Warren Sharp 2024 SOS: Jets have 4th easiest

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Brissett and Zappe with 2nd toughest 

 

[Maxman]

I am not a huge fan of strength of schedule this far out but it is nice to see the Jets on the right side of things for a change.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

3 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Brissett and Zappe with 2nd toughest 

 

Who do the patriots play this season that the jets do not

[Barry McCockinner]

That's what happens when Mac Jones leaves the division.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Who do the patriots play this season that the jets do not

The Jets, for one! 

[jamesr]

I don't get how the Ravens, Browns and Steelers are 29, 30 and 32 while the Bengals are sitting at 6th, given how similar their schedules are and that they all have to play each other. 

Usually teams within a division are all pretty closely ranked due to the mostly identical schedules?

[Larz]

Jets 4th easiest.  Lots of good information in this article.  He doesn’t use last year’s results to forecast this year he uses Vegas odds on wins. He nailed it last year. 
 

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)

Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)

Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

Are strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total

Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total

 

 

 

Jets are hosting a playoff game this year fellas.  Start the swear jar to save money now. 

[Larz]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-strength-of-schedule/

 

 

[Jet_Engine1]

[peebag]

14 years and counting

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

13 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The Jets, for one! 

Sort of.

The Jets have a way of beating themselves 🤣

[Warfish]

14 hours ago, Maxman said:

I am not a huge fan of strength of schedule this far out but it is nice to see the Jets on the right side of things for a change.

A supposed SOS based on the previous year's records, is entirely irrelevant to the current year.  You are 100% right to dismiss it.

The amount of change and turnover in the NFL, no one is what they were the year before. For better and worse.

[slats]

14 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Who do the patriots play this season that the jets do not

Bears, Bengals, and Chargers for the Pats vs. Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers for the Jets. 
 
Very weird that the last place team in the division has such a harder perceived schedule than the third place team, but I’ll take it. 

[Claymation]

14 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Who do the patriots play this season that the jets do not

The Jets

Also the Chargers, Bears and the Bengals

[nycdan]

I think this is the difference for CIN vs. BAL

NE, TEN, CAR for CIN (12 wins)

BUF, HOU, TB for BAL (30 wins)

Plus another 8 wins for playing each other.

That's about 1.5 wins per week which does seem like a lot.

PFF has completely different rankings based on their own projections: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-strength-of-schedule/

 

 

 

[JetsFanatic]

2 hours ago, jamesr said:

I don't get how the Ravens, Browns and Steelers are 29, 30 and 32 while the Bengals are sitting at 6th, given how similar their schedules are and that they all have to play each other. 

Usually teams within a division are all pretty closely ranked due to the mostly identical schedules?

I thought the same thing about us and the Patriots. Teams in a division play virtually the same schedule other than maybe 3 games.

[jamesr]

I thought the same thing about us and the Patriots. Teams in a division play virtually the same schedule other than maybe 3 games.

With the Patriots I can kind of see the logic. The rankings are based on projected records, so if you work on the basis that Buffalo, Miami and Jets will all be very good, then NE will have a very difficult schedule.

But in no world do I see Cincinnati have an easy time of it in the AFC North.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

A supposed SOS based on the previous year's records, is entirely irrelevant to the current year.  You are 100% right to dismiss it.

The amount of change and turnover in the NFL, no one is what they were the year before. For better and worse.

That's not how Warren Sharp does it.

His is based on projected Vegas win totals.

When the actual schedule comes out, he will do in-depth analysis on all the minutiae including rest advantages.  He is intelligent and a legit football analyst.

[Barry McCockinner]

fwiw last year they were projected as the 8th hardest SOS and ended up 15th hardest. Off by over 20%.

These pre-season SOS rankings aren't very useful imo.

[Warfish]

32 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

That's not how Warren Sharp does it.

His is based on projected Vegas win totals.

When the actual schedule comes out, he will do in-depth analysis on all the minutiae including rest advantages.  He is intelligent and a legit football analyst.

If someone could project, accurately, future wins/win totals, they'd be making millions in Vegas, not being an analyst.  I am sure he's intelligent, and I am sure he has a method, but regardless, it's of limited real-world value.  Games are played on the field, not in projections of SOS.

/shrug.

[Gaffneycatch81]

13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If someone could project, accurately, future wins/win totals, they'd be making millions in Vegas, not being an analyst.  I am sure he's intelligent, and I am sure he has a method, but regardless, it's of limited real-world value.  Games are played on the field, not in projections of SOS.

/shrug.

Let’s try this for the third time (or you could just bother to read the link before posting) — it is not based on this guy’s opinion, it is based on VEGAS’s projected win totals. And to your point about if someone could accurately predict outcomes of NFL games they wouldn’t be working as an NFL analyst, Vegas, in fact, DOES make millions (or make that billions) of dollars a year by accurately predicting sports outcomes (that’s what setting odds is about).

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

Let’s try this for the third time (or you could just bother to read the link before posting) — it is not based on this guy’s opinion, it is based on VEGAS’s projected win totals. And to your point about if someone could accurately predict outcomes of NFL games they wouldn’t be working as an NFL analyst, Vegas, in fact, DOES make millions (or make that billions) of dollars a year by accurately predicting sports outcomes (that’s what setting odds is about).

Vegas 'projected wins/win totals' is about maximizing profit from gamblers, not accurately picking wins and losses.  Related, but not the same.

Look, you want to believe we have the whatever weakest SOS and that this means something important as to how 2024 will play out, great!  

Feels alot to me like the "we have the greatest roster in the NFL on paper" threads.   

There are other things there that seem entirely silly, like New England's being shown as one of the hardest but ours being one of the easiest, given the similarities of overall schedules, but whatever.  I should just stay out of the dumbass make-believe threads tbqh.

 

 

 

[Integrity28]

Doesn’t mean sh*t if we’re not 7-deep at OT guys.

[BigRy56]

13 win season on deck. That’s the floor baby

[NYJCAP2]

59 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

That's not how Warren Sharp does it.

His is based on projected Vegas win totals.

When the actual schedule comes out, he will do in-depth analysis on all the minutiae including rest advantages.  He is intelligent and a legit football analyst.

Good to know, perhaps more accurate than the previous league year record.

[Gaffneycatch81]

12 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Vegas 'projected wins/win totals' is about maximizing profit from gamblers, not accurately picking wins and losses.  Related, but not the same.

Look, you want to believe we have the whatever weakest SOS and that this means something important as to how 2024 will play out, great!  

Feels alot to me like the "we have the greatest roster in the NFL on paper" threads.   

There are other things there that seem entirely silly, like New England's being shown as one of the hardest but ours being one of the easiest, given the similarities of overall schedules, but whatever.  I should just stay out of the dumbass make-believe threads tbqh.

 

 

 

Yes, Vegas odds are not exactly the same as projected outcomes — you’re right. It’s close to the same thing, but not exactly the same. Nevertheless, history would say it’s the most accurate predictor there is. Certainly far better than last season’s record or some guy’s opinion — which is what you kept arguing this was.

 

And yes, when it comes to looking ahead to next season, I’ll take all the data I can get. And this data happens to be a lot more grounded than a lot of what is out there. Does it mean the Jets are going to have a great season? Of course not — but likening it to some random poster arguing that the Jets have the best roster in NFL is a stretch.

[Beerfish]

[UntouchableCrew]

That makes zero sense.

Patriots finished fourth in our division, we finished third. Three games and playing each other is all that separates our schedules.

That formula then means the Bengals are easier than the Steelers (uh, no) and that the Raiders are much easier than the Broncos (maybe?). Vikings vs. Bears? I dunno.

[rex-n-effect]

So his projected SOS is based on predicting other people have accurately predicted the outcome when placing bets? 

He's just proving bettors are roughly accurate as a whole and Vegas is generally accurate in setting odds that make casinos money. He should be right way more often than he's wrong because he's aggregating generally accurate predictions. 

You could aggregate Vegas odds on all kinds of bets into projections and you're more likely to be wrong than right. That's not good analysis--it's just copying other people's work.

[Tooooon]

Y’all are making this WAY too complicated.   On paper, the Jets appear to have a softer schedule this year.  That’s all it is.  No need to let that flare up your hemorrhoids.

This thread is no less valuable than the 1,400th iteration of “Should we draft OL, WR or TE????????  

[Larz]

 

[Larz]

and if they can figure out a way to beat the Dolphins (2-11 in last 13 vs MIA) the rest of their schedule gives them the opportunity for success in 2024

[August]

We should sweep the Patriots and split with the Dolphins and Bills. That gives us 4-2 in division. 
 

AFC South will be tougher as all 4 teams will be vying for the playoffs. None of those games are gimmes. We host the Colts and Texans, and on the road against the Jags and Titans. I say we go 3-1. Wins over the Colts, Titans and Jags. 
 

Broncos should be a win and at least we don’t have to go to Mile High this season. 

Steelers on the road will be tough, I’ll concede this as a loss. 
 

Vikings on the road, they’ll either have Darnold at QB or a rookie quarterback. They have an explosive offense but a shaky defense. I’ll call this a win, I don’t expect the Vikings to be good this season. 
 

These NFC West games will be tough for sure. Rams and Seahawks at home, 49ers and Cardinals on the road. I say we split these games 2-2. Wins against the Cardinals and Rams, losses to the Seahawks and 49ers. 
 

11-6 record. Will that be good enough for the division? I guess we’ll see. 

 

 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

7 hours ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Good to know, perhaps more accurate than the previous league year record.

Yea, definitely has more predictive value.

Sharp is the best in the business. 

[32EBoozer]

12 hours ago, Larz said:

Start the swear jar to save money now. 

I have enough swear jar $ from last years game 1 (4th play to be exact) to buy a suite at the next SB