Zach Wilson Thru the Denver Game (YtY Change in Passing Production Rankings)

[Lith]

13 minutes ago, Pac said:

Despite leading the league in pirouettes, Zap has been a disappointment.  

I'm fearful that if Belichick had Sam seeing ghosts he may have Zippy talking to them.

He will get the rest of this year and all of next so all we can do is hope for improvement.

I am not so sure he gets next year too.  At least if he keeps playing at this level.  If the next ten are significantly better than the last 4, then yes, he gets next year.  But if he continues to play like a bottom 5 NFL QB, I think they at least bring in a vet to compete next year.  Hopefully he shuts us all up over the next 2 1/2 months, but I am not optimistic right now.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, SoFlaJets said:

I'm still looking for someone to give me the answer to the "When was the last time a QB on a 3 game win streak has not thrown for a TD in any of those games?

 

[greenwichjetfan]

51 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Zach Wilson in 2022 thru week 7 is currently ranked:

• 32nd in Completion Percentage (57.4%).  He was ranked 31st in 2021 (55.6%).
• 34th in TD Pass Percentage (1.0%)..  He was ranked 29th in 2021 (2.3%).
• 17th in INT Pass Percentage (2.0%).  He was ranked 29th in 2021 (2.9%).
• 23rd in Sack Percentage (7.3%).  He was ranked 32nd in 2021 (10.3%).
• 19th in Yards Per Attempt (6.9 YPA).  He was ranked 20th in 2021 (6.1 YPA).
• 28th in Yards Per Game (173.3 YPG).  He was ranked 30th in 2021 (179.5 YPG).
• 31st in QB Rating (73.6).  He was ranked 31st in 2021 (69.7).

And of course, team record when starting, he was 3-10 in 2021, he is 4-0 this year.

So we see so far this year a ~2% increase in completion percentage, drops in both Pass TD rate and INT rate, a drop in how often he is sacked, an increase in yards per pass attempt, but a slight drop in total passing yards per game. 

Ultimately this results in a slightly higher QB rating (Note, not QBR, but the old QB Rating metric).

 

Great work. I've taken the liberty of color coding them based on progress or regress.

As we can see, this is a continuation of what we saw in Q4 last year:

- As evidenced by his attempts and attempt-based-metrics, the offense is being designed to limit his exposure knowing that he's nowhere near where he needs to be in terms of taking steps towards being a FQB.

- As evidenced by his TD% and YPG, when his number is called and he's asked to make throws, he's simply not producing. He's not hitting open guys, his ball placement is bad, and he's struggling to take his shots. 

- As evidenced by his INT% and Sack%, he's done a solid a job of reducing the negative plays, although I do wonder if that's also what's holding him back from better positive production. 

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Why is Josh Allen the exemplar we should look at?  

Is Zach alot like Josh Allen?  Are there many similarities between him and Allen, skills wise, body wise, gameplay wise, that make such a comparison valid and worthwhile?  

Or is Allen just the new Peyton Manning, the oft- cited exception to the rule that people will cling to in hopes a poorly playing QB will eventually improve despite the odds?

For example, why isn't Sam Darnold the better comparison?  Wilson is more like Darnold than he is like Allen.  Why should we think Wilson will improve the way Allen did, and not decline/stay low producing the way Darnold has?

It feels very much like "have faith, Josh Allen sucked too" isn't really an actual analysis that warrants hope in Wilson's future.  It's just faith and hope without actual justification to support it.

If all you want to hear is "yes, there is a chance, because Allen" I agree.  There is a chance.  Beyond that, I don't see much value in that comparison.

 

Josh Allen is a world class athlete. He's tall, strong and fast 

Zach is a below average athlete. He's thin, weak and small. 

Zach has a good arm. Allen has the strongest arm in the league 

The only comparison is that they both faced a lot of mountain west in college. 

 

[greenwichjetfan]

19 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

You're thinking too small.

Think another handsome veteran QB on the last year of his contract... 

Sam the man Darnold?!??!!!?!??!??!?!?!!?!!???!?!?!?!?!?!?!???

[BigRy56]

The dude has a ton of work to do and nobody can expose a team's weakness like Belichick. Huge test coming up for Zach Wilson - play well and get a W on Sunday and he'll be alright

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, SoFlaJets said:

I'm still looking for someone to give me the answer to the "When was the last time a QB on a 3 game win streak has not thrown for a TD in any of those games?

Trent Dilfer

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Zach Wilson in 2022 thru week 7 is currently ranked:

• 32nd in Completion Percentage (57.4%).  He was ranked 31st in 2021 (55.6%).
• 34th in TD Pass Percentage (1.0%)..  He was ranked 29th in 2021 (2.3%).
• 17th in INT Pass Percentage (2.0%).  He was ranked 29th in 2021 (2.9%).
• 23rd in Sack Percentage (7.3%).  He was ranked 32nd in 2021 (10.3%).
• 19th in Yards Per Attempt (6.9 YPA).  He was ranked 20th in 2021 (6.1 YPA).
• 28th in Yards Per Game (173.3 YPG).  He was ranked 30th in 2021 (179.5 YPG).
• 31st in QB Rating (73.6).  He was ranked 31st in 2021 (69.7).

And of course, team record when starting, he was 3-10 in 2021, he is 4-0 this year.

So we see so far this year a ~2% increase in completion percentage, drops in both Pass TD rate and INT rate, a drop in how often he is sacked, an increase in yards per pass attempt, but a slight drop in total passing yards per game. 

Ultimately this results in a slightly higher QB rating (Note, not QBR, but the old QB Rating metric).

 

 

[football guy]

50 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Any reason why LaFleur wouldn't try a few deep shots?  He's got the speed, and if Mims is playing he has the size.  With Zach's +arm, why not air out a couple?  Maybe it hits, maybe it produces a DPI.

Really think it was matchup driven. I was hoping they'd take us by surprise and call a play-action bomb, but yesterdays game plan was clearly ultra-conservative due to their respect for the Denver defense as Saleh said in his press conference

[football guy]

20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Josh Allen is a world class athlete. He's tall, strong and fast 

Zach is a below average athlete. He's thin, weak and small. 

Zach has a good arm. Allen has the strongest arm in the league 

The only comparison is that they both faced a lot of mountain west in college. 

 

This is an alarmingly bad take.

[football guy]

1 hour ago, RevisIsland610 said:

Those stats are ugly and show very little improvement from last year. There is no excuse when you have a much better supporting cast this year. He's just not very good and people hoping that he is going to take this giant leap are going to be disappointed. He has 10 games to show something or this team will have to draft another QB at some point in next years draft. 

This is why stats need to be evaluated in context though. Remove the stats from the equation and just the tape play-to-play. He's night and day better this year than he was last year and I don't think its very close

[Fantasy Island]

I think Zach is improving , it's just taking longer than expected.

Is that better, @Reasonable Jets Fan ?

 

[bitonti]

22 minutes ago, football guy said:

This is an alarmingly bad take.

Josh Allen if you see him in real life is like a giant 

Zach wilson if you see him in real life is like my ups delivery guy 

[kdels62]

40 minutes ago, football guy said:

This is why stats need to be evaluated in context though. Remove the stats from the equation and just the tape play-to-play. He's night and day better this year than he was last year and I don't think its very close

Definitely not against the Broncos. He was an absolute mess.

[UntouchableCrew]

It’s pretty simple — he’s terrible and the offense is at its best when we minimize his contributions.

Focus on the running game, end arounds, getting to playmakers in space and trick plays/clever play design.

When you ask him to drop back and pass it’s usually a bad result.

The best thing he’s done over the last few weeks is not turn it over because the defense has been great and Breece is carrying the offense. Without Breece I worry.

[jgb]

Horrendous

[Lith]

This is a scary stat.  He is good when the pocket is clean, but just awful when pressured.  Obviously he would be better if the OL plays better and gives him more time.  But in the NFL, messy pockets are a reality and making plays when pressured is part of being a good QB.  

We have all seen the escapability, but I cannot recall him making plays after escaping the pocket, aside from maybe the occasional scramble.  

[Green Ghost]

1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

You're thinking too small.

Think another handsome veteran QB on the last year of his contract... 

Baker Mayfield?

[football guy]

20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Josh Allen if you see him in real life is like a giant 

Zach wilson if you see him in real life is like my ups delivery guy 

No doubt Josh Allen is a bigger and stronger athlete, but to say that Zach Wilson is a "below average athlete" is moronic. He's a freak athlete and by no means is "small"

• Avg starting QB: 6'2 3/4", 220.7 lb.
• Zach WIlson: 6'2 1/8", 221 lb. 

Criticize Zach Wilson for his play, criticize him for having a baby face, but the Zach Wilson hate by some on this board borders on the line of insanity lol. I get that fans get emotional with their opinions/perspectives, but the amount of guys on here literally making up alternative realities to support their own opinions has reached a mindboggling level

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, BallinPB said:

I don't think it needs to be stated anymore that his production is terrible.  I'm just hoping for a miracle turn around at this point.  

To some here it still does, sadly.  

Even when it comes to avoiding picks (his best quality this year), he's still middle of the pack in INT %.  

[Green Ghost]

1 hour ago, 56mehl56 said:

Just curious which stat line would Jets fans prefered from yesterday's games:

32-of-44 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions 

16-of-26 passes for 121 yards, zero touchdown, and zero interceptions 

 

Why would we want either one of those?
Is asking us to choose between taking Zach’s performance and another poor one the best defense you can think of for him?

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, August said:

Zach doesn’t get the “he has no weapons” excuse either. 

Especially since its clear in the numbers that Zach has benefitted from YAC (5th most YAC per Completion among qualifying QB's).  

He's also largely been given enough time to throw, contrary to the "he's running for his life out there" argument that isn't really backed up in the data when compared to another QBs.

Zach's dwindling group of defenders are running out of excuses.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

This is why stats need to be evaluated in context though. Remove the stats from the equation and just the tape play-to-play. He's night and day better this year than he was last year and I don't think its very close

I think that’s the issue, though: he has clearly improved in some areas (as has the team), and he’s still a bottom-three QB statistically in football, and in a year where QB metrics are all low to start with. I believe it when you say that the org is all-in on him, but there has to be some semblance of concern inside that building. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

This is why stats need to be evaluated in context though. Remove the stats from the equation and just the tape play-to-play. He's night and day better this year than he was last year and I don't think its very close

"night and day better"

 

[Smashmouth]

2 hours ago, Pac said:

Despite leading the league in pirouettes, Zap has been a disappointment.  

I'm fearful that if Belichick had Sam seeing ghosts he may have Zippy talking to them.

He will get the rest of this year and all of next so all we can do is hope for improvement.

NFL windows to compete for the playoffs or be a SB contender are short . All the fantastic young players we have on this roster will have to be paid in a 2 year window about 3-4 years from now. So IMHO this team is now staring at a 4 year window to compete for a SB only saving grace is that Joe D can continue to fill holes to keep this team competitive like say the Ravens the Niner's the Patriots for 20 years ..... He may very well be able to do that but IMO right now if this team is playoff bound this year with a Terrible QB we could be in the discussion for a SB run the 2 following years . The only thing that will hold us back from that reality is Zach Wilson because he Stinks and no he's not even close to what Mark Sanchez was a guy who played better in the playoffs. 

Yesterday the Jets got in field goal range and were terrified to let Zach throw the ball to even try to get closer so his own team knows exactly what he is. Only problem instead of having Mike White as the back up we have Joe Flacco who would have been sacked 15 times yesterday, the only thing Zach does well is escapeability but he never turns that into anything because while he's escaping he always seems to run right into the defenders that are being pushed outside by design because he leaves the pocket prematurely at an alarming rate. He plays scared of the rush and he plays scared to throw a ball in tight coverage to at least give his WR the chance to even make a play. Thsi is the worst QB play I have seen here and its a shame because the guy has all the talent but he totally lacks any feel for the game at all.

[Smashmouth]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"night and day better"

 

He's not even night and day better than Tim Tebow actually Tebow was better maybe he edged out Brooks Bollinger

[Smashmouth]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think that’s the issue, though: he has clearly improved in some areas (as has the team), and he’s still a bottom-three QB statistically in football, and in a year where QB metrics are all low to start with. I believe it when you say that the org is all-in on him, but there has to be some semblance of concern inside that building. 

with Joe Flacco as the back up and Wike White inactive every week ? Sounds more like stupidity

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

with Joe Flacco as the back up and Wike White inactive every week ? Sounds more like stupidity

Exactly. They’re a little boxed in right now.

[Hex]

Joe Flacco is still the Jets passing leader

[slimjasi]

3 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

What I'm afraid of is that the Zach Wilson we're seeing now won't be enough to overcome a dominant Bills team, and a Bill Belichick defense twice.

We'll see, I guess.

I don't think we were ever beating the Bills regardless, but he needs to be good enough to beat NE

[peekskill68]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Really think it was matchup driven. I was hoping they'd take us by surprise and call a play-action bomb, but yesterdays game plan was clearly ultra-conservative due to their respect for the Denver defense as Saleh said in his press conference

Honestly didn't see much vertical against Miami either  Seems like it's a tendency now which makes game planning against Lafleur easier. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

Before the season everyone wanted Zach in the top half of quarterback statistics.  There wasn’t much talk about winning games because no one thought the Jets would be competitive if he wasn’t. 
 

It’s kind of a no man’s land.  He’s leading the team to wins, but looks bad while doing it.  

[bitonti]

33 minutes ago, football guy said:

No doubt Josh Allen is a bigger and stronger athlete, but to say that Zach Wilson is a "below average athlete" is moronic. He's a freak athlete and by no means is "small"

• Avg starting QB: 6'2 3/4", 220.7 lb.
• Zach WIlson: 6'2 1/8", 221 lb. 

Criticize Zach Wilson for his play, criticize him for having a baby face, but the Zach Wilson hate by some on this board borders on the line of insanity lol. I get that fans get emotional with their opinions/perspectives, but the amount of guys on here literally making up alternative realities to support their own opinions has reached a mindboggling level

My problem isn't that he's average sized it's that they used the 2 overall pick on a guy that compares to Aaron Rodgers who was a 22 pick or drew Brees who was a second rounder 

They over drafted him and now they are hiding him 

If the job was just hand the ball off 30 times a game they could have drafted penei Sewell and let Mike white hand it off 

[RevisIsland610]

6 hours ago, football guy said:

This is why stats need to be evaluated in context though. Remove the stats from the equation and just the tape play-to-play. He's night and day better this year than he was last year and I don't think its very close

It seems to me he's doing a lot of the same things. Poor accuracy on easier short to medium passes that an NFL QB should be making, not handling pressure and back peddling 20 yards behind LOS when he does get heavy pressure, has trouble reading defenses and seems to lock on to 1 receiver far too often. I'm not impressed. 

[football guy]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

My problem isn't that he's average sized it's that they used the 2 overall pick on a guy that compares to Aaron Rodgers who was a 22 pick or drew Brees who was a second rounder 

They over drafted him and now they are hiding him 

If the job was just hand the ball off 30 times a game they could have drafted penei Sewell and let Mike white hand it off 

So now we're back to "don't take QBs 2nd overall that are not above average size for an NFL QB" lol... 

In regards to your statement about running the ball: you do realize that they dropped back to pass 32 times versus ran 20 times yesterday right? The game plan and game script is going to change every week. What's most important is that they're winning football games, and the coaches genuinely believe Zach is growing as a player each and every week by being able to play within the office. Whether they are right or wrong will ultimately be decided a few years from now