What You Can Get With the #2 Pick

[jgb]

7 hours ago, addage said:

So here are the QB selections in 1st Round for the last 5 years.  Sitting with the #2 pick, we have a lot of potential choices.

Year					QBR
2016	1		Goff	LAR	58.6
2018	1		Mayfield	Cle	71.2
2019	1		Murray	Ari	69.1
2020	1		Burrows	Cin	56
2016	2		Wentz	Phil	49.4
2017	2		Trubiskey	Chi	49.5 ('19)
2018	3		Darnold	NYJ	42.2
2020	5		Tagovailoa	Mia	63.5
2019	6		Jones	NYG	63.3
2020	6		Herbert	LAC	68.1
2018	7		Allen	Buf	81.6
2017	10		Mahomes	KC	82.7
2018	10		Rosen	Ari	NA
2017	12		Watson	Hou	71.6
2019	15		Haskins	Wa	NA
2016	26		Lynch	Den	NA
2020	26		Love	GB	NA
2018	32		Jackson	Bal	72.5

 

Seems to me the risk/reward isn't all that good.  Well over half these guys don't justify their selection.  Allen and Mayfield are playing on upper tier rosters.  What would they look like playing for the Jets?

If JD buys into one of this year's crop of "generational" talents, I'm ok with it.  But I would prefer a safer pick like Sewell or a trade down for more picks.

So since a lot of QBs bust, don’t draft a QB. Wow. Welcome back, Macc. 

[addage]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

So since a lot of QBs bust, don’t draft a QB. Wow. Welcome back, Macc. 

No one said don't draft a QB.  I presume you are please that JD took Morgan, a QB.

The question is: are any of the remaining QB's the "right" QB.  Or, rather than risk a swing and a miss with our roster in its current lamentable shape, do we postpone a QB search until next year.  Browns did this and it's worked for them.

If we trade down, we may have additional draft capital for next year allowing us to trade up to get a QB.  Or we could follow the draft a QB every year but not necessarily use the highest draft pick available.  Worked for the Pats and Seahawks.

The close your eyes and swing for the fences approach didn't work with Sanchez or Darnold.  It didn't work for Philly with Wentz.  It didn't work for LAR with Goff.  I hope you are seeing a pattern here.

[Lith]

7 minutes ago, addage said:

The question is: are any of the remaining QB's the "right" QB.  Or, rather than risk a swing and a miss with our roster in its current lamentable shape, do we postpone a QB search until next year.  Browns did this and it's worked for them.

Answer to this question, in my mind at least, is solely dependent on what JD thinks of Wilson/Fields or any of the other QBs in the draft.  If he thinks any of these guys have the potential to be a top 10 NFL QB for the next decade, take the QB.  If not, don't reach just because we need a QB.  Don't pass on a top prospect to give a guy on your roster another year or to keep upgrade other positions first, but you also don't reach for a QB just because you need one.

 

[jgb]

44 minutes ago, addage said:

No one said don't draft a QB.  I presume you are please that JD took Morgan, a QB.

The question is: are any of the remaining QB's the "right" QB.  Or, rather than risk a swing and a miss with our roster in its current lamentable shape, do we postpone a QB search until next year.  Browns did this and it's worked for them.

If we trade down, we may have additional draft capital for next year allowing us to trade up to get a QB.  Or we could follow the draft a QB every year but not necessarily use the highest draft pick available.  Worked for the Pats and Seahawks.

The close your eyes and swing for the fences approach didn't work with Sanchez or Darnold.  It didn't work for Philly with Wentz.  It didn't work for LAR with Goff.  I hope you are seeing a pattern here.

The pattern is that it’s incredibly difficult to project college QBs as pros. This is justification to draft more of them, not less.

[freestater]

OP titled the thread "what you can get with the second pick" and then proceeded to list a bunch of guys we cant get with the second pick. 

[bealeb319]

I think we have to swing for the fences. 
Yeah, most of these guys are overhyped and don't work out. The Jets know all about that. But we still need a good young QB if we are ever going to turn into a perennially good franchise. 
Draft a QB until you have a QB. 

You never have a good qb if you don't have an offensive line, wide receivers, a running game. The qbs who look good this year all have weapons and time to throw the ball. Sam might not be the answer for us but reaching for the next guy when you have nothing around him certainly is not either.

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[bealeb319]

Yup
I'm surprised at the amount of people who want to pass on a QB and trade down. If you don't like the QB's that's one thing but you have to consider the situation the Jets are in.
They need a QB (in my opinion), and there is no guarantee that the Jets will be picking this high again. It's easy to say "run it back with Sam for one more year and then if it doesn't work out, draft your QB next year". What if the next QB class has 2 guys who look like they might be good pros and the Jets are picking 10th? 
They are in a prime position to draft a QB now. They should pull the trigger unless they think everyone besides Lawrence isn't worth drafting in the 1st round.

This logic is flawed. If you believe the Jets need a qb and you believe that a team is only as good as their qb then you must believe the Jets will be drafting in the top 5 again without drafting a qb. Statistically qbs drafted outside of the top 5 have been just as good or better than the ones taken in the top 5 which means we have just as much chance of hitting on a guy in the later parts of round 1 as the early parts so why stay at pick two if you don't absolutely love a guy?

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[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

You never have a good qb if you don't have an offensive line, wide receivers, a running game. The qbs who look good this year all have weapons and time to throw the ball. Sam might not be the answer for us but reaching for the next guy when you have nothing around him certainly is not either.

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I don't buy the premise that young QBs can't look good with poor supporting casts (Herbert doesn't have a great supporting cast and Kyler Murray didn't have one last year, either). Both of those guys have shown the ability to really shine in some tough circumstances. 

I also don't entirely buy the premise that Darnold has been surrounded by "nothing." I believe that narrative is overblown. We have had a bad team around Darnold, but there's been a lot of throws that Sam simply hasn't made this year. He's been absurdly bad. 

[ScarletKnight89]

2 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

This logic is flawed. If you believe the Jets need a qb and you believe that a team is only as good as their qb then you must believe the Jets will be drafting in the top 5 again without drafting a qb. Statistically qbs drafted outside of the top 5 have been just as good or better than the ones taken in the top 5 which means we have just as much chance of hitting on a guy in the later parts of round 1 as the early parts so why stay at pick two if you don't absolutely love a guy?

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Well obviously if you are picking a QB at 2 it's because you think he is the real deal. I'm not advocating taking a QB just to take one. You have to believe in any player you draft.

One goal is to be able to avoid picking in the top 5 again next year. The best way to do that is to get a QB in here who this organization can build around.

[slimjasi]

9 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Well obviously if you are picking a QB at 2 it's because you think he is the real deal. I'm not advocating taking a QB just to take one. You have to believe in any player you draft.

One goal is to be able to avoid picking in the top 5 again next year. The best way to do that is to get a QB in here who this organization can build around.

It's interesting. 

I think the obsession with Trevor Lawrence has warped everyone's views of the other QBs in this draft. 

Lawrence is often put on the Elway, Manning, Luck QB prospect pedestal

Well, in Elway's draft there was Marino and Kelly (HOF)

In Manning's draft, there was Matt Hasselback (solid starter who went to a SB and should have won the game). 

In Luck's draft, there was Russell Wilson (Future HOF). 

All of these people who are suddenly acting like Lawrence was obviously the only QB worth taking in the top 10 are guessing just like everyone else. 

[ScarletKnight89]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It's interesting. 

I think the obsession with Trevor Lawrence has warped everyone's views of the other QBs in this draft. 

Lawrence is often put on the Elway, Manning, Luck QB prospect pedestal

Well, in Elway's draft there was Marino and Kelly (HOF)

In Manning's draft, there was Matt Hasselback (solid starter who went to a SB and should have won the game). 

In Luck's draft, there was Russell Wilson (Future HOF). 

All of these people who are suddenly acting like Lawrence was obviously the only QB worth taking in the top 10 are guessing just like everyone else. 

Agreed.

And I understand it to an extent. Lawrence looks like a generational talent. And we came close to being able to land him. I think the disappointment in not getting Lawrence has made many on here sour on all the other QB's coming out. But just because Lawrence will be gone when we pick, doesn't mean he is the only QB in this draft who has any shot of being any good.

This is widely considered to be a pretty good QB draft class. It's not just a 1 player draft.

[MichaelScott]

9 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

What can we get with the #2 overall pick?

The same thing that the Rams got #1 overall back in 1997 of 23 years ago; a generational O-Linenan (who should've been a Jet). 

Ever since D'Brickishaw retired we haven't had a Franchise OT.

And now with Becton already in place? We can have two Franchise Bookend OT's;

with Penei Sewell @ LT because not only is he generational but he's MUCH BETTER than Becton is in pass protection (who's allowed 6-7 sacks this year because he's built and plays more like a road grader). 

If not for Trevor Lawrence? Penei Sewell would become the hands down #1 overall draft pick. 

There it is!! That's the DWC Sewell post I was looking for! I guessed Munoz and you went Pace but otherwise, exactly what I was looking for ?

You're consistency is admirable, dude. 

[MichaelScott]

9 hours ago, slats said:

If JD and his new head coach love one of the QBs, I agree, they should just take him. 
 
If they don’t love one, but have two or three lumped together, they should trade down a little, add valuable picks, and select one of them there. 
 
If they just don’t like them, they should sign a legitimate starting QB to pair with Darnold in the last year of his rookie deal, and take the best offer they can get for the #2. 
 
Taking Sewell is a terrible idea, and they won’t do that. 

I agree with this completely and that's why I've got some confidence that JD will play this right with whatever he decides (Compared to Mac where you just knew he was going to screw it up). JD showed us his willingness to be patient and trade back for more picks 

[MichaelScott]

8 hours ago, KINGDIRK said:

You don’t think we can build a team with our own picks, Seattle’s picks, the pick that Darnold would net in a deal....the cap space we currently have. The additional cap space we will save the next 4 years with a rookie QB?

If you don’t love any of the Non TL QBs that’s one thing. But we can draft a QB at 2 AND build a team for all of the reasons stated above. 

Having any draft pick for Darnold this year was more likely when we were slated for the number 1 pick and TL. Imo I dont see a chance of trading Sam this offseason before drafting a QB. I also dont think that any QB besides TL makes Sam immediately expendable/tradeable. I'm not sure why people are counting on a pick for Darnold, I really don't see him going anywhere, especially since we arent picking #1. 

[greenwichjetfan]

21 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

They can and you sited good examples. If you look at the best QB's in the league I'll bet most of them were drafted into good situations.

Exactly. For every Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray (both of which had at least solid talent on offense to work with so the argument was in bad faith to begin with), there are 10 QBs who don't. 

[Jetsfan80]

If. Thats the issue. The answer is in how small or big of an IF JD puts on the QBs not named lawrence. Personally, I think the IFs are pretty big.

They’re always big if’s. Even Lawrence is a big if. That’s always going to be the case with QBs. Just have to do your research and make an educated guess. Because no one can guess how well a QB will process things at the pro level until they’re there.

None of that says avoid the QBs in this draft class or avoid QBs in general. If you like one, you have to take him, and keep taking QBs until you find one. This class is no different.

[Sonny Werblin]

34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

They’re always big if’s. Even Lawrence is a big if. That’s always going to be the case with QBs. Just have to do your research and make an educated guess. Because no one can guess how well a QB will process things at the pro level until they’re there.

None of that says avoid the QBs in this draft class or avoid QBs in general. If you like one, you have to take him, and keep taking QBs until you find one. This class is no different.

 

We just disagree on whether JD will like one.

[Dunnie]

but it's a fan's opinion (that's OK)... you don't spend a #2 pick on a QB you "kinda think might be good" just because you need one. I don't know where this "good QB class" notion is coming from, but Fields and Wilson do not make this a good class.
That's complete BS

If trevor , justin and zach turn out to be awesome... I guess it was a good QB class .. no?

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[BettyBoop]

I have no idea if Douglas will take a QB at #2.  None of us do.  I do know, however...Douglas will not take a QB for the sake of taking one.  He will not trade down for the sake of trading down.  He has a plan and he trusts that plan.  I do too.

[#27TheDominator]

16 hours ago, addage said:

No one said don't draft a QB.  I presume you are please that JD took Morgan, a QB.

The question is: are any of the remaining QB's the "right" QB.  Or, rather than risk a swing and a miss with our roster in its current lamentable shape, do we postpone a QB search until next year.  Browns did this and it's worked for them.

If we trade down, we may have additional draft capital for next year allowing us to trade up to get a QB.  Or we could follow the draft a QB every year but not necessarily use the highest draft pick available.  Worked for the Pats and Seahawks.

The close your eyes and swing for the fences approach didn't work with Sanchez or Darnold.  It didn't work for Philly with Wentz.  It didn't work for LAR with Goff.  I hope you are seeing a pattern here.

That's one way to look at it.  I don't think you have a single point that can't be argued.  It didn't work for the Eagles with Wentz?  They won the ******* super bowl.  What constitutes working in your mind?  The Rams made a super bowl with Goff.  Are you really seeing a pattern or making one up to support your narrative?  

Meanwhile, you think "it worked for the Browns?"  What exactly are you seeing?  Yes, they have 10 wins.  They are also in danger of missing an expanded playoffs.  You see some kind of impending dynasty in Cleveland?  I see a questionable team that is about to run into cap problems before their window even opens.  I kind of hate Mayfield, so maybe I am biased, but color me unimpressed.

Looking at the list in the OP, it is easy to see a bunch of busts and guys not worth their draft position.  It is just as easy to see that the best QB in each draft class is generally not the first one taken.

 

[addage]

15 hours ago, freestater said:

OP titled the thread "what you can get with the second pick" and then proceeded to list a bunch of guys we cant get with the second pick. 

The idea was to look at comparables.  Since the draft hasn't happened yet, we have to wait and see what is there when we pick.  Who knows, maybe Trevor will fall to us.  

[artemusclyde]

On 12/30/2020 at 12:57 PM, Paradis said:

but it's a fan's opinion (that's OK)... you don't spend a #2 pick on a QB you "kinda think might be good" just because you need one. I don't know where this "good QB class" notion is coming from, but Fields and Wilson do not make this a good class.

That's complete BS

What kind of BS is this, Fields has two bad games where in one of them half his team is out with COVID and suddenly he's not a great qb? You're also forgetting about Trey Lance, who's going to be a first rounder. He's basically discount Lawrence. This is a good qb class, just because not every other guy has Lawrence hype doesn't mean it isn't good. It's honestly getting annoying with the Lawrence hype, last year Lawrence had some bad games, against teams worse then what Fields was playing and Fields has two bad games and suddenly he's not worth picking over Darnold? Sh*t is overblown. Last year PFF was coming out with articles about drafting Fields over Lawrence, now that he has a bit of sophomore slump like Lawrence did everyone is doubting the kid. Absolutely unreal.

[Paradis]

21 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

What kind of BS is this, Fields has two bad games where in one of them half his team is out with COVID and suddenly he's not a great qb? You're also forgetting about Trey Lance, who's going to be a first rounder. He's basically discount Lawrence. This is a good qb class, just because not every other guy has Lawrence hype doesn't mean it isn't good. It's honestly getting annoying with the Lawrence hype, last year Lawrence had some bad games, against teams worse then what Fields was playing and Fields has two bad games and suddenly he's not worth picking over Darnold? Sh*t is overblown. Last year PFF was coming out with articles about drafting Fields over Lawrence, now that he has a bit of sophomore slump like Lawrence did everyone is doubting the kid. Absolutely unreal.

the term "good QB class" is relative i suppose - but this is average. For real. There was 1 stud, and another potential blue chip QB in Fields who fell of the wagon down the stretch. That' happened. Maybe he can work himself back into that conversation... Wilson? Please. Lance is intriguing but you need more than 1 blue chip QB prospect to be like - WOW!! Look at all these choices. 

[artemusclyde]

57 minutes ago, Paradis said:

the term "good QB class" is relative i suppose - but this is average. For real. There was 1 stud, and another potential blue chip QB in Fields who fell of the wagon down the stretch. That' happened. Maybe he can work himself back into that conversation... Wilson? Please. Lance is intriguing but you need more than 1 blue chip QB prospect to be like - WOW!! Look at all these choices. 

Wilson is very comparable to Baker Mayfield who went #1 in the draft. This is a better class then 2018s class which was considered to be a great qb class at the time.

[Paradis]

3 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

Wilson is very comparable to Baker Mayfield who went #1 in the draft. This is a better class then 2018s class which was considered to be a great qb class at the time.

No it's not, that's ridiculous.  You just killed the interest in carrying this conversation further. 

[HawkeyeJet]

If we absolutely have to take an OL Rd 1 I'd rather trade back and take Slater and get more picks then draft Sewell at 2.

[artemusclyde]

16 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No it's not, that's ridiculous.  You just killed the interest in carrying this conversation further. 

Except it is, Lawrence is better then everyone in that class. Wilson is a bigger more talented version of Baker. Fields even if he continues tanking his value still goes over Rosen, Allen, etc. If he plays like he was playing before Northwestern and Indiana he gets drafted before everyone that year. Fields before those games was generating discussion about going over Lawrence. Hell Lance has a shot of getting taken before Allen considering Allen had major accuracy concerns. He also goes above Rosen. This is a good qb class, you just fell in love with Lawrence and are butthurt we missed out on him causing you to be negative about the rest of the class. Either that or you're one of the idiots that still believes in Darnold and you're right this conversation isn't worth having.

[Jetsfan80]

We just disagree on whether JD will like one.

And there’s really no way of knowing this right now, either way. Hopefully we’ll get more clarity on that fairly quickly in the pre-draft process so we’re not all left guessing.

[Torus34]

Seems to me that the companion question to the topic query is, "What single position is most in need of a replacement?"

 

Go, Jets!

[jgb]

On 12/31/2020 at 4:07 AM, bealeb319 said:

You never have a good qb if you don't have an offensive line, wide receivers, a running game. The qbs who look good this year all have weapons and time to throw the ball. Sam might not be the answer for us but reaching for the next guy when you have nothing around him certainly is not either.

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Getz dem weapoinz and you can throw any dern fool behind center!

[Philc1]

20 hours ago, Dunnie said:

If trevor , justin and zach turn out to be awesome... I guess it was a good QB class .. no?

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It’s not. Lawrence is the only franchise QB in this draft

[RVAJet815]

38 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

It’s not. Lawrence is the only franchise QB in this draft

Says who? If JD disagrees, and likes one of the other QBs, are you going to tell him he’s wrong? In that case, it’s Honestly malpractice NOT to take a QB.

[Butterfield]

Trade down.

Then trade down again.

And again.

If its available, you should always trade down and accumulate picks.  Diversify risk / reward.  Unless you think you are one player away, if a good offer is there, you take it.  

For the Jets, this year, this should be especially true.  They need multiple players everywhere.

[Jetsfan80]

Getz dem weapoinz and you can throw any dern fool behind center!

All QBs are the same. Sam Darnold is Pat Mahomes. It’s so clear when you watch them play. Damn you Denzel Mims for not making that show up in the stat sheet and win column!

[Philc1]

4 hours ago, RVAJet815 said:

Says who? If JD disagrees, and likes one of the other QBs, are you going to tell him he’s wrong? In that case, it’s Honestly malpractice NOT to take a QB.

Fields is Geno with more hype