1st round edge was the right move

[jetblue95]

15 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

 By the end of next year we will be wondering how we could have just passed on the new offensive rookie of the year for rotational 6-7 sack guy who is getting 30% of the D snaps.

we passed on bijan robinson?

just so we are clear, who is next year's OROY?  would be helpful to know now, mostly for fantasy planning purposes, but also to make sure one can't claim every player drafted after pick 15 as their told-you-so guy?

 

[Beerfish]

7 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

we passed on bijan robinson?

just so we are clear, who is next year's OROY?  would be helpful to know now, mostly for fantasy planning purposes, but also to make sure one can't claim every player drafted after pick 15 as their told-you-so guy?

 

One of about 4 Wrs or 2 or three TEs, all of whom were on the board at the time.

[Greenseed4]

2 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

I don't understand why people wanted JSN anyway. Wilson/Lazard/Davis/Hardman are already on this roster. I understand you draft for the long term and not short term but the edge rusher is a much more important position to fill out for this team. There's receivers that come along every draft. 

Having a wave of pass rushers is better for this team in the short and long term than having another receiver. 

I was in the JSN camp because he’d have been an elite addition to our WR room, but also because I had mentally prepared myself to losing Corey Davis in the GB trade.

If CD can improve with better QB play, and Allen Lazard produces (healthy) Michael Thomas-like stats playing big slot, we really are set at receiver. Especially factoring in Garrett at WR1 and Hardman as our WR4.

 

On edit: JSN is nothing like his player comp, Jarvis Landry.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

1 hour ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

I don't understand why people wanted JSN anyway. Wilson/Lazard/Davis/Hardman are already on this roster. I understand you draft for the long term and not short term but the edge rusher is a much more important position to fill out for this team. There's receivers that come along every draft. 

Having a wave of pass rushers is better for this team in the short and long term than having another receiver. 

You forgot Mims. 

[PS17]

40 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Counterargument:  The Chiefs were the #1/#1 Offense in the NFL in 2022.  The Eagles were the #3/#3.

Neither is IN the Super Bowl without that level of Offense.

And the better offense won the game.

The Chiefs trotted out schmoes at WR and had the top rated offense. The QB makes the weaponz (and our weaponz are decent to good). We’ve been desperate for a true edge rusher just as long as we’ve been for QB. 

[peekskill68]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

I don't think it's that clear cut.

For the past 10 years (including 4 years before the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes), the Chiefs have only drafted 3 offensive players in the first round. The QB part of it is a big deal and you also have to determine value.

Do people forget less than 3 years ago Von Miller won a Super Bowl for the Rams?

[LIJetsFan]

54 minutes ago, Warfish said:

LOL.

No worries, like our Head Coach, we should all take receipts, and compare notes sometime around Dec. 2023.

What, you mean you guys weren't taking receipts?  

[Green Ghost]

3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Was just thinking about this this morning.

Last year, pretty much the entire board agreed that edge was a key Jets need and should be a target with one of their early 2022 picks (1st or 2nd round), which made sense. Lawson was coming off an injury, and our other DEs were Huff, JFM, Vinny Curry and Jacob Martin. There were debates about which edge they should take in the first, whether JJ was the right guy, etc.

Fast forward a year and our depth is much better - Lawson is back from injury, and swap out Curry and Martin for JJ and Clemons. But Lawson was less than he was signed to be in his first year back from injury and is in the last year of his deal, Huff is a FA-to-be that we probably can't afford next offseason, and JJ and Clemons are both primarily Calvin Pace/Bryan Thomas types (primarily edge setters/run defenders who can also provide some pressure, not high end sack artists). We're still missing that true pass-rushing edge, and if we hadn't taken one this offseason then in the 2024 offseason we'd be screaming about how we need to sign a top tier FA because we don't have a 1st round pick to take a top tier rookie edge with.

So why has picking an edge in the first gone from necessity to silly luxury in one year? If anything, the McDonald pick is an indictment of the trade-up for Johnson last year (you don't give up 30+ slots in the third round, and a fifth round pick, to move up for a Pace/Thomas type, and I say that despite liking the player). I don't know if McDonald was the right guy at edge - I'm no scout - but if he's the player the Jets seem to think he is, by 2024 he's going to be a starter and our top pass-rusher. And the thought process in taking someone at that position was wise, even over JSN.

Couldn’t agree more. Great pick by the NYJ!

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Like I said, we'll see.  

The pick is what it is, so we all better hope you're right, on both counts (that the weapons ARE "elite" as you say, AND That the Edge guy is the bendy freak people say, and a 8+ sack a year guy immediately).  Seems like alot of folks are very much is "best case" thinking re: our O, O depth, O talent and O duabillity....

And before anyone objects to 8 sacks, that total would make him tier for 38th in the NFL last year, I think being 38th is pretty reasonable for a middle 1st round pick.

Personally, I think you very much over-rate most of our Offensive talent (with the exception of Wilson), and if I was a betting man I'd wager McDonalds doesn;t see 5 sacks, much less 8 this year. 

But we'll see.

The eight sacks argument is pretty superficial and self-serving. I want to see the totality of McDonald's impact when he plays -- is he disruptive, creates pressure, forces turnovers, and get sacks. But sacks are not the litmus test of a great edge, particularly the way QB's are protected in today's game. How many attempted sacks have backfired due to refs calling literally a touch to be roughing the passer. It comes with risks it never had in the past.

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, BurntDice said:

I’m starting to think edge is the 5th or 6th most important position on the team

1. QB

2. WR

3.  CB

4. LT

5.  Edge or DT not sure which is higher 

Especially when 1-4 functionally makes it that way. 

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@Warfish probably lauded the Clyde Edwards-Helaire pick for the Chiefs too.  And now their starting RB is....a 7th rounder.

A really good EDGE is going to help Aaron Rodgers more than a slot receiver like JSN ever could.

One of the first people to text McDonald to congratulate him on being drafted to the Jets was Aaron Rodgers. 

[RevisIsland610]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Counterargument:  The Chiefs were the #1/#1 Offense in the NFL in 2022.  The Eagles were the #3/#3.

Neither is IN the Super Bowl without that level of Offense.

And the better offense won the game.

So they were good in scoring points and getting to the QB and preventing them. What a revelation that having a balanced team that can do both is a key to success. The Jets already took a major step with adding Rodgers among other less celebrated additions. Another weapon that potentially makes this defense more dangerous and able to create turnovers is important to this teams overall success. 

[T0mShane]

Agree with everything @Doggin94it said. The most coherent critique of this pick, imo, was from Dane Brugler, who said that he likes the idea of McDonald for the Jets more than the player himself and compared it to the Eagles drafting Nolan Smith, because they are both a little bit niche and role-specific. 

[jetblue95]

45 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

One of about 4 Wrs or 2 or three TEs, all of whom were on the board at the time.

 

ah, so you take everyone picked after 15 and get to say i told you so if the OROY isn't young, stroud, richardson, bijan or gibbs.  while my guess is robinson is the "pre-season favorite", the odds are definitely in your favor of being able to say i told you so...

and just so we are clear, you would have been happy taking a TE at 15?  or was it one of the WRs, and if so, which one?

[Jetsfan80]

48 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I was in the JSN camp because he’d have been an elite addition to our WR room, but also because I had mentally prepared myself to losing Corey Davis in the GB trade.

If CD can improve with better QB play, and Allen Lazard produces (healthy) Michael Thomas-like stats playing big slot, we really are set at receiver. Especially factoring in Garrett at WR1 and Hardman as our WR4.

However, should we decide to go fishing in FA, the player comp for JSN is still currently on the wire — we can add Jarvis Landry. 

 

The 2 bold items don't compute.  JSN is an "elite" addition, yet his comp is current street FA Jarvis Landry?

Someone has yet to give me a good explanation of the JSN obsession, because he sounds to me like a guy who should have been picked in Round 3 if not for it being a very weak draft class at the top, particularly at WR.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Someone has yet to give me a good explanation of the JSN obsession.  

I thought he'd be a better WR weapon than anyone on our roster not named Wilson.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I thought he'd be a better WR weapon than anyone on our roster not named Wilson.

I get that people think this way, but what exactly was special about him to suggest he'd become our 2nd best WR?  

[Warfish]

20 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

The eight sacks argument is pretty superficial and self-serving. I want to see the totality of McDonald's impact when he plays -- is he disruptive, creates pressure, forces turnovers, and get sacks. But sacks are not the litmus test of a great edge, particularly the way QB's are protected in today's game. How many attempted sacks have backfired due to refs calling literally a touch to be roughing the passer. It comes with risks it never had in the past.

So you don't think he'll get 8 sacks then?

And yes, sacks are in fact the #1 litmus test for "pass rush specialist", as folks here are calling him.

[65 Toss Power Trap]

3 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

No, it wasn't.

50/50 chance of this comment aging well . . . or aging poorly

powerful take

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I get that people think this way, but what exactly was special about him to suggest he'd become our 2nd best WR?  

Clearly nothing, because his RAS scores weren't green enough.

[slimjasi]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I get that people think this way, but what exactly was special about him to suggest he'd become our 2nd best WR?  

People have been hearing his name for weeks and weeks as the best available WR and I think go from there. I like him and wanted to draft him when the tackles were gone, but I do think it's pretty telling he fell all the way to #20 overall. They could up end up being wrong, but it's clear this WR class wasn't particularly highly regarded by NFL GMs. Meanwhile, 7 different edge rushers went in the first round . . . 

[Greenseed4]

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The 2 bold items don't compute.  JSN is an "elite" addition, yet his comp is current street FA Jarvis Landry?

Someone has yet to give me a good explanation of the JSN obsession, because he sounds to me like a guy who should have been picked in Round 3 if not for it being a very weak draft class at the top, particularly at WR.

That was his player comp on one of the sites. After some digging, I’d like to retract my comment.  Thanks

 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So you don't think he'll get 8 sacks then?

And yes, sacks are in fact the #1 litmus test for "pass rush specialist", as folks here are calling him.

Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt had 7 sacks each in their rookie years, Nick Bosa had 9. So you're essentially saying that McDonald should perform or out-perform the best pass rushers in the NFL in their rookie years. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense for a 15th pick in a rotational defense. I've played fairer bets at the carnival. 

[kdels62]

17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I get that people think this way, but what exactly was special about him to suggest he'd become our 2nd best WR?  

Young breakout age, backed by great tape and elite agility. 

I would’ve been happy with Smith Njigba. That being said, he is a slot only option and we have 3 slot flex players in Wilson/ Davis/ Lazard.

[Jethead]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I thought he'd be a better WR weapon than anyone on our roster not named Wilson.

Fish,

I don't regret missing out on JSN. Let's make it moot and go get TEE Higgins. Cincy has to pay Burrow and Chase. Will find it tough to pay all 3.

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt had 7 sacks each in their rookie years, Nick Bosa had 9. So you're essentially saying that McDonald should perform or out-perform the best pass rushers in the NFL in their rookie years. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense for a 15th pick in a rotational defense. I've played fairer bets at the carnival. 

Got it, no on 8 sacks. Thanks LiL.

[Bowles Movement]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

I say it over and over, the NFL is an offense-dominated league.  You do not win if you do not score.

Our Offense has been ranked 28th, 29th, 28th, 11th (Fitzy), 30th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 32nd, 28th and 29th since 2012.

No wonder we're the leader by far in years without a playoff appearance.  

Closest we came, yup, 2015 with Fitz and the 11th ranked scoring Offense.

And yet, we as a team invest far heavier in Defense with our top picks than we do with offense.  Despite the regime, we seem to consistently try and build the 1985 Bears or the elite D era Ravens, rather than try to compete with the top Offenses.

Since 2007 we have picked Defense with our top #1 pick 13 times out of 17 years.  

Of the remaining 4 top #1 picks, three were QB's!  Sanchez, Darnold and Wilson.

Only once in the past 17 years has our top #1 pick been a non-QB Offensive player, and that was Becton. 

And what do we have to show for this incredible investment of draft capital to the Defense and the constant hiring of Defense minded Head Coaches?

The longest streak of uncompetitive football in the NFL.

So in desperation, due to our ongoing failure to find or identify a QB, we got Aaron Rodgers.  That is awesome if he still has it (and I think he does).  But he isn't Jesus Christ, he doesn't walk on water, and he won't turn water into wine.  He's 40 ffs. Our supporting cast is thin, subpar at many spots and unreliable health-wise (O-line) and our skill position players have only two elite talents, one of whom is coming back off a horrible injury and is 100% TBD if he'll be the same guy.

All this said, I just think the route to change is CHANGE, to try and win by building elite talent on offense.  Not doing the same old defense, defense, defense thing we've always done, especially with a pick like this one that is almost all athleticism/RAS score based, who at most will only be a rotational guy while we have Rodgers.  especially the year after we invested a #1 in a supposedly elite edge rusher (a narrative that's now changed when this pick got made, lol).

We paid alot to get Rodgers, I would have gotten him another weapon.  But clearly, mot of the forum does not agree and loves bendy gumby, lol.

This year we got a QB, center, OT, RB and TE with our draft picks.   That seems like a reasonable investment of draft capital to me.

Last year we drafted a WR , RB and TE in the first 3 rounds.

We also signed McGovern, Lazard and Hardman as free agents.   To say we didnt improve the offense is silly.

 

[bonkertons]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

I say it over and over, the NFL is an offense-dominated league.  You do not win if you do not score.

Our Offense has been ranked 28th, 29th, 28th, 11th (Fitzy), 30th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 32nd, 28th and 29th since 2012.

No wonder we're the leader by far in years without a playoff appearance.  

Closest we came, yup, 2015 with Fitz and the 11th ranked scoring Offense.

And yet, we as a team invest far heavier in Defense with our top picks than we do with offense.  Despite the regime, we seem to consistently try and build the 1985 Bears or the elite D era Ravens, rather than try to compete with the top Offenses.

Since 2007 we have picked Defense with our top #1 pick 13 times out of 17 years.  

Of the remaining 4 top #1 picks, three were QB's!  Sanchez, Darnold and Wilson.

Only once in the past 17 years has our top #1 pick been a non-QB Offensive player, and that was Becton. 

And what do we have to show for this incredible investment of draft capital to the Defense and the constant hiring of Defense minded Head Coaches?

The longest streak of uncompetitive football in the NFL.

So in desperation, due to our ongoing failure to find or identify a QB, we got Aaron Rodgers.  That is awesome if he still has it (and I think he does).  But he isn't Jesus Christ, he doesn't walk on water, and he won't turn water into wine.  He's 40 ffs. Our supporting cast is thin, subpar at many spots and unreliable health-wise (O-line) and our skill position players have only two elite talents, one of whom is coming back off a horrible injury and is 100% TBD if he'll be the same guy.

All this said, I just think the route to change is CHANGE, to try and win by building elite talent on offense.  Not doing the same old defense, defense, defense thing we've always done, especially with a pick like this one that is almost all athleticism/RAS score based, who at most will only be a rotational guy while we have Rodgers.  especially the year after we invested a #1 in a supposedly elite edge rusher (a narrative that's now changed when this pick got made, lol).

We paid alot to get Rodgers, I would have gotten him another weapon.  But clearly, mot of the forum does not agree and loves bendy gumby, lol.

C'mon now.  Let's not act like JD hasn't invested in this offense.  In 4 years of drafting, JD has spent 4 1st rounders and 4 2nd rounders on offense.  This idea that it's been "defense defense defense" is just untrue.  Sauce, JJ, and McDonald.  Those are the only 3 guys he's taken in 4 years in the first 2 rounds. 

It was pretty clear that the QB production and our OL health were the two biggest things holding this offense back from potentially being elite.  How elite would depend on the QB, and whether or not this OL can stay on the field.  We got the QB.  Are we going to draft an OT(reach on one, after the big 4 were gone) at 15 because Becton "might" get hurt again?  JD's going to see what we have.  He added depth.  He brought back Brown, drafted this kid out of Pitt who seems pretty Pro ready.  Brought back McGovern who can slide to OG and drafted arguably the best C in the draft.  Made a few other signings.  The upside is there for this line, I think even the most pessimistic Jets fans would agree.  

If we had the same exact draft except JSN instead of McDonald, would we still be having this conversation?  Is this offense with JSN(and without Davis, in that case) really that much more elite than what it is right now?

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

This year we got a QB, center, OT, RB and TE with our draft picks.   That seems like a reasonable investment of draft capital to me.

Last year we drafted a WR , RB and TE in the first 3 rounds.

We also signed McGovern, Lazard and Hardman as free agents.   To say we didnt improve the offense is silly.

The only clear-cut improvement this year vs. last is Rodgers.  And yes, he should make a big difference.

Enough to take us from bottom 5 to top 5?  Probably not.

Like I keep saying, if everyone loves this bendy edge guy no one was talking about before JD picked him, great.  If you're happy, be happy.  

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I get the historical overview, fish - we've been here together through it, after all. But our wepinz are already elite - better than what Rodgers was working with in GB his MVP seasons:

WR: No, Wilson isn't Davante Adams. But he's a true No. 1 WR who produced at a high level despite dogsh*t QB play last year. Our No. 2 WR - Davis - is a 1A type who is at his best when he's not asked to be the No. 1; he eats against No. 2 coverage, which is what he'll see. Lazard is basically Davis part 2, Hardman is a very good field stretcher and gadget guy with elite speed. I'll take that WR room, overall, ahead of Adams-Lazard-MVS-Cobb (which is what Rodgers was working with in 2021), and so would every GM in the NFL.

TE: Conklin and Uzomah are each better pass-catchers than Robert Tonyan, let alone their No. 2 TE (Marcedes Lewis)

RB: At the high end, and if healthy, Breece Hall is better than Aaron Jones (and that's no slight to Jones who is terrific). AJ Dillon is certainly better than Carter/Bam/Abanikanda, though. Of course, Breece might not be fully recovered, and if so that's a downgrade. But I know you didn't want us taking the third RB in the top 15.

That leaves OL. And yeah, I get the injury concerns at OT. But the 2021 Packers started Elgton Jenkins (a guard) at LT, Jon Runyan Jr. at LG, Lucas Patrick (currently a backup OG on the Bears) at C, Royce Newman at RG, and Billy Turner at RT. That's not exactly the 7 Blocks of Granite and definitively worse than our starting 5.

Of course, that all depends on Aaron still "having it". But if he doesn't then picking Jaxon Smith-Njigba wouldn't change that.

Agree with these arguments, especially the comparison between GB and NYJ skill position players.

Davante is amazing and better than anyone we have (including GW), but beyond that, I do feel like the supporting cast here is better than Rodgers' previous team. 

Guys like CD & Conklin are likely to produce far better than last year simply because of the massive upgrade behind center. 

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

If we had the same exact draft except JSN instead of McDonald, would we still be having this conversation?

We're not.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Got it, no on 8 sacks. Thanks LiL.

LOL. Yeah. You can take your stinkin carnival game and go to the next town.

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

WR: No, Wilson isn't Davante Adams. But he's a true No. 1 WR who produced at a high level despite dogsh*t QB play last year.

Is DA better than GW based upon his many years with AR? He didn't look like nearly the same WR without him. I watched the video someone posted showing all of AR touchdowns. I couldn't have handed the ball to these WR better than AR dropped it in their lap from 40 yards away and with a DL in his face and the WR having two DB draped on him.

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Davante is amazing and better than anyone we have (including GW), but beyond that, I do feel like the supporting cast here is better than Rodgers' previous team. 

 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

LOL. Yeah. You can take your stinkin carnival game and go to the next town.

Pass rushing edges are primarily judged by their sacks.  You may not think so, but you're simply wrong.

We drafted a pass rush specialist, he's apparently an athletic freak, best pass rusher in the draft, pick your hyperbole currently going round JN,  and everyone is happy.  That's cool. 

Nothing wrong with asking/projecting what his real, actual production impact will be (or not be).

You clearly don't seem to believe he's an 8 or 8+ sack guy in 2023, and that's ok.  

Not sure why you get so angry about such basic stuff some days LiL.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

The Jets were 7th in the NFL in 2022 in Sacks, and 3rd in % of QB Pressures.

Without McDonald.

Pressuring and sacking the QB was not our problem in 2022.  Scoring was.

That’ll change when teams have to pull out their real offenses against us this year to keep up.

An edge who can create sacks on his own is worth 1.5 defenders. We will need that this year to stop the pass.

You also ignore yet again that the Jets literally just traded for a HOF QB using… draft assets. The “JD messed up by not drafting enough offense” don’t hunt. Especially when we drafted 4 offensive players to 3 this draft. Yes the first rounder was defense but the next three picks in a row were offense. Sounds like you’re saying anything less than 100% offense was “blowing it.” That is — I’m sorry — ridiculous.