Assuming the Jets can find a Trade Partner...

[hawk]

How far would they want to trade back, and who can they target?

There seems to be good debate on the top Tackles / Offensive Lineman and a few of them.  Same for WR.

The focus seems to be who is there at 10 or trading up for the same positions.  So, if they can trade back, how far should they look, and who would be their target, based on assumed projections.

[slats]

Massive assumption. Hard to see many trade back opportunities that don’t involve a QB, but I suspect four QBs to go before #10, basically nullifying that option. 

[The Crusher]

9 is likely the spot people try to trade to.

[Augustiniak]

I’d love the jets to trade back, maybe they do, but not really past 13.  I believe jd wants one of a few guys and won’t trade back to say, 17-18.  Ultimately i believe jd stays at 10 and takes his favorite tackle, it’s a layup for him.  I’m preparing for fashanu

[Larz]

More or less kinda sorta to get a second this year you need to move back about 6+ spots. That’s Fauntanu territory maybe Fuaga but are they guards? 
 

I would hate to miss out on Latham. Alt and Olu could be gone by 10.  
 

If you miss out on Latham is Fauntanu a reasonable consolation prize?

Depends on the Jets evaluation of if he can play OT probably 

[Warfish]

I don't see any realistic trade-back scenario.

The top 4 QB's (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) will all be taken prior to pick #10.

And Alt and MHJ will also be gone by #10.

No one is trading up for the other players who will drop to #10.

Best plan to is stand firm, and see which OL or WR drops to us thanks to the run on QB's.  We're sure to get a really good one of one or the other.

I too would have liked more picks, but that ship sailed when we went all in to get Rodgers.  We're just lucky we have a 1st at all this cycle, albeit at the cost of seeing Rodgers play last year.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

I think anything past 15 is getting dicey on missing out on some of the OL. But that small of a move back is not getting you a 2nd round pick. 

Guyton, Jackson-Powers, Mims, Brian Thomas............Penix??

[Alka]

43 minutes ago, hawk said:

How far would they want to trade back, and who can they target?

There seems to be good debate on the top Tackles / Offensive Lineman and a few of them.  Same for WR.

The focus seems to be who is there at 10 or trading up for the same positions.  So, if they can trade back, how far should they look, and who would be their target, based on assumed projections.

I have gone through many mock drafts, and IMO, the Jets should not go beyond #20 in the first round as a trade back, and ideally pick up a 2nd round pick, depending on where we need to trade back.  If we trade back one to three spots, I can see us getting a top 75 pick which I would not be adverse to.

In the top 20, you will still get a 1st round quality tackle, and possibly a choice of a couple or 3 players.  At #70 or so, we also have I think #72, so we could get either 2 wide receivers, or 1 wide receiver and a high quality safety, interior lineman, linebacker or defensive tackle.

That is what I would do, unless one of our top 2 tackles are there at #10.  I am assuming that all 3 wide receivers will be gone by 10, and there is no way I want Bowers at 10, and I do not want to reach for the next wide receiver either.  

[PepPep]

I have had this prediction and I'm sticking with it. The first trade in the top 10 we will see will be with the Bears pick at 9 for JJ McCarthy. Either the Vikings will move up to secure him, the Broncos will move up to hop the Vikings or the Raiders will move up to hop the Broncos and Vikings. This is a scenario where the Bears really want Odunze to fall to 9 so they can pair him with Caleb and instead Odunze goes to the Giants. Thats my take. I think MHJ goes to ARI, LAC take Nabers and the Giants feel like they have to pull the trigger on Odunze. 

Anyway, at 9 the Bears feel like they can move down and still get a top tier defender or one of the 'second tier' WRs in this loaded class. My mock proposes they end up taking Brian Thomas Jr. at 11 after the Vikes move up a couple of spots to secure JJ.  

So what does this mean for the Jets? 

Well, it means that the top 4 QBs go in the top 9 and the Vikings no longer need a QB as they are the ones moving up. So what are we looking at as far as potential trade partners?

1. Someone wants Fashanu or Bowers. These are two non-QB prospects I can see a team falling in love with and deciding they want to move up a few spots for. 

2. Someone wants a top defender or Edge. So far, at least in my mock, I only have ONE defender come off the board - Turner to ATL. That means guys like Verse, Latu, Robinson, etc. are all there for the taking. The Jets don't need defense but other teams behind them certainly do. So I could see a move up from a team like NO or SEA for an impact edge defender. 

3. Someone falls in love with Penix or Bo Nix. Frankly, this is the least likely scenario. This just seems like a reach. But the Raiders/Broncos may want to move up just 2-3 spots to secure their guy, whether its Nix or Penix. Its not a lot to pay for a move up and both teams need QBs. Unlikely because compared to the other available talent at this point in the draft this would be a reach -IMO. They would have to love one of these guys AND fear that another team could snatch him away before their selection. Just very unlikely. 

In the end, assuming the draft falls the way I am thinking it will, I doubt the Jets will find a trade partner. I think it will come down to Fashanu and Bowers. I may be completely wrong, JD may love Fuaga. He may love Fautanu and reach for him. He may want a WR no matter what and take Brian Thomas Jr. (who I love). But IMO, the Jets take Fashanu if no trade materializes. The guy who - BTW - only a few months ago most Jet fans were hoping and praying would fall to us at 10. 

CHI- Caleb

WAS- Daniels

NE- Maye

ARI- MHJ

LAC- Nabers

NYG- Odunze

TEN- Alt

ATL- Turner

CHI- TRADE: Minn moves up for JJ McCarthy

NYJ- Fashanu

MINN- TRADE: CHI takes Brian Thomas Jr. or Jared Verse. 

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

More or less kinda sorta to get a second this year you need to move back about 6+ spots. That’s Fauntanu territory maybe Fuaga but are they guards? 
 

I would hate to miss out on Latham. Alt and Olu could be gone by 10.  
 

If you miss out on Latham is Fauntanu a reasonable consolation prize?

Depends on the Jets evaluation of if he can play OT probably 

I still wonder, if they trade down, why not go for Tyler Guyton. Seems ideal for a yr to develop behind T.Smith.  Get yourself at least a 2nd to then use on a WR.

[Larz]

7 minutes ago, C Mart said:

I still wonder, if they trade down, why not go for Tyler Guyton. Seems ideal for a yr to develop behind T.Smith.  Get yourself at least a 2nd to then use on a WR.

Lots of possibilities. I guess the formula is asking is the downgrade from Latham or Fashanu comparable to the upgrade in WR. 

[Doggin94it]

Jets have to be hoping they can get Odunze, which basically requires two things: (1) 4 QBs in the top 10 and (2) CHI going D or OT at 9. If that lands, they're not going to move back at all. If the part that doesn't land is 4 QBs - i.e. you get 3 WRs, 3 QBs, Alt, Turner, and either a second D or second OT at 9 - there would likely be a viable offer to move back at 10, and the OTs and second tier WRs are fungible enough for it to be worth saying yes to. But if Odunze is on the board, they stick and pick

[hawk]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Massive assumption. Hard to see many trade back opportunities that don’t involve a QB, but I suspect four QBs to go before #10, basically nullifying that option. 

I don't agree.  Teams trade up all the time in the middle of the first.  Hell the Jets traded up from 23 to 14 a couple years ago.

Defense may be the ticket at 10.  Seems that it is soft this year, and a team may have the value on a player at 10, and a huge fall of after that player.

 

[slats]

1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

Jets have to be hoping they can get Odunze, which basically requires two things: (1) 4 QBs in the top 10 and (2) CHI going D or OT at 9. If that lands, they're not going to move back at all. If the part that doesn't land is 4 QBs - i.e. you get 3 WRs, 3 QBs, Alt, Turner, and either a second D or second OT at 9 - there would likely be a viable offer to move back at 10, and the OTs and second tier WRs are fungible enough for it to be worth saying yes to. But if Odunze is on the board, they stick and pick

This is my thinking, I hope it’s theirs, too. Ideally, one of the possible WR destinations ahead of them becomes the Vikings trade partner for QB #4. The Chargers trading down or taking an OT would give me great joy. 

[slats]

5 minutes ago, hawk said:

I don't agree.  Teams trade up all the time in the middle of the first.  Hell the Jets traded up from 23 to 14 a couple years ago.

Defense may be the ticket at 10.  Seems that it is soft this year, and a team may have the value on a player at 10, and a huge fall of after that player.

The three teams picking after the Jets are all believed to be interested in QBs. Other teams are unlikely to feel the need to trade ahead of them for a defensive player. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Would like to net an early day 2 pick in any tradeback, and the only way that happens is if a coveted QB is on the board at #10.

Hopefully a team gets desperate for McCarthy, MPJ, or even Nix at #10 and Joe Douglas can pull a Jamal Adams level deal 🤣

Though it seems extremely unlikely at this point McCarthy will still be on the board

[hawk]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

The three teams picking after the Jets are all believed to be interested in QBs. Other teams are unlikely to feel the need to trade ahead of them for a defensive player. 

In your scenario you felt the QBs would be gone.  That opens each up to a different position.

Not to mention that 2 of the three won't get a QB in the best scenario.

[derp]

I’m not entirely sure the Jets have enough spots that make sense for rookies (versus further veteran acquisitions) to roster all of their picks as things stand now so I’m not entirely convinced they’ll want to add more, though you can argue they could move back in the first and then up later with the added draft capital which I’d potentially buy depending on how they go about it.

[HighPitch]

1 hour ago, hawk said:

How far would they want to trade back, and who can they target?

There seems to be good debate on the top Tackles / Offensive Lineman and a few of them.  Same for WR.

The focus seems to be who is there at 10 or trading up for the same positions.  So, if they can trade back, how far should they look, and who would be their target, based on assumed projections.

they can go all the way back to even the end of round 1 and prosper. Ive mock drafted this scenario 1000 times and it always pays off by picking up a second and even a 3rd. 

 

 

Do NOT be afraid to be picking 28. Good tackles and wrs will be there

[slats]

1 minute ago, hawk said:

In your scenario you felt the QBs would be gone.  That opens each up to a different position.

Not to mention that 2 of the three won't get a QB in the best scenario.

Four QBs would be gone, but Nix and Penix would still be there. I’ve seen them mocked to Denver and LV, too, fwiw. Trading back is always fun in theory, but far more difficult to execute. I’m sure JD wanted to trade back last year as he used up every second of time he had to make his pick, but it never materialized. 

[hawk]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Four QBs would be gone, but Nix and Penix would still be there. I’ve seen them mocked to Denver and LV, too, fwiw. Trading back is always fun in theory, but far more difficult to execute. I’m sure JD wanted to trade back last year as he used up every second of time he had to make his pick, but it never materialized. 

Ok.  If three teams want a QB and 2 QBs are left, and the Jets don't...

[83Kelly2Allen18]

Take one of the top 4 wrs or Bowers. Stop overthinking it 

 

 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Would be so much better if the Jets hadn't won those meaningless games vs NE and the Skins.

They could sit tight and wait for Nabers (or MHJ) to fall right to them.

[Sarge4Tide]

Somebody that a team covets will be available at #10.  

At least one of the group: 4th QB, 3rd WR, 2nd OT, 1st or 2nd CB, or 1st or 2nd Edge has to be there.

Somebody will call, what they have to offer remains to be seen 

[bicketybam]

15 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Would be so much better if the Jets hadn't won those meaningless games vs NE and the Skins.

They could sit tight and wait for Nabers (or MHJ) to fall right to them.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

CHI- Caleb

WAS- Daniels

NE- Maye

ARI- MHJ

LAC- Nabers

NYG- Odunze

TEN- Alt

ATL- Turner

CHI- TRADE: Minn moves up for JJ McCarthy

NYJ- Fashanu

MINN- TRADE: CHI takes Brian Thomas Jr. or Jared Verse. 

In-division trade to snipe the Jets on JJ? I don’t see it. Maybe the Jets sell #10 to Minny just to remove the possibility of sending it to another team trying to snipe Minny.

 

[section314]

48 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Somebody that a team covets will be available at #10.  

At least one of the group: 4th QB, 3rd WR, 2nd OT, 1st or 2nd CB, or 1st or 2nd Edge has to be there.

Somebody will call, what they have to offer remains to be seen 

With our luck it will be somebody who doesn't have a 2nd.😁. I could see Bengals wanting to move up for a tackle to protect Burrow. That could get us pick 49

[CTJetsFan]

I agree with what @Augustiniak, @slats , @Warfish and others have said. I don't think we're going to find a trade partner at 10. I think the top 3 WRs will be gone and anyone that wants a QB will trade up ahead of our pick.

I think our options with be 3rd OT, 4the WR or possibly Bowers. If a trade is presented, I wouldn't want to go below 14-15.

 

[varjet]

• I think last year the Jets wanted to trade down but got worked up over compensation.  Another 3rd round pick in this draft is ok to trade down 5 or so picks.  Better off with the extra pick and to pay the first round pick less.
• I don’t like the picks at 10.  Fashanu is a project.  Fuaga and Fautanu are not 10.  Bowers has no workout and is undersized.  BTJ stil needs development.   The best value players at 10 are defense and we don’t want to do that.  
• There are plenty of players that we can replace on this roster with draft picks round 4 and above.  We need a S.  We need G/C depth.  Mitchell could get upgraded.  We can upgrade 2 WR spots.  We could use a RB.  LBs depth can be upgraded.  Plenty of use for good draft picks. 

[Jets723]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

I don't see any realistic trade-back scenario.

The top 4 QB's (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) will all be taken prior to pick #10.

And Alt and MHJ will also be gone by #10.

No one is trading up for the other players who will drop to #10.

Best plan to is stand firm, and see which OL or WR drops to us thanks to the run on QB's.  We're sure to get a really good one of one or the other.

I too would have liked more picks, but that ship sailed when we went all in to get Rodgers.  We're just lucky we have a 1st at all this cycle, albeit at the cost of seeing Rodgers play last year.

You may be right.  I’m a fan of trading back but takes two to tango.  If we stand pat at 10 and four QBs are taken prior then yes we should be able to get a really good OL or WR

[Augustiniak]

54 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

I agree with what @Augustiniak, @slats , @Warfish and others have said. I don't think we're going to find a trade partner at 10. I think the top 3 WRs will be gone and anyone that wants a QB will trade up ahead of our pick.

I think our options with be 3rd OT, 4the WR or possibly Bowers. If a trade is presented, I wouldn't want to go below 14-15.

 

I actually do think the jets will be able to trade out.  I think that the jets may not want to trade back too far, and jd may just want his guy.  I also think that could play into the top 9 picks, there’s a guy each team wants and they’re not trading out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota can’t trade into the top 9 b/c teams don’t want to lose their guy.  

[bicketybam]

If JD doesnt absolutely love the player at 10, he should absolutely trade back. I think BJT at 10 would be criminal. Someone else suggested Penix at 10. He might be a fine prospect but at 10?? Absolutely not. I wouldn't take Bowers at 10 either because I think he will be available in the 15 range. 

[Beerfish]

You can probably go back to around 20 and still get a serious oline or Wr prospect.

[hmhertz]

Six QBS will go in round one, because there aren't any worth taking in

round one in '25.  It's OK to drop back a bit, but make sure we're in a position

to take  Brian Thomas, BT is the best TD maker in the draft. He takes the top

off the defense. The Jets haven't had a guy do it like him since Wesley Walker.

He will open up running game and put fear into the defense like no player

in this draft. Odunze &  Harrison are  Keyshawns,  BT effects the game like

Maynard and Walker the two greatest receivers to wear Jets Green

[PepPep]

4 hours ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

I think anything past 15 is getting dicey on missing out on some of the OL. But that small of a move back is not getting you a 2nd round pick. 

Guyton, Jackson-Powers, Mims, Brian Thomas............Penix??

So based on the draft pick value chart the Jets pick #10 is valued at 1300 points. The first pick in Rd. 2 is valued at 580. The last pick in Rd. 2 is valued at 270. So if the Jets moved down to, let's say 16, thats a late 2nd rounder - 300 pts. If they moved down to 21, thats a high 2nd rounder - 500pts. 

These are just estimates, GMs don't all go by the same value charts and some may want to 'sweeten the pot' since they are typically moving up for a player. But my point is, the Jets can very well get a 2nd rounder by just moving down a few spots. Lets say New Orleans acquired KC's last pick in the second round (value 270). They could then offer that to trade up with the Jets from 14 (value 1100) to 10 (value 1300). It would be an overpay of 70 points. Completely feasible for a team trying to move up and get 'their guy'. The Jets would net a 2nd rounder - albeit the last pick in Rd. 2, and only drop to 14.