Facts Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 hours ago, The Crusher said: *when You were supposed to make me feel better and convince me that were were going to hit the over. Not agree!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootballLove Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Vegas couldn't care less how many games the Jets win. Vegas' only concern is setting the line so there's even money on both sides. They take their cut, then use Peter to pay Paul. Bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Facts said: You were supposed to make me feel better and convince me that were were going to hit the over. Not agree!!! Technically I was correcting you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, FootballLove said: Vegas couldn't care less how many games the Jets win. Vegas' only concern is setting the line so there's even money on both sides. They take their cut, then use Peter to pay Paul. Bank. Exactly. And the books will juice it to make sure the betting money and payouts produce a profit even if they set the line too low and more people will jump on the over. I guess people are all over the over 5.5 on this so that's why the line is about -150. ($150 bet gets $250 return, $100 profit). Whether you're a Jets fan or not that's a very bad bet AFAIC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Jet9 said: Fade The Public. This is the way to make money in sportsbook It's not going to be comfortable It's not going to be popular But the house always wins Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, FootballLove said: Vegas couldn't care less how many games the Jets win. Vegas' only concern is setting the line so there's even money on both sides. They take their cut, then use Peter to pay Paul. Bank. This is true for spread games. The season over unders are designed to separate Homers from their money on over bets. They do not get equal action on the unders and that's priced in too 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Smith Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 They juiced the over immediately following the draft. Indicates Vegas believes we go 6+. I expect the number will jump to 6.5 if we make it out of training camp without major injuries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe W. Namath Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Everyone but the majority of jet fans can see what Joe Douglas is building here. Of course its the most popular over bet. We have arrived Jet Fans. Its happening!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinc855 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 To lose that bet means the Jets only won 5 games. This place will burn down if that happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fullblast Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 No one's projecting the Jets to win anything until they prove they have a QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, bitonti said: This is the way to make money in sportsbook It's not going to be comfortable It's not going to be popular But the house always wins Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all I'm relatively new to it (3 years). I dove in head first but have learned A LOT. This is one of them. Also that the sports you 'know' don't necessarily reflect how well you bet. I'm good at hockey and it's my favorite sport. That said, I love football but I am not very good so I rarely bet it. I'm very good at college basketball and while I like it, I don't like it the way I like the other 2 and baseball. Strange stuff. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, J_Smith said: They juiced the over immediately following the draft. Indicates Vegas believes we go 6+. I expect the number will jump to 6.5 if we make it out of training camp without major injuries Good point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jet9 said: I'm relatively new to it (3 years). I dove in head first but have learned A LOT. This is one of them. Also that the sports you 'know' don't necessarily reflect how well you bet. I'm good at hockey and it's my favorite sport. That said, I love football but I am not very good so I rarely bet it. I'm very good at college basketball and while I like it, I don't like it the way I like the other 2 and baseball. Strange stuff. Sports betting is the most peculiar thing. I try not to let my NY fandom influence the bets, but I'm sure I succumb at times. Believe it or not, I do best at betting MLB. I was burned so badly by NFL last season (a bit worse than even for NBA and college hoops). I had a good bankroll from MLB up considerably over the season... only to see my NFL bets strip it down to a pittance and then have the NBA and college hoops send me into the blackhole. Thankful MLB is back. So far doing very well with it. It's so much easier than all the others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Dcat said: Sports betting is the most peculiar thing. I try not to let my NY fandom influence the bets, but I'm sure I succumb at times. Believe it or not, I do best at betting MLB. I was burned so badly by NFL last season (a bit worse than even for NBA and college hoops). I had a good bankroll from MLB up considerably over the season... only to see my NFL bets strip it down to a pittance and then have the NBA and college hoops send me into the blackhole. Thankful MLB is back. So far doing very well with it. It's so much easier than all the others. Same. NFL killed me early last year. Did ok on C-USA and Sun Belt but overall still not great in CFB. This is the first year I'm really taking MLB as serious as NHL and CBB and so far so good. Long season though. It's a grind. ETA: I royally suck at golf matchups so I knocked that off too, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 6 hours ago, Anthony Jet said: If this is true how come the line hasn’t been adjusted? Probably because this is one of those instances where everyone thinks they are outsmarting Vegas but they really aren't because nobody does 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 When do I get paid, when the jets exceed the wins or end of the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waka Flocka Flacco Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, bitonti said: This is the way to make money in sportsbook It's not going to be comfortable It's not going to be popular But the house always wins Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all They shouldn't be betting at all because sports is too hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said: They shouldn't be betting at all because sports is too hard. Rooting for the Jets is hard, and yet, here we are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, Larz said: When do I get paid, when the jets exceed the wins or end of the year? After the regular season Jan 9 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet2020 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 5 hours ago, varjet said: Every year the teams that are predicted to be “good” underperform, and vice versa. 6 wins is worth a modest bet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big_Slick Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 The house always has an advantage and always wins in the long run. Forget the odds and just look at the win total. If Becton is out more than half the season and Zach doesn't take a step up combined with the brutal schedule Jets will be fortunate to win 5 games. On the other hand, if Becton comes back motivated and Zach plays like a top 15 QB eight wins is very possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Jet9 said: Same. NFL killed me early last year. Did ok on C-USA and Sun Belt but overall still not great in CFB. This is the first year I'm really taking MLB as serious as NHL and CBB and so far so good. Long season though. It's a grind. ETA: I royally suck at golf matchups so I knocked that off too, lol. Know your good and sh*tty bullpens. Starters are paramount, but I'll stick to 'first 5' if the bullpen can't be trusted (like last years' Angels' pen). This is the one sport, where knowing your stats pays big dividends. You need to know which teams kick the crap out of lefties... which do poorly byt hem. Same for righties. It's a stat festival and is not ruined by the umps the way the NFL is by their refs. It's just far easier to make a smart bet in MLB based on pitching staffs and opposing hitting s those types of ptichers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Dcat said: Know your good and sh*tty bullpens. Starters are paramount, but I'll stick to 'first 5' if the bullpen can't be trusted (like last years' Angels' pen). This is the one sport, where knowing your stats pays big dividends. You need to know which teams kick the crap out of lefties... which do poorly byt hem. Same for righties. It's a stat festival and is not ruined by the umps the way the NFL is by their refs. It's just far easier to make a smart bet in MLB based on pitching staffs and opposing hitting s those types of ptichers. Yes! I catch myself betting 1st 5 more often than not lately. Also I take the ML over the spread on 1st 5. Push is way better than Loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said: Everyone but the majority of jet fans can see what Joe Douglas is building here. Of course its the most popular over bet. We have arrived Jet Fans. Its happening!!!!!!!!!!! First 9 games 3-6 Last 8 games 4-4 I see a 7-10 team at worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe W. Namath Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bronx said: First 9 games 3-6 Last 8 games 4-4 I see a 7-10 team at worst. Ill break it down in quarters: 1st 4: 2-2 Beating the Ravens and Steelers Next 4: 2-2 Beating Miami and NE Next 4: 1-3 only beating Chicago Last 5: 4-1 Beating Lions, Jags, Seahawks and Dolphins I see us at 9-8 and if the ball bounces our way a few times, a 10 or 11 win season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waka Flocka Flacco Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 3 hours ago, bitonti said: Rooting for the Jets is hard, and yet, here we are If you're not independently capable of making a living doing math, sports betting is the most -ev way there is to try to monetize a hobby. If you are independently capable of making a living doing math, it is probably somewhat less -ev than prostitution. Rooting for the Jets isn't that hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said: If you're not independently capable of making a living doing math, sports betting is the most -ev way there is to try to monetize a hobby. If you are independently capable of making a living doing math, it is probably somewhat less -ev than prostitution. Rooting for the Jets isn't that hard. I make a living doing math and if this is a zero joke then yep that's pretty accurate for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 14 hours ago, Bronx said: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Jet Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 6 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said: Probably because this is one of those instances where everyone thinks they are outsmarting Vegas but they really aren't because nobody does 11 hours ago, ECURB said: Vegas thinks they will win 4 games? Maybe, but that’s not usually how lines work. Bookies doesn’t usually choose sides, they adjust to have action both ways If I had to guess, I’d say the under has significant action also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isired Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Meanwhile, Vegas has the Giants up to 7.5 wins. I would imagine some of that has to do with playing in the NFC but that still a full 2 games (admittedly just a gambling projection) better than us. But both teams were awful last year (picked 4th and 5th overall) and both teams had great drafts. The Jets probably had a better offseason overall than the Giants but both teams did make major improvements. But they Giants are projected 2 games better than us. Crazy! Btw, all of these lines have the half point in them so I guess it's a "whole win step" (e.g. our next option from 5.5 wouldn't be 6, but rather 6.5). https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/ New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season - 4) New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season - 4)2022 Strength of Schedule (based on 2021 W-L)1.) Rams — .5672.) Cardinals — .5433.) Bengals — .5364.) Buccaneers — .535T-5.) 49ers — .533T-5.) Chiefs — .533T-7.) Raiders — .528T-7.) Saints — .5289.) Falcons — .52410.) Chargers — .51911.) Seahawks — .517T-12.) Steelers — .512T-12.) Panthers — .512T-12) Bills — .51215.) Broncos —.50916.) Patriots —.498T-17.) Jets — .495T-17.) Browns — .49519.) Texans — .48820.) Vikings — .48421.) Dolphins — .48122.) Packers —.47823.) Ravens — .474T-24.) Bears — .471T-24.) Titans —.471T-26.) Jaguars — .469T-26.) Colts —.46928.) Lions — .46729.) Giants — .46530.) Eagles —.464T-31.) Commanders — .462T-31.) Cowboys — .462Previous year's W-L is not always highly predictive, but it's all we really have And meanwhile, the AFC East has improved as well, for the most part, so 2021 W-L, so you could argue the AFC West and East are both a likely stronger than their 2021 records suggest.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawk Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Oh great... Louie the Bat is going to be visiting out biggest difference maker and doing his best Tonya Harding impersonation... I have no idea who the difference maker will be on this team, but someone is frigged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAD_Brooklyn Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 It seems like the odds have changed drastically to the point I missed the window to bet. I may still bet on us making the playoffs and for Chase to win MVP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag928 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 It seems like the odds have changed drastically to the point I missed the window to bet. I may still bet on us making the playoffs and for Chase to win MVP. DraftKings has a boost to +110 jets over 5.5 wins. Free money boys. Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jetlag928 said: DraftKings has a boost to +110 jets over 5.5 wins. Free money boys. Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app That's a good bet. Do you the $$ limit on the boost and what are the current pre boost odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag928 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 That's a good bet. Do you the $$ limit on the boost and what are the current pre boost odds? It’s -160 without the boost. $25 max bet unfortunately. Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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