De-valuing of the WR in the NFL. Why the Jets should NOT take a WR at pick #11

[RichardTodd27]

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said:

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

 Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

Way to cherry pick the 16’ Class out of the bunch. None of these prospects were half the caliber that Judy or CeeDee are but carry on.

[Augustiniak]

maybe more than any other position, wrs are products of their qb and their overall offense.  wrs need a lot of things to go right to be productive - they need a qb, a line that can protect the qb, and often they need a decent running game to take the pressure off double coverage.  

[whodeawhodat]

in a passing league, wrs are overvalued? hrmm.....

[joewilly12]

PatsFanTX is this you. 

[slimjasi]

All this means is that, if the Jets pass on a WR at 11 for an OL, it's not the end of the world because they could potentially land a legit WR prospect later in the draft. 

This doesn't mean that you pass on Lamb or Judy no matter what. If you think Lamb is the best player available and you need a WR, you take him. 

[Patriot Killa]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

All this means is that, if the Jets pass on a WR at 11 for an OL, it's not the end of the world because they could potentially land a legit WR prospect later in the draft. 

It’s valid but I just hate how he cherry picked 16’s class. Easily the worst. Was not a good way to exemplify his point.

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

All this means is that, if the Jets pass on a WR at 11 for an OL, it's not the end of the world because they could potentially land a legit WR prospect later in the draft. 

This doesn't mean that you pass on Lamb or Judy no matter what. If you think Lamb is the best player available and you need a WR, you take him. 

i think the BAP philosophy finally needs to incorporate need.  it's still hard to envision a scenario now where the jets don't stay at 11 and do anything but take the best OT.  they have 3 picks on day 2, they can address wr, cb and either rb or OL again.  i would be very upset if mccagnan were drafting b/c we'd watch other teams stock up on offensive talent while we took DTs and cbs.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, Patriot Killa said:

It’s valid but I just hate how he cherry picked 16’s class. Easily the worst. Was not a good way to exemplify his point.

Right. 

There's no doubt that WR is a saturated position, but it's still an impact position (along with QB, edge rusher, corner, and offensive tackle). So, if you think Lamb/Judy are studs and you need a WR, you take one of them!

[slimjasi]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

i think the BAP philosophy finally needs to incorporate need.  it's still hard to envision a scenario now where the jets don't stay at 11 and do anything but take the best OT.  they have 3 picks on day 2, they can address wr, cb and either rb or OL again.  i would be very upset if mccagnan were drafting b/c we'd watch other teams stock up on offensive talent while we took DTs and cbs.  

I'd love it if we got a good OT prospect, so I basically agree. 

The only thing I will add (as I have done elsewhere) is that it depends on what happens in FA. 

For instance, if we sign 2-3  good OL pieces in FA and let Robby go, I am going to probably want a WR at 11. 

[Untouchable]

Everyone has been saying this about the RB position for years. Or that these athletic, run first QB’s are the future...

Then we all watched as Derrick Henry sh*t all over the Ravens and Lamar was sent home packing right out of the gate.

Yeah, some teams might be able to find a stud WR or RB in the mid-late rounds...but the Jets sure as hell can’t.

If the 3 top OT’s are all off the board at #11 and either Jeudy or Lamb falls into your lap, you take them without a moments hesitation.

I have no idea why so many people are acting like we’re completely screwed beyond belief if we don’t take an OT in the 1st round. Is that my preferred strategy? Absolutely. But I’m not taking an OL at #11 just for the sake of doing so.

[RoadFan]

WRs aren't very helpful if the OL stinks.

The Falcons are a perfect example.  Julio and Ridley.  Matt Ryan has no running game and is constantly picking himself up off the turf.  

Texans are a decent example also.  A below average running game.  Several weeks where Watson gets beat up.  A handful of weeks when Hopkins was unproductive.   They were always better with Fuller, granted...

How about the Bucs?

Priority one is to protect the QB.  Throwing for 300+ every week doesnt earn teams a 1st round bye.  Balance does.

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Right. 

There's no doubt that WR is a saturated position, but it's still an impact position (along with QB, edge rusher, corner, and offensive tackle). So, if you think Lamb/Judy are studs and you need a WR, you take one of them!

Agreed. I think post-FA is going to tell use exactly where we need to go with the first round pick tbh. I’m not sweating it too much. WR or OL should be there.

[peebag]

Go back and watch a few games from this past season.  There are key moments where if Sam had an extra 1/2 ->1 second of time to throw, he would have had monster games.

I'd love me some more weaponz but get me some protection.

[The Crusher]

41 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

Moar safeties? 

[The Crusher]

Just now, peebag said:

Go back and watch a few games from this past season.  There are key moments where if Sam had an extra 1/2 ->1 second of time to throw, he would have had monster games.

I'd love me some more weaponz but get me some protection.

I honestly think you have to go O line in the first. You make a good point. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, peebag said:

Go back and watch a few games from this past season.  There are key moments where if Sam had an extra 1/2 ->1 second of time to throw, he would have had monster games.

I'd love me some more weaponz but get me some protection.

this, and then consider how pathetic the running game was.  draft OL and draft a faster rb who can catch.  this will fix the offense more than lamb or jeudy.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Agreed. I think post-FA is going to tell use exactly where we need to go with the first round pick tbh. I’m not sweating it too much. WR or OL should be there.

Exactly. If the top OL prospects are gone by 11, that makes it very likely that either Lamb or Judy is on the board. The same thing is true the other way around. 

There are ten spots ahead of us. You figure 3 QBs (Burrow, Tua, Herbert) and Chase Young are absolute locks to go in the top 10. That leaves 6 slots ahead of us with Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, Judy, Simmons (S), Brown (DT), Okudah (CB), and Kinlaw (DT) still on the board.

Hence, we would have to get incredibly unlucky to miss out on all of Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, and Judy. 

 

[jetstream23]

34 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

in a passing league, wrs are overvalued? hrmm.....

Tom Brady checks in to this thread to say, "I basically kissed Antonio Brown's ass and did everything I could to keep that psycho on my team because WRs are so important."

[jetstream23]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Exactly. If the top OL prospects are gone by 11, that makes it very likely that either Lamb or Judy is on the board. The same thing is true the other way around. 

There are ten spots ahead of us. You figure 3 QBs (Burrow, Tua, Herbert) and Chase Young are absolute locks to go in the top 10. That leaves 6 slots ahead of us with Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, Judy, Simmons (S), Brown (DT), Okudah (CB), and Kinlaw (DT) still on the board.

Hence, we would have to get incredibly unlucky to miss out on all of Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, and Judy. 

 

You've been reading my posts in the Draft Forum.

 

 

 

 

[Beerfish]

Yeah, lets take DTs, safeties, and ilbs instead.

[Wonderboy]

OL. That is all. You want a WR, trade Adams, grab 2 OL in 1st round, then get a WR in round 2. There will be plenty available prospects. 

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

You've been reading my posts in the Draft Forum.

 

 

 

 

I think Miami is almost definitely going to take Herbert or Tua at 5. (Probably Tua if he gets a clean medical report)

[bitonti]

take it from someone who writes 2000 words every week on the NFL offensive line: 

top shelf WR like Mike Evans, Nuk Hopkins or Julio Jones make more of an impact on who wins the game than any sort of amazing offensive line

a guy that Sam can throw the ball to in 50/50 coverage and he still bodies out the CB1 to make the catch

they do not have that player and Jets fans forget what it looks like 

You know who has an awesome line? the Eagles. They didn't have enough weapons, especially at WR down the stretch. The Ravens have a great line, again they fell behind and their bums like Willie Snead didn't get separation. 

Line is important, don't get me wrong. But there is no "extra second" in the NFL to be gained. Sam (or whoever) is going to have to make decisions in 2.5 seconds or less.  this is a passing league and the Titans ground and pound "works" every 10 years or so. Most of the time its going to be a high powered offense leading the way and most of the time there needs to be WR1 production. 

the Jets already have a 3rd down slot guy in Crowder. But Robby's going to walk.

if there's a sick run on OL and they are looking at a Deandre Hopkins style WR at 11 or OT 4, they should take that WR and hopefully find the linemen in rd 2 and 3 

In fact they might need 2 Wr when this draft is all said and done, that's how bad the WR need is if you actually look at the roster 

[slimjasi]

10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

take it from someone who writes 2000 words every week on the NFL offensive line: 

top shelf WR like Mike Evans, Nuk Hopkins or Julio Jones make more of an impact on who wins the game than any sort of amazing offensive line

a guy that Sam can throw the ball to in 50/50 coverage and he still bodies out the CB1 to make the catch

they do not have that player and Jets fans forget what it looks like 

You know who has an awesome line? the Eagles. They didn't have enough weapons, especially at WR down the stretch. The Ravens have a great line, again they fell behind and their bums like Willie Snead didn't get separation. 

Line is important, don't get me wrong. But there is no "extra second" in the NFL to be gained. Sam (or whoever) is going to have to make decisions in 2.5 seconds or less.  this is a passing league and the Titans ground and pound "works" every 10 years or so. Most of the time its going to be a high powered offense leading the way and most of the time there needs to be WR1 production. 

the Jets already have a 3rd down slot guy in Crowder. But Robby's going to walk.

if there's a sick run on OL and they are looking at a Deandre Hopkins style WR at 11 or OT 4, they should take that WR and hopefully find the linemen in rd 2 and 3 

In fact they might need 2 Wr when this draft is all said and done, that's how bad the WR need is if you actually look at the roster 

This is all fair and if they let Robby walk, they will absolutely need to pickup two premiere WRs and the FA market is thin. 

[ElBarrioJets]

Just take the offensive tackle. These guys don't get to FA. 

[jetstream23]

22 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I think Miami is almost definitely going to take Herbert or Tua at 5. (Probably Tua if he gets a clean medical report)

I heard Bill Polian on NFL Radio on SiriusXM this morning.  He predicted that the 3 QBs are all gone by #6.  He said, "there's a lot of talk that San Diego will go QB at #6."

Most people don't see Miami passing on Tua at #5, especially since they have several more picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds to get the OLinemen and defenders they need.

[New York Mick]

You don’t pass on a potential star at WR for a potential jag at OT.

I’d rather them draft the best OC or OG in the draft then take a chance on a lower ranked OT if Lamb or Jeudy aren’t available. 

[bitonti]

4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I heard Bill Polian on NFL Radio on SiriusXM this morning.  He predicted that the 3 QBs are all gone by #6.  He said, "there's a lot of talk that San Diego will go QB at #6."

Most people don't see Miami passing on Tua at #5, especially since they have several more picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds to get the OLinemen and defenders they need.

just my 02 cents there will be 3 QBs taken but it will be Love instead of Tua, (who will be more like a Lamar style 1.32 pick due to injury)

[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I heard Bill Polian on NFL Radio on SiriusXM this morning.  He predicted that the 3 QBs are all gone by #6.  He said, "there's a lot of talk that San Diego will go QB at #6."

Most people don't see Miami passing on Tua at #5, especially since they have several more picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds to get the OLinemen and defenders they need.

I think Polian could definitely be right. That's just the way it is in recent times. 

The QBs are always the hot commodity. 

[HawkeyeJet]

I've opined for years that WR is the most overvalued position by fans in the NFL. There have been a lot of successful "roster builds" that don't include an elite level receiver.

That said, if a OL worthy of that pick is not there,  and on of Juedy or Lamb are, taken them.

[TheClashFan]

WR is definitely a need, but one to go in the 2nd or 3rd round for.  Get the LT first, then in the second the best WR or OL on the board ("best" as defined by the Jets scouting, of course).  If the Jets go WR in the 2nd, then the best OL on the board early in the third.

After that, go BPA (among OL, WR, CB, and Edge) with the second 3rd round pick. 

Even if the Jets lose Anderson and sign an OL, LT should still be the first pick over WR.

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, RichardTodd27 said:

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

Took this relatively serious until I got to this part. 

If anyone knew what Thomas, Tyreek, etc would become there is a solid chance all of them are first round picks. Blame the evaluation not the position.

[jgb]

4 WRs in first round last two years doesn’t seem absurdly low

[peebag]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

In fact they might need 2 Wr when this draft is all said and done, that's how bad the WR need is if you actually look at the roster 

Unfortunately, both O-line and WR corp are horrific.

F**k you Mike Macags