Where do you have Will.McD in the lineup ?

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Has a GM ever had a worse 1st round record than JD?

Oh yes, Mac and Idzik.

But this team has to be a front runner for lack of production from it's 1st and 2nd round picks last 20 years.

 

Sauce , Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson the second, Alijah Vera Tucker, Will McGriddle 

Wide Load & Zach

[Green Ghost]

21 minutes ago, Jethead said:

Why not. I bet every player but Nate Newton and The Big Ticket got similar advice.

Okay, but McD was the only one Saleh gave it to publicly in that presser, am I right?. 
Let’s see if the kid listened… we’ll find out soon.

[DoubleDown]

Isn't Reddick a linebacker?

Personally, I hope JJ, Reddick, McDonald, and Q are all on the field on passing downs.  It will be tough to stop.

[Jet Nut]

22 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

 

 

 

You seem to be determined to twist what I said into something you want it to be. “Complaint”, “Puzzling”…”Whine”? Huh? What are you talking about?
I just included our entire conversation above this quote, and maybe it’s me, but all I see is me relating what Coach said the kid needs to do this offseason, and then saying we’ll see come OTA’s whether the kid listened.
How you got from my original post to where you are in your second reply quite honestly, amazes me.

 

You think I don’t remember all your crying that we took a EDGE over a slot receiver?   Maybe if you didn’t have a history where you moaned about the kid, keep running a dumb name like duck over and over I could take it as serious football talk.  
Maybe then you’d realize and understand what I was saying and why.  If it’s often said of players coming out college that they need to put on weight and increase strength then why your complaint that the comment isn’t what you want to hear about McDonald?  Why throw in his age, what does it have to do with it? Or that he was a 1st round pick?  College players often need to bulk up and DL in particular needs some time to develop.  

 

 

[Green Ghost]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You think I don’t remember all your crying that we took a EDGE over a slot receiver?   Maybe if you didn’t have a history where you moaned about the kid, keep running a dumb name like duck over and over I could take it as serious football talk.  
Maybe then you’d realize and understand what I was saying and why.  If it’s often said of players coming out college that they need to put on weight and increase strength then why your complaint that the comment isn’t what you want to hear about McDonald?  Why throw in his age, what does it have to do with it? Or that he was a 1st round pick?  College players often need to bulk up and DL in particular needs some time to develop.  

 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Will McDonald had a promising rookie year, getting better down the stretch, when he had a very good pass rush win rate.

Was JJ a bust after his rookie year?  Below is a comparison of their rookie years from jetsxfactor.

I’m not defending JD’s decision to draft.  The following is a simple comparison on the pass rush side.  JJ graded out as a better run defender.

 

• 2022 Johnson: 151 pass rush snaps, 9.3% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 2 QB hits, 11% pass rush win rate
• 2023 McDonald: 99 pass rush snaps, 12.1% pressure rate, 4 total sacks, 1 QB hit, 15.8% pass rush win rate

Johnson might argue that he didn’t see many true pass sets, resulting in this difference. Still, the disparity carried over to true pass sets, as well.

• 2022 Johnson: 50 true pass sets, 14% pressure rate, 1 total sack, 22.9% pass rush win rate
• 2023 McDonald: 47 true pass sets, 17% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 22.7% pass rush win rate

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Will McDonald had a promising rookie year, getting better down the stretch, when he had a very good pass rush win rate.

Was JJ a bust after his rookie year?  Below is a comparison of their rookie years from jetsxfactor.

I’m not defending JD’s decision to draft.  The following is a simple comparison on the pass rush side.  JJ graded out as a better run defender.

 

 

• 2022 Johnson: 151 pass rush snaps, 9.3% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 2 QB hits, 11% pass rush win rate
• 2023 McDonald: 99 pass rush snaps, 12.1% pressure rate, 4 total sacks, 1 QB hit, 15.8% pass rush win rate

Johnson might argue that he didn’t see many true pass sets, resulting in this difference. Still, the disparity carried over to true pass sets, as well.

• 2022 Johnson: 50 true pass sets, 14% pressure rate, 1 total sack, 22.9% pass rush win rate
• 2023 McDonald: 47 true pass sets, 17% pressure rate, 3 total sacks, 22.7% pass rush win rate

people were calling JJ a bust after like 8 games.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Staying on topic with the Edge situation, I emphasized a couple times already that the Jets are moving toward better playmakers.

JFM and Huff have had excellent pressure rates (although JFM inside rate dipped below avg last yr) but outside of Huff’s 10 sack season, neither offered much in the way of sacks, forced fumbles, batted passes, fumble recoveries, stuffed runs or other big plays (pick 6, pressure on field goals).

I posted some stats the other days but Reddick, JJ and rookie/projected McDonald are head and shoulders above in the big play category.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

20 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

people were calling JJ a bust after like 8 games.

It’s an unbelievably lazy player analysis and understanding of development time, progression and other factors (Jets Edge rotation).

I’d be concerned if McDonald didn’t get better as the season progressed.  But he did .. significantly and is setting himself up to take a JJ type leap.  

[Morrissey]

Calling a Jets DL a backup does not make any sense. Bryce Huff a back up? Eagles just paid him a lot of money.

[Green Ghost]

Let’s assume McD is going to get the snaps Huff did last season. 
He’s a #1 pick. Is it unfair to expect similar production?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

On the draft side, we can keep going back to JD’s horrible strikeouts in 2020 & 2021 or start to focus more on 2022 through today.

2022:  2 Grand slams (Sauce, Breece), 1 HR (Garrett), 1 Triple (JJ).

Year 3 will be telling for Ruckert, Mitchell & Clemons.

Add in Tony Adams as a clutch hit in extra innings.  
 

2023:  Tippmann was a member of the NFL All Rookie team & already looks like a long term foundational piece while McDonald has a real chance to take a big step after a promising finish to his rookie year.  

Warren flashed and the others took a redshirt year.  

So I would say JD struck out a lot as a rookie and 2nd year GM but has a huge slugging percentage in the draft since.  Still too early to call on many.

[SickJetFan]

6 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Cimini has him as a backup ... If that comes.to.pass .. has he become a resident of Bust Land considering where he was drafted ???
 
Cimini 's Two Deep
 
QB Rodgers, Taylor
RB Hall, Allen
WR Wilson, Brownlee
WR Corley, Gipson
WR Williams, Lazard
TE Conklin, Ruckert
LT Smith, Fashanu
LG Simpson, Schweitzer
C Tippmann, Schweitzer
RG Vera-Tucker, Schweitzer
RT Moses, Warren
 
Needs: Another interior lineman
 
DE Reddick, Clemons
DT Williams, Thomas
DT Kinlaw, Fotu
DE Johnson, McDonald
LB Mosley, Sherwood
LB Williams, Surratt
NB Carter II, Oliver
CB Gardner, Stiggers
CB Reed, Echols
S Adams, Key
S Clark, Davis
 
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
 
 

let us hope he hit the weight room this off-season

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

28 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Let’s assume McD is going to get the snaps Huff did last season. 
He’s a #1 pick. Is it unfair to expect similar production?

It’s a good question.  I would take JJ’s year 2 production as a good benchmark.  Or look at other first round Edges in their 2nd year.

What percentage of them have 10 sacks in their 2nd year?  Adjust McDonald expectation down based on Jets rotation (adjust pressure & sack rate up for same reason, ‘fresh legs’).

A reasonable expectation of a 15th pick feels like:

7.5 sacks, 2 FF, 75%tile pressure rate, trending toward average run defender 

[Larz]

RDE

[Green Ghost]

28 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

It’s a good question.  I would take JJ’s year 2 production as a good benchmark.  Or look at other first round Edges in their 2nd year.

What percentage of them have 10 sacks in their 2nd year?  Adjust McDonald expectation down based on Jets rotation (adjust pressure & sack rate up for same reason, ‘fresh legs’).

A reasonable expectation of a 15th pick feels like:

7.5 sacks, 2 FF, 75%tile pressure rate, trending toward average run defender 

There are so many different layer to this.

Yes, the Jets DL rotation is a factor, but because there’s so much talent, McD won’t be double teamed as much as other ER’s on most teams. He’s also going to be out there mostly when he can pin his ears back and just go after the QB, so that should help him accrue some #’s. I doubt they’ll be counting on him being out there in run situations.

I’m going to take this full circle and go back to my first thought in this thread… I’ll be happy (and impressed) if he listened to what Saleh said and comes into the OTA’s looking like he hit the weight room and bulked up looking to be more than the kid they put out there at the end of a lost season to get his feet wet. That will show how badly he wants this.

I didn’t see what I wanted to see from him last year but it wasn’t entirely his fault. He was drafted by a team that was loaded at his position. That’s not the case this year. It’s time for him to step up and show out.

[extmenace]

6 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Cimini has him as a backup ... If that comes.to.pass .. has he become a resident of Bust Land considering where he was drafted ???
 
Cimini 's Two Deep
 
QB Rodgers, Taylor
RB Hall, Allen
WR Wilson, Brownlee
WR Corley, Gipson
WR Williams, Lazard
TE Conklin, Ruckert
LT Smith, Fashanu
LG Simpson, Schweitzer
C Tippmann, Schweitzer
RG Vera-Tucker, Schweitzer
RT Moses, Warren
 
Needs: Another interior lineman
 
DE Reddick, Clemons
DT Williams, Thomas
DT Kinlaw, Fotu
DE Johnson, McDonald
LB Mosley, Sherwood
LB Williams, Surratt
NB Carter II, Oliver
CB Gardner, Stiggers
CB Reed, Echols
S Adams, Key
S Clark, Davis
 
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
 
 

Huff played 42% of the defensive snaps last year. Was he considered a back up or a situational player? McDonald should be in the same territory. 

[Dunnie]

It’s a good question.  I would take JJ’s year 2 production as a good benchmark.  Or look at other first round Edges in their 2nd year.
What percentage of them have 10 sacks in their 2nd year?  Adjust McDonald expectation down based on Jets rotation (adjust pressure & sack rate up for same reason, ‘fresh legs’).
A reasonable expectation of a 15th pick feels like:
7.5 sacks, 2 FF, 75%tile pressure rate, trending toward average run defender 

Makes the pick look even worse .. a guy that will be on the field less.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Dunnie]

No. Johnson got about 65% of the snaps as a starter last year, JFM was at 55%, Huff was at 41%, all part of their game day rotation. McDonald should post somewhere between Huff and JFM this year, I’d expect. Being a backup =/= being a bust. The Jets just have a lot of talent on the DL. If he plays well, he’ll play more. 
 
On offense, Fashanu, the #11 pick, is also in reserve, with hopes that he won’t get anywhere near 41% of the snaps this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots drafted Penn State’s RT in the third round to convert him into their starting rookie LT this season. Did they draft better just because they needed a starter? 

So essentially...
..it was a pick to bolster an already strong unit when there were glaring needs across the rest of the roster....

To justify the pick Saleh's assessment of 'Elite' needs confirmation.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Dunnie]

let us hope he hit the weight room this off-season

If he is a better Bryce Huff .. all will be forgiven.

You can hate the pick and still like the player.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Raideraholic]

2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Every 1st round pick in the history of the NFL has great college stats.  I'd like to see him play more...  he looks small compared to the average NFL player at his position.

He’s bigger than Reddick .   Like Tom Shane boyfriend always says . It’s not the size that matters, it how they use it.

[slats]

9 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

So essentially...
..it was a pick to bolster an already strong unit when there were glaring needs across the rest of the roster....

What were these glaring needs that they passed on? Who was your pick? 

[Greenseed4]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

What were these glaring needs that they passed on? Who was your pick? 

^This.

It’s easy to pass judgement on a pick out of context. 

[Jetkwondo]

McDonald said he's adding weight and will be training with JJ this off season .  Let's see if his talk translates to the field, I'm betting it does...

After a stop at home in Wisconsin, McDonald will train in Houston, TX, California with Jermaine Johnson and in Florham Park. His primary goal is to add weight to his 237-pound frame and report back between 250 and 255 pounds.

"It'll definitely help with power, just make sure I'm getting a better knockback," he said. "I was already doing it well now, but just adding a lot of muscle mass, I feel like it's going to be a lot better.

"This offseason I'm about to go crazy. When I come back, I'm going to be a whole different person."

[Bruce Harper]

6 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Has a GM ever had a worse 1st round record than JD?

Oh yes, Mac and Idzik.

But this team has to be a front runner for lack of production from it's 1st and 2nd round picks last 20 years.

 

Other than the best first round ever that he had with Sauce, Garret, and Jermaine (and then Breece).

[varjet]

JD’s first draft-Becton, Mims-was epically bad.  I think Covid and JD’s lack of willingness or ability to push the Jets’ Scouts he inherited, as well as a learning curve, contributed to that draft.

JD’s second draft-Zach Wilson, AVT, etc., was also not great, but I also think Woody encouraged JD to reach for a QB with the hopes he saves Woody $100mm+ in salary if he works out.  Teams just did the same thing a few weeks ago.  If you are drafting high, your are cursed with reaching for a QB.  Teams should get more responsible with that.  

His draft record, and FA record, is obviously mixed, but solidly average.  JD has been trying to build a team.  How this team does overall will dictate whether he gets extended. 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

JD’s first draft-Becton, Mims-was epically bad.  I think Covid and JD’s lack of willingness or ability to push the Jets’ Scouts he inherited, as well as a learning curve, contributed to that draft.

JD’s second draft-Zach Wilson, AVT, etc., was also not great, but I also think Woody encouraged JD to reach for a QB with the hopes he saves Woody $100mm+ in salary if he works out.  Teams just did the same thing a few weeks ago.  If you are drafting high, your are cursed with reaching for a QB.  Teams should get more responsible with that.  

His draft record, and FA record, is obviously mixed, but solidly average.  JD has been trying to build a team.  How this team does overall will dictate whether he gets extended. 

Jd’s first draft he went high risk/ high reward and gambled and lost.  Could have taken wirfs, he was the safest pick at 10.  Jefferson and lamb also there.  

[GreenFish]

36 minutes ago, varjet said:

JD’s first draft-Becton, Mims-was epically bad.  I think Covid and JD’s lack of willingness or ability to push the Jets’ Scouts he inherited, as well as a learning curve, contributed to that draft.

JD’s second draft-Zach Wilson, AVT, etc., was also not great, but I also think Woody encouraged JD to reach for a QB with the hopes he saves Woody $100mm+ in salary if he works out.  Teams just did the same thing a few weeks ago.  If you are drafting high, your are cursed with reaching for a QB.  Teams should get more responsible with that.  

His draft record, and FA record, is obviously mixed, but solidly average.  JD has been trying to build a team.  How this team does overall will dictate whether he gets extended. 

His second draft is interesting. His day 3 of his 2nd draft was the best day 3 he has had by far.

Starting Slot CB: MC

Quality Backup for the Jets: Echols and Sherwood

Starter for another team: Pinnock

Backup for another team: MC2

 Zach Wilson really torpedoed that class. Then you have Elijah Moore a good number 3 but a knucklehead and now off the team. And AVT has had injury issues.

Zach Wilson and character issues with MC and Moore ruined this class. 

[Sperm Edwards]

5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Jets Fans: We need better depth!

Also Jets Fans: No not like that!

We have a high quality roster with high quality backups in key positions. I think that's a good thing. McD will be on the field plenty.

I've got no prediction as to McDonald's or Fashanu's future this year or after that, but evidently the best idea would apparently be to head into the draft with an outright hole at a 70-90%-snap position. This way they can force-feed drafting that position in round 1, independent of who's on the board at that time, also to push the player into starting week 1 whether ready or not. 

The key to good drafting is to make sure you have a major starter hole heading into the draft. 

[genot]

I don't think we will miss Huff. McDonald has an elite 1st step,  and elite bend. He needed a the off season to improve his strength,  maybe bulk up little. The Jets obviously believe in him

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I've got no prediction as to McDonald's or Fashanu's future this year or after that, but evidently the best idea would apparently be to head into the draft with an outright hole at a 70-90%-snap position. This way they can force-feed drafting that position in round 1, independent of who's on the board at that time, also to push the player into starting week 1 whether ready or not. 

The key to good drafting is to make sure you have a major starter hole heading into the draft. 

It's a really significant change from anything we've seen in a Jets GM in a long time. The rebuild has reached a new stage. And people want this guy fired. 

[Green Ghost]

12 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

It's a really significant change from anything we've seen in a Jets GM in a long time. The rebuild has reached a new stage. And people want this guy fired. 

I don’t mean to come off as a needy fan here Barry, but he’s been here 5 years, so I have to ask. When do we get to the stage of the rebuild where we win more than 7 games in a season?

[Warfish]

9 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Has a GM ever had a worse 1st round record than JD?

Oh yes, Mac and Idzik.

But this team has to be a front runner for lack of production from it's 1st and 2nd round picks last 20 years.

 

2020:  Becton (OL).  Bust.  4 years, 30 starts out of a possible 67 games (45% played).  Was poop his entire final year (more than half his career starts).

2021:  Wilson (QB).  Bust.  One of the worst QB's (production-wise) in the modern era.  An all-time bust along Akili Smith and JaMarcus Russell.

2021:  AVT (OL).  TBD, Poss. Bust.  3 years, 28 starts out of a possible 51 games (55% played).  At least he was mostly a good player, when healthy.  Just rarely healthy.

2022:  Sauce (CB).  All-Pro Cover CB.  Just doesn't get any Interceptions (2 in 33 games, or 1 per season).

2022:  Wilson (WR).  Upper-half of league WR to-date (15th in rec. in 2023), limited by QB play and the occasional drop or fumble.

2022: J.J. (Edge).  Mid-Level pass rusher.  Did almost nothing as a rookie, 7.5 sacks in 2nd year (tied for 46th in the NFL).  Fans expect alot more in 2024....

2023:  McDonald (Edge).  Did almost nothing as a rookie, rotational, backup Edge.  Fans expect alot more in 2024....

2024:  Fashanu (OL).  TBD.

The Sauce and Wilson picks are very good (even with the near-total lack of INT's by Sauce).

The rest?  Two constantly broken O-linemen, two moderate-to-low-producing pas-rush edges, and our 2024 OL guy TBD.

Overall he's actually been a little better in the 2nd.  Mims was a bad bust, but Moore looked like a contributor till he and the team got in a pissing match over poop-Wilson, Hall is a stud RB (albeit lost most of a season to JD's constant, injuries), Tippmann looks solid (hurt alot, but at least didn't miss much time).  

Becton, Zach Wilson, Mims were the bad shoulda/coulda done better busts.  The rest, not so horrid really, but alot of injuries still.

[#27TheDominator]

9 hours ago, slats said:

No. Johnson got about 65% of the snaps as a starter last year, JFM was at 55%, Huff was at 41%, all part of their game day rotation. McDonald should post somewhere between Huff and JFM this year, I’d expect. Being a backup =/= being a bust. The Jets just have a lot of talent on the DL. If he plays well, he’ll play more. 
 
On offense, Fashanu, the #11 pick, is also in reserve, with hopes that he won’t get anywhere near 41% of the snaps this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots drafted Penn State’s RT in the third round to convert him into their starting rookie LT this season. Did they draft better just because they needed a starter? 

I remember how awesome Idzik's first draft was because "WE GOT FIVE STARTERS!!!"

[Barry McCockinner]

10 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

I don’t mean to come off as a needy fan here Barry, but he’s been here 5 years, so I have to ask. When do we get to the stage of the rebuild where we win more than 7 games in a season?

When we have a competent QB for more than 4 plays to go with the rest of the roster.