Will “Best Player” Philosophy Lead Jets Away From Most Critical Needs?

[JetNation]

It’s an age-old debate among football fans and armchair GM’s that’s unlikely to resolve itself any time soon.  When draft day comes and your team is on the clock, is it best to take the best overall player on your board, or do you take the best player who fills a need?

In three seasons in the Jets GM chair for Mike Maccagnan, he has clearly favored the former versus the latter, especially in his first and third drafts when he chose defensive lineman Leonard Williams and safety Jamal Adams, a pair of defenders who look to be cornerstones for years to come.  Darron Lee was the middle pick between Williams and Adams with questions about how much of an impact he can have continuing to linger.

Former first round pick Darron Lee flashed at times in 2017, but lacked consistency.

Will free agency and Maccagnan’s philosophy of “best player available” lead the Jets away from taking a player at a premier spot (QB, CB, LT, pass rusher) yet again?  It’s entirely possible.

Of course the most important question is, how will the Jets go about adding a quarterback?  The draft is a possibility, but with what will likely be close to $100 million in salary cap space, the Jets will look to sign a veteran quarterback before the draft arrives.  Assuming things play out that way, how do the Jets proceed; best player or biggest need?

If the Jets don’t trade down to add more picks, they’ll likely be looking at players such as Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson or Alabama part-time cornerback/part-time safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Adding Barkley to an offense with a veteran quarterback such as Kirk Cousins or Tyrod Taylor would make the Jets an infinitely better unit overnight.  However, in a class that’s so deep at running back, would Barkely in round 1 be that much better than Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb or Kerryon Johnson outside of the first round?  That’s the question the Jets would have to answer if it would mean passing on a top cornerback, offensive tackle or pass rusher.

As a football fan, it’s all but impossible to watch Nelson and not want him on your roster.  He’s a mauling specimen who is viewed by many as a top five talent, but one that will likely fall in the draft with three to four quarterbacks expected to go in the top five.

Fitzpatrick is another potential top-five player, but can the Jets afford to go defense in the first round for the ninth consecutive season and the eleventh time in twelve years (Mark Sanchez, 2009)?  Even after using their first and second round picks on a pair of defensive backs last season?  The only way the Jets don’t get killed by their fan base for going defense is if a player such as Bradley Chubb falls to sixth after a quarterback has been added.

History tells us Mike Maccagnan will take Barkley, Nelson or Fitzpatrick, but if he decides to make the most critical positions on the roster a top priority, Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward or Texas offensive tackle Connor Williams could be the name we hear called in round one.  Best player or biggest need, just hope it’s not a Calvin Pryor or Vernon Gholston type of bust.

 

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[TuscanyTile2]

I would be very surprised if Barkley were around at #6.  

[rangerous]

6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I would be very surprised if Barkley were around at #6.  

if barkley is gone then someone before the jets didn't pick a qb.  that could be good if they can't sign cousins.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, rangerous said:

if barkley is gone then someone before the jets didn't pick a qb.  that could be good if they can't sign cousins.

I would think Barkley and at least 3 QBs (Darnold, Rosen and Allen) will be gone before #6.  Not sure if there will be a 4th QB or maybe that guy Chubb off the board too.  Of course, there could also be other players that rise up the draft board (Davenport?)

[Larz]

If I had to guess,  regardless of what they said,  Leo was a BPA pick,  Lee and Adams were for bowles to get his defense going 

[Bocajetfan]

With all the holes the Jets have BPA and Need can look like one and the same. What is most needed is up for argument 

[RedBeardedSavage]

It certainly doesn't inspire much confidence in me that this GM has drafted a five-technique defensive lineman, an inside linebacker and a strong safety in three consecutive first rounds of the draft.  

Every situation is different; I'm not a fan of hard and fast rules or philosophies...  But at some point, we've got to spend high picks on one of the premium positions in the sport: quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback.  

 

[jetgreen13]

51 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

It certainly doesn't inspire much confidence in me that this GM has drafted a five-technique defensive lineman, an inside linebacker and a strong safety in three consecutive first rounds of the draft.  

Every situation is different; I'm not a fan of hard and fast rules or philosophies...  But at some point, we've got to spend high picks on one of the premium positions in the sport: quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback.  

 

if cousins doesn't take the money then maccagnan will draft a QB at 6 or successfully trades up to get one..

trading down would take balls, so i definitely don't see that happening..

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

It certainly doesn't inspire much confidence in me that this GM has drafted a five-technique defensive lineman, an inside linebacker and a strong safety in three consecutive first rounds of the draft.  

Every situation is different; I'm not a fan of hard and fast rules or philosophies...  But at some point, we've got to spend high picks on one of the premium positions in the sport: quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback.  

 

I am not a fan of the BPA philosophy in the first round unless it is one of the elite positions other than CB. CB does not offer value IMO until late in the first. And safety should NEVER been taken in the first.

[Lupz27]

10 hours ago, JetNation said:

History tells us Mike Maccagnan will take Barkley, Nelson or Fitzpatrick

This draft smells so much like you can basically pencil in Quenton Nelson as the Jets pick, safe can’t miss player right up Macc’s alley god for bid he ever takes a risk at a premium position over safe BPA at non premium positions.  Jets seem like an organization that basically says ok this QB I’m willing to take at our pick no matter what (reports say Jets would have drafted Trubisky at 6 if he was there), but if that 1 QB is gone it’s BPA all else can go to hell.  The fact that Hack, and Trubisky were #3 one season, and #1 the next tells me all I need to know about our QB scouting were probably fawked if we decided to take one anyways this season.  I’m so all over the place with this upcoming offseason, wish it was over already.

[jgb]

Just can’t see macc betting his career on Mayfield. Every draft so far he has gone highest consensus player in the first. It’s like Mel Kiper is our GM. If macc was a groundhog it would always be 6 more weeks of winter. Coward who is afraid to take any personal risk and take a guy “too early.”

[The Crusher]

We will give Cousins 150 million cold hard cash and draft Nelson. We could do worse. Much much worse. 

[Joe Jets fan]

54 minutes ago, jgb said:

Just can’t see macc betting his career on Mayfield. Every draft so far he has gone highest consensus player in the first. It’s like Mel Kiper is our GM. If macc was a groundhog it would always be 6 more weeks of winter. Coward who is afraid to take any personal risk and take a guy “too early.”

Ahh, so taking Hack in the 2nd round was not a risk?   Can’t have it both ways.  Just cause it was not a 1st round pick it was still taking a huge risk. 

[Grandy]

It won't lead us away from needs, because all the top players in the draft play positions we need.

If we get Kirk, taking the best player available is the best case scenario.

[Thai Jet]

This is a QB driven league. If we don't find the guy Mac wants in FA then we have to draft the best one available even if it means moving up a few spots to do so. What we do this off season will effect the franchise for the next 4-5 years. We HAVE to get it right.

[The Crusher]

58 minutes ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Ahh, so taking Hack in the 2nd round was not a risk?   Can’t have it both ways.  Just cause it was not a 1st round pick it was still taking a huge risk. 

It was idiocy and with the heat they got for it their next choice will be risk aversive . You dont get two of those as a GM. Hell. You shouldn’t get one. 

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Ahh, so taking Hack in the 2nd round was not a risk?   Can’t have it both ways.  Just cause it was not a 1st round pick it was still taking a huge risk. 

I still cringe when I remember that pick.

[Philc1]

Marcus Davenport will be both BPA and fill an enormous need for us

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Ahh, so taking Hack in the 2nd round was not a risk?   Can’t have it both ways.  Just cause it was not a 1st round pick it was still taking a huge risk. 

The Hackenberg Reach of’15 was Macc’s overreaction to  idiots (probably to include Woody) blasting him for not drafting Paxton Lynch

[CanadaSteve]

18 hours ago, rangerous said:

if barkley is gone then someone before the jets didn't pick a qb.  that could be good if they can't sign cousins.

If someone in front of us does not pick a QB it is because someone else has signed Cousins, leaving one of the top 4 QB prospects available to us.

 

[CanadaSteve]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

The Hackenberg Reach of’15 was Macc’s overreaction to  idiots (probably to include Woody) blasting him for not drafting Paxton Lynch

Its tough.  I was pissed that Mac did not draft Lynch when he fell that far to take Lee, a decent player, but not someone I thought was worthy when we needed a QB prospect.  However, in insight, perhaps Mac knew something we didn't about Lynch, because he is not looking like he will amount to much.

Still, Mac's inability to find talent at the QB and pass-rushing positions overshadows anything good he has done by finding some decent talent later in drafts/UDFA, and drafting Williams/Adams/Maye.

[August]

The best player available coincidentally is always a CB or a D lineman. 

[adb280z]

5 hours ago, August said:

The best player available coincidentally is always a CB or a D lineman. 

If only those guys actually turned out to be the best players.

[CanadienJetsFan]

With so many needs, the bpa strategy still works best.

But in the end, Macc's 1st draft pick will all come down whether to buy, or not to buy Cousins. 

[adb280z]

9 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

With so many needs, the bpa strategy still works best.

But in the end, Macc's 1st draft pick will all come down whether to buy, or not to buy Cousins. 

So if they don't sign Cousins and the BPA is a guard or another safety you take that instead of a QB?

[Augustiniak]

9 hours ago, The Crusher said:

We will give Cousins 150 million cold hard cash and draft Nelson. We could do worse. Much much worse. 

like giving cousins 150 million cold hard cash and drafting a cb in the first.  my fear is that they overpay cousins and then ignore offense again.  

[The Crusher]

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

like giving cousins 150 million cold hard cash and drafting a cb in the first.  my fear is that they overpay cousins and then ignore offense again.  

You match my negativity and raised it . Dam it Auggie

[Fantasy Island]

Nobody in their right mind believes McStupid can make a good draft pick in this draft.  History shows he will screw it up again.

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

Lee was not a BPA pick. Bowles wanted a Bucannon type LB. 

Macc has a grand total of 3 drafts. You would think that Maccagnan has been the GM for 15 years with the way people say that he sucks drafting quarterbacks and goes BPA in the first round. If he nails the QB pick this year, will people say that he is only has a 25% success rate on drafting a QB?

[jgb]

10 hours ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Ahh, so taking Hack in the 2nd round was not a risk?   Can’t have it both ways.  Just cause it was not a 1st round pick it was still taking a huge risk. 

I'm talking about his history in the first round. It's well-known that GMs approach different rounds differently because the rounds have different values. It's like I'd be more careful parking a Ferrari than a Toyota.

[Pcola]

Reading blogs from the people who cover the Browns, they are absolutely desperate for corners.  If they aren’t able to add at least a top end corner, these writers expect the Browns to take Fitzpatrick at 4.  

That means if we are able to sign Cousins and Cle, NYG, and Den go QB at 1, 2, & 5, it will come down to either Chubb the pass rusher or Barkley - whoever Indy doesn’t pick.

I think Chubb or Barkley would be a home run if we have already signed Cousins.  We could add Richburg and Fulton at C & G to shore up the OL and draft Chark WR from LSU in the second and the offense would be the most balanced and talented top to bottom than we’ve had in quite some time.

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Reading blogs from the people who cover the Browns, they are absolutely desperate for corners.  If they aren’t able to add at least a top end corner, these writers expect the Browns to take Fitzpatrick at 4.  

That means if we are able to sign Cousins and Cle, NYG, and Den go QB at 1, 2, & 5, it will come down to either Chubb the pass rusher or Barkley - whoever Indy doesn’t pick.

I think Chubb or Barkley would be a home run if we have already signed Cousins.  We could add Richburg and Fulton at C & G to shore up the OL and draft Chark WR from LSU in the second and the offense would be the most balanced and talented top to bottom than we’ve had in quite some time.

I hope Fitzpatrick is gone by 6 to eliminate the temptation for Macc.

[Sperm Edwards]

I kid around about it, but I think his whole BAP reputation is a myth resulting from Leonard Williams. Every other pick after him could easily be argued it filled a need, if not an immediate need at that.

The issue with him isn’t pure BAP vs need; I do believe he’s trying to marry that best combo of need + BAP.  The serious issue with him, in which he’s failed so miserably in team-building, is weighing is more need+BAP regardless of position vs.  need+BAP with a thumb on the scales with respect to positional importance (even if it means taking on a larger risk). 

It’s why he’s stayed pat at our high picks in particular, instead of pouncing on opportunities to trade up or down, and take positions we technically need but could do with by taking players 2+ rounds later (or FA outright). 

[jgb]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

I kid around about it, but I think his whole BAP reputation is a myth resulting from Leonard Williams. Every other pick after him could easily be argued it filled a need, if not an immediate need at that.

The issue with him isn’t pure BAP vs need; I do believe he’s trying to marry that best combo of need + BAP.  The serious issue with him, in which he’s failed so miserably in team-building, is weighing is more need+BAP regardless of position vs.  need+BAP with a thumb on the scales with respect to positional importance (even if it means taking on a larger risk). 

It’s why he’s stayed pat at our high picks in particular, instead of pouncing on opportunities to trade up or down, and take positions we technically need but could do with by taking players 2+ rounds later (or FA outright). 

To me the pattern is to take a guy who slips from the consensus ranking. He's bargain hunting. Not a terrible strat, I suppose, but if going need he would've taken a QB in the first one of these years so there is more to it than that.

[Sperm Edwards]

On 2/18/2018 at 7:55 PM, jgb said:

To me the pattern is to take a guy who slips from the consensus ranking. He's bargain hunting. Not a terrible strat, I suppose, but if going need he would've taken a QB in the first one of these years so there is more to it than that.

Totally, that’s a significant part of it as well. He goes after what he thinks are sure things in round 1 so he doesn’t have to potentially explain himself in taking a bust.

Meanwhile who gives a crap about the BAP 300-lb DE, ILB, and SS when the team’s lost 23 of its last 33?

The reality is even if one of those 3 ended up being a bust as a full-time starter, they all play positions where they can be rotated on & off the field and it’s easier to sweep under the rug. Now compare that to a QB or offensive linemen — positions where you’re either starting or you’re standing on the sideline with your helmet off every week. 

As far as the bargain thing, it also rears its head when it comes time for dealmaking in round 1. There have been good and great offers and he’s passed on all of them to take his safe pick(s). A team with all the holes the Jets had in April of 2017 had no business taking a safety at #6 unless he’s the kind of talent that comes along once a decade, and only slips that much due to his position, or if it’s a horrid draft class up top like 2013. 

So yes generally I think if he could trade up for one of these “sure thing” talents he’d do it, but he’s even shied away from that (crawling back into his shell instead of moving up for Tunsil, who (an hour or so earlier) was expected to go #3 at the latest. He’s a big, fat p***y. 

That's why he's decided a hole at QB vs a hole at safety doesn't automatically go to the QB because the safety - particularly if the safety has a higher ranking - is the safer choice.