Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[The Crusher]

13 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

step 1 of 10.

 

I think once Aaron and Nate finish their secret handshake it’s pretty much a done  deal. 

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, batman10023 said:

do you think a first (13) is definite?

My opinion:  Greenbay gets this years #2 and a conditional 2024 that could be as high as a 1st.

[JetPotato]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I should be clear, I have no idea what WILL happen.

I'm just having a very hard believing the Jets will get A. Rodgers for what amounts to a bag of footballs and his salary costs.

A 2nd and conditional 3rd (rise to 1st) is just not alot of compensation for a HOF-level Franchise QB, old and fickle though he may be.  Sure there is risk, but not that much risk over the term we (the Jets) likely expect him to play (2 seasons).

I thought early on it was going to take two 1sts, the 2023 and 2024, at minimum, and likely some third pick somewhere, a midrounder.

Our resident insiders seem to think the comp is MUCH less.  But I'd expect something like:

1. 2023 1st Round Pick (#13)
2. 2024 2nd Round Pick (Conditional, rises to 1st if X, Y, Z met, games played, doesn't retire by X date, makes playoffs maybe).
3. 2024 4th Round Pick.

That, that's a deal where I'd go "yeah, I expected that much, ouch, but ok".

If we legit get him for much less, that's pretty amazing IMO.

What leverage do the Packers have that leads you to that conclusion? 

When you trade for a player, no matter who it is, it's about leverage. Rodgers' playing history in this case doesn't supercede the additional circumstances, like his huge contract, the fact that he's anywhere from 0-3 years from retirement, only 1 team is in the running and that GB simply wants and needs to unload him to start the Love era.

This whole time I've thought multiple (over even 1) first round picks is nuts. The Packers have basically two choices: comply with Rodgers' trade request (which looks limited to one team), or watch him retire and get nothing at all.

Way I see it, their only leverage is WHEN the trade happens. JD wants it done now, not after June 1, so he needs to account for that. But at end of the day, the Jets and Rodgers still have GB over a barrel a bit.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Dcat said:

My opinion:  Greenbay gets this years #2 and a conditional 2023 that could be as high as a 1st.

That makes a lot of sense.  I could see douglas pushing hard to change it to this year’s 3 rather than a 2.  But either way if that trade happens i expect the jets to trade out of 13 and get more picks, since they already don’t have a 6th or 7th.  

[Trotter]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I should be clear, I have no idea what WILL happen.

I'm just having a very hard believing the Jets will get A. Rodgers for what amounts to a bag of footballs and his salary costs.

A 2nd and conditional 3rd (rise to 1st) is just not alot of compensation for a HOF-level Franchise QB, old and fickle though he may be.  Sure there is risk, but not that much risk over the term we (the Jets) likely expect him to play (2 seasons).

I thought early on it was going to take two 1sts, the 2023 and 2024, at minimum, and likely some third pick somewhere, a midrounder.

Our resident insiders seem to think the comp is MUCH less.  But I'd expect something like:

1. 2023 1st Round Pick (#13)
2. 2024 2nd Round Pick (Conditional, rises to 1st if X, Y, Z met, games played, doesn't retire by X date, makes playoffs maybe).
3. 2024 4th Round Pick.

That, that's a deal where I'd go "yeah, I expected that much, ouch, but ok".

If we legit get him for much less, that's pretty amazing IMO.

Your assessment might not be far off - but this is where JD seems to shine. His past history on deals with Darnold and Adams gives us hope that he will find a way to reduce the burden on draft comp and get creative.

I know many on here don't like him and feel if he does not get Rodgers he is a failure, but I actually have a positive feeling with him driving this.

Football Gods - lets go.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

What leverage do the Packers have that leads you to that conclusion?

Their worst case is they retain Rodgers and play him in 2023.  That's hardly a bad outcome.

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

When you trade for a player, no matter who it is, it's about leverage.

So what leverage do the JETS have? 

Best as I can see, we have absolutely no leverage at all, and look like a desperate team in dire need with few equal options available to us.

If you're seeing some special leverage we possess that I'm not, please educate me here....

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

Rodgers' playing history in this case doesn't supercede the additional circumstances, like his huge contract

All non-rookie franchise QB's get huge contracts.  Danial Jones just got 40 million a year ffs.

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

, the fact that he's anywhere from 0-3 years from retirement

Most QB's get 3-4 year deals.  You don't make the trade if the expected retirement # is 0-1.  And you find that out by talking to Rodgers.

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

, only 1 team is in the running

Says who?  Only one team desperate enough to send their entire front office to meet him and grovel while tweeting about it, yes. 

We don't know who else has expressed interest.

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

and that GB simply wants and needs to unload him to start the Love era.

There is no "need" here.  Nor is Love so amazingly great that he simply MUST play.  

Again, Jets fans are telling themselves ALOT of things they WANT to believe, and ignoring the real facts here.  

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

This whole time I've thought multiple (over even 1) first round picks is nuts. The Packers have basically two choices: comply with Rodgers' trade request (which looks limited to one team), or watch him retire and get nothing at all.

Way I see it, their only leverage is WHEN the trade happens. JD wants it done now, not after June 1, so he needs to account for that. But at end of the day, the Jets and Rodgers still have GB over a barrel a bit.

Like I said, we'll see. 

Trader JD gets exec of the year on the spot if he gets Rodgers to play for 2 seasons (or more) for a upper-mid-rounder and a conditional 1st down the road only.

[extmenace]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Their worst case is they retain Rodgers and play him in 2023.  That's hardly a bad outcome.

 

That can’t happen if you’re the packers. They have Jordan love, they drafted him with a first rounder. His 5th year option has to be decided by this time next year. They drafted the kid to be the future, can they really give him his 5th year without him ever being the guy? He has to play in 2023 and there is no way Rodgers rides the bench. The packers HAVE to move on from Rodgers. 
 

the draft compensation, that’s going to entirely count on where Rodgers decides he wants to go. If Rodgers says, I want to only play for the jets, the packers have zero leverage. They’ll have to take the best we can offer. If he says, I’ll play for either the jets or the raiders, now the two teams have to bid against each other. If he only picks the jets, I’d be shocked if a first rounder was involved knowing how this organization feels about draft capital.

[Jetsfan80]

16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Their worst case is they retain Rodgers and play him in 2023.  That's hardly a bad outcome.

It kind of is when they want to hand the keys (for better or worse) to Jordan Love.  They can't really be paying BOTH of them, and Love being a FA at the end of the season is part of the issue there:  How can they hand Love an extension at the end of the season in confidence without some more datapoints to rely on?

[sourceworx]

20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So what leverage do the JETS have? 

Best as I can see, we have absolutely no leverage at all, and look like a desperate team in dire need with few equal options available to us.

If you're seeing some special leverage we possess that I'm not, please educate me here....

I agree that the Jets have no leverage.  Green Bay doesn't either.

Rodgers has all of the leverage. He can hang retirement (and the massive cap charge that comes with it) over the Packers' heads if he doesn't get what he wants. My guess is this is why the Jets flew out to him to meet. They're probably doing quite the sell job right now. Because if they convince him that the Jets are the team he wants to play for, then the leverage Rodgers has works in their favor in trade negotiations.

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, extmenace said:

That can’t happen if you’re the packers. They have Jordan love, they drafted him with a first rounder. His 5th year option has to be decided by this time next year.

Actually they need to make that call by May of THIS year, as that is the deadline.  And I'm sure Rodgers' presence or departure will have an impact on whether they decide to exercise it.

[bla bla bla]

44 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Has anyone actually looked at the size of Bakhtiari's current contract? Just wondering how the Jets would manage not one but two massive contracts without imploding. And Bakhtiari has struggled with injuries. Pass. 

2023 - $15m

2024 - $21m

I'd imagine this contract would get reworked as well but the Jets can 100% pay this with Rodgers only hitting our cap for $15m

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It kind of is when they want to hand the keys (for better or worse) to Jordan Love.  They can't really be paying BOTH of them, and Love being a FA at the end of the season is part of the issue there:  How can they hand Love an extension at the end of the season in confidence without some more datapoints to rely on?

I think Jets fans vastly over-rate how invested GB is in Jordan Love (also how good Love is as a prospect too) now, if Rodgers hadn't been both hurt and disgruntled this season, there is no trade or trade talk happening now.

Like I said, we'll see.   I could easily see us paying alot more than rumoured, or worse, being strung along and getting nothing while other QB's go elsewhere. a la Carr.

Clearly I HOPE you all are right.  Getting him cheap, having him play two seasons minimum, finally having some competent QB play, all that is great.  I too want that.  But I'm not going to pretend we, the QB desperate groveling begging team, have some actual leverage here, we don't.  None at all.  We do have trader JD, who has been amazing at trades tho, so who knows.

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I think Jets fans vastly over-rate how invested GB is in Jordan Love now, if Rodgers hadn't been both hurt and disgruntled this season, there is no trade or trade talk happening now.

Like I said, we'll see.   I could easily see us paying alot more than rumoured, or worse, being strung along and getting nothing while other QB's go elsewhere. a la Carr.

Clearly I HOPE you all are right.  Getting him cheap, having him play two seasons minimum, finally having some competent QB play, all that is great.  I too want that.  But I'm not going to pretend we, the QB desperate groveling begging team, have some actual leverage here, we don't.  None at all.  We do have trader JD, who has been amazing at trades tho, so who knows.

 

Maybe.  But I mean, they used a 1st round pick on the guy and presumably have invested in developing him since then.  Much like Rodgers did when he arrived in the league, he's been sitting and waiting for a while now for his shot at the QB1 job.  They at least need to explore what they have, no? 

What do you think their plan at QB by say, 2024 would be otherwise?  

[bla bla bla]

11 minutes ago, extmenace said:

That can’t happen if you’re the packers. They have Jordan love, they drafted him with a first rounder. His 5th year option has to be decided by this time next year. They drafted the kid to be the future, can they really give him his 5th year without him ever being the guy? He has to play in 2023 and there is no way Rodgers rides the bench. The packers HAVE to move on from Rodgers. 

Love's 5th year option needs to be exercised by May 1st this year. Even more reason to take Rodgers dead cap hit this season.

[bla bla bla]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Maybe.  But I mean, they used a 1st round pick on the guy and presumably have invested in him since then.  Much like Rodgers did when he arrived in the league, he's been sitting and waiting for a while now for his shot at the QB1 job.  They at least need to explore what they have, no? 

What do you think their plan at QB by say, 2024 would be otherwise?  

Not just a 1st round pick, they traded up to get Love

[Morrissey]

All the reporting coming out of the combine has been emphatic in that the Packers are done and ready to move on from Aaron Rodgers.

[bla bla bla]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It kind of is when they want to hand the keys (for better or worse) to Jordan Love.  They can't really be paying BOTH of them, and Love being a FA at the end of the season is part of the issue there:  How can they hand Love an extension at the end of the season in confidence without some more datapoints to rely on?

Not to mention all reports pointing to Love demanding a trade if Rodgers stays. I don't think there is a situation where Love and Rodgers are on that roster.

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Love's 5th year option needs to be exercised by May 1st this year. Even more reason to take Rodgers dead cap hit this season.

Love is reportedly going to demand a trade if Rodgers is back. I read that a while back. If true I'm sure the Packers don't want to lose out on their investment.

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Maybe.  But I mean, they used a 1st round pick on the guy and presumably have invested in developing him since then.  Much like Rodgers did when he arrived in the league, he's been sitting and waiting for a while now for his shot at the QB1 job.  They at least need to explore what they have, no? 

What do you think their plan at QB by say, 2024 would be otherwise?  

Oh don't get me wrong, I think GB will be very happy to dump Rodgers 50 million/year if they can.  It kickstarts their rebuild.

But if they can't, or can't get the right comp. for such a player, their worst case is still tenable.  Play Rodgers one more year, he retires or gets traded after, then transition to Love.  They can afford it for a single year if they believe in Love, and up his 5th year option.  Not like they have a ton of other high-cost talent at current.  Hence why they need more/better picks, they're borderline a rebuild team at current.

I'd also wager GB has heard from more than just us about Rodgers.  Maybe not to the "speak to him" stage yet, but again, I don't see GB being in the same rush WE are.  

If we fail to get Rodgers, and fail to get him BEFORE free agency, we seriously risk missing out at QB completely in 2023.  That's  fatal for Saleh/JD in NY.  Being strung along IS the big risk here, because GB and Rodgers can both afford to wait/hope the market expands.  We can't.  Again, no leverage for us here.

 

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Not just a 1st round pick, they traded up to get Love

Sunk cost fallacy.  Doesn't mean that should/will drive decision making now in a way that will rob GB of appropriate/expected compensation.

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Oh don't get me wrong, I think GB will be very happy to dump Rodgers 50 million/year if they can.  It kickstarts their rebuild.

But if they can't, or can't get the right comp. for such a player, their worst case is still tenable.  Play Rodgers one more year, he retires or gets traded after, then transition to Love.  They can afford it for a single year if they believe in Love, and up his 5th year option.  Not like they have a ton of other high-cost talent at current.  Hence why they need more/better picks, they're borderline a rebuild team at current.

I'd also wager GB has heard from more than just us about Rodgers.  Maybe not to the "speak to him" stage yet, but again, I don't see GB being in the same rush WE are.  

If we fail to get Rodgers, and fail to get him BEFORE free agency, we seriously risk missing out at QB completely in 2023.  That's  fatal for Saleh/JD in NY.  Being strung along IS the big risk here, because GB and Rodgers can both afford to wait/hope the market expands.  We can't.  Again, no leverage for us here.

 

except, they've been told they won't have the option of transitioning to Love. He's a goner if Rodgers stays.

[oatmeal]

From what I’m seeing Aaron hasn’t spoken to Greenbay since the small conversation after the season, his reps were the ones who reached out to Greenbay for permission to speak to us.

That’s very telling

And it’s sad the media is still acting as if he has a chance to remain in Greenbay.

Well yeah they probably would take him back as a backup just to humiliate him but that’s about it, that McGinn report was real both sides are truly disgusted with each other 

[Warfish]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

except, they've been told they won't have the option of transitioning to Love. He's a goner if Rodgers stays.

Love can demand whatever he wants, that doesn't make it so.  These things get smoothed over all the time.

For example, last I checked both Moore and Mims are still Jets.  Both "demanded" trades too.  Demands get ignored all the time.

Again, I hope the cheap-cost IS what happens, and that it happens soon.  I like and support the idea (costly tho it may be) of getting Rodgers for a minimum of two seasons here.  I think it could work, although it is risky because of Rodgers flake status and (lets be honest) laziness in his late career.

I just don't want to see us strung along, miss out on other options, and then not get Rodgers, and wind up starting some JAG or Zach Wilson in 2023.  That's too much to take.

[Dunnie]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sunk cost fallacy.  Doesn't mean that should/will drive decision making now in a way that will rob GB of appropriate/expected compensation.

'appropriate' being the key word.

[Dunnie]

Just now, Warfish said:

I just don't want to see us strung along, miss out on other options, and then not get Rodgers, and wind up starting some JAG or Zach Wilson in 2023.  That's too much to take.

I think there is a 50-50 % chance of this and have prepared myself for it.

[Rhg1084]

looks like we’re bidding against ourselves. Give GB a 3rd and call it a day

[bla bla bla]

10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sunk cost fallacy.  Doesn't mean that should/will drive decision making now in a way that will rob GB of appropriate/expected compensation.

Same could be said for Rodgers

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Rhg1084 said:

looks like we’re bidding against ourselves. Give GB a 3rd and call it a day

The draft compensation will not be punitive. 

[TheClashFan]

I like the idea of a 3rd rounder this year and another 3rd next year that can be upgraded all the way to a 1st depending upon how many games Rodgers plays and how the Jets do this season.  He is an all-time great, but we might be talking about a one year rental here.

Of course, that doesn't mean that GB will accept those terms. For all we know, they might insist on the Jets first rounder this year in any deal.

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

11 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

looks like we’re bidding against ourselves. Give GB a 3rd and call it a day

 No offense to any fat asses here, but Peter King is a fat ass.  Isn’t he the guy who recently wrote it would take 2 first round picks?  Go back to kissing BB’s a$$

[playtowinthegame]

18 hours ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

The plane flies back at 11pm so there should be news by then

Left coast time, am I right?

[playtowinthegame]

 

[redlichtie]

54 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

What leverage do the Packers have that leads you to that conclusion? 

When you trade for a player, no matter who it is, it's about leverage. Rodgers' playing history in this case doesn't supercede the additional circumstances, like his huge contract, the fact that he's anywhere from 0-3 years from retirement, only 1 team is in the running and that GB simply wants and needs to unload him to start the Love era.

This whole time I've thought multiple (over even 1) first round picks is nuts. The Packers have basically two choices: comply with Rodgers' trade request (which looks limited to one team), or watch him retire and get nothing at all.

Way I see it, their only leverage is WHEN the trade happens. JD wants it done now, not after June 1, so he needs to account for that. But at end of the day, the Jets and Rodgers still have GB over a barrel a bit.

Totally agree with you, Green Bay should actually be lucky to recoup anything for him. There  are effectively two positions to which any trade parameters can be decided:

A) The Packers have to eat the huge amount they owe Rodgers, in which case they demand as high a draft compensation as they dare, aware that AR holds all the leverage over them and can squeeze them into complying if he so chooses and desperately wants a deal to the Jets concluded. On top of that JD will attempt to play poker face and hold out for the lowest compensation. Not without risk for Douglas but he has a very encouraging track record in this area of his tenure so far. In this scenario it’s likelier the Jets move closer to what GB would want in compensation but I still don’t see the Packers having a ton of leverage at all here.

B)Douglas & the Jets agree to take on some or most of the cap hit, offering GB some relief and freeing up space to add in FA to support presumptive new starter Jordan Love. But in that case JD should rightly expect a very very favourable deal, as in, what else are you giving me GB?….how much flexibility we have here is the question but go with me  theoretically. At this point there’s much wrangling and detail to be thrashed out but I would have a hard time swallowing a deal that involves us giving up much at all for AR. We’d have basically just upped ourselves in effect. 
 

 

[BigRy56]

Very much looking forward to this deal getting closed for a 2 and a 3. Then we can look forward to the flocking to NY that will happen next week

[heymangold]

i've already grown tired of rodgers.