Jets already locked in between picks 6-8, and may pick #8 no matter what they do vs. NE?

[Alka]

9 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’ve seen it posted we can pick as low as #12 with a win, and as high as #5 with a loss. Factoring in SOS as the first tie breaker, it seems our highest slot is #6 - which we may not even control - and lowest is #8.

Based on https://www.tankathon.com/nfl:

Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8.

Jets can’t pick higher than #6:

Assume Jets lose and all 3 teams currently at 5-11 win. Jets would leapfrog 2 of those 3 because we still have an easier SOS.

The Giants, with a win, would probably have the same SOS as the Jets with another loss to NE (seems that close without doing the math). Jets won head to head (the next tie breaker), giving the Giants the higher pick. IOW the Jets can’t pick ahead of the NYG no matter what happens this weekend.

With a Jets loss and a 4-way tie at 6-11 the Jets would pick 6th.

***

Jets may not control their own slot no matter what they do on Sunday:

As just noted above we can’t leapfrog the Giants if we lose and they win, and we also can’t get leapfrogged by any current 7-win teams even if we win and they all lose.

The only teams the Jets can leapfrog are the 5-11 Chargers and 5-11 Titans. If the Chargers and Titans both lose this weekend, they’ll of course both still pick ahead of the Jets.

If the Chargers and Titans both lose, then the Jets pick 8th whether they win or lose (or tie) against New England.

Losing just to make NE’s pick lower?:

A Jets loss to NE could drop NE lower by 1-2 slots…or not at all.

The Chargers and Titans can’t leapfrog NE because of harder SOS thus far (which only gets “harder” still if they lose Sunday, and NE’s SOS gets easier if they beat the Jets).

The Jets-Pats outcome also may not matter if Wash, Ari, and NYG lose out themselves, which seems likely against Dallas, Seattle, and Philadelphia, respectively, even if some starters are rested.

So the Jets-Pats game result might not even change the draft slot for either team no matter who wins. 
 

***caveat: I woke up in the middle of the night, so I’m not on full sleep. Therefore feel free to correct me if I’m off or way off here, lol. I guessed a separation of .003-.005 in SOS (at this stage of the season) represents 1 opponent win/loss, since no one seemed to be separated by less than that. But in fairness I admittedly didn’t add up all the cumulative wins/losses myself, and took this shortcut with the Jets (.507) and Giants (.511), guessing a Jets loss and Giants win would settle both teams’ SOS as a tie at/around .509-ish.

Thank you Sperm!  What's interesting to me is that if the Jets do win, and are bunched up with 4 other teams at 7 wins, then in the second round, the Jets would drop in the pick to I believe the bottom of the other 7 win teams.  Since the Jets don't have that 2nd round pick, since it goest to the Packers, it won't really matter for the Jets!

[Alka]

1 hour ago, TommyT said:

The Washington win was costly.

True, but the Jets should have beaten the Patriots in the first game, so, things have a way of evening out.  Truth be told, the Jets should have beaten the Chiefs as well.  The Jets deserve to be a 6 or 7 win team.  I do want them to lose on Sunday, but I can't cry over the fact that we eked out a win over Washington. We also lost to the garbage Falcons and Chargers, and Raiders.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Alka said:

True, but the Jets should have beaten the Patriots in the first game, so, things have a way of evening out.  Truth be told, the Jets should have beaten the Chiefs as well.  The Jets deserve to be a 6 or 7 win team.  I do want them to lose on Sunday, but I can't cry over the fact that we eked out a win over Washington. We also lost to the garbage Falcons and Chargers, and Raiders.

The win they didn’t deserve was the giants win, it was absurd coaching by the giants.  

[jetsfan56]

 
Here’s the reason: as I mentioned, I had just awakened hours too early, without enough sleep, when I started looking this up. So I was briefly thinking I was clever, and posted my ignorance for posterity, before falling back asleep.
http://content.invisioncic.com/y326398/monthly_2024_01/image.gif.d0cdeb23ea65ab4ed0a54450c9704720.gif
That’s why.

No oops button


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[jetsfan56]

Odds are perhaps one of the top 3 QBs may work out. It’s a real crapshoot. That’s why the Bears should trade out for a huge haul and continue with Fields.

should we have done it with Darnold? Qb’s for the most part need to sit and learn the NFL . Teams with low picks are generally poor teams with problems and expecting a rookie to carry them is crazy. Rinse- repeat. Improve your team and draft a qb later rounds every year or two who compliments what you are building. Just an opinion 🤷‍♂️


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[JetsMetsRangers]

I believe The JETS can pick as high as 5th.........Giants, Chargers and Titans win and Jets lost they jump over all 3 because the Jets would have the lowest SOS of all of them........If they win can fall all the way to number 12 if the 7-9 teams all lose because they have a higher SOS schedule than the Saints, Falcons, Vikings and one other team i think the Raiders.....

[Lurker89]

7 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Drake may is Zach Wilson  2.0

please him new  England 

That's actually JJ Mccarthy....

[THE BARON]

1 hour ago, doitny said:

there is no way BB would trade Herbert a proven good QB for a drafted QB. hell if he wants to do that he might as well stay in NE.

BB is 27 wins away from breaking the record. with Herbert he could break it in maybe 2 definitely 3 years. with a rookie QB he might never get it.

No other HC would trade Herbert for a boatload of draft swag other than BB if he could also get JJ as well.  As odd as it sounds, it could very well happen of BB moves to the Chargers. 

[UntouchableCrew]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I believe that beating the Pats locks the Pats into the #2 pick, which makes that job supremely attractive, which probably results in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. It would result in replacing the monkey on our backs with more monkeys.

I feel like we have Pats PTSD from them killing us for two decades but without Brady (and to a lesser degree Belichick) who cares? They're still the worst team in this division right now. They aren't worth being afraid of anymore.

Like, I think Vrabel is a good coach and maybe Maye is a stud. But is that more of an obstacle than the Dolphins and Bills? Our only real concern is how to fix this team and even if you don't think ending the season with a win to get to 7-10 helps us at all I really don't think the Patriots draft pick should be a concern.

This is all moot of course because the Pats are going to kick our a$$ like they always do. As much as I'd like it, Belcichick will not lose his final game as Pats HC to this Jets team. No shot.

[More Cowbell]

I honestly believe the Pats beat us because they are playing better football right now. They almost beat the Bills. 

[BigRy56]

is this for real? We’re picking between 6-8 no matter what?

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, More Cowbell said:

I honestly believe the Pats beat us because they are playing better football right now. They almost beat the Bills. 

Me too and BB isn’t one to tank.  

[JetsFanatic]

30 minutes ago, jetsfan56 said:

should we have done it with Darnold? Qb’s for the most part need to sit and learn the NFL . Teams with low picks are generally poor teams with problems and expecting a rookie to carry them is crazy. Rinse- repeat. Improve your team and draft a qb later rounds every year or two who compliments what you are building. Just an opinion 🤷‍♂️


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

At the time, I thought that might have been the way to go. We could have gotten quite a haul for the 2nd pick. That said, I’m not so sure how good Darnold is. He wasn’t great in Carolina and now he is a backup with the 49ers.

Fields has been steadily improving and I’m not so sure how good these QB prospects are.

[WhartonJet]

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8.

This is wrong.

We have a harder SOS than the 7 win teams, so they would leapfrog us if we win this week and they all lose

[JetsMetsRangers]

12 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

This is wrong.

We have a harder SOS than the 7 win teams, so they would leapfrog us if we win this week and they all lose

Yes the harder the SOS the worse your pick will be........We could end up  5th if we lose and Giants.....Chargers and Titans win but will almost certainly fall to 12th if all 7-9 teams lose and Jets win......

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

is this for real? We’re picking between 6-8 no matter what?

But we learned to win against Washington babyyyyy

[Bleedin Green]

Don't worry guys, I just found a way to make everyone happy.  There's one perfect solution available so that the Jets get to beat Belichick, but then still lose the game for draft positioning purposes:

 

[SickJetFan]

5 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

Jets are gonna beat New England and people should just prepare for that however they need to

I am pretty sure you are correct

[neckdemon]

1 hour ago, BigRy56 said:

is this for real? We’re picking between 6-8 no matter what?

no he was mistaken. highly unlikely we get any pick lower than 8 even if we lose. if we win we will likely end up around pick number 10 (8 would still be possible but would require all 4 teams with 7 wins to also win), but could be as low as 12

[varjet]

2 hours ago, Alka said:

True, but the Jets should have beaten the Patriots in the first game, so, things have a way of evening out.  Truth be told, the Jets should have beaten the Chiefs as well.  The Jets deserve to be a 6 or 7 win team.  I do want them to lose on Sunday, but I can't cry over the fact that we eked out a win over Washington. We also lost to the garbage Falcons and Chargers, and Raiders.

Unfortunately, this is really the right way to look at it.  The Jets are benefiting in the draft both from that AR8 injury (GB had the right idea with the trade, wanting a 2024 pick) and their underachievement.  This is a roster that should have 8-9 wins and picking much later. 

[batman10023]

25 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

no he was mistaken. highly unlikely we get any pick lower than 8 even if we lose. if we win we will likely end up around pick number 10 (8 would still be possible but would require all 4 teams with 7 wins to also win), but could be as low as 12

if we lose we can't get worse than 8th.  it's not even possible.

a loss probably gets them 8th or maybe 7th.  Giants aren't winning (and Titans and chargers probably lose also).

a win is not good because of SOS.  my guess is we drop down to 10 or 11.   (1 out of the 4 teams will win  Atlanta, chicago, lv, min)

a win is worse because NE might get 2nd pick.  

[neckdemon]

3 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

if we lose we can't get worse than 8th.  it's not even possible.

a loss probably gets them 8th or maybe 7th.  Giants aren't winning (and Titans and chargers probably lose also).

a win is not good because of SOS.  my guess is we drop down to 10 or 11.   (1 out of the 4 teams will win  Atlanta, chicago, lv, min)

a win is worse because NE might get 2nd pick.  

exactly. we just need to lose. it will keep us from weakening our draft position while simultaneously weakening new england's

[slimjasi]

Nope, the Jets can finish as low as 12 

[neckdemon]

5 hours ago, doitny said:

we already know what they will say...

we win

JN: I hate Saleh, he cost us draft position in another meaniless win..

we lose

JN: I hate Saleh. he cant even beat a bad team like NE and end the streak.

Saleh loses either way.

At this point it's because we are sick of him and can't stand the sight of him. 

[chirorob]

4 hours ago, Alka said:

True, but the Jets should have beaten the Patriots in the first game, so, things have a way of evening out.  Truth be told, the Jets should have beaten the Chiefs as well.  The Jets deserve to be a 6 or 7 win team.  I do want them to lose on Sunday, but I can't cry over the fact that we eked out a win over Washington. We also lost to the garbage Falcons and Chargers, and Raiders.

They also really should have lost to the Giants.

[HighPitch]

This thread helped me write a great joke

ready?

What do u call a Lilco worker with a potty mouth?

An offensive lineman

 

thank u thank u thank u

[Green Ghost]

Meh… I’m fine waiting until Sunday night to see where we end up picking. I’m weird about stuff like that.

[slimjasi]

12 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I believe that beating the Pats locks the Pats into the #2 pick, which makes that job supremely attractive, which probably results in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. 

Beating the Pats does NOT lock them into #2. It depends on what happens with the SOS. 

[TuscanyTile2]

4 hours ago, JetsMetsRangers said:

I believe The JETS can pick as high as 5th.........Giants, Chargers and Titans win and Jets lost they jump over all 3 because the Jets would have the lowest SOS of all of them........If they win can fall all the way to number 12 if the 7-9 teams all lose because they have a higher SOS schedule than the Saints, Falcons, Vikings and one other team i think the Raiders.....

The Jets can pick as high as 1st overall if they're willing to trade up.

[Barry McCockinner]

27 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

This thread helped me write a great joke

ready?

What do u call a Lilco worker with a potty mouth?

An offensive lineman

 

thank u thank u thank u

blocked.

[Beerfish]

I am fully confident the worse case scenario for the jets and best for the pats will occur for this game.

[Jet_Engine1]

My give a **** is at an all time low right now. 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 hours ago, WhartonJet said:

This is wrong.

We have a harder SOS than the 7 win teams, so they would leapfrog us if we win this week and they all lose

 

13 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

Here’s the reason: as I mentioned, I had just awakened hours too early, without enough sleep, when I started looking this up. So I was briefly thinking I was clever, and posted my ignorance for posterity, before falling back asleep.

That’s why.

 

[Rich Thornburgh]

We’re picking 8 and taking alt or fashuana 

[Bronx]

On 1/4/2024 at 1:45 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

I’ve seen it posted we can pick as low as #12 with a win, and as high as #5 with a loss. Factoring in SOS as the first tie breaker, it seems our highest slot is #6 - which we may not even control - and lowest is #8.

Based on https://www.tankathon.com/nfl:

Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8.

Jets can’t pick higher than #6:

Assume Jets lose and all 3 teams currently at 5-11 win. Jets would leapfrog 2 of those 3 because we still have an easier SOS.

The Giants, with a win, would probably have the same SOS as the Jets with another loss to NE (seems that close without doing the math). Jets won head to head (the next tie breaker), giving the Giants the higher pick. IOW the Jets can’t pick ahead of the NYG no matter what happens this weekend.

With a Jets loss and a 4-way tie at 6-11 the Jets would pick 6th.

***

Jets may not control their own slot no matter what they do on Sunday:

As just noted above we can’t leapfrog the Giants if we lose and they win, and we also can’t get leapfrogged by any current 7-win teams even if we win and they all lose.

The only teams the Jets can leapfrog are the 5-11 Chargers and 5-11 Titans. If the Chargers and Titans both lose this weekend, they’ll of course both still pick ahead of the Jets.

If the Chargers and Titans both lose, then the Jets pick 8th whether they win or lose (or tie) against New England.

Losing just to make NE’s pick lower?:

A Jets loss to NE could drop NE lower by 1-2 slots…or not at all.

The Chargers and Titans can’t leapfrog NE because of harder SOS thus far (which only gets “harder” still if they lose Sunday, and NE’s SOS gets easier if they beat the Jets).

The Jets-Pats outcome also may not matter if Wash, Ari, and NYG lose out themselves, which seems likely against Dallas, Seattle, and Philadelphia, respectively, even if some starters are rested.

So the Jets-Pats game result might not even change the draft slot for either team no matter who wins. 
 

***caveat: I woke up in the middle of the night, so I’m not on full sleep. Therefore feel free to correct me if I’m off or way off here, lol. I guessed a separation of .003-.005 in SOS (at this stage of the season) represents 1 opponent win/loss, since no one seemed to be separated by less than that. But in fairness I admittedly didn’t add up all the cumulative wins/losses myself, and took this shortcut with the Jets (.507) and Giants (.511), guessing a Jets loss and Giants win would settle both teams’ SOS as a tie at/around .509-ish.

Nothing more relaxing than New Year's draft resolutions.