Does Drafting Offensive Lineman High Really Work?

[JetNation]

For as long as people have been talking about football, the debate over whether or not early round draft picks really pan out more frequently that late round picks has been a focal point of conversation. Fans watch every year as a handful of draft picks wash out of the league or never come close to reaching their full potential. If you go back almost a decade to look at the first round of the draft, how many of those players actually lived up to their draft status? Half? A quarter? Even that?!?

However, it feels like every time the draft rolls around, offensive linemen have a reputation for being the “safe” way to go in the draft. For decades, offensive linemen have not been viewed like other positions where a team goes looking for a steal or a diamond in the rough.  Therefore, those taken after the 4th and 5th round aren’t considered to become NFL caliber starters. Not to say they will not, but the logic has been that the odds are much lower than at other positions. This is why teams that value good and quality offensive line play, draft lineman high. The logic is if they dominate at the collegiate level and have above average skills and technique, it will translate better and faster to the NFL.

Is this really true though, or have GM’s and analysts fallen prey to a rouse? Using the offensive line rankings for this season so far from footballoutsiders.com, we’ll break down three of the top passing and rushing offensive line’s starters, listing the corresponding round with each player identified as early round draft picks (rounds 1, 2 and 3), later round draft picks (rounds 4-7), and undrafted free agents (UDFA). At the end, we will be able to determine that, for this season, if drafting offensive lineman high really works.

Pass Blocking

1. Jaguars- LT Cam Robinson (starter until injured)- Round 2, Pick 34 / LT Josh Wells- undrafted / LG Andrew Norwell- undrafted / C Brandon Linder- Round 3, Pick 93 / RG A.J. Cann- Round 3, Pick 67 / RT Jermey Parnell- undrafted

Analysis- 3 early round draft picks, 3 undrafted

2. Lions- LT Taylor Decker- Round 1, Pick 16 / LG Frank Ragnow- Round 1, Pick 20 / C Graham Glasgow- Round 3, Pick 95 / RG T.J. Lang- Round 4, Pick 109 / RT Rick Wagner- Round 5, Pick 168

Analysis- 2 first round draft picks, 1 early round draft pick, 2 later round draft picks

3. Bengals– LT Cordy Glenn- Round 2, Pick 41 / LG Clint Boling- Round 4, Pick 101 / C Billy Price- Round 1, Pick 21 / RG Alex Redmond- undrafted / RT Bobby Hart- Round 7, Pick 226

Analysis: 1 first round draft pick, 1 early round draft pick, 2 later round draft picks, 1 undrafted

Run Blocking

1. Panthers– LT Chris Clark- undrafted / LG Greg Van Roten- undrafted / C Ryan Kalil- Round 2, Pick 59 / RG Trai Turner- Round 3, Pick 92 / RT Taylor Moton- Round 2, Pick 64

Analysis- 3 early round draft picks, 2 undrafted

2. Texans- LT Martinas Rankin- Round 3, Pick 80 / LG Senio Kelemete- Round 5, Pick 151 / C Nick Martin- Round 2, Pick 50 / RG Zach Fulton- Round 6, Pick 193 / RT Julie’n Davenport- Round 4, Pick 130

Analysis- 2 early round draft picks, 3 later round picks

3. Broncos- LT Garett Bolles- Round 1, Pick 20 / LG Ron Leary- undrafted / C Matt Paradis- Round 6, Pick 207 / RG Connor McGovern- Round 5, Pick 144 / RT Jared Veldheer- Round 3, Pick 69

Analysis- 1 first round draft pick, 1 early round draft pick, 2 later round draft picks, 1 undrafted

Final Analysis of Top 3 Passing and Rushing O-Lines for 2018

Total Linemen- 31

1st Round Picks- 4

2nd and 3rd Round Picks- 11

4th-7th Round Picks- 9

Undrafted- 7

As you can see, this case study proved most interesting. For the best offensive lines so far this season, only 4 of 31 players starting were first rounders, a mere thirteen percent. The majority of the offensive line starters were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, which is still fairly high. However, if you add up the 1st-3rd rounders, and then the 4th-7th rounders with the undrafted guys, it’s about split down the middle. Keep in mind this case study was only done for this current season, but from what we have seen, it looks like the mental mindset of lineman needing to be drafted high to be quality starters is off the mark. As you can see, on these teams there are almost as many undrafted starters as 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders, and very close to the amount of 2nd and 3rd rounders as well. The smallest group, surprisingly, is the 1st rounders.

Looks like we were all way off with how we approach offensive lineman. Thery’re much more like every other position than we realized. Time to rethink your draft formulas, GM’s.

The post Does Drafting Offensive Lineman High Really Work? appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

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[section314]

I went back to  the 2014 draft and looked at every year up to 2018. Only 4 guys taken in the first 4 rounds since then have made the Pro Bowl. This was according to Wikipedia. Small sample size, but may help to answer the question.

[rangerous]

imo, the college game has transitioned to pass attacks.  we don't see the mauling run blocking teams anymore so the players entering the nfl pretty much know how to pass block.  this means there is no real need to use a top 10 pick on an olineman because there are so many coming out each year.  and maybe these guys just aren't mature enough when coming out of college (physically) . they're still growing and don't reach their peak strength until age 25 or so.

not saying the jets shouldn't have been looking oline in the drafts.  imagine if they took oline with the jace amaro/devon smith/hack picks or even the hansen/stewart picks.  that's just about a whole oline right there.

[JetFaninMI]

How about drafting any? We all know draft picks are a crap shoot regardless of where they are picked. The higher the draft pick the higher the expectations. When you almost ignore the position for the amount of time Macc has this is the result. I just don't understand how you do not make the OL a priority when you draft a QB that high.  It seems like a mistake to me.

[jamesr]

7 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

How about drafting any? We all know draft picks are a crap shoot regardless of where they are picked. The higher the draft pick the higher the expectations. When you almost ignore the position for the amount of time Macc has this is the result. I just don't understand how you do not make the OL a priority when you draft a QB that high.  It seems like a mistake to me.

We've only drafted three OL total in five years ... one is a starter, one an inactive reserve, and one never made it past training camp.

The philosophy of Macc seems to be to stick to 2nd / 3rd tier FAs and hope to develop a lower draft pick from time to time.

[jetstream23]

Quote

Does Drafting Offensive Lineman High Really Work?

 

Doing things high always works!

 

[j4jets]

29 minutes ago, section314 said:

I went back to  the 2014 draft and looked at every year up to 2018. Only 4 guys taken in the first 4 rounds since then have made the Pro Bowl. This was according to Wikipedia. Small sample size, but may help to answer the question.

Lol you sure did some digging with those 4 round research. How long did your research take, 5 mins?  

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

the Jets most recently went to the AFC CG with 4 first round picks on the O-Line, followed by a second run with 3 first round picks on the O-Line  (8 total on offense)- time to rethink this analysis

[PepPep]

I think LTs need to be be big, strong, athletic, with quick feet, long arms, great awareness and the ability to be very good pass as well as run blockers. If you look at that list of top O-lines, almost all of them have LT's from the top 3 rounds. Even the Panther, who have an undrafted player playing LT, originally drafted Moton in Rd. 2 to play LT but swapped him to RT either out of need or b/c Clark simply won the position battle. 

So while you can build an O-line without investing a lot of high draft picks, LT is a position where you have to invest a higher draft pick to get top talent. If my memory serves me right, I did not look this up, D'Brick was the last LT we drafted in the top 3 rounds. That was 12 years ago. 

I know we need a Pass Rusher. But if there is a top LT on the board when we pick in round one, I am ALL FOR taking him and passing on an edge rusher.  

[Bruce Harper]

Look no further than our own last good teams.  That Jets team that went to two AFC championship teams was built on two first round picks that we took the same year:  Brick and Mangold.  They went a long way toward making our D look great too because our running game ate up so much of the clock.  I would have no objection two using our top picks on OL if good value is there.

[FidelioJet]

49 minutes ago, jamesr said:

We've only drafted three OL total in five years ... one is a starter, one an inactive reserve, and one never made it past training camp.

The philosophy of Macc seems to be to stick to 2nd / 3rd tier FAs and hope to develop a lower draft pick from time to time.

Is that right, that doesn't seem possible.  If so, that does seem like a fireable offense.

[JetPotato]

This team needs more meetings. Clearly.

[HessStation]

If there’s one sitting there and If this team doesn’t go LT in R1 I may go postal. 

[Beerfish]

Oh!  Well in that case I forgive our GM for using the least draft resources of any team in the league on the oline.  There is no doubt that Tanny was a fool for picking Dbrick and mangold when you can get olienman anywhere.

Like any position you can get starters or even pro bowlers all over the place.

Like any position you very much increase your chances of getting a decent starter to very good player the higher you draft them.

[peebag]

20 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

This team needs more meetings. Clearly.

Without coaches of course.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, jamesr said:

We've only drafted three OL total in five years ... one is a starter, one an inactive reserve, and one never made it past training camp.

The philosophy of Macc seems to be to stick to 2nd / 3rd tier FAs and hope to develop a lower draft pick from time to time.

This right here is the problem. Every draft pick is a lottery ticket. The higher the round a player is taken, typically, the better chance they have of panning out regardless of position. Many players don't work out - it's a matter of having more chances for them to work out by drafting more linemen.

We should be drafting at least 2 offensive linemen every draft IMO. If we get to a point where we have a stable of o-linemen maybe drop down to 1 per draft, but until then this needs to be a focus point.

This team ignores basic game theory on and off the field. It's a systemic issue that starts at the top. They need to hire a geek to empower people in the organization with important statistical game theory information.

[ASH1962]

Speaking only from experience, Nick & Brick sure did not work out ???

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, JetFaninMI said:

How about drafting any? We all know draft picks are a crap shoot regardless of where they are picked. The higher the draft pick the higher the expectations. When you almost ignore the position for the amount of time Macc has this is the result. I just don't understand how you do not make the OL a priority when you draft a QB that high.  It seems like a mistake to me.

First four words simply wins this thread.

[Sperm Edwards]

For the past 4 drafts we were right to stay away from using more than a pair of 5th rounders on the OL.

As a result we didn't have to endure drafting any OLmen who didn't get voted to a pro bowl as their young careers got underway.

We are a lucky fanbase. 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

Oh!  Well in that case I forgive our GM for using the least draft resources of any team in the league on the oline.  There is no doubt that Tanny was a fool for picking Dbrick and mangold when you can get olienman anywhere.

Like any position you can get starters or even pro bowlers all over the place.

Like any position you very much increase your chances of getting a decent starter to very good player the higher you draft them.

exactly, two of the best QB's to play the game were selected in the 3rd and 6th rounds, does not change draft strategy

[Augustiniak]

two years ago the jet defense gave up a lot of big pass plays so mccagnan drafts 2 safeties with the goal of stopping them.  then they sign a cb who is making the most money on the team.  they also pay big money for williamson.  all these decisions the past 2 years were made at the implicit expense of building the offensive line.  i can only deduce that mccagnan has been hesitant to overspend on offensive talent until he had a qb he wanted to build around.  but now that he does, his decisions look even worse, as does bowles' inability to coach the talent he's been given. 

 

[Integrity28]

What works is drafting players who belong on NFL rosters.

[sec101row23]

This game can be played with every position on the field.   It’s kind of a silly “study”.   Of course first rounders represent the smallest group, there are only 32 picks out of roughly 256 total draft picks.  And what percentage of total draft picks each year are first round pick?  Roughly 12.5% to 13%.  That also doesn’t represent UDFAs, which makes the percentage even lower.  

 

A better discussion would be what the success rates are of O linemen selected in each round.  Because this “study” is baseless   

 

[JetsMetsDevilsPA]

I think most of us can agree that Sam has the talent to be our FQB.  Given that fact, we need to give him the protection we need (we all know this).  I didnt look at a free agent list for offensive lineman this year but I would almost rather spend our Cap money on proven talent for the OL and take chances with the draft picks with an edge rusher and some WR help.  I think we have to build from Sam out.

 

[jeremy2020]

Well, not drafting them certainly isn't working.

[Sperm Edwards]

27 minutes ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

exactly, two of the best QB's to play the game were selected in the 3rd and 6th rounds, does not change draft strategy

+1

Every year probably half the pro bowl QBs are ones drafted after round 1.

But big deal if it was 75% of them coming from round 1; I don't see this as unique to the QB position, and take for granted that the talent pool generally gets worse as you go later in the draft no matter what position you're talking about. Never mind how many more opportunities a 1st round pick is given even when they don't pan out early on.

Maybe our draft strategy should be to always trade all our round 2-7 picks to up our 2nd rounder into round 1 every year since those are the best prospects. We'd only get to draft 2 players per season but omg they'd both be 1st rounders.

[varjet]

 

32 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

two years ago the jet defense gave up a lot of big pass plays so mccagnan drafts 2 safeties with the goal of stopping them.  then they sign a cb who is making the most money on the team.  they also pay big money for williamson.  all these decisions the past 2 years were made at the implicit expense of building the offensive line.  i can only deduce that mccagnan has been hesitant to overspend on offensive talent until he had a qb he wanted to build around.  but now that he does, his decisions look even worse, as does bowles' inability to coach the talent he's been given. 

 

From what I understand, the Jets OL spend is top 10 in the league.  Charitably, its OL grades top 20-25.  It is not bottom 7.

It is not a good OL, and is particularly not good in run blocking.  

This is a great case study by JetsNation.  What would also be interesting is to note the various currently effective OL that Mac passed over to draft garbage.  Cody Whitehair over Hack comes to mind.  

But in any event, each of our current starting OL is a different story.

Shell-a decent 4th round draft pick who will get resigned/extended for more money than we all expect.

Winters-a decent 3rd guard who was extended too late for too much money, but whose contract for the next 2 years is actually relatively cheap.

Long-a bargain basement move when Mac, with his cap space, should have signed Jensen or Richburg, or found a way to draft one in 2018.

Carpenter-an initial brilliant signing who was key to their 10-6 season, but who is now not suited to a zone scheme (like he struggled with in Seattle) and now needs to move on.  Dozier should actually be starting for him.

Beachum-virtual over the hill LT who is not great but worth the money he is paid.   He salary may have been guaranteed this year, which is why Mac did not sign Solder.  Solder is not fantastic either, but would likely be at least as good as Beachum.  

I think in the grand scheme of things, Mac should have been taking shots at OL in the middle rounds rather than flops like Stewart and Hansen and then working hard to develop them.  Dennison can do that.  But the OL is just a reflection of how messed up this team’s structure is.  

 

[JetPotato]

31 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

What works is drafting players who belong on NFL rosters.

Maybe that's the problem. We've been drafting college kids this whole time.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, varjet said:

 

From what I understand, the Jets OL spend is top 10 in the league.  Charitably, its OL grades top 20-25.  It is not bottom 7.

It is not a good OL, and is particularly not good in run blocking.  

This is a great case study by JetsNation.  What would also be interesting is to note the various currently effective OL that Mac passed over to draft garbage.  Cody Whitehair over Hack comes to mind.  

But in any event, each of our current starting OL is a different story.

Shell-a decent 4th round draft pick who will get resigned/extended for more money than we all expect.

Winters-a decent 3rd guard who was extended too late for too much money, but whose contract for the next 2 years is actually relatively cheap.

Long-a bargain basement move when Mac, with his cap space, should have signed Jensen or Richburg, or found a way to draft one in 2018.

Carpenter-an initial brilliant signing who was key to their 10-6 season, but who is now not suited to a zone scheme (like he struggled with in Seattle) and now needs to move on.  Dozier should actually be starting for him.

Beachum-virtual over the hill LT who is not great but worth the money he is paid.   He salary may have been guaranteed this year, which is why Mac did not sign Solder.  Solder is not fantastic either, but would likely be at least as good as Beachum.  

I think in the grand scheme of things, Mac should have been taking shots at OL in the middle rounds rather than flops like Stewart and Hansen and then working hard to develop them.  Dennison can do that.  But the OL is just a reflection of how messed up this team’s structure is.  

 

if you look at any one player on the offense (besides darnold) individually, it's ok.  but the problem is that THE ENTIRE OFFENSIVE ROSTER is comprised of low round picks, castoffs and guys who would not play on other teams.  Go around the league and you will find real good players on other offenses, mixed in with guys like shell or winters or beachum or powell.  the problem is that half the jets roster is pretty much garbage and the GM still took a DL in the 3rd round. 

[maury77]

41 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

This game can be played with every position on the field.   It’s kind of a silly “study”.   Of course first rounders represent the smallest group, there are only 32 picks out of roughly 256 total draft picks.  And what percentage of total draft picks each year are first round pick?  Roughly 12.5% to 13%.  That also doesn’t represent UDFAs, which makes the percentage even lower.  

 

A better discussion would be what the success rates are of O linemen selected in each round.  Because this “study” is baseless   

 

I remember years ago, @jason423 posted an article on his old site that showed early round offensive lineman have a comparatively lower bust rate versus other positions. Unfortunately, I can't find the article anymore. 

As to the original post, the formula for the teams that were described seems to be having 2 high picks on the line along with 3 mid-round/late round/undrafted choices. Right now, we have 1 highly drafted guy (Carpenter was a 1st rounder I believe), a couple of mid rounders and one undrafted player in Beachum. 

[sec101row23]

2 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I remember years ago, @jason423 posted an article on his old site that showed early round offensive lineman have a comparatively lower bust rate versus other positions. Unfortunately, I can't find the article anymore. 

As to the original post, the formula for the teams that were described seems to be having 2 high picks on the line along with 3 mid-round/late round/undrafted choices. Right now, we have 1 highly drafted guy (Carpenter was a 1st rounder I believe), a couple of mid rounders and one undrafted player in Beachum. 

Agreed.  I think because O linemen can be moved around a bit, it makes their bust rate lower.   For instance, you draft a guy in the first to be a LT but, he’s not as agile as you thought you can move him to RT or LG and he can have a nice career.   There are more options to move guys to different positions.  Where as you draft a WR, he doesn’t work out, he’s gone.  No other options.  

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, jamesr said:

We've only drafted three OL total in five years ... one is a starter, one an inactive reserve, and one never made it past training camp.

The philosophy of Macc seems to be to stick to 2nd / 3rd tier FAs and hope to develop a lower draft pick from time to time.

 

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Is that right, that doesn't seem possible.  If so, that does seem like a fireable offense.

It might be, but I don't think it is accurate when looking at what to pin on Maccagnan.  As far as I remember, Maccagnan has only drafted 2 offensive linemen.  Shell and Harrison (the one that never made it out of camp).  The year before, (2014 or year 5) they drafted Dozier, but that was Idzik. 

Nobody should be complaining about Dozier because they had just drafted 3 offensive linemen in 2013 (WInters, Aboushi and Campbell).  Campbell was a converted(ing) DT.  Xaverian's own Aboushi got 8 starts for Tom Cable in Seattle last year, but is currently out of the league and Winters starts.  You can't keep restocking with lower round guys without letting them develop. The problem is that we are paying WInters like a plus starter and not restocking at all.

[jamesr]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Maybe our draft strategy should be to always trade all our round 2-7 picks to up our 2nd rounder into round 1 every year since those are the best prospects. We'd only get to draft 2 players per season but omg they'd both be 1st rounders.

Sperm Tannenbaum!

[jamesr]

2018 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
2017 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
2016 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
5	Brandon Shell	T
2015 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
5	Jarvis Harrison	G
2014 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
4	Dakota Dozier	T
2013 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
3	Brian Winters	OG
5	Oday Aboushi	OT
6	William Campbell	G
2012 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
6	Robert T. Griffin	G
2011 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
2010 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
2	Vladimir Ducasse	T
2009 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
6	Matt Slauson	G
2008 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
7	Nate Garner	T
2007 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
6	Jacob Bender	T
2006 - NEW YORK JETS
RD	PLAYER	POSITION
1	D'Brickashaw Ferguson	T
1	Nick Mangold	C

 

Here's all our OL draft picks from Brick & Mangold onward.

Draft rounds as follows : 6, 7, 6, 2, 6, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5

The 3 and the one of the 5s are still with us and playing, the 4 is a backup who is usually inactive on game day. Macc has spent two 5th rounders (one of which actually cost us a future 4th rounder) on OL in his 4 drafts. In that same span we've taken 4 DL (for a team that plays a 3-man front), 4 LB, 6 DBs (insert lame Safety reference here), 3 QBs, 2 TEs, 4 WR, 2 RB and a punter.

[#27TheDominator]

5 hours ago, maury77 said:

I remember years ago, @jason423 posted an article on his old site that showed early round offensive lineman have a comparatively lower bust rate versus other positions. Unfortunately, I can't find the article anymore. 

As to the original post, the formula for the teams that were described seems to be having 2 high picks on the line along with 3 mid-round/late round/undrafted choices. Right now, we have 1 highly drafted guy (Carpenter was a 1st rounder I believe), a couple of mid rounders and one undrafted player in Beachum. 

 

4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  I think because O linemen can be moved around a bit, it makes their bust rate lower.   For instance, you draft a guy in the first to be a LT but, he’s not as agile as you thought you can move him to RT or LG and he can have a nice career.   There are more options to move guys to different positions.  Where as you draft a WR, he doesn’t work out, he’s gone.  No other options.  

It also depends how you consider bust rate.  What did Jason use?  Games played or playing out their first contract? I think as 101/23 says, these guys get multiple chances.