Your 2024 Jets draft prediction

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Trading up. Feel it in my bones. They want a playmaker and won’t sit there and wait. 

I don’t think it will be an OL regardless. 

[Jdeet]

Odd that you don’t include the most likely outcome. WR at 10. But whatever. 

[LIJetsFan]

Bowers at 10 is my worse case scenario.  OT 2 or WR 3 make a lot more sense.  Trade up or back works for me as well.  Unless WR 3 falls, 10 is not really a sweet spot.   

[Maxman]

10 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Six days out, lots of speculation. What do you think they do?

From a betting perspective, Bowers seems to be the safest bet. Not in the context of his ability on the field. I mean the most likely draft day outcome.

[peebag]

10 hours ago, slimjasi said:

If Odunze is there, he’ll be the pick
 

otherwise, I think it’s Bowers

a trade up for a WR is also possible, but I suspect teams like Tenn or Atlanta will want the jets to overpay to move down 

This.

[NYJCAP2]

The trade scenarios make this year really tough.

I’m convinced it’s Bowers unless he’s not there.

Which would push down Alt or Odunze would be my guess.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

No idea, but can’t wait for the speculation to be over.

Was torture knowing ZW was gonna be the pick 3 years ago like a month before the draft and that nothing was gonna change the GM’s mind.

Since re-drafting ZW is impossible, this should feel like a relative walk in the park 🤣

As long as they don’t reach for BTJ at #10, I think I’m basically good.

Bowers would be disappointing at #10, but at least there’s talent and upside and an immediate path to a day 1 role on cheap screens and dumpoffs.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Vegas seems convinced it’s gonna be BB 🤷‍♂️🙃

These odds are ridiculous 

 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

3 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

Bowers at 10 is my worse case scenario.  OT 2 or WR 3 make a lot more sense.  Trade up or back works for me as well.  Unless WR 3 falls, 10 is not really a sweet spot.   

I agree, don’t try and half-ass it.

Don’t force the Bowers pick at #10.

Go up for Nabers or MHJ or even 1 spot for Odunze if you have to.

If they’re all gone at #10 take a franchise LT or move back.

The odds of every OL on the Jets starting all 17 games are effectively zero, and next offseason your only OTs under contract are Carter Warren and Maxx Mitchell so you’ll be right back in this position of having to draft an OT.

[derp]

7 hours ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Trading up. Feel it in my bones. They want a playmaker and won’t sit there and wait. 

I don’t think it will be an OL regardless. 

I feel the same way. I think at 7 and they only give up 2025 draft capital. Titans accumulate in case they’re QB hunting and take their Callahan preferred tackle later. Win-win.

[Better2bgreenthanblue]

OL at 10. We need depth. Seems like there are 15 good WR's in this draft. Hopefully we find a gem in the later rounds. 

[TuscanyTile2]

8 hours ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Trading up. Feel it in my bones. They want a playmaker and won’t sit there and wait. 

I don’t think it will be an OL regardless. 

It's funny because I feel the exact opposite.  I think JD will look to trade down and will take an OL with his first pick.  (Then a WR with his 2nd pick, whichever round it ends up being in.  I think there will be a trade up from the 3rd round pick, btw).

[derp]

34 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It's funny because I feel the exact opposite.  I think JD will look to trade down and will take an OL with his first pick.  (Then a WR with his 2nd pick, whichever round it ends up being in.  I think there will be a trade up from the 3rd round pick, btw).

My plan A would be trading up for a WR (getting the WR at 10 would be ideal but I think maybe a bit of a stretch) and my plan B would be trading down for a tackle. I think a little up from where they pick is the sweet spot for a receiver, a little down is the sweet spot for a tackle, and 10 is likely no man’s land where they’ll take a player in the same tier they would if they moved down.

Douglas is, I think, very trusting of his evaluations (maybe to a fault) and so much more wired to move up than down. And I’d add that the tricky part of trading down is finding a partner - as we saw last year. One thing to want to do it, another to have a trade partner. I could see letting it ride if they felt good about having a trade partner going down, but I’d rather they go get someone they love than get stuck in a tough spot at 10.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It's funny because I feel the exact opposite.  I think JD will look to trade down and will take an OL with his first pick.  (Then a WR with his 2nd pick, whichever round it ends up being in.  I think there will be a trade up from the 3rd round pick, btw).

If they trade down, I still think they would taken WR , like Brian Thomas or whoever. 

[Augustiniak]

15 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

If they trade down, I still think they would taken WR , like Brian Thomas or whoever. 

I read somewhere the jets have done a lot of homework on him.  This is definitely a sleeper pick if they trade down.  

He’s also a good pairing with what they have.  I could see them trading back and taking him, and then looking at OL depth on day 2.  Not my favorite scenario but it’s better than simply taking a TE at 10

[New York Mick]

I voted other because I have no fcking clue what’s going to happen. 

[GKnight83]

I think the Jets trade down - twice.

The first trade down they net a 2nd.

The second they trade down to about 29 and select Guyton.

They also net 3 more picks - combo of present and future picks

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

Everything begins on the lines , offensive and defensive . Shore them up first .

[PepPep]

19 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The top 3 receivers go earlier than expected.

JD tries to move down but doesn’t love his options. 

We end up with Troy Fautanu @ 10. 

This is what I think will happen. My pick would have been Fashanu but the Jets seem to be obsessed with positional flexibility. 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

If they trade down, I still think they would taken WR , like Brian Thomas or whoever. 

I'm certainly no expert (beyond listening to draft podcasts!  Lol) but, from what I've heard, there's more depth at WR than higher-end OT.   I  also heard that there's more depth at OG, though.  So if the Jets do end up with 3 picks in the 1st 3 rounds, I could see them going OT, WR, OG (which I'd be very happy with!)

[Jetpain]

12 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Please remember we have Mitchell and Warren with a healthy offseason of progress, as well as picking up vets with camp cut down. Priority for me is the big, fast WR to develop & to back up MW & Lazard in case of injury. Hoping Brownlee working his ass off these past few months. OT, Safety & LB and DT 3-7.

Wepones!!

I know an O line draft pick isnt exciting, but i am not sure how we could go into a season with Warren & Mitchell as our backups.  I hope Warren keeps developing, Mitchell i think is on the practice squad this year. Maybe they pick a vet up off the scrap heap, but there is usually a reason those guys are still on the street.   If one of the top WR's are there at 10, i can see them picking them.  What i struggle to see is if they are gone, then us just picking the next WR just because we want a another weapon.  The value of that 4th WR compared to the 2nd or 3rd O lineman may be significant.  I think there are other WR options in round 2 (pending a trade) and round 3.   And i would not be surprised for them to sign either Corey Davis back or OBJ after the draft as insurance.   I also agree on your safety, LB and DT in round 3-7, but i certainly wouldnt be upset with a CB in those rounds either.

[Bungaman]

I think they go OL - this guy fits a lot of boxes, including the character ones that JD has sought in the past: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/21/olu-fashanu/  though I don't know if he'd be available later if they tried to trade down.

If not him, and if none of the top receivers are available, then probably Bowers.

[BigRy56]

The dream scenario is Odunze in a small trade up to 8. Bowers is the ballsiest pick JD could make. My ‘drafter beware’ player of the draft is Nabers, just a hunch, but he’ll be gone.

I am expecting us to stay put at 10 and take Fautanu/Fuaga.

[JustInFudge]

20 votes for Bowers at 10, 20 votes for OT.

Interesting. 

Also interesting is that many of the 20 who voted for the OT, are the same people who were like, yo!  Will McDonald was a luxury pick.  If the Jets are all this season w/ Rodgers, why pick a part time player? 

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

20 votes for Bowers at 10, 20 votes for OT.

Interesting. 

Also interesting is that many of the 20 who voted for the OT, are the same people who were like, yo!  Will McDonald was a luxury pick.  If the Jets are all this season w/ Rodgers, why pick a part time player? 

Because Rodgers is the most important player on the "all-in" attempt, our starting LT hasn't played a full season since 1837 and we should protect Rodgers at all costs. There is no replacing Rodgers if he goes down.

But I voted trade up. Go get MHJ.

[August]

The safe pick is oline and we know the Jets will make the safe pick 9 out of 10 times. So I can see a trade down happening where they draft an oline player. 

[Bobby816]

On 4/20/2024 at 12:33 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

Trade up to 5 for MHJ after the Vikings trade up to 4 to take my cousin McCarthy.

Why are we supposed to care that your cousin is McCarthy? No one cares

[JohnnyLV]

On 4/20/2024 at 5:08 PM, Augustiniak said:

You would assume they’re also looking at these scenarios.  And they probably will make a judgment call.  But i keep going back to all the criticism jd has taken about the OL, how he was brought here to fix it, the becton saga and all the injuries.  And now if they took a wr or bowers and Tyron smith gets hurt and they didn’t take a good OT, that’s kinda it for jd here. 

It could also be a reason he shies away from taking an OT as he does not want to draft another bust either.

[Integrity28]

Prediction: whoever they pick is going to be a guy they had much higher on their board and didn’t expect to be there.

OL is the safe-choice selection. If JD can’t swing a trade down and doesn’t have the sack or option to roll with a weapon - he goes OL because nobody is criticizing it. At all.

[Joe W. Namath]

Trade down w/ broncos or raiders.  Pick up an additional pick and take brian thomas jr.

[jamesr]

18 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

20 votes for Bowers at 10, 20 votes for OT.

Interesting. 

Also interesting is that many of the 20 who voted for the OT, are the same people who were like, yo!  Will McDonald was a luxury pick.  If the Jets are all this season w/ Rodgers, why pick a part time player? 

No-one that we pick at 10 will be more than a part-time player in Year 1. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as it means we have no obvious holes to fill. 

WR - they'll be rotating in at WR 3 / WR 4, and possibly MW a bit (maybe more so early on, if he's not 100%).

TE - unlikely they would get more snaps than Conklin in Year 1, plus Ruckert would still be in the mix. Option too on 2 TE sets at the expense of the #3 WR (either in-line TE or split out) so may see more snaps that way.

OL - could be a 17 game starter (worst case - unless they pan out really well) or a 17 game backup ("nice problem to have" in a sense - but not in terms of draft pick value in Year 1).

I saw this article which projected missed time for Smith / Moses as about 7 games, which would equate to an OT potentially getting 40% of the snaps year 1. Not much different from what a WR or TE might get Year 1.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/04/21/ny-jets-year-one-impact-nfl-draft/

Quote

When you really break it down, a rookie tackle’s expected playing time for the Jets is actually not much different than the expected playing time of a tight end or wide receiver in the likely event they are not one of the top-tier performers among first-rounders. Hopefully, if the Jets get Bowers or Odunze/Nabers, they will be a top-tier standout who immediately dominates and commands at least 60-70% of the snaps, and all of those guys have the talent to do that. Realistically, though, we need to go by the historical averages to find a reasonable baseline. And when you do that, it suddenly doesn’t seem that crazy to take a tackle if you’re looking for Year 1 impact.

The other angle is to look ahead one year to see where we will be at these positions - and there are no real answers there at all.   

• Smith / Moses - both getting up in years, on one-year deals
• Williams - not so much "getting up there" but injuries are still an issue; also on a one-year deal
• Conklin - last year of his deal

It likely says that none of the three options (WR, OT, TE) is particularly good / bad relative to each other. I keep going back and forth on them myself and can't really pick one out of the three that is head and shoulders above the others, based on who will likely be there at 10. 

 

 

 

 

[Joe W. Namath]

12 minutes ago, jamesr said:

No-one that we pick at 10 will be more than a part-time player in Year 1. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as it means we have no obvious holes to fill. 

WR - they'll be rotating in at WR 3 / WR 4, and possibly MW a bit (maybe more so early on, if he's not 100%).

TE - unlikely they would get more snaps than Conklin in Year 1, plus Ruckert would still be in the mix. Option too on 2 TE sets at the expense of the #3 WR (either in-line TE or split out) so may see more snaps that way.

OL - could be a 17 game starter (worst case - unless they pan out really well) or a 17 game backup ("nice problem to have" in a sense - but not in terms of draft pick value in Year 1).

I saw this article which projected missed time for Smith / Moses as about 7 games, which would equate to an OT potentially getting 40% of the snaps year 1. Not much different from what a WR or TE might get Year 1.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/04/21/ny-jets-year-one-impact-nfl-draft/

The other angle is to look ahead one year to see where we will be at these positions - and there are no real answers there at all.   

• Smith / Moses - both getting up in years, on one-year deals
• Williams - not so much "getting up there" but injuries are still an issue; also on a one-year deal
• Conklin - last year of his deal

It likely says that none of the three options (WR, OT, TE) is particularly good / bad relative to each other. I keep going back and forth on them myself and can't really pick one out of the three that is head and shoulders above the others, based on who will likely be there at 10. 

 

 

 

 

In todays nfl, a wr3 is a starter.  So yes if they took a WR at 10, that player is going to get starter snaps and play a ton.

Any other position will not play much year 1.  Yes, that includes Brock Bowers.

[Claymation]

I want the Jets to take the opposite of the consensus of this board. 

19 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Because Rodgers is the most important player on the "all-in" attempt, our starting LT hasn't played a full season since 1837 and we should protect Rodgers at all costs. There is no replacing Rodgers if he goes down.

But I voted trade up. Go get MHJ.

Since the Van Buren Adminstration then.

 

[LIJetsFan]

18 hours ago, August said:

The safe pick is oline and we know the Jets will make the safe pick 9 out of 10 times. So I can see a trade down happening where they draft an oline player. 

I'd argue that neither Becton nor Z. Wilson nor Mims were the safe picks.  I hope JD's river boat gambler days are behind him.    

[jamesr]

On 4/21/2024 at 3:51 AM, Jdeet said:

Odd that you don’t include the most likely outcome. WR at 10. But whatever. 

WR at 10 relies on one of MHJ / Nabers / Odunze being there - which is why I presume it wasn't given as an option. If we want one of these guys we likely have to trade up. IMHO.