Rookie QB Stats Through 10 Games (2009 - 21)

[Lith]

Presented without comment.

Last week I shared rookie QB stats through 9 games in one of the Zach threads.  I updated it through yesterday's games.  38 QBs who have started at least 10 games as rookies -- I included Fields who has only started 9 games, since his 10th will come tonight.  Zach's ranks:

• Completion %: 28th
• TD % 35th
• Int % 25th
• QB Rating: 31st
• Yards per Attempt: 29th

Other guys in bottom 10 (by QB rating) with Zach: Rosen, Darnold, Geno, Allen, Gabbert, Clausen, Sanchez, Stafford, Kizer.  Link to google spreadsheet with stats for all 38 QBs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RwxXszOnkUA5tQUlXAthLWJ-9fMnSlg7mmabB0zHczc/edit?usp=sharing

 

[GangGreened]

So this means he’s bad??

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

It's somewhat disconcerting, but there are some bad QBs above him and some good ones below him.  I'm not sure what this means at the end of the day.

[JetFreak89]

While this certainly looks bad for Zach, it also proves my point about Josh Allen as there are posters here who swear he never looked as bad as Zach despite having less yards, a lower completion percentage and the same amount of INT's on way less pass attempts. Again, I'm not expecting Zach to make a similar jump as Allen did but for those who say he is the absolute worst rookie QB ever and has 0% chance of turning things around, that simply isn't true. 

[Saul Goodman]

These stats support what I’m seeing. Zach is only a rookie but he’s among the worst I’ve ever seen. I’m very skeptical that he could become a franchise QB. He still has three games this year though, before the team evaluates the position and develops a plan for next season (which Zach will obviously be part of). 

[ryu79]

3 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

It's somewhat disconcerting, but there are some bad QBs above him and some good ones below him.  I'm not sure what this means at the end of the day.

Think it indicates that sample size is too small to be predictive, but the sample so far is concerning directionally. 

[JetFreak89]

5 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

It's somewhat disconcerting, but there are some bad QBs above him and some good ones below him.  I'm not sure what this means at the end of the day.

It honestly means next to nothing because it means there is a low chance of Zach turning into a franchise QB but the chances that any rookie QB turn out good to begin with aren't very high. It also takes nothing into account for the players around him. 

For instance, this is sorted based on QB Rating and a big piece of the equation is completion percentage. Zach completed 56.5% of his passes yesterday but there were 3 blatant drops which would have changed it to 69.5% if they had been caught. We all know there were a number of drops in the previous game as well. 

Bottom line - Zach isn't play well and probably won't succeed long-term but he also doesn't have playmakers around him. He certainly doesn't have a Calvin Johnson like Matt Stafford did his rookie year so he would likely be rated a few slots higher had he been drafted by a better team.  

[UntouchableCrew]

So basically he's been terrible and he'd have to be a huge outlier like Allen and Stafford (who had immense physical gifts and two of the strongest arms ever) to pan out.

[kevinc855]

Don’t let a statistic get in the way of a reality now

waiting for the excuse makers to show 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, kevinc855 said:

Don’t let a statistic get in the way of a reality now

waiting for the excuse makers to show 

Yawn. 
 

Here.  Zach will be good.  

[jgb]

32 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

It's somewhat disconcerting, but there are some bad QBs above him and some good ones below him.  I'm not sure what this means at the end of the day.

It may not have a high-level of confidence, but it's a helluva lot more predictive than us Jets fans' hopes.

[Irish Jet]

Stafford was 2009. Different sport.

Allen has been pretty much the biggest outlier the sport has seen according to FootballOutsiders. By just about any analytical metric he should have sucked and he broke every predictive model they had.

That said he was a physical specimen which was what was appealing about him as a prospect. Pretty much the prototype in terms of size/strength/speed that you’d want from a modern QB. He had 600+ rushing yards and 8 rushing TD’s so even his rookie year far exceeds Zach based on performance.

There’s nothing encouraging here.

[Anthony Jet]

38 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

So this means he’s bad??

It’s means he’s Matt Stafford

[Hal N of Provo]

2 plays can say a lot.  He also played OK.  

[Anthony Jet]

12 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Don’t let a statistic get in the way of a reality now

waiting for the excuse makers to show 

I noticed you do a lot of waiting 

[jgb]

Just now, Anthony Jet said:

I noticed you do a lot of waiting 

Yes, he does. But it's not so bad when you're 100% sure the bus will come.

[Anthony Jet]

Just now, jgb said:

Yes, he does. But it's not so bad when you're 100% sure the bus will come.

More of a go getter type myself. 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Yes, he does. But it's not so bad when you're 100% sure the bus will come.

Yeah unlike the unreliable Zach Haters.  You never know if those guys are going to show.  It’s totally different! 

[HawkeyeJet]

So it clear Wilson has not put it together at this point.  Some have zero hope, some have lots, some are in the middle.

A question I am curious for anyone who wants to answer is this:

If Zach turns out to be as productive as Quarterback X, I will be satisfied with his development and the pick.

My Quarterback X in that I think is like Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins.  Tony Romo but that is a no brained probably.  Jake Plummer, but that’s probably a disappointment.

[Anthony Jet]

9 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So it clear Wilson has not put it together at this point.  Some have zero hope, some have lots, some are in the middle.

A question I am curious for anyone who wants to answer is this:

If Zach turns out to be as productive as Quarterback X, I will be satisfied with his development and the pick.

My Quarterback X in that I think is like Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins.  Tony Romo but that is a no brained probably.  Jake Plummer, but that’s probably a disappointment.

I would hope for better than dalton or cousins. Both of whom I wouldn’t of minded having as the QB of the Jets. But to use the 2nd pick in the draft I’d like to see a notch above that 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Yeah unlike the unreliable Zach Haters.  You never know if those guys are going to show.  It’s totally different! 

Sometimes being right has to be it's own reward, Helen. I've made my peace with it.

[sec101row23]

With each game there is another data point to evaluate Zach.   Based on eye test, stats and comparisons of other rookie QBs historically, Zach has been consistently underachieving.   You can point to some quarters or half’s of games where he showed promise but not nearly enough.  The Jets are stuck with him for next year, I just hope the leash is short and they don’t waste another year on this experiment.  

[HawkeyeJet]

Just now, Anthony Jet said:

I would hope for better than dalton or cousins. Both of whom I wouldn’t of minded having as a whole of the Jets. But to use the 2nd pick in the draft I’d like to see a notch above that 

I imagine most will be in line with this.  Nothing wrong with that.  

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Sometimes being right has to be it's own reward, Helen. I've made my peace with it.

It must be very rewarding.  
 

You are standing in a glass house dunking on Zach supporters for posting frequently and reliably lol. 

[jgb]

44 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So it clear Wilson has not put it together at this point.  Some have zero hope, some have lots, some are in the middle.

A question I am curious for anyone who wants to answer is this:

If Zach turns out to be as productive as Quarterback X, I will be satisfied with his development and the pick.

My Quarterback X in that I think is like Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins.  Tony Romo but that is a no brained probably.  Jake Plummer, but that’s probably a disappointment.

It's a good question. The minimum I'd consider Zach Wilson a "hit" based on his draft position is probably somewhere around Kirk Cousins, who by the way is a lot better than Dalton. Or were you setting a lower and upper bound by naming both?

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

It must be very rewarding.  
 

You are standing in a glass house dunking on Zach supporters for posting frequently and reliably lol. 

I said "has to be its own reward" because magical thinking will not affect the fortunes of the Jets in any way.

I'd prefer the Jets to be good but objective truth has value in all contexts.

[WowOhWow]

thanks for this info.  really interesting to look at it this way.  is there any data on the first 10 games of players that sat their rookie years and then played year 2?  

[ZachEY]

So, a 22% chance he's not a bust?

[jgb]

16 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

More of a go getter type myself. 

Please will Zach into greatness for us, then.

[GreenFish]

The Jets have a high representation of bust on that list. It’s not looking good for  Zach. I trust our offensive coaches more than i have in the past. So, i’ll run with that. 

[The Crusher]

11 minutes ago, jgb said:

Sometimes being right has to be it's own reward, Helen. I've made my peace with it.

Wut?

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

So, a 22% chance he's not a bust?

You're such a hater EY. Plainly Zach is an exception because we all want him to be.

 

 

[Lith]

6 minutes ago, WowOhWow said:

thanks for this info.  really interesting to look at it this way.  is there any data on the first 10 games of players that sat their rookie years and then played year 2?  

Its a little harder to pull - but its a slow day at work.  I will see what I can come up with.

[ultraJETfan]

16 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

2 plays can say a lot.  He also played OK.  

After Saints game I had given up on him. But he made multiple plays like this yesterday that made me say WOW he might actually put it all together eventually. But then the 2nd half was a complete disaster and I'm not football savvy enough to know who the blame falls on. Because there was about 5 pass plays that were over before he snapped the ball. Literally 0 chance. I don't know if that was Zach"s fault or the OC, the line, the blockers, the scheme, brilliant defense.

General consensus is that Miami has a good defense. Safe to say the Jaguars do not. If he struggles mightily against the Jags then that will be another sign that he is another doomed rookie QB that will be a backup in a couple years. He really really needs to ball out on Sunday. Might be the biggest game of his young career.

[munchmemory]

Four past and present Jet QBs in the top 10.   (Pause for reflection and taking of SSRI medication)  Four.  Now let's hear all the rah-rah folks.  What a crap fest.