The Jets Need to Extend Darnold

[Doggin94it]

No, I'm not crazy. Yes, by the end of this post I think you'll agree with me.

Let's start with Darnold's current situation. 

For 2021, the Jets will be paying Darnold $4,774,685 in cash; he has a 10M cap hit but the difference is in his prorated signing bonus. They need to decide by May 3 whether they're going to exercise his 5th year option, which is currently slated to cost roughly $25M; it's highly unlikely the Jets will exercise it, as things stand (the salary isn't guaranteed for skill, but it's guaranteed for injury; if they exercise it, Darnold sucks and picks up an injury, they'll be on the hook for the whole amount).

In other words: Darnold has relatively little cash coming in this year (opportunity for the Jets) and a wide range of outcomes (opportunity for both). If the Jets end up starting him this year and he does well, he'll end up earning 25M or more per year on a long term deal. If they start him and he plays poorly, he'll be lucky to get a mid-sized backup QB contract on a 1 year deal, in the 3-5MAPY range. If they trade him, or bring in another QB and keep him as a backup, he's likely looking at something similar.

What might an extension look like?

OK, after this section I'll get into why a deal like this would make sense from the perspective of both parties, but to really understand that, you need to figure out what a deal could reasonably be expected to look like:

How about a 4-year, $84M extension, at 21M per year. For context, that would make Sam the 20th-highest paid QB in the NFL, this year, tied with Teddy Bridgewater. That's probably where he'll stay after all is said and done next year; Rivers, Brisset, and Jimmy G will likely come off that list, while Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will likely get big-dollar extensions this offseason. Here's the key: while the new money kicks in for the 2022 season, you give Sam a 16M signing bonus and no guaranteed salary beyond that, and convert his current guaranteed roster bonus (roughly 3.5M) to guaranteed 2021 salary. So you have salaries of 17M/yr in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and his cap hit goes up by only 3.2M in 2021. And you agree that his 2022 and 2023 salaries become fully guaranteed if he's on the team by a designated date in 2022 - say the day after the start of the league year.

Why does this work for Sam?

A deal like this might appeal to Darnold and his agent because it locks in a big-money payment right now that Sam may never otherwise get access to; if he signs this deal, starts, and is terrible, he gets 16M in cash for this year and then gets cut before his extension kicks in; if he turns it down and that happens, he'll never see anything like that kind of guaranteed money again. Meanwhile, the downside risk to Darnold on a deal like this is actually pretty minimal. The middle of the QB market right now - the No. 11-20 contracts ranges from 21M (Bridgewater) to 29.5M (Tannehill). Yes, markets inflate, but there's going to be some contraction with the Covid economics and a reasonable positive outcome for Darnold - what a "good year" might look like, meaning a jump to league average or slightly better next year - would probably net him a deal in the 25M/year range. So net-net, his downside is he gives up about 4M per year to lock in a 16M signing bonus right now - and it's a short enough deal that he can cash in again as a relatively young veteran in 4 years.  (Of course, if Sam goes out of his mind and plays like an elite QB, he's giving up way more than that. But that's not a realistic probability he or his agent should be counting on). And with the subsequent guarantee, if he does well this year, he ends up with 2 years of fully guaranteed salary; if he doesn't, he's released early in the FA process. Bottom line, the upside (that signing bonus) seems worth the downside risk.

Does that mean this is a structure Sam would leap at, and definitely agree to? Of course not. But it would at least force him to make a decision; it's a reasonable offer he might (maybe should) take.

Why does this work for the Jets?

OK, but why should the Jets want to do this? Because it gives them the most important thing right now: options. Right now, the Jets have 3 or 4 possible futures at QB, depending on how you count them: 

(1) Run it back with Sam, see what happens

(2) Trade for Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford, trade Sam

(3/4) Draft a rookie QB, and either trade Sam or keep him as competition.

There isn't a scenario from those 4 where the Jets aren't meaningfully better off having extended Sam. Obviously, if they run it back with Sam, or keep him to compete with a rookie, the extension helps. If Sam develops, you have him signed long-term at a relative discount, congrats. If he doesn't, you cut him after 2021, and all it cost you was money and the 12.8M dead money hit in 2022. But with a rookie QB on a rookie deal, you can absorb that cap hit.

How about if they trade Sam? If they trade Sam, the extension increases his value to the acquiring team substantially. Now the acquiring team gets Sam for just the 4.7M in 2020 cash, and if Sam pans out for them, they have him on a team-friendly deal with cap hits at 17M/year for four years; if he doesn't, no harm, no foul, they can cut him at no loss. So whether it's after trading for a veteran or drafting a rookie, extending Sam probably brings the Jets back more in value than they'd get for him on his current contract, where the acquiring team will have to sign Sam to a big money deal if all goes well. And the only cost to the Jets is another 11.3M in extra dead cap from trading him (as currently structured, Sam counts 9.8M on the cap. With this deal, he would count 21M if traded - 16M in accelerated signing bonus from the extension, plus the 5M in signing bonus proration from his first deal).  

Bottom line, the only thing an extension would cost the Jets is cap space, which they have enough of, and it would put them in a better strategic position moving forward. It's the right move

 

[The Crusher]

Vote Kivam

[jetscrazey]

The Jets need to move on from Darnold.  Any other opinion suggests you didn't watch the games this year.

[Sammybighead]

Is it ok to wait until the end of this year to extend him or not? Thanks.

[ScarletKnight89]

The Jets need to draft a QB at pick 2. 

[joewilly12]

[Averagejetsfan1421]

4 minutes ago, jetscrazey said:

The Jets need to move on from Darnold.  Any other opinion suggests you didn't watch the games this year.

I dont see how you can point all the blame on him, I mean really look at who his offensive genius of a coach was, look at who he was throwing the ball too and look who was protecting him,  no quarterback in NFL would succeed at all 

[fusionCA]

This is a joke , right?

 

[Guilhermezmc]

Imagine being the worst employee at your position in the whole company and get a 21m year 

[TommyT]

No, what we need to do is ban Doggin94it from ever starting a thread.

[Bronx]

6 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Imagine being the worst employee at your position in the whole company and get a 21m year 

He is not the worst QB in the league. He is a bottom tier riser.

[RedBeardedSavage]

From a strictly financial standpoint, @Doggin94it makes a compelling argument, especially from the Jets position (all this assuming we struck out trading for Watson).

But if I were Sam? I don't know. I think I might refuse that and take a chance on next year. Without getting into the specifics, the Jets will add talent on his side of the ball this offseason - hopefully a lot. And the offensive system being installed this year is an ideal fit for Darnold. 

I think I'd roll the dice if I were him.  

[joewilly12]

Just now, Bronx said:

He is not the worst QB in the league. He is a bottom tier riser.

Statistically speaking he ranked lower than some of the QB's teams dragged off the street that we never heard of. 

[UntouchableCrew]

The responses in this thread are interesting because it becomes very clear very quickly who reads and who doesn't.

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

The responses in this thread are interesting because it becomes very clear very quickly who reads and who doesn't.

The Jets Need to Extend Darnold

[Jet2020]

Lol what? You wanna guarantee Darnold 3 years worth of salaries? That too at a $21mil average? Why is Darnold worth the 20th QB when he had a year worth around the 32nd QB? He’ll be lucky to pocket even half that with minimal guarantees. 

[Biggs]

The only reason to sign Sam to a long term deal is you think he's going to be great.  If Sam doesn't think he's going to be great and is willing to sign for second tier money, I would be inclined to believe him.  

I would rather keep him let him prove he's fantastic and if he won't sign a mega deal after proving it franchise him.

We have the 2nd pick in the draft.  You can't bet on Sam by going half in.  He's either our guy or he isn't.  This is why Douglas and Saleh are getting paid.  If they really believe in him go for the 5th year option.  This is what our GM and HC is getting paid for.  Saleh didn't say put the car in second gear with one foot on the gas and one on the brake.  

[UntouchableCrew]

2 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

The Jets Need to Extend Darnold

Right -- read his write up. He explains why even if you are shipping Darnold out of town their are benefits to having him on a reasonable contract the other team can walk away from. It increases his trade value.

[kelly]

.. Not yet "

[UntouchableCrew]

10 minutes ago, Jet2020 said:

Lol what? You wanna guarantee Darnold 3 years worth of salaries? That too at a $21mil average? Why is Darnold worth the 20th QB when he had a year worth around the 32nd QB? He’ll be lucky to pocket even half that with minimal guarantees. 

No, he doesn't. He said the 2022 and 2023 contracts are only guaranteed if Sam is on the roster -- you can cut him and walk away clean after one year.

You're essentially giving him a $16mm signing bonus in order to maximize his value for a trade or have him under contract for cheap if you roll with him and he works out.

You're "buying" flexibility.

[oatmeal]

5 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Right -- read his write up. He explains why even if you are shipping Darnold out of town their are benefits to having him on a reasonable contract the other team can walk away from. It increases his trade value.

For Christ sakes this is legitimately the worst starting QB in the NFL. 

[Warfish]

34 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I'm not crazy.

[Doggin94it]

18 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

The responses in this thread are interesting because it becomes very clear very quickly who reads and who doesn't.

[Beaver]

[Biggs]

10 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Right -- read his write up. He explains why even if you are shipping Darnold out of town their are benefits to having him on a reasonable contract the other team can walk away from. It increases his trade value.

If Sam and his agent believe Sam Darnold is an elite NFL starting QB why would they give the Jets the ability to tie him up with an open trade clause for 16 million?  If he believes in himself even a little bit he would tell them to pound salt.  

[Warfish]

I was going to write a lengthy serious answer, then I accidentally hit something, changed the webpage, and lost my draft reply 

Not rewriting that all over, so suffice to say, I disagree that Darnold should be resigned, and I have well thought out reasons for that view.  Sorry Doggin, I'm disappointed you didn't get to read it tbqh.

[56mehl56]

25 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

From a strictly financial standpoint, @Doggin94it makes a compelling argument, especially from the Jets position (all this assuming we struck out trading for Watson).

But if I were Sam? I don't know. I think I might refuse that and take a chance on next year. Without getting into the specifics, the Jets will add talent on his side of the ball this offseason - hopefully a lot. And the offensive system being installed this year is an ideal fit for Darnold. 

I think I'd roll the dice if I were him.  

BTW like the new avatar , would love the Jets to draft Owusu-Koromoah

[JetBlue]

No they don't. 

[JetBlue]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I was going to write a lengthy serious answer, then I accidentally hit something, changed the webpage, and lost my draft reply 

Not rewriting that all over, so suffice to say, I disagree that Darnold should be resigned, and I have well thought out reasons for that view.  

Believe me we don't need a whole lot of reasons for not wanting to extend Sam at this point. 

[Charlie Brown]

Why in the world would you extend  poorly perfroming QB?????

Better to trade down and then draft QB Trey Lance.....

But no you DO NOT EXTEND SAM DARNOLD

[Doggin94it]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I was going to write a lengthy serious answer, then I accidentally hit something, changed the webpage, and lost my draft reply 

Not rewriting that all over, so suffice to say, I disagree that Darnold should be resigned, and I have well thought out reasons for that view.  Sorry Doggin, I'm disappointed you didn't get to read it tbqh.

Ha, me too. 

Honestly, it's been fun watching people lose their mind at the thread title

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

BTW like the new avatar , would love the Jets to draft Owusu-Koromoah

Appreciate it. I don't wanna derail the thread, but just quickly I'll say the dude reminds me of the Honey Badger but at LB: an undersized but ridiculously athletic defender that plays fast and violent.

I don't know if the value lines up for us at any pick, but I think if you're a fan of the sport, you've got to enjoy watching him play. 

[Doggin94it]

Just now, Charlie Brown said:

Why in the world would you extend  poorly perfroming QB?????

Better to trade down and then draft QB Trey Lance.....

But no you DO NOT EXTEND SAM DARNOLD

It's almost as though the answer is in the initial post. Under the section headed "Why does this work for the Jets?"

Have you considered reading it?

[56mehl56]

3 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Appreciate it. I don't wanna derail the thread, but just quickly I'll say the dude reminds me of the Honey Badger but at LB: an undersized but ridiculously athletic defender that plays fast and violent.

I don't know if the value lines up for us at any pick, but I think if you're a fan of the sport, you've got to enjoy watching him play. 

Last post off topic I promise. If he falls to 23 I'd jump on him or Zaven Collins, I do also like Horn 

[Bronx]

32 minutes ago, Jet2020 said:

Lol what? You wanna guarantee Darnold 3 years worth of salaries? That too at a $21mil average? Why is Darnold worth the 20th QB when he had a year worth around the 32nd QB? He’ll be lucky to pocket even half that with minimal guarantees. 

Maybe at 15m x year with incentives.