like the time to bring up the Jets , who have turned into a laughingstock in Vegas. The oddsmakers clearly hated the Jets' draft, what they did in free agency and the fact they don't have a starting quarterback, because the Jets' odds tumbled. 

The Jets went from 75-1 in February to 200-1 as of this week. Not only did the Jets have the ugliest drop on William Hill's list, but they have the second-worst odds of any team (in news that probably won't surprise you, the Browns are the worst at 250-1). 

"Unconscionable Skeptics" of the Two-Safety Strategy?

lol

In fairness, the unconscionable skeptics are the betting public. The odds are made based on how they think the people will bet. If they didn't move the odds down, too few people would bet on the Jets at the previous, now-too-high odds. Or that's what Vegas believes.

Then again, I'd "bet" a disproportionate percentage people to bet on the Jets to win the SB in general are Jets fans (in contrast to those betting on the Pats or other good teams that actually have a chance). 

In conclusion, the "unconscionable skeptics" are therefore the (betting) Jets fans themselves.

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win4ever

win4ever

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It's quite clear we are in a rebuilding year, so I'm not surprised about the lack of faith in them.  

However, Vegas odds aren't really as much about their predictions based on expert research, because they really aren't in the business of football.  They are in the business of gambling, and reading reactions.  Right now

Houston made a big move with Watson, already have a top tier team everywhere else so they are going to be a sleeper team now (especially since Watson is a known name) and many bettors will see that they gave the Pats the most trouble in the AFC Playoffs last year, and think Watson could elevate them.  That's why they moved, because they are going to be a dark horse darling now in that division.  

The team that improved the most is really the Bucs this year, because imagine stopping Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Goodwin, OJ Howard, with Doug Martin in the backfield.  That team is going to move up as well because the money is going to come in hard for them.  

If anyone Bets on the Jets to win the superbowl this year, they should get some gambling addiction counseling because unless Hackenberg or Petty turn to Tom Brady, we don't have a shot.   

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Jiminy Cricket

Jiminy Cricket

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

No starting quarterback over the age of 40 has ever won a Super Bowl

Don't pay any attention to the men behind the curtain, they are merely manipulating you into betting on the team they have chosen for you. I live in Vegas where it is well known that the odds are actually set by the illuminati.

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CTM

CTM

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4 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Except Browns > Jets situationally. Better draft, Better Roster, Better Coach, Better front office and Have an extra 1 next year to get one of the bluechip QBs. 

I suggest you lay next seasons fried pork products budget on the Jets. Easy winner 

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CTM

CTM

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51 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

Fake news, Browns are better


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

Maybe, but there's exactly 0% chance the Jets get #1 spot with a once in a decade type QB prospect available. Browns neither, look for SF to land it if Darnold holds up and enters draft 

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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37 minutes ago, Larz said:

tom

its ok to think positive about the team and praise isn't a curse

I know I wield tremendous influence on both coasts, but even my vast intellectual capital doesn't impact the wiseguys in Vegas, Larz.

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NoBowles

NoBowles

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14 minutes ago, JiF said:

Weird.  I thought Watson sucked so how did the Texans jump so much?

 

Watson is better than anything else they had on their roster, that improves them. Still does not mean he is a franchise QB. Besides, Houston probably gets extra credit for their QB prowess. After all, the last QB they went after was a grand slam for them, so they get the benefit of the doubt here.

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JiFtheOracle

JiFtheOracle

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4 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

Watson is better than anything else they had on their roster, that improves them. Still does not mean he is a franchise QB. Besides, Houston probably gets extra credit for their QB prowess. After all, the last QB they went after was a grand slam for them, so they get the benefit of the doubt here.

40-1 to 20-1?  Vegas is saying they found a franchise QB.  

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NoBowles

NoBowles

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

40-1 to 20-1?  Vegas is saying they found a franchise QB.  

Well, there you have it, I guess anyone questioning Watson as a franchise QB, was flat our wrong. I guess we all have to eat our crow now.

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